Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, July 23rd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-24 01:20:49

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Iwakuma	SEA	TOR	251	3.76	3.90	1.17	60.0%	19.8%	4.8%	1.29	1.26
Dickey	TOR	SEA	337	3.98	4.76	1.23	47.6%	15.3%	7.4%	1.28	1.17
Nola	PHI	PIT	179.2	4.06	3.38	1.22		23.7%	5.7%	1.05	1.87
Glasnow	PIT	PHI
Samardzija	SFG	NYY	336.1	4.63	4.21	1.26	60.0%	18.2%	5.7%	1.23	1.11
Nova	NYY	SFG	180	5.00	4.28	1.37	25.0%	16.3%	6.8%	1.45	1.75
Tomlin	CLE	BAL	173.1	3.22	3.99	1.00	23.1%	18.6%	2.9%	1.82	0.99
Gausman	BAL	CLE	205.2	4.16	3.73	1.25	37.5%	22.0%	5.7%	1.44	1.19
Scherzer	WAS	SDP	363.1	2.85	2.75	0.93	60.0%	31.3%	4.8%	1.19	0.78
Ray	ARI	CIN	232	3.96	3.92	1.41	33.3%	23.7%	9.0%	0.85	1.33
Sampson	CIN	ARI	68.2	6.29	5.03	1.83		17.4%	12.0%	1.57	0.93
Lackey	CHC	MIL	342.2	3.13	3.85	1.17	57.9%	21.7%	6.5%	0.95	1.25
Davies	MIL	CHC	126.2	3.77	4.15	1.21		19.2%	7.5%	0.99	1.74
Boyd	DET	CWS	97.2	6.45	4.63	1.47		18.2%	8.0%	2.03	0.75
Sale	CWS	DET	341.2	3.32	2.92	1.06	64.3%	29.2%	5.1%	1.05	1.16
Weaver	LAA	HOU	266.2	4.79	5.09	1.30	52.4%	13.3%	5.4%	1.52	0.69
McHugh	HOU	LAA	311.2	4.01	3.96	1.34	42.9%	20.7%	6.6%	0.92	1.26
Nolasco	MIN	BOS	152	5.45	4.31	1.44	16.7%	18.3%	5.9%	1.12	1.12
Price	BOS	MIN	350.1	3.16	3.30	1.13	52.4%	25.5%	5.2%	0.85	1.22
Degrom	NYM	MIA	293	2.49	3.18	1.00	50.0%	26.3%	5.3%	0.77	1.37
Fernandez	MIA	NYM	178.1	2.67	2.57	1.07	75.0%	34.7%	6.6%	0.61	1.36
Maeda	LAD	STL	108	3.25	3.67	1.12		25.6%	7.3%	0.92	1.15
Leake	STL	LAD	309	3.82	4.02	1.17	45.0%	16.3%	5.2%	1.08	1.96
Hamels	TEX	KCR	332.1	3.41	3.68	1.22	58.8%	23.9%	7.9%	1.03	1.53
Ventura	KCR	TEX	264.2	4.42	4.11	1.34	44.4%	20.3%	8.7%	0.92	1.74
Wisler	ATL	COL	220.2	4.69	4.79	1.39		16.4%	7.5%	1.39	0.83
Anderson	COL	ATL	42	3.43	3.50	1.26		19.9%	5.1%	0.86	2.68
Smyly	TBR	OAK	172	4.66	3.60	1.28	50.0%	25.8%	6.7%	1.67	0.76
Graveman	OAK	TBR	217.1	4.14	4.52	1.41		15.2%	7.4%	1.16	1.77

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. NYM) – He just keeps upping the ante. Fern struck out 14 Phillies in his last start, tying a season high and marking the sixth time in his last 12 turns that the right-handed powerhouse struck out 11 or more batters. His K rate is the best in the majors, fueling these standout starts that result in 30 or more points on DraftKings half of the times that he takes the mound. The Marlins have been more careful with his pitch counts lately, as he has thrown more than 100 pitches in just two of his last eight starts, topping out at 108 throws in a single game. The other time that Fern struck out 14 batters in a game this season was actually the last time that he faced the Mets, who gathered just four hits, no walks and zero runs against him in 7.0 frames.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

I almost went with two All-In candidates today due to the incredible strength of this slate. The other All-In pitcher would have been…

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. SD) – I hate to say it, but he’s just about due for a blow-up start. It’s been four turns since he gave up five to Milwaukee; five games before that he surrendered five to the Cardinals; four games before that he gave up seven tallies to the Cubs. Scherzer has given up one or zero runs in the other seven of his last eight starts, and assuming that Scherzer is not on some cycle-of-suck that causes him to hemorrhage runs once a months, one can expect his usual seven frames of high-strikeout, low-run fun. The key difference between his current hot streak and those prior is that Scherzer is not giving up home runs, and he just pulled off his first back-to-back homerless starts of the season. After giving up 20 bombs in his first 16 games, Scherzer has given up just one over his last four starts.

Chris Sale CHW (vs. DET) – Things don’t get much more disparate than Sale’s last two starts. In his most recent turns, Sale gave up just one hit and zero runs across 8.0 innings against the Mariners; in the start prior, Sale had coughed up ten hits and eight runs to the lowly Braves in 5.0 innings of work. The Atlanta game followed a five-run outing against the Astros, and though his “fewer Ks more outs” approach has been a bit overblown – he still has nearly a K-per-inning this season – the relatively-modest K count is more acceptable when he’s chewing innings and throwing zeroes on the scoreboard. He’ll face a familiar foe tonight, taking on a Tigers club that scored seven runs against him in 13.1 innings (4.72 ERA) across two starts in the first half of June.

David Price BOS (vs. MIN) – Well, that was weird. Price entered his last start having struck out exactly ten batters in each of his previous three starts, but instead of going on another strikeout binge the southpaw was bombarded by balls in play, surrendering 11 hits while striking out just one batter in 5.2 innings of work, though I suppose that’s progress considering that he gave up six runs in each of the last two games that he played against those damn Yankees. He hasn’t walked more than one batter in a ballgame since early June and today will take on the Twins for the first time this season. The Twins have been struggling mightily since the break, and over the last seven days they have just a .239 wOBA and .553 OPS as a team with a K rate of 26.0 percent, each of which qualifies as the bottom quartile of the league over that span.

Jacob DeGrom NYM (at MIA) – DeGrom is stepping up at just the right time for the Mets, who are dealing with injury issues up and down the roster right now. He dismantled the Phillies in his last start, twirling a one-hit shutout with seven strikeouts and just one walk. It was his eighth quality start in his last nine turns and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game since late May. DeGrom has been particularly effective over his last four turns, posting a 0.93 ERA and 27:5 K:BB ratio over 29.0 innings against a mix of opponents that included the high-powered Cubs and the recently-surging Marlins in addition to NL East doormats Philadelphia and Atlanta. He gave up two runs over seven innings against the Marlins in his last start before the break and DeGrom has struck out six or more batters while walking two or fewer in eight consecutive starts, a streak that he will seek to continue tonight in Miami.

Cole Hamels TEX (at KC) – Too much good stuff. We don’t typically see this many Raise-worthy options on the same slate, but Hamels is the sixth pitcher on today’s list to meet or exceed that threshold. The southpaw recently went through a bit of a rough patch, giving up five runs in less than five innings in each of his last two starts before the All-Star break as the Twins worked nine walks and ten hits off the lefty in just 8.1 combined innings. He came back strong in his first start after the break, though, giving up just one unearned run across 8.0 innings against the Cubs, striking out seven and earning the win to take his record to 10-2. He hasn’t played the Royals yet this season but is well-poised to get back on a winning streak following a month of June that included a clean 4-0 record and a 1.41 ERA over six started and 41.7 innings pitched, tossing 7.0 or more innings in five of those turns.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Iwakuma	0.322	3.47	0.296	4.02	0.260	0.785	0.286	4.03	0.253	0.01	19.8%
Dickey	0.312	3.81	0.322	4.12	0.250	0.742	0.258	4.77	0.243	0.00	15.3%
Nola	0.321	4.42	0.284	3.80	0.262	0.730	0.308	3.51	0.25	0.01	23.7%
Glasnow					0.244	0.686
Samardzija	0.355	5.72	0.292	3.69	0.248	0.729	0.294	4.22	0.262	0.00	18.2%
Nova	0.376	5.33	0.316	4.73	0.265	0.741	0.294	4.90	0.27	0.00	16.3%
Tomlin	0.254	2.48	0.335	3.86	0.263	0.775	0.236	4.72	0.231	0.01	18.6%
Gausman	0.278	3.04	0.364	5.29	0.255	0.742	0.298	4.16	0.257	0.01	22.0%
Jackson	0.269	2.10	0.299	4.43	0.246	0.720	0.243	4.35	0.216	0.00	16.9%
Scherzer	0.294	2.97	0.227	2.72	0.239	0.683	0.260	3.04	0.2	0.01	31.3%
Ray	0.302	3.13	0.338	4.27	0.246	0.713	0.332	3.66	0.26	0.01	23.7%
Sampson	0.396	5.40	0.369	6.86	0.265	0.741	0.333	5.51	0.295	0.00	17.4%
Lackey	0.314	3.09	0.276	3.15	0.253	0.708	0.287	3.63	0.239	0.00	21.7%
Davies	0.315	2.91	0.289	4.50	0.247	0.739	0.275	4.02	0.239	0.01	19.2%
Boyd	0.416	9.13	0.359	5.64	0.247	0.677	0.304	5.60	0.284	0.00	18.2%
Sale	0.274	3.17	0.282	3.35	0.272	0.786	0.296	3.11	0.225	0.01	29.2%
Weaver	0.340	4.48	0.341	5.09	0.250	0.750	0.281	5.07	0.272	0.00	13.3%
McHugh	0.312	4.21	0.329	3.84	0.256	0.719	0.323	3.65	0.269	0.00	20.7%
Nolasco	0.314	4.17	0.369	6.64	0.273	0.772	0.338	4.00	0.292	0.00	18.3%
Price	0.296	2.87	0.284	3.26	0.257	0.742	0.304	3.00	0.239	0.00	25.5%
Degrom	0.273	2.85	0.236	2.10	0.262	0.703	0.271	2.85	0.212	0.01	26.3%
Fernandez	0.319	3.25	0.208	2.20	0.241	0.713	0.328	2.14	0.217	0.01	34.7%
Maeda	0.291	2.61	0.264	3.77	0.264	0.763	0.282	3.43	0.223	0.01	25.6%
Leake	0.314	4.08	0.286	3.54	0.247	0.732	0.273	4.07	0.249	0.00	16.3%
Hamels	0.276	2.09	0.305	3.79	0.276	0.742	0.289	3.78	0.235	0.00	23.9%
Ventura	0.321	5.12	0.305	3.71	0.258	0.739	0.299	3.99	0.25	0.00	20.3%
Wisler	0.384	5.61	0.286	3.87	0.271	0.780	0.292	4.81	0.267	0.00	16.4%
Anderson			0.327	3.90	0.236	0.644	0.315	3.44	0.265	0.03	19.9%
Smyly	0.289	4.38	0.340	4.73	0.256	0.721	0.307	4.29	0.254	0.01	25.8%
Graveman	0.343	3.64	0.324	4.64	0.241	0.703	0.302	4.61	0.275	0.00	15.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

John Lackey CHC (at MIL) – The 37-year-old is having a career season, with the highest K rate and the lowest WHIP of his career by a healthy margin, and his trigger-happy opponent will likely keep the strikeouts flowing. However, if not for his facing the Brewers – a team that has grown fond of giving away season-high strikeout performances to opposing pitchers – then Lackey would likely drop in the rankings due to his recent struggles. From May 1 to June 20, Lackey rattled off ten consecutive quality starts with a 70:18 K:BB in 68.2 innings and just 43 hits allowed, but the right-hander has given up four or more runs in four of his last five starts, including seven runs against the Marlins and six more against the Pirates, with the latter game including a season-high five walks. He limited the Brewers to one run over six frames back in mid-May, albeit with a modest five strikeouts, and his owners will hope that any additional runs will be offset by extra strikeouts this evening. He just missed the Raise group today.

Kenta Maeda LAD (at STL) – Maeda has found a name for himself by spinning scoreless frames in unlikely places, such as his six shutout innings in Colorado back in April, and he has allowed one or zero earned runs in 10 of his 19 starts this season. He’ll have to pull another rabbit out of his hat to pull the same trick against the Cardinals, who as a team haven’t scored fewer than two runs in a game since June 17, a stretch of 30 consecutive games with multiple tallies on the scoreboard. Maeda has been playing performance hopscotch lately, jumping between shorter, run-filled starts and six-inning turns with one run allowed. His last start was a rough one as he gave up five runs over 4.1 frames, this following his best start of the year, in which he struck out a season-high 13 Padres (his previous high in a game was 9 Ks) and allowed just two hits over 7.0 innings. If the hopscotch continues then Maeda is in store for an excellent start, but his formidable opponent casts a dark shadow on his potential performance.

Mike Leake STL (vs. LAD) – Leake has tallied 21 strikeouts across 13.0 innings in his last two starts, a total that exceeds his K count of the previous five games combined after topping out at just six Ks in any of his previous 17 starts. His free-swinging opponents have certainly helped buffer the strikeouts, with Leake taking advantage of the Brewers and the Padres in the single-run ballgames, but he has also made an alteration to his arsenal that might be playing a role. Leake rarely uncorked his slider in those first 17 games, tossing it just six-percent of the time and tossing single-digit slides in 16 of them, but he has greatly upped the ante in his last two starts, with a season-high 29 sliders thrown against the Brewers two starts ago and 14 more (his second-highest total of the season) tossed in his last start, with the pitch finishing off more than half of his strikeouts across the two games. Perhaps it was a fluke, but Leake’s slider usage deserves to be monitored to see if he might have made an adjustment that will last for multiple starts.

Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. CLE) – Gausman flies under the radar, but he has been a serviceable pitcher this season who becomes more enticing when considering that his biggest hiccups have come against the formidable offense of division-opponent Boston; if you selectively take those Red Sox games off his ledger, then Gausman has a 3.31 ERA on the season. The walks have virtually disappeared from his stat sheet, with two or fewer free passes in each of his 16 starts this season and just three walks given away over his last four turns. I he could cure his bouts with gopheritis – 16 homers allowed in 93.1 innings – then Gausman could make the leap to a higher tier of fantasy starters, but the 1.5 HR/9 that he’s giving up so far in 2016 represents the third season out of his four in the bigs that Gausman has given up 1.4 HR/9 or more.

Collin McHugh HOU (vs. LAA)

Kendall Graveman OAK (vs. TB)

Drew Smyly TB (at OAK)

Robbie Ray ARI (at CIN)

Josh Tomlin CLE (at BAL)

Yordano Ventura KC (vs. TEX)

Zach Davies MIL (vs. CHC)

Matt Boyd DET (at CHW)

Edwin Jackson SD (at WAS)