Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, October 1st

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Miley BAL NYY 353.2 4.89 4.26 1.39 33.3% 18.2% 7.4% 1.04 1.59
Tanaka NYY BAL 353.2 3.26 3.61 1.04 66.7% 21.5% 4.5% 1.20 1.48
Happ TOR BOS 360.2 3.39 4.00 1.21 30.8% 21.1% 6.7% 0.95 1.22
Rodriguez BOS TOR 223.2 4.23 4.30 1.29 19.8% 7.5% 1.17 0.97
Kershaw LAD SFG 374.2 1.95 2.26 0.82 66.7% 33.4% 3.7% 0.53 1.73
Suarez SFG LAD 84 4.29 4.65 1.31 15.2% 7.3% 1.18 1.53
Chen MIA WAS 309.2 3.98 4.05 1.24 31.6% 19.2% 5.0% 1.42 1.03
Roark WAS MIA 315.1 3.40 4.23 1.22 52.6% 18.3% 7.3% 0.97 1.58
Adleman CIN CHC 64.2 3.90 4.85 1.18 16.2% 6.8% 1.81 0.85
Bauer CLE KCR 360 4.40 4.27 1.31 38.5% 21.5% 9.6% 1.08 1.23
Volquez KCR CLE 384.2 4.42 4.52 1.42 50.0% 17.2% 8.6% 0.91 1.60
Kuhl PIT STL 65.2 4.25 4.52 1.28 17.3% 6.9% 0.96 1.33
Garcia STL PIT 301.1 3.70 3.72 1.23 28.6% 19.7% 7.0% 0.96 2.45
Colon NYM PHI 381.1 3.80 4.22 1.23 42.1% 16.3% 3.5% 1.13 1.21
Klein PHI NYM 31.1 7.18 4.61 1.79 18.0% 10.0% 1.72 0.93
Zimmermann DET ATL 303 4.07 4.13 1.26 52.6% 18.1% 4.9% 1.10 1.15
Blair ATL DET 64 8.02 5.85 1.73 12.0% 11.0% 1.83 1.07
Santiago MIN CWS 356.1 4.22 4.78 1.32 16.7% 19.5% 9.6% 1.57 0.62
Shields CWS MIN 377 4.80 4.39 1.47 42.9% 20.8% 9.7% 1.69 1.18
Odorizzi TBR TEX 351 3.56 4.11 1.19 36.8% 21.2% 6.9% 1.18 0.86
Lewis TEX TBR 314.2 4.40 4.60 1.20 11.8% 16.2% 5.3% 1.26 0.75
Peralta MIL COL 230.1 4.92 4.64 1.55 47.4% 14.8% 7.9% 1.29 1.81
Anderson COL MIL 114.1 3.54 3.85 1.29 20.7% 5.9% 0.94 1.77
Richard SDP ARI 105.2 3.32 3.91 1.48 13.3% 7.3% 0.51 3.72
Bradley ARI SDP 170.1 5.28 4.66 1.60 20.1% 11.5% 1.00 1.66
McHugh HOU LAA 380.2 4.18 3.97 1.36 42.9% 21.1% 6.5% 1.04 1.19
Chacin LAA HOU 163.2 4.78 4.44 1.45 18.2% 18.5% 8.9% 0.99 1.59
Cotton OAK SEA 25 1.44 4.52 0.68 17.6% 3.3% 1.08 0.65
Iwakuma SEA OAK 325 3.79 4.04 1.21 60.0% 19.0% 5.0% 1.27 1.26


ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at SF) – It took all season to bring him back to life, but Clayton Kershaw is finally ready to be fully unfurled in front of the crowd in San Francisco tonight. The Dodgers have let him go as deep as 91 pitches in recent starts and will want to see if he can ramp up a bit higher tonight in his final dress rehearsal before it’s time for playoff baseball. The composite numbers since he came off the disabled list are vintage Kershaw: a 0.86 ERA and 23:1 K:BB in 21.0 innings, as opponents are hitting a paltry .164/.176/.233 off the southpaw. Tonight’s matchup will be more about keeping Kersh on track than it will be about beating the rival Giants, but consider it a bonus that Kersh can deal a serious blow to the Gigantes’ playoff chances with a win tonight at ATT Park.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jon Lester CHC (at CIN) – Lester would receive serious consideration for the All-In tier if not for the existence of Kershaw on today’s slate, and Lester’s value in today’s pitcher pool is much closer to the top than it is to the Call list. Typically there would be a handful of Raise-worthy pitchers to fill this space, but there is a gulf that exists between Lester and the next most valuable arm on the slate. That said, Lester probably deserves top-tier placement, as he has an 11-game streak of quality starts going into tonight’s matchup, and that stretch of a dozen turns Lester has compiled a miniscule 0.96 ERA and excellent 73:13 K:BB in 75.1 innings pitched. The ERA is somehow more impressive when looking at just his last six starts, with a 0.41 mark in 43.2 innings since the end of August. It might just make more sense to have Kershaw and Lester both in the All-In category while leaving the Raise section blank.


Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Miley 0.296 3.90 0.343 5.18 0.255 0.729 0.314 4.12 0.272 0.00 18.2%
Tanaka 0.286 3.43 0.278 3.09 0.258 0.768 0.259 3.72 0.226 95.00 21.5%
Happ 0.291 3.31 0.300 3.42 0.276 0.777 0.291 3.67 0.245 91.57 21.1%
Rodriguez 0.339 4.32 0.302 4.20 0.265 0.787 0.283 4.19 0.246 93.90 19.8%
Kershaw 0.201 1.75 0.226 2.01 0.260 0.708 0.271 1.87 0.189 0.01 33.4%
Suarez 0.324 3.51 0.352 5.02 0.254 0.751 0.281 4.63 0.258 62.41 15.2%
Chen 0.277 2.84 0.342 4.30 0.262 0.769 0.294 4.29 0.263 93.23 19.2%
Roark 0.314 2.99 0.292 3.75 0.259 0.699 0.279 4.11 0.244 69.12 18.3%
Lester 0.258 2.67 0.280 2.86 0.244 0.703 0.279 3.13 0.222 0.00 24.9%
Adleman 0.330 4.23 0.337 3.65 0.250 0.744 0.242 5.49 0.24 84.83 16.2%
Bauer 0.309 4.24 0.316 4.55 0.261 0.716 0.283 4.21 0.238 90.23 21.5%
Volquez 0.322 4.20 0.325 4.65 0.256 0.742 0.305 4.19 0.264 95.93 17.2%
Kuhl 0.363 4.60 0.288 3.96 0.259 0.756 0.291 4.12 0.256 81.62 17.3%
Garcia 0.293 3.21 0.304 3.83 0.258 0.725 0.289 3.85 0.247 85.29 19.7%
Colon 0.323 3.72 0.304 3.88 0.242 0.688 0.299 3.92 0.27 83.30 16.3%
Klein 0.429 6.46 0.338 7.88 0.243 0.717 0.347 5.44 0.306 0.00 18.0%
Zimmermann 0.328 4.39 0.304 3.75 0.257 0.699 0.305 3.93 0.268 93.02 18.1%
Blair 0.435 6.54 0.347 9.46 0.269 0.752 0.305 6.49 0.298 0.00 12.0%
Santiago 0.306 3.10 0.331 4.55 0.255 0.701 0.257 5.08 0.234 95.78 19.5%
Shields 0.378 4.58 0.336 4.99 0.246 0.714 0.303 5.17 0.266 0.00 20.8%
Odorizzi 0.268 2.64 0.333 4.47 0.259 0.748 0.272 3.99 0.235 99.53 21.2%
Lewis 0.315 4.30 0.307 4.52 0.245 0.721 0.274 4.39 0.252 94.69 16.2%
Peralta 0.379 4.95 0.356 4.90 0.274 0.790 0.329 4.83 0.3 0.00 14.8%
Anderson 0.270 1.63 0.332 4.15 0.244 0.720 0.318 3.59 0.266 94.37 20.7%
Richard 0.275 2.14 0.337 3.88 0.267 0.775 0.322 3.75 0.285 27.91 13.3%
Bradley 0.371 4.83 0.316 5.71 0.237 0.681 0.327 4.44 0.271 0.00 20.1%
McHugh 0.315 4.11 0.334 4.25 0.256 0.721 0.326 3.78 0.272 98.44 21.1%
Chacin 0.347 5.63 0.307 3.98 0.250 0.745 0.311 4.21 0.267 0.00 18.5%
Cotton 0.084 0.00 0.278 2.51 0.250 0.735 0.159 3.78 0.159 0.04 17.6%
Iwakuma 0.316 3.72 0.310 3.86 0.248 0.702 0.292 4.09 0.259 91.81 19.0%


CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Tanner Roark WAS (vs. MIA) – As alluded to in the previous section, it’s a weird slate today, with just the one clear all-in candidate and the one clear raise option followed by a whole lot of sketch. Roark’s excellent run prevention this season is incongruent with his peripheral stats, resulting in a 3.79 FIP that’s almost a full run higher than his 2.86 ERA. His K counts typically fall in a mundane range of three-to-six strikeouts in each contests and yet he has walk counts that are nearly as high, and for the month of September Roark has an unimpressive 29:14 K:BB across five starts and 29.0 innings pitched. He’s coming off a rough five-run outing against the Diamondbacks in which Roark was yanked before the start of the fifth inning, but his previous turn was a successful game against these Marlins, surrendering one run on three hits and three walks over 7.0 frames. He’ll likely need to keep the scoreboard clear once again for his DFS owners to turn a profit on his $9100 price tag at DraftKings.

Jake Odorizzi TB (at TEX) – The right-hander has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 12 of his past 13 starts, but the one exception was a seven-run clunker at the start of September against the Orioles, a game that single-handedly added 0.30 runs to his ERA for the season. The strikeouts were once a defining characteristic of Odorizzi’s profile, but he hasn’t been missing many bats this month, topping out at just four strikeouts in any one game and totaling just 12 Ks in 12.0 innings of work. He hasn’t punched out more than seven batters in a game since June, but the baseballs have been flying out of the ballpark with five homers allowed in his 20 frames this month.

Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (vs. TOR) – Going into his last game, Rodriguez had not topped seven strikeouts in any game since July and had never experienced an outing with double-digit strikeouts in his career, but he turned the world on its head with a 13-K performance against the Rays that was even more remarkable considering that he pitched just 5.1 innings – he was responsible for 16 outs, 13 of which came via the strikeout. The performance was a complete outlier when looking at his career game log, and it is likely that tonight’s statline will look much more similar to what he posted when Rodriguez faced the Blue Jays three turns ago: three runs allowed (two earned) on four hits and two walks, with five strikeouts over 6.0 innings pitched. Consider that a baseline, but be warned that there is a precipitous downside that might reveal itself in tonight’s contest, one that the Red Sox can ill afford in a game filled with playoff implications.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. OAK) – Iwakuma had a rocky start two games ago against the Jays, giving up six runs (five earned) on eight hits – including two homers – in just 3.1 frames, but his September has otherwise been strong, with quality starts in his other four turns this month. His strikeouts appear to be severely capped, as Iwakuma hasn’t topped five Ks in any of his last nine games, a stretch that includes just 31 strikeouts over 50.2 innings pitched. The run prevention has been solid at times yet never clean enough to keep zeroes in the runs column, and his expected value is further muted by a pitch-count that has stayed at 92 pitches or under in five of his last six starts.

Jharel Cotton OAK (at SEA) – Cotton has made four starts in the major leagues, and in each turn he has given up exactly one earned run and pitched between 5.2-to-7.0 innings. Three of the tallies have scored via solo homers, but opposing batters have otherwise struggled to break through against the young right-hander, and he has allowed just 14 hits through his first four games and 25.0 innings pitched. The K counts have been modest, not yet topping a half-dozen strikeouts and managing just 16 total punchouts his four starts, but he has counterbalanced the modest K counts with a strict avoidance of free passes – Cotton has walked just three batters so far this season and has gone consecutive starts without issuing a single base on balls.

Collin McHugh HOU (at LAA) – The right-hander has struggled all season, but he is hitting a late stride in the season’s final month that is taking some of the sting off his full-season statline. Over his last four starts, McHugh has just a 1.82 ERA with only 16 hits allowed in 24.2 innings, including a K:BB of 23:10 over that span. He has only given up one home run across those four games and has struck out at least five batters in each contest, though his outings have been marred by multiple walks in each game. McHugh hasn’t faced the Angels since July 23, a game that kicked off restructuring of his control profile, as he had given up 13 walks across the four games leading up to the start but then went on an eight-game string with just seven total walks allowed. The walks have been back in full effect this month, but if he keeps runs off the scoreboard then the Astros will be happy with the exchange.

Trevor Bauer CLE (at KC) – The 2016 campaign started out on such a promising note for Bauer, particularly after the Indians placed him back in the starting rotation back in May – from May 5th to July 1st, Bauer compiled a 2.59 ERA across 12 games (11 starts), with a solid K;BB of 69:26 in 80.0 innings of work, spiking the occasional large K count while keeping the walks within league-average range, the latter being something that has been a struggle for Bauer throughout his career. He has been a wreck since the start of July, however, and in his last 15 starts Bauer has a rough 5.58 ERA with an unimpressive 72:35 K:BB. Bauer has coughed up four or more runs in each of his last four starts, a span that has included a brutal ERA of 7.99 with five homers allowed and an egregious total of four HBPs.

Archie Bradley ARI (vs. SD)

Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at WAS)

J.A. Happ TOR (at BOS)

Colby Lewis TEX (vs. TB)

Hector Santiago MIN (at CHW)

Clayton Richard SD (at ARI)

Tyler Skaggs LAA (vs. HOU)

Tim Adleman CIN (vs. CHC)

Wade Miley BAL (at NYY)

Ty Blach SF (vs. LAD)

Luis Severino NYY (vs. BAL)

James Shields CHW (vs. MIN)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Edinson Volquez KC (vs, CLE)

Jordan Zimmermann DET (at ATL)

Aaron Blair ATL (vs. DET)

Wily Peralta MIL (at COL)

Jeff Hoffman COL (vs. MIL)

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About the Author

DougThorburn
Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn)

Doug Thorburn’s work can be found elsewhere at Baseball Prospectus and Rotowire, and he is also the co-host of the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast. Thorburn’s expertise lies on the mound, where he tackles the world of pitching with an emphasis on mechanical evaluation. He spent five years at the National Pitching Association working under pitching coach Tom House, where Thorburn ran the hi-speed motion analysis program in addition to serving as an instructor. Thorburn and House wrote the 2009 book, “Arm Action, Arm Path, and the Perfect Pitch: Building a Million Dollar Arm,” using data from hi-speed motion analysis to tackle conventional wisdom in baseball.