Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, August 11th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-12 01:13:21

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Shipley	ARI	NYM	17.1	4.15	6.04	1.62		13.2%	14.5%	2.08	1.37
Syndergaard	NYM	ARI	279.1	2.96	2.87	1.10		28.7%	5.2%	0.87	1.61
Friedrich	SDP	PIT	139.2	4.96	4.59	1.58		17.1%	9.5%	0.90	1.38
Taillon	PIT	SDP	52	3.29	3.26	1.15		20.5%	2.9%	1.21	2.39
Fister	HOU	MIN	238	3.78	4.69	1.33	58.3%	14.8%	6.9%	1.13	1.32
Berrios	MIN	HOU	26	8.31	4.32	1.69		24.2%	10.8%	2.42	0.77
Bettis	COL	TEX	248.1	4.71	4.12	1.43		18.5%	7.4%	0.98	1.88
Harrell	TEX	COL	39	3.46	5.26	1.38		16.7%	11.9%	0.69	1.21
Garza	MIL	ATL	202.1	5.47	4.73	1.56	35.0%	14.9%	8.3%	1.29	1.51
Tillman	BAL	OAK	317	4.32	4.56	1.32	42.9%	18.2%	8.8%	1.02	1.18
Triggs	OAK	BAL	33.2	5.35	3.43	1.57		22.2%	7.8%	1.07	2.29
Chacin	LAA	CLE	124	4.86	4.41	1.42	18.2%	18.3%	8.9%	1.09	1.63
Kluber	CLE	LAA	373	3.38	3.15	1.03	57.1%	26.9%	5.3%	0.80	1.25
Pineda	NYY	BOS	286	4.72	3.20	1.28	75.0%	25.2%	4.7%	1.32	1.48
Rodriguez	BOS	NYY	179.1	4.52	4.36	1.38		18.6%	7.5%	1.25	1.08
Martinez	STL	CHC	311	3.13	3.71	1.25		22.5%	8.5%	0.69	2.15
Lester	CHC	STL	340.1	3.17	3.38	1.11	65.0%	24.8%	6.2%	0.90	1.55
Gonzalez	CWS	KCR	246	4.57	4.54	1.37	40.0%	17.6%	8.0%	1.24	1.15
Duffy	KCR	CWS	252	3.57	3.94	1.22	57.1%	22.4%	7.5%	1.04	0.91

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Corey Kluber CLE (vs. LAA) – Kluber is in the middle of an excellent five-start run, with a 1.46 ERA and 39:7 K:BB in 37.0 innings, pitching seven or more frames in all five turns. E has struck out exactly eight batters in four of those five starts, with seven strikeouts in the one turn that doesn’t match. He has had a tendency for blow-up starts this season, giving five or more runs in five of his 22 starts this season, but even the worst of times would be followed immediately by the best of times, including complete games and high-strikeout starts. His opponent lowers the expected K count in theory, as the Angels have the fewest batter Ks in the majors, but Kluber can spin a high K-count versus any lineup if his stuff and command are in top form.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jon Lester CHC (vs. STL) – Lester has gotten his act together over the last two starts, spinning a total of 13.0 innings with a 15:2 K:BB and just two runs allowed, winning both games as he toured the AL West in interleague play. He had a wild start against the Brewers in the start prior, but his other post-break turn involved one earned run over 7.2 frames against the Mets. He’ll get the true test in today’s game against the Cardinals, a team that trails only the sky-high ROckies and Lester’s own Cubs among NL teams in runs/game this season. However, the Cards have struggled against southpaws this season, with an OPS that is 78 points lower than it is against right-handers and a slash line of .244/.314/.401.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. ARI) – Thor has pitched pretty well since the All-Star break, with a 3.04 ERA and 29:9 K:BB in 23.2 innings spread across four starts. He has pitched long enough to record 17 or 18 outs in each of the four starts and has struck out six or more batters in each turn. Most impressive is that he did this against tough opponents, including the Cubs, Cardinals, Rockies and Tigers – basically a who’s who of NL’s top scorers and one of the top scoring teams from the AL. His efficiency has been less than ideal in those games, particularly in the last three games, in which he has thrown 112-to-118 pitches to get through an even 6.0 frames in each turn. He gets the benefit of an easier opponent and might surprise in today’s ballgame.

Danny Duffy KC (vs. CHW) – The 16-K game from two starts ago was an obvious outlier, one that likely inflated his price tag in most arenas to instantly vault him from underpriced asset to overpriced risk. He obviously has big-K upside, but the huge game against Tampa Bay is the only time in the last six starts that he has punched out more than seven hitters in a ballgame. Duffy throws hard (96 mph on average) with a changeup that has improved by leaps and bounds over last season, and the two pitches play off each other to form the baseline of his approach to pitching. The Rays game featured an exceptionally weak opponent – though Tampa Bay can hit southpaws and Duffy breezed through – and his stats are likely to be closer to earth for this start, but Duffy’s gains this season are legit and the White Sox give him a soft landing. In fact, the last time that Duffy faced the Pale Hose he recorded 1- strikeouts over 6.0 scoreless innings with three walks and three hits allowed.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Shipley					0.240	0.707	0.255	6.88	0.262	0.04	13.2%
Syndergaard	0.306	3.52	0.256	2.51	0.262	0.734	0.311	2.75	0.234	0.01	28.7%
Friedrich	0.303	4.40	0.350	5.24	0.254	0.720	0.327	4.24	0.281	0.00	17.1%
Taillon	0.336	3.38	0.271	3.18	0.239	0.686	0.307	3.63	0.266	0.02	20.5%
Fister	0.345	4.38	0.303	3.14	0.248	0.717	0.288	4.52	0.265	0.00	14.8%
Berrios	0.327	6.91	0.489	10.03	0.248	0.742	0.348	6.13	0.295	0.00	24.2%
Bettis	0.322	4.38	0.350	5.04	0.259	0.743	0.320	4.00	0.274	0.00	18.5%
Harrell	0.274	3.00	0.346	3.86	0.271	0.779	0.272	4.46	0.234	0.02	16.7%
Hernandez	0.324	3.14	0.340	5.59	0.251	0.709	0.292	4.49	0.274	0.01	12.1%
Garza	0.368	5.70	0.342	5.27	0.252	0.681	0.315	4.84	0.288	0.00	14.9%
Tillman	0.314	3.57	0.329	5.01	0.248	0.702	0.287	4.28	0.25	0.00	18.2%
Triggs	0.349	5.93	0.359	4.95	0.261	0.770	0.366	3.90	0.295	0.00	22.2%
Chacin	0.355	5.40	0.308	4.39	0.255	0.741	0.301	4.37	0.262	0.00	18.3%
Kluber	0.303	3.59	0.241	3.17	0.257	0.721	0.286	2.90	0.221	0.00	26.9%
Pineda	0.328	4.38	0.330	5.00	0.272	0.771	0.333	3.58	0.269	0.00	25.2%
Rodriguez	0.357	4.79	0.318	4.43	0.257	0.733	0.300	4.37	0.264	0.01	18.6%
Martinez	0.330	3.80	0.257	2.46	0.248	0.739	0.298	3.48	0.238	0.00	22.5%
Lester	0.276	3.08	0.289	3.20	0.236	0.684	0.287	3.28	0.23	0.00	24.8%
Gonzalez	0.337	3.88	0.325	5.24	0.264	0.719	0.296	4.58	0.264	0.00	17.6%
Duffy	0.246	2.13	0.323	3.93	0.248	0.679	0.292	3.89	0.242	0.00	22.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Carlos Martinez STL (at CHC) – Martinez is coming off his worst start of the season, with seven runs (six earned) given up over 5.0 innings against the Braves (side note: isn’t it weird how many good pitchers have had bad days against the weak lineup of the Braves?). Things have been rough over the past two starts for Martinez, with 11 runs given up over 12.0 innings including nine strikeouts and six walks. He has allowed a four-pack of free passes in three of his last five starts and hasn’t struck out more than five hitters in any of his last four turns. He gave up just five home runs over his last 17 starts but has coughed up four bombs in his last four ballgames, something that could become a factor in today’s game against the Cubs. It’s his first start of the year against the division rivals.

Jameson Taillon PIT (vs. SD) – Bank on 6.0 innings pitched. In his first game back from the DL, Taillon threw just 65 pitches yet clocked out with 6.0 frames under his belt. In his most recent start, Taillon climbed all the way up to 102 pitches, and the end result was — you guessed it — 6.0 innings pitches. It was his highest pitch-count of his major league career, and he established some street cred with six strikeouts, six hits, one walks and one run allowed over his six frames. With an expanded pitch count and Taillon’s level of pitch efficiency, he could replicate the eight scoreless innings that he threw in his second career start, and the Padres’ depleted offenses will give Taillon an easier path to doing so.

Chris TIllman BAL (at OAK) – Tillman started the month of July on a real run, giving up exactly one run over exactly 7.0 frames in each of four consecutive starts, until suddenly he got blow up for six runs over five innings against the Rockies. He has since been straddling the line for a baseline quality start over his last two games, putting up 10-15 points of fantasy value (DraftKings) while playing the wildly disparate offenses of the Blue Jays and White Sox. He takes on a light Oakland lineup that he beat with another baseline quality start back in early May, but he’s struck out more than four batters in only three of his last 10 starts, lowering the ceiling of his potential fantasy value against the low-strikeout lineup of the A’s.

Jose Berrios MIN (vs. HOU) – Well, he hasn’t been walking hitters. Berrios had a mechanical issue with a delivery that was off-line during his first stint in the majors, and though he has rectified the situation a bit with just one walk over the two starts (covering 11.0 innings) since his recall, batters have had no trouble squaring him up, including the two homers that he gave up amid four runs to the light-hitting Rays in his last start. There’s a small chance that he spikes a big K count against the free-swinging ‘Stros, but the downside includes a cellar when rostering the right-hander today.

Michael Pineda NYY (at BOS) – I can see this going one of two ways: 1) Pineda gets lit like a Disney parade by the mighty offense of the Red Sox; 2) Pineda takes advantage of an injury-depleted Boston lineup — with David Ortiz and Mookie Betts both potentially sitting out due to injury — to dominate Boston with a high-strikeout game. The odds are something like 3-to-2 in favor of the former, but the injuries last night to Betts and Big Papi moved the scales significantly.

Doug Fister SP HOU (at MIN)

Braden Shipley ARI (at NYM)

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (at KC)

Lucas Harrell TEX (vs. COL)

Matt Garza MIL (vs. ATL)

Andrew Triggs OAK (vs. BAL)

Jhoulys Chacin LAA (at CLE)