Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, June 16th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Straily | CIN | ATL | 91 | 3.56 | 4.54 | 1.19 | 14.3% | 20.5% | 10.5% | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| Wisler | ATL | CIN | 185.1 | 4.56 | 4.80 | 1.33 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 1.36 | 0.80 | |
| Paxton | SEA | TBR | 83 | 3.58 | 4.01 | 1.46 | 50.0% | 21.6% | 8.9% | 1.19 | 1.50 |
| Snell | TBR | SEA | |||||||||
| Lewis | TEX | OAK | 288.2 | 4.18 | 4.47 | 1.19 | 11.8% | 16.4% | 4.9% | 1.18 | 0.79 |
| Mengden | OAK | TEX | |||||||||
| Happ | TOR | PHI | 254.2 | 3.64 | 4.08 | 1.24 | 30.8% | 19.4% | 6.6% | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| Nola | PHI | TOR | 159.1 | 3.28 | 3.28 | 1.12 | 24.0% | 5.4% | 1.02 | 1.78 | |
| Rodriguez | BOS | BAL | 138 | 4.11 | 4.39 | 1.30 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 1.17 | 1.16 | |
| Nicasio | PIT | NYM | 117.1 | 4.60 | 3.95 | 1.50 | 35.7% | 24.1% | 11.0% | 0.77 | 1.20 |
| Colon | NYM | PIT | 267.2 | 3.87 | 4.10 | 1.23 | 42.1% | 16.5% | 3.3% | 1.08 | 1.17 |
| Sabathia | NYY | MIN | 226.2 | 4.09 | 4.19 | 1.37 | 25.0% | 19.1% | 7.6% | 1.19 | 1.34 |
| Gibson | MIN | NYY | 221 | 4.15 | 4.28 | 1.33 | 52.6% | 16.7% | 8.3% | 0.86 | 1.98 |
| Verlander | DET | KCR | 219.1 | 3.53 | 3.80 | 1.08 | 35.0% | 23.1% | 6.4% | 0.94 | 0.76 |
| Duffy | KCR | DET | 185.2 | 3.78 | 4.14 | 1.30 | 57.1% | 20.5% | 8.0% | 1.02 | 0.99 |
| Guerra | MIL | LAD | 53 | 3.57 | 4.28 | 1.25 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 1.02 | 1.11 | |
| Kazmir | LAD | MIL | 256.2 | 3.51 | 4.08 | 1.22 | 63.2% | 21.3% | 8.2% | 1.12 | 1.13 |
| Roark | WAS | SDP | 191 | 3.77 | 4.03 | 1.27 | 52.6% | 17.8% | 6.8% | 1.04 | 1.76 |
| Johnson | SDP | WAS | 51.1 | 4.73 | 4.91 | 1.56 | 20.0% | 19.3% | 11.0% | 2.63 | 0.60 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
It’s an exceptionally weak slate today, one that is not only missing an All-In candidate but one that is severely lacking in Raise options, as well. It’s going to be a day with bat-heavy lineups and which will force most DFS gamers to roll the dice on some arms. It’s a day to turn back the clock, as some of the most appealing options have last names like Verlander, Sabathia and Colon.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Justin Verlander DET (at KC) – No, it’s not 2011, but nonetheless Verlander presents the top option among today’s starting pitchers. His first month was brutal, with a 6.49 ERA through his first half-dozen starts, but since the former Cy Young and MVP winner has been excellent: a 1.93 ERA and 57:11 ratio of K:BB through his last seven starts and 51.1 innings pitched. He has been a workhorse during that stretch, tossing 6.2 innings or more in every start, six of which have qualified as quality starts, and four of those games he has held opponents to one or zero runs. His last start was actually the first time that he had failed to go seven full frames or strike out at least seven batters in a game since the first week of May, a stretch that includes just 30 hits and three homers allowed in his 51.1 innings.
Aaron Nola PHI (vs. TOR) – It isn’t often that a pitcher facing the Blue Jays earns one of the top spots on the DPB rankings, particularly when that pitcher tops out as a Raise candidate even when facing a light offense, but Nola is one of the most intriguing pitchers on today’s slate when considering his overall talent profile and proven track record. Of his 13 turns this season, 10 have qualified as quality starts, and in fact his last game (3.2 innings against the Nats) was. Just the second time all season that Nola failed to pitch at least six full frames or strike out at least a half-dozen hitters. Four evidence of his dominance of the strike zone, one need look no further than Nola’s K:BB ratio of 88:16 this season.
Blake Snell TB (vs. SEA) – Snell earned a single-game cameo back in April, but the struggling Rays rotation and recent move of Matt Andriese to the bullpen might open up a more permanent spot in the Tampa Bay rotation for the phenom. His 4.0 BB/9 in the minors is a sign that he still has some honing to do, but his 12.9 K/9 for Triple-A Durham will steal the focus of DFS gamers who will try to catch lightning in a bottle. Those numbers are consistent with his stats throughout the minors, as Snell is a True Outcome maven on the mound when it comes to walks and strikeouts, though he has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard (career 0.5 HR/9) to minimize the impact of his mistakes.
CC Sabathia NYY (at MIN) – Somewhat shockingly, Sabathia is having a fantastic season thus far in 2016, carrying a 2.28 ERA into tonight’s game against the Minnesota Twins and their Sano-less offense. April involved a series of three-run outings, but since the calendar flipped to May the well-compensated southpaw has run up a remarkable 0.71 ERA with a 34:13 K:BB ratio in six starts and 38.0 innings pitched. The icing on the cake is that CC has been dominating some of the biggest offenses in the American League, including Toronto (twice), Baltimore (twice) and Detroit over his hot stretch. He allowed just 23 hits and one home run in the 38 innings against those juggernaut offenses, compared to whom the Twins will feel like a vacation.
Tanner Roark WAS (at SD)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Straily | 0.288 | 3.88 | 0.292 | 3.19 | 0.252 | 0.672 | 0.236 | 4.35 | 0.204 | 0.01 | 20.5% |
| Wisler | 0.374 | 5.38 | 0.284 | 3.82 | 0.245 | 0.703 | 0.278 | 4.80 | 0.258 | 0.00 | 16.0% |
| Paxton | 0.448 | 6.60 | 0.277 | 2.91 | 0.262 | 0.771 | 0.313 | 4.12 | 0.261 | 0.01 | 21.6% |
| Snell | 0.259 | 0.733 | |||||||||
| Lewis | 0.320 | 4.14 | 0.297 | 4.22 | 0.250 | 0.701 | 0.278 | 4.23 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 16.4% |
| Mengden | 0.259 | 0.740 | |||||||||
| Happ | 0.291 | 2.47 | 0.311 | 3.99 | 0.249 | 0.672 | 0.294 | 3.83 | 0.253 | 0.00 | 19.4% |
| Nola | 0.308 | 3.72 | 0.261 | 2.97 | 0.259 | 0.776 | 0.286 | 3.37 | 0.234 | 0.01 | 24.0% |
| Wilson | 0.308 | 3.48 | 0.329 | 5.19 | 0.272 | 0.768 | 0.282 | 4.19 | 0.265 | 0.01 | 10.7% |
| Rodriguez | 0.339 | 4.50 | 0.306 | 3.99 | 0.237 | 0.673 | 0.280 | 4.35 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 17.7% |
| Nicasio | 0.411 | 6.12 | 0.278 | 3.74 | 0.242 | 0.714 | 0.336 | 3.61 | 0.259 | 0.00 | 24.1% |
| Colon | 0.309 | 3.51 | 0.315 | 4.26 | 0.265 | 0.738 | 0.305 | 3.78 | 0.273 | 0.00 | 16.5% |
| Sabathia | 0.252 | 3.92 | 0.342 | 4.13 | 0.255 | 0.725 | 0.307 | 4.32 | 0.266 | 0.00 | 19.1% |
| Gibson | 0.321 | 4.65 | 0.301 | 3.67 | 0.245 | 0.729 | 0.289 | 4.12 | 0.253 | 0.00 | 16.7% |
| Verlander | 0.265 | 2.68 | 0.290 | 4.40 | 0.267 | 0.730 | 0.266 | 3.47 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 23.1% |
| Duffy | 0.252 | 2.04 | 0.335 | 4.25 | 0.273 | 0.785 | 0.300 | 4.08 | 0.252 | 0.00 | 20.5% |
| Guerra | 0.308 | 3.47 | 0.310 | 3.64 | 0.242 | 0.719 | 0.284 | 3.94 | 0.242 | 0.02 | 20.4% |
| Kazmir | 0.320 | 4.50 | 0.296 | 3.13 | 0.236 | 0.689 | 0.272 | 4.16 | 0.232 | 0.00 | 21.3% |
| Roark | 0.324 | 3.21 | 0.303 | 4.26 | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.292 | 4.14 | 0.257 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Johnson | 0.385 | 4.68 | 0.396 | 4.78 | 0.247 | 0.720 | 0.280 | 6.73 | 0.272 | 0.02 | 19.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Dan Straily CIN (at ATL) – Straily has been walking between the raindrops thus far in 2016, with a high walk rate (3.9 BB/9), a modest K rate (7.7 K/9), enough homers to make him pay and yet a solid 3.15 ERA to show for his work. The success has been bolstered by an unsustainable hit rate of 6.4 H/9, meaning that the demons of regression are looming, but he might be granted an extra stay of execution against the meager offense of the Braves. Enjoy it while you can.
Scott Kazmir LAD (vs. MIL) – Kazmir spiked 12 strikeouts against the Reds back on May 25, but outside that start he has managed more than seven strikeouts just one other time. The Dodgers have been limiting his pitch count lately, maxing out at 91 throws in his last four starts, and the limited exposure has kept his innings low, as Kazmir has thrown more than 6.0 frames just twice this season. He might be able to creep over the seven-strikeout threshold today against the whiff-prone offense of the Brewers, but if he is limited to another five-inning game then the K-count will remain low.
Colby Lewis TEX (at OAK) – Lewis continues to post solid starts for the Rangers, with quality starts in 11 of his 13 turns and going at least six full frames in 12 of 13. The strikeouts and homers are a serious concern, however, as Lewis has already coughed up 12 homers in his 84 innings and has managed just 10 strikeouts over his last four starts (25.0 innings pitched). One gets the feeling that the mirage is about to be exposed, but one had that feeling six weeks ago, as well.
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. PIT) – It may not be sexy, but Colon represents one of the safer options on today’s slate despite the 43 candles on his last birthday cake.
J.A. Happ TOR (vs. PHI) – The upper tier of today’s pitcher pool is more about opponents than raw talent, and though Happ is having a decent season in his own rite, it’s the fact that he is facing the suspect offense of the Phillies that earns him such a relatively-lofty ranking. The strikeouts are low and homers are high, and Tommy Joseph and company will be taking aim at the southpaw. Stay tuned.
Juan Nicasio PIT (at NYM) – Nicasio is having a rough season, but he might be able to start turning the tide thanks to his facing the Mets at a time when their offense is in tatters due to injury.
James Paxton SEA (at TB) – The left-harder represents an extreme case of the misleading nature of earned versus unearned runs. Due to the timing of errors by his defense, Paxton has given up 11 runs in his first 16.0 innings this season, but only four of those tallies were earned, giving him a 2.25 ERA that is masking his ineffectiveness. He had a 3.97 ERA for Tacoma this season, and though his peripherals were more impressive (3.6 K-to-walk ratio) and he has an impressive 24 strikeouts in the. Majors so far, the multitude of homers that he has given up and the ability for the Rays to mash left-handers cast serious doubt as to his potential effectiveness today.
Matt Wisler ATL (vs. CIN)
Danny Duffy KC (vs. DET)
Junior Guerra MIL (at LAD)
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (vs. BAL)
Erik Johnson SD (vs. WAS)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. NYY)
Daniel Mengden OAK (vs. TEX) – The right-harder is starting today’s game more out of necessity than merit, as though his 2016 season has been strong in the areas of run prevention, his minor-league peripherals fail to support the low ERA and the injury-depleted A’s are desperate for innings. Mengden finished last season pitching at High-A, but he has jumped three levels to the bigs as the A’s struggle to find healthy arms to chew up outs on all levels of the organization.
Tyler Wilson BAL (at BOS)
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window