Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, June 30th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin | TEX | NYY | 38 | 3.08 | 4.46 | 1.13 | 21.9% | 9.7% | 0.71 | 0.83 | |
| Pineda | NYY | TEX | 244 | 4.76 | 3.20 | 1.29 | 75.0% | 24.3% | 4.0% | 1.29 | 1.50 |
| Maeda | LAD | MIL | 86.2 | 2.91 | 3.85 | 1.11 | 23.9% | 7.5% | 0.83 | 1.24 | |
| Davies | MIL | LAD | 108.2 | 3.73 | 4.15 | 1.19 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 0.91 | 1.71 | |
| Milone | MIN | CWS | 155.2 | 4.16 | 4.42 | 1.32 | 43.8% | 16.8% | 6.8% | 1.27 | 1.24 |
| Rodon | CWS | MIN | 220.2 | 3.87 | 4.13 | 1.46 | 22.9% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 1.46 | |
| Finnegan | CIN | WAS | 142 | 3.74 | 4.72 | 1.28 | 18.8% | 10.9% | 1.27 | 1.33 | |
| Gonzalez | WAS | CIN | 261.1 | 4.10 | 3.80 | 1.40 | 46.7% | 22.6% | 8.5% | 0.59 | 1.85 |
| Dickey | TOR | CLE | 310 | 4.01 | 4.77 | 1.24 | 47.6% | 14.9% | 7.4% | 1.22 | 1.20 |
| Lackey | CHC | NYM | 316.1 | 2.93 | 3.80 | 1.16 | 57.9% | 21.6% | 6.2% | 0.88 | 1.30 |
| Matz | NYM | CHC | 112.1 | 2.96 | 3.47 | 1.20 | 23.0% | 5.4% | 0.80 | 1.74 | |
| Zimmermann | DET | TBR | 291.1 | 3.71 | 4.03 | 1.20 | 52.6% | 18.4% | 4.6% | 0.99 | 1.17 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | DET | 258.2 | 3.55 | 3.97 | 1.18 | 36.8% | 21.8% | 6.9% | 1.15 | 0.91 |
| Chen | MIA | ATL | 277.2 | 3.86 | 4.03 | 1.24 | 31.6% | 19.5% | 5.2% | 1.43 | 1.01 |
| Foltynewicz | ATL | MIA | 120 | 5.10 | 4.25 | 1.52 | 19.5% | 6.9% | 1.72 | 0.84 | |
| Young | KCR | STL | 177 | 4.12 | 4.94 | 1.23 | 47.4% | 18.6% | 8.9% | 1.88 | 0.46 |
| Leake | STL | KCR | 283 | 3.88 | 4.19 | 1.19 | 45.0% | 15.3% | 5.6% | 1.14 | 1.90 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | OAK | 326.2 | 2.62 | 3.12 | 1.01 | 47.6% | 27.3% | 5.2% | 0.85 | 1.13 |
| Overton | OAK | SFG | |||||||||
| Tillman | BAL | SEA | 267.2 | 4.47 | 4.49 | 1.33 | 42.9% | 18.5% | 8.6% | 1.11 | 1.20 |
| Walker | SEA | BAL | 245.1 | 4.22 | 3.73 | 1.19 | 22.2% | 5.6% | 1.43 | 1.06 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at OAK) – Bumgarner has been coasting with an ERA under 2.00 for the entire month of June, and he is in a good position to keep the good times rolling against the cross-bay Athletics. Bummer has a streak going of 13 consecutive quality starts, and if you upgrade the quota to “superior starts” (a stat that I just made up, meaning games of 7.0 or more innings and two or fewer earned runs), then he still qualifies in seven of those 13 turns, with two other games falling just an out shy of qualification. He has also struck out seven or more batters in four of his last five and has whiffed double-digit hitters in three different starts this season, but he has limited the self-inflicted damage with just three games of more than two walks allowed. Invest and don’t look back.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at TOR) – Carrasco is coming off of his best start of the season. Hurling a shutout in Detroit with seven strikeouts and just five base runners. The Tigers and Blue Jays are somewhat similar these days, with top-heavy star power that will intimidate any pitcher (Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera), an integral power lost to the disabled list (Jose Bautista, J.D. Martinez) and a leaky lower-half of the lineup. Carrasco has been pretty consistent this season, giving a half-dozen innings with a couple runs allowed, a half-dozen Ks, a walk and a homer stapled to his box score. For a pitcher whose performance fluctuated pretty wildly last season, he has done the opposite this year, riding slow and steady, with four or fewer runs allowed in every start yet no more than eight strikeouts in any one outing.
John Lackey CHC (at NYM) – Lackey was Captain Consistency for two months, with a string of 10 consecutive quality starts that featured a sub-2.00 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. The streak was preceded by a six-run shellacking in his last start of April, and in his last start, against the Marlins, Lackey bookended the streak with his worst outing of the year: 4.1 IP, 7 R, 7 H, 3 BB, 5 K. He has been able to shake off bad outings and come back strong in the follow-up, making me less shy about enlisting his services today in DFS.
Kenta Maeda LAD (at MIL) – It’s funny how all of Maeda’s bad outings look the same. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 15 starts; in each of the other five, he has allowed exactly four runs (all earned). In the last four of the four-run games (including his last start against the Pirates), he gave up between 4-6 hits and 1-2 walks, striking out 3-5 hitters in 4.0-5.0 innings. The Pirate game was his first four-spot in over a month, but the last one was part of a three-start string of the four-run outings. Maeda had a great game against the Brewers just two starts ago, giving up one run over 6.1 frames with eight strikeouts, so the risk could well be worth the reward.
Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. MIN) – Rodon is on a nice little run of consistency, a welcome sight to behold from a young starter who was rushed to the majors. His last three starts are nearly carbon copies of one another, with two runs allowed and within an out of 6.0 innings pitched, including 8-9 baserunners and 7-8 strikeouts in each game. His solid performance goes back even further than that, as since a six-run, 12-hit disaster against the Rangers on May 10, Rodon has strung together 41.2 innings of a 3.24 ERA over seven starts, with a 42:13 K:BB. Minnesota, meanwhile, has a bottom-quartile offense, including the third-lowest OPS and lowest rate of runs scored per game in the American League. Brian Dozier is on fire right now and he loves hitting southpaws (career SLG of .502), so how Rodon handles Dozier will be a critical aspect of this game.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin | 0.289 | 3.26 | 0.253 | 2.89 | 0.248 | 0.729 | 0.243 | 3.58 | 0.2 | 0.03 | 21.9% |
| Pineda | 0.330 | 4.54 | 0.338 | 4.94 | 0.259 | 0.740 | 0.341 | 3.53 | 0.277 | 0.01 | 24.3% |
| Maeda | 0.275 | 2.43 | 0.267 | 3.33 | 0.255 | 0.714 | 0.273 | 3.45 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 23.9% |
| Davies | 0.298 | 2.68 | 0.296 | 4.63 | 0.243 | 0.722 | 0.268 | 3.93 | 0.229 | 0.01 | 20.0% |
| Milone | 0.283 | 4.06 | 0.334 | 4.19 | 0.244 | 0.668 | 0.286 | 4.44 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 16.8% |
| Rodon | 0.245 | 3.00 | 0.352 | 4.20 | 0.254 | 0.724 | 0.327 | 3.95 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 22.9% |
| Finnegan | 0.335 | 3.38 | 0.303 | 3.86 | 0.268 | 0.778 | 0.246 | 4.88 | 0.222 | 0.01 | 18.8% |
| Gonzalez | 0.269 | 3.34 | 0.325 | 4.32 | 0.246 | 0.711 | 0.335 | 3.25 | 0.262 | 0.00 | 22.6% |
| Carrasco | 0.286 | 3.20 | 0.285 | 3.60 | 0.260 | 0.785 | 0.294 | 3.17 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 27.8% |
| Dickey | 0.312 | 3.95 | 0.319 | 4.06 | 0.254 | 0.737 | 0.260 | 4.71 | 0.244 | 0.00 | 14.9% |
| Lackey | 0.319 | 3.04 | 0.266 | 2.84 | 0.241 | 0.709 | 0.288 | 3.52 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 21.6% |
| Matz | 0.306 | 2.00 | 0.280 | 3.27 | 0.245 | 0.728 | 0.313 | 3.15 | 0.252 | 0.01 | 23.0% |
| Zimmermann | 0.321 | 3.93 | 0.288 | 3.49 | 0.241 | 0.704 | 0.299 | 3.71 | 0.261 | 0.00 | 18.4% |
| Odorizzi | 0.271 | 2.96 | 0.333 | 4.20 | 0.269 | 0.743 | 0.272 | 3.89 | 0.232 | 0.00 | 21.8% |
| Chen | 0.262 | 2.59 | 0.346 | 4.23 | 0.231 | 0.627 | 0.292 | 4.31 | 0.261 | 0.00 | 19.5% |
| Foltynewicz | 0.405 | 5.67 | 0.342 | 4.64 | 0.261 | 0.700 | 0.335 | 4.96 | 0.295 | 0.00 | 19.5% |
| Young | 0.383 | 5.24 | 0.257 | 3.18 | 0.264 | 0.762 | 0.230 | 5.42 | 0.225 | 0.00 | 18.6% |
| Leake | 0.316 | 4.22 | 0.287 | 3.51 | 0.270 | 0.734 | 0.268 | 4.30 | 0.248 | 0.00 | 15.3% |
| Bumgarner | 0.226 | 2.33 | 0.273 | 2.68 | 0.257 | 0.725 | 0.276 | 2.92 | 0.214 | 0.01 | 27.3% |
| Overton | 0.265 | 0.714 | |||||||||
| Tillman | 0.320 | 3.62 | 0.330 | 5.29 | 0.249 | 0.736 | 0.288 | 4.36 | 0.252 | 0.00 | 18.5% |
| Walker | 0.296 | 3.80 | 0.324 | 4.73 | 0.263 | 0.778 | 0.283 | 4.20 | 0.245 | 0.01 | 22.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Michael Pineda NYY (vs. TEX) – The Pinata is a boom-or-bust play, with the ability to pile up a massive strikeout bounty with minimal interference from baserunners, yet the overwhelming tendency to get beaten into submission with wooden sticks. He’s stabilized things a bit of late, and after falling under 20 fantasy points (DraftKings) in each of his first 10 starts, he has now cleared the 20-point bar four times in his last five games. Texas bring a tough offense to the table, so things could go south in a hurry, but the combination of upside, recent performance and the lack of an injury vault him ahead of the other players on the Call list.
Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. DET) – Say hello to the least efficient pitcher in the majors leagues. Odorizzi leads all qualified pitchers with an average of 4.44 pitches-per-plate-appearance, and the gap between him and second place is larger than the gap between second and no. 18 on the list. As a result, Odorizzi throws boatloads of pitches – he’s exceeded 110 throws three times this month, topping out at 120 – and yet has only thrown more than 6.0 innings in three of his 16 starts this season. He struck out 10 batters in his first start, had six or fewer Ks in each of the next eight turns, then went on a streak of six or more strikeouts in six straight games, only to strike out a single Oriole in his last outing. Where this is going, I don’t know, but then again neither does he.
Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. BAL) – The top of the Call list is riddled with question marks, with pitchers who might be on a short leash due to various injuries or ineffectiveness. With Walker it’s been the former, as the right-hander has been experiencing tendinitis in his right foot, an ailment that caused Walker to skip a turn in the rotation. Walker hasn’t thrown more than 88 pitches in a ballgame since June 8, and though his arm might theoretically be “fresh,” the Mariners could be cautious with him.
Steven Matz NYM (vs. CHC) – Between the bone chips and the opponent, I don’t have high hopes for Matz in this one. There are so many things that could go wrong that will steer me away, from Matz leaving the game early if the elbow starts barking to diminished effectiveness or just the firepower of the Cubs offense. His last start wasn’t too encouraging, either, giving up six runs to the friggin’ Braves over just 4.1 innings, with nine hits allowed and zero strikeouts. Expect a lot of gamers to avoid Matz today, for what it’s worth.
Jordan Zimmermann DET (at TB) – It just can’t be easy with Zimm. We get it, regression, yada yada yada, he was playing over his head in April, yada yada (I agree), but the rabbit hole has gone deep enough already and Zimmermann needs to stop tumbling. He has given up six or more runs four times in his last seven starts, exploding an ERA that stood at 1.50 seven starts into the season to his current 3.81 ERA after 14 games. He had a decent outing against the Rays a month ago, falling one out shy of a quality start but with just three strikeouts, and their generally-weak offense will give him a buffer, but it seems that Zimm pulls his own string at any time, causing the whole thing to unravel.
Chris Tillman BAL (at SEA) – Tillman is on a tough run, with 12 homers allowed over his last eight starts, but sandwiched in the middle is a 7.1-inning scoreless gem against the Royals (9 Ks) and a 7.0-inning containment of the Red Sox (1 run, 7 Ks). Yet he’s been hit hard over the last 30 days by mediocre offenses like those of the Rays, Yankees and Indians. I have no idea what he’s going to do next, with little indication in terms of his opponents or momentum. This makes Tillman an interesting dice-roll but nothing more.
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at ATL)
A.J. Griffin TEX (at NYY)
Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. CIN)
Zach Davies MIL (vs. LAD)
R.A. Dickey TOR (vs. CLE)
Mike Leake STL (vs. KC)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. MIA)
Brandon Finnegan CIN (at WAS)
Dillon Overton OAK (vs SF)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Tommy Milone MIN (at CHW)
Chris Young KC (at STL)
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window