Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, September 15th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-16 02:15:48

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Santiago	MIN	DET	339.2	4.13	4.72	1.31	16.7%	19.9%	9.7%	1.54	0.65
Pelfrey	DET	MIN	280	4.47	4.90	1.57		11.2%	7.4%	0.80	1.98
Clevinger	CLE	CWS	41.1	5.01	4.79	1.45		22.1%	13.3%	1.09	1.02
Shields	CWS	CLE	359.2	4.83	4.39	1.46	42.9%	20.7%	9.7%	1.75	1.18
Kuhl	PIT	PHI	50.2	4.09	4.82	1.26		16.0%	7.6%	1.07	1.21
Eickhoff	PHI	PIT	224.2	3.49	4.05	1.18		20.7%	5.7%	1.08	1.02
Snell	TBR	BAL	77	3.62	4.67	1.64		23.6%	12.9%	0.58	1.04
Gallardo	BAL	TBR	287	4.14	4.92	1.48	50.0%	15.3%	9.7%	0.94	1.49
Rodriguez	BOS	NYY	209.2	4.21	4.41	1.29		18.9%	7.7%	1.20	1.03
Mengden	OAK	KCR	56.1	6.39	4.68	1.69		21.4%	11.3%	1.12	1.12
Volquez	KCR	OAK	372	4.26	4.46	1.39	50.0%	17.4%	8.3%	0.87	1.59
Nelson	MIL	CHC	340.1	4.26	4.50	1.39		18.4%	9.6%	1.03	1.71
Montgomery	CHC	MIL	178.2	3.68	4.08	1.32		19.2%	9.3%	0.91	2.18
Hill	LAD	ARI	124	1.74	3.12	0.89		30.3%	7.3%	0.29	1.28
Bradley	ARI	LAD	155.2	5.26	4.70	1.58		19.4%	11.4%	1.10	1.71
Happ	TOR	LAA	342.1	3.47	3.97	1.22	30.8%	21.3%	6.7%	0.97	1.20
Wright	LAA	TOR	18	7.50	5.30	1.89		9.1%	3.4%	2.00	0.97
Wainwright	STL	SFG	204	4.06	4.16	1.30	84.2%	18.9%	6.2%	0.71	1.55
Cueto	SFG	STL	410.1	3.18	3.75	1.11	76.2%	21.1%	5.2%	0.79	1.42

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Many of the All-In pitchers have slowly dropped off the map during the season, and the few true aces that remain have been pitching on the same day recently, resulting in an uneven pitcher pool from day-to-day. Aces such as Madison Bumgarner, Jose Fernandez and Jon Lester took the hill yesterday, but there isn’t an arm on today’s slate that has both the baseline talent and the friendly context to recommend investing a full stack of chips. The Raise options also carry more risk than usual, with a couple pitchers vaulted to the next tier due to the lack of available alternatives.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. STL) – Cueto has thrown five quality starts in his last six turns, with the outlier being a four-run outing in 4.2 innings against Arizona, a game that included four walks – in the other five of his last six games, Cueto has only walked five batters combined. He came back to beat the Diamondbacks with seven frames of three-hit, two-run baseball in his last start, running his record to 15-5 on the season, and in-between the two Arizona starts Cueto had hurled another seven innings of one-run ball, this time against the Cubs. The Cards have a menacing offense, but Cueto earns confidence with the starts against the Cubs and the fact that he limited St. Louis to one run (zero earned) over six innings the last time that he faced them. Oddly, Cueto walked five batters and mustered just one strikeout in that game, which is the only other time this season that he walked more than three batters in a game. In fact, he’s walked two batters or fewer in 26 of his 29 starts this season, and he has only failed to throw 6.0 or more innings five times.

Rich Hill LAD (at ARI) – Hill’s blister needs a name. Let’s call him Bubby. Thanks to Bubby Blister, Hill spent a chunk of the season on the disabled list, missed his first month of games with his new teammates and, in his last start, Bubby robbed Hill of a perfect game by flaring up and provoking manager Dave Roberts to pull Hill with six outs to go, a historically unprecedented move (at least in the last 117 years). We can’t be sure if Bubby will flare up again in tonight’s start to cause an early exit for Hill, but the other contextual factors are in place for a strong outing and Bubby is the only thing standing in Hill’s way of the top spot on today’s list.

J.A. Happ TOR (at LAA) – The 33-year-old Happ is having a career season, parlaying his tutelage as a member of the Pirates into a solid campaign with the Blue Jays. However, Happ has been off his game lately, with a 5.27 ERA over his last five starts, each of which included multiple runs crossing the plate. His strikeouts have really taken a hit in recent games, totaling just 10 Ks over his last three starts covering 15.0 innings. Two of those games came against the top-shelf offenses of the Red Sox and Orioles (though Baltimore lose the “top-shelf” designation when facing southpaws like Happ), sandwiched around what should have been a relatively easy assignment in Tampa Bay. But Happ was ousted in the third inning of the Tampa game, having recorded just eight outs yet thrown 85 pitches. Pitch-count efficiency is key for Happ, who has thrown less than 100 pitches in 19 of his 28 starts this season, topping out at 111 throws back in May. The Angels will likely help to keep the K count low, but he will likely need to better than the four runs that he gave up to the Halos in 5.0 innings on August 25 if he hopes to come out on top.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Santiago	0.312	3.20	0.327	4.41	0.270	0.778	0.257	5.03	0.233	95.68	19.9%
Pelfrey	0.375	4.99	0.333	4.00	0.248	0.719	0.337	4.48	0.311	89.42	11.2%
Clevinger	0.252	3.60	0.372	6.33	0.253	0.707	0.277	4.52	0.229	0.00	22.1%
Shields	0.379	4.51	0.338	5.12	0.257	0.746	0.301	5.25	0.266	0.00	20.7%
Kuhl	0.359	4.44	0.290	3.76	0.241	0.684	0.275	4.47	0.249	81.40	16.0%
Eickhoff	0.347	4.22	0.260	2.77	0.259	0.725	0.285	3.81	0.244	92.89	20.7%
Snell	0.296	2.60	0.337	3.92	0.236	0.674	0.352	3.61	0.267	93.50	23.6%
Gallardo	0.343	4.88	0.320	3.49	0.245	0.720	0.302	4.45	0.27	95.32	15.3%
Tanaka	0.280	3.39	0.279	3.12	0.275	0.779	0.263	3.57	0.227	94.96	22.0%
Rodriguez	0.342	4.66	0.300	4.08	0.254	0.727	0.277	4.32	0.245	94.46	18.9%
Mengden	0.352	6.43	0.354	6.35	0.262	0.718	0.345	4.55	0.28	0.00	21.4%
Volquez	0.319	3.99	0.320	4.53	0.249	0.703	0.304	4.08	0.263	96.59	17.4%
Nelson	0.360	5.22	0.297	3.50	0.247	0.738	0.292	4.55	0.252	93.29	18.4%
Montgomery	0.316	4.44	0.311	3.36	0.245	0.722	0.283	4.23	0.241	47.41	19.2%
Hill	0.172	1.52	0.234	1.81	0.270	0.786	0.247	2.29	0.172	0.01	30.3%
Bradley	0.364	4.70	0.323	5.78	0.253	0.750	0.318	4.62	0.269	0.00	19.4%
Happ	0.288	3.16	0.303	3.56	0.246	0.700	0.294	3.68	0.246	91.37	21.3%
Wright					0.257	0.776	0.380	5.98	0.373	0.00	9.1%
Wainwright	0.337	4.55	0.301	3.72	0.262	0.736	0.320	3.44	0.269	88.39	18.9%
Cueto	0.275	2.49	0.293	3.78	0.259	0.758	0.283	3.33	0.236	102.70	21.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at BOS) – Tanaka has been virtually unstoppable lately. The right-hander is 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA over his last seven starts, with four starts of 7.0 or more innings during that stretch as well as his four biggest K-count games of the season. He failed to exceed seven strikeouts in any of his first 22 starts, but Tanaka had a three-game stretch of eight or more Ks in early-to-mid August and is coming off his best output of the season, a 10-K effort against the Rays. He has exceeded 24 points on DraftKings in five of those seven starts, with two of them checking in above 34 points, and the only thing keeping Tanaka out of the Raise section is the fact that he’s facing the highest-scoring lineup in baseball – the Red Sox have scored more runs than the Rockies, who get to play half their games at altitude, and are 0.57 runs/game higher than the menacing Cubs. That said, Tanaka shut down the BoSox the last time that he faced them, with just one run allowed on three hits over 6.0 innings, with seven strikeouts against one walk back in his first start after the All-Star break.

Adam Wainwright STL (at SF) – Speaking of rollercoaster seasons, Wainwright is having one himself. His ERA stood at 6.80 in mid-May, after which Waino got back on track and steadily worked to get the figure down to 4.14 in early August, but then he gave up six or more runs in three out of four turns, taking his run-prevention back through the roof. He stat-line was spared by five of the seven runs he gave up to the Mets on August 25 being unearned, and since he has spun a pair of strong outings against the free-swinging Brewers, sandwiched around another disappointing turn (this one versus the Pirates). Wainwright allowed just two runs over 15.0 innings, with 14 strikeouts against four walks in the two games against Milwaukee, but those are the only two outings that he has had since late July that were better than a baseline quality start. He faced the Giants once this season, during one of his strong stretches back in June, giving up two runs on five hits in seven innings of work, but it’s anyone’s guess which version of Wainwright will show up for today’s game. He would be further down the Call list on most other days, and he is best used as a speculation play in large tournaments; I would avoid him in cash games.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. PIT) – Eickhoff has spun quality starts in each of his last four games, coming within one run allowed of making it five straight, but it has been a streak of moderate strength as Eickhoff has not exceeded 6.0 frames in any of the five games and has surrendered multiple runs in four of them – his ERA over those five contests is a solid-yet-unspectacular 3.30. The strikeouts have been modest this season, even during his good runs, as exemplified by the mere 15 punchouts that he has registered over the last four games and 24.0 innings pitched. He has popped eight or more strikeouts in six of his 29 starts this season, leaving open the window that he has a strong game for DFS purposes, but keep in mind that he hasn’t compiled more than 20 fantasy points (DraftKings) since late July.

Blake Snell TB (at BAL) – As a team, the Orioles have a massive lean toward hitting right-handed pitchers, leaving them potentially vulnerable when a lefty takes the mound for the opponent, but the big bats of Baltimore are far from helpless against southpaws, as Drew Pomeranz learned on Tuesday (two innings, five runs). Snell walks far too many hitters to be trustworthy (5.3 BB/9), with a 3.62 ERA that has survived largely thanks to his stinginess for the home run, giving up just five homers in 77.0 innings this season. His strikeout rate is enticing at 9.6 K/9, but his K counts on a per-game basis are often thwarted by early exits due to deep counts and too many pitches per batter – his 4.27 pitches per plate appearance would lead the major leagues if Snell had enough innings to qualify, as would his 12.9-percent walk rate.

Mike Montgomery CHC (vs. MIL) – Montgomery has been in the rotation for four consecutive starts after spending his first seven games for Chicago pitching out of the bullpen. He ramped up his workload quickly, going from 60 pitches in his first start to 90 in his second, but a lack of pitch-count efficiency combined with a 91-pitch cap on his workload has kept him from tossing more than 5.0 innings in any of those four contests. He faced the Brewers in his last turn,m giving up just one run on two hits and two walks over 5.0 frames, striking out six batters along the way to finish with 18.85 points on DraftKings – that total represents his likely ceiling tonight in round two against Milwaukee.

Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (vs. NYY) – Rodriguez was an unmitigated disaster in his first half-dozen starts, tossing a quality start in his first turn but then getting lit for four or more runs in each of the next five games, culminating in a nine-run implosion that included 11 hits over just 2.2 innings against the Rays, a performance which sent the southpaw back to the minors. He has been much better since his return, which came just after the All-Star break; in 10 starts since, Rodriguez has posted a 2.76 ERA with a respectable 50:20 K:BB over 58.2 innings. He hasn’t won a game since mid-July, an oddity given the tremendous run support typically offered by the Boston offense and likely a short-term anomaly. He gave up just one run over 7.0 innings against the Yankees on August 11, a performance he hopes to repeat tonight.

Chad Kuhl PIT (at PHI)

Archie Bradley ARI (vs. LAD)

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. OAK)

Yovani Gallardo BAL (vs. TB)