Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, April 11th

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

The dollar figure in parentheses is the pitcher’s salary on DraftKings, which was taken into consideration when determining the tiers of value on today’s breakdown.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher Team Opp IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 GB%
Hector Santiago MIN DET 182 4.7 5.07 1.36 36.36% 18.3% 10.1% 1.63 34.1%
James Shields CHW CLE 181.2 5.85 5.12 1.6 45.45% 16.4% 10.0% 1.98 40.4%
Matt Harvey NYM PHI 92.2 4.86 4.31 1.47 35.29% 18.9% 6.2% 0.78 40.8%
William Davis CIN PIT
Lance Lynn STL WAS
Wily Peralta MIL TOR 127.2 4.86 4.51 1.53 30.43% 16.8% 7.8% 1.34 50.0%
Bartolo Colon ATL MIA 191.2 3.43 4.37 1.21 48.48% 16.2% 4.1% 1.13 43.2%
Dylan Bundy BAL BOS 109.2 4.02 4.23 1.38 21.43% 21.9% 8.9% 1.48 35.9%
Jered Weaver SDP COL 178 5.06 5.44 1.46 35.48% 13.4% 6.7% 1.87 28.8%
Cole Hamels TEX LAA 200.2 3.32 3.99 1.31 56.25% 23.6% 9.1% 1.08 49.6%
Joe Musgrove HOU SEA 62 4.06 3.98 1.21 40.00% 21.5% 6.3% 1.31 43.4%
Robbie Ray ARI SFG 174.1 4.9 3.59 1.47 28.13% 28.1% 9.2% 1.24 45.7%
Matt Boyd DET MIN 97.1 4.53 4.38 1.29 27.78% 19.9% 7.0% 1.57 38.1%
Carlos Carrasco CLE CHW 146.1 3.32 3.44 1.15 44.00% 25.0% 5.7% 1.29 48.5%
Clay Buchholz PHI NYM 139.1 4.78 5.09 1.33 38.10% 15.8% 9.4% 1.36 41.2%
Jameson Taillon PIT CIN 104 3.38 3.61 1.12 50.00% 20.3% 4.1% 1.13 52.4%
Gio Gonzalez WAS STL 177.1 4.57 3.96 1.34 40.63% 22.4% 7.7% 0.96 47.6%
J.A. Happ TOR MIL 195 3.18 4.28 1.17 53.13% 20.5% 7.5% 1.02 42.5%
Dan Straily MIA ATL 191.1 3.76 4.67 1.19 45.16% 20.5% 9.2% 1.46 32.0%
Drew Pomeranz BOS BAL 170.2 3.32 3.8 1.18 46.67% 26.5% 9.3% 1.16 46.2%
Antonio Senzatela COL SDP
Tyler Skaggs LAA TEX 49.2 4.17 4.36 1.49 30.00% 22.8% 10.5% 0.91 43.0%
Ariel Miranda SEA HOU 58 3.88 4.77 1.12 40.00% 19.0% 7.8% 1.86 31.2%
Jeff Samardzija SFG ARI 203.1 3.81 4.13 1.2 46.88% 20.1% 6.5% 1.06 46.5%


ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

N/A. Carlos Carrasco is going in the morning (west coast bias) and he is the only starting pitcher that I would consider for the top tier. His price tag is playable at $9800, and rostering Carrasco is extra tasty when considering that it’s a home game against the White Sox and their bottom-third offense. It’s almost worth doing a an All-day tourney just to get Carrasco in there.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Cole Hamels TEX (at LAA, $10,000) – Hamels tossed a baseline quality start (6 IP, 3 ER) against the Indians in his 2017 debut, needing just 91 pitches to get the 18 outs and notching four strikeouts along the way. He only walked one, which is notable following his spike in walk-rate last season, though he also hit a batter. Hamels offers consistency, stamina and a high floor of expected performance, making him the safest overall play among today’s starting pitchers, particularly with the opportunity of pitching at Angel Stadium rather than the Ballpark in Arlington, as Hamels has compiled just a 4.19 ERA in 156.2 career innings in his Rangers home park (he has a 2.25 ERA in two starts in Anaheim). The price tag is a bit steep, particularly for a pitcher who lacks theoretical upside, but the dearth of other trustworthy options puts his services at more of a premium.

Jameson Taillon PIT (vs. CIN, $8,900) – Taillon had an exceptional debut to 2017, holding the robust offense of the Boston Red Sox to zero runs over 7.0 frames at Fenway Park, including seven baserunners and six strikeouts in the ballgame. He gets a much easier assignment this time around, taking on a rebuilding Reds squad, and though Cincy proved too much for rookie Tyler Glasnow yesterday, that game involved a self-implosion by Glasnow that would elevate just about any offense when facing a pitcher who has lost the ability to locate. Taillon went 95 pitches deep in his first game and should push past the century mark today if performance dictates.

Matt Harvey NYM (at PHI, $8,300) – Harvey had an excellent start to the 2017 season, allowing just three hits and zero walks over 6.2 innings against the Braves, though he did give up a couple runs due to two of those three hits leaving the ballpark. His K-count was a respectable though unimpressive four batters (out of 22 faced), and though the performance was certainly a sigh of relief following his disaster campaign of 2016, some folks are jumping the gun to reappoint the Dark Knight as the protector of Gotham. Considering the opponent, the homers and the modest strikeout tally, I think that Harvey has more to prove before re-entering the circle of trust. That said, today brings a soft offense on the heels of a solid start at a very respectable price tag, upping the incentive to enlist the right-hander. The risks of implosion are very real, however.

Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. ARI, $8,900) – Samardzija was toppled by the Diamondbacks in Arizona last week giving up six runs and eight hits (including three homers) in 5.1 innings, but the difference in venue is stark enough to consider giving the Shark a second chance to bite. Consider that batters slugged a combined .472 at Chase Field last season, the highest rate in baseball by 16 points for a venue outside of Colorado. In contrast, batters slugged just .398 at AT&T Park last season with just 119 home runs, the lowest total in baseball. If the venue helps to keep the ball in the yard then Samardzija should enjoy a much better stat-line in his second go-around versus Arizona.


Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher Team Opp wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG SIERA BABIP FIP
Hector Santiago MIN DET 0.33 4.3 0.333 4.8 0.241 5.07 0.26 5.31
James Shields CHW CLE 0.37 4.52 0.384 7.09 0.284 5.12 0.302 6.01
Matt Harvey NYM PHI 0.365 5.29 0.313 4.4 0.295 4.31 0.353 3.47
William Davis CIN PIT
Lance Lynn STL WAS
Wily Peralta MIL TOR 0.374 4.74 0.357 4.98 0.299 4.51 0.336 4.71
Bartolo Colon ATL MIA 0.335 4.01 0.286 2.87 0.265 4.37 0.291 3.99
Dylan Bundy BAL BOS 0.323 3.97 0.336 4.09 0.256 4.23 0.299 4.7
Jered Weaver SDP COL 0.365 5.21 0.365 4.94 0.294 5.44 0.301 5.62
Cole Hamels TEX LAA 0.271 3.1 0.316 3.38 0.242 3.99 0.299 3.98
Joe Musgrove HOU SEA 0.352 5.13 0.302 3.28 0.249 3.98 0.289 4.18
Robbie Ray ARI SFG 0.298 4.8 0.343 4.94 0.265 3.59 0.352 3.76
Matt Boyd DET MIN 0.266 3.5 0.341 4.76 0.256 4.38 0.286 4.75
Carlos Carrasco CLE CHW 0.313 2.44 0.294 4.05 0.238 3.44 0.289 3.72
Clay Buchholz PHI NYM 0.342 5.34 0.3 4.3 0.246 5.09 0.263 5.06
Jameson Taillon PIT CIN 0.314 2.82 0.285 3.91 0.249 3.61 0.287 3.71
Gio Gonzalez WAS STL 0.28 4.66 0.326 4.54 0.257 3.96 0.316 3.76
J.A. Happ TOR MIL 0.287 4.12 0.292 2.95 0.23 4.28 0.268 3.96
Dan Straily MIA ATL 0.29 3.87 0.322 3.67 0.218 4.67 0.239 4.88
Drew Pomeranz BOS BAL 0.284 2.03 0.287 3.78 0.215 3.8 0.268 3.8
Antonio Senzatela COL SDP
Tyler Skaggs LAA TEX 0.344 4.09 0.323 4.19 0.263 4.36 0.331 3.95
Ariel Miranda SEA HOU 0.372 4.22 0.297 3.8 0.22 4.77 0.222 5.25
Jeff Samardzija SFG ARI 0.331 4.59 0.276 3.1 0.245 4.13 0.285 3.85


CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. STL, $8,100) – It seems that the fantasy community is pretty down on Gio following his tumultuous campaign of 2016, in which he posted an unsightly 4.57 ERA, but it was the first full season of his career in which Gonzalez posted an ERA above 3.80 after six straight seasons below that mark. The run-prevention metric had been on a decline for five straight years, so the fear of a continued downward slope is understandable, but what made last season truly different was a rate of 1.0 HR/9 that was nearly double his rate from the previous six seasons. The Ks remained solid and his walks dipped to 3.0 BB/9 for the first time since he had become a regular starter, so there were reasons for optimism if we looked hard enough. All of this is to say that the consensus view on Gio is likely lower than his expected value, and in that context his six scoreless innings (with seven strikeouts against one walk) versus the Marlins in his debut were rather unsurprising. He faces a tougher challenge in today’s matchup with the Cards, but I expect that the southpaw will earn his salary once again.

Dylan Bundy BAL (at BOS, $6,800) – Bundy was nothing short of excellent in his first start of the 2017 season, tossing 7.0 frames with just four hits and one run allowed against the division-rival Blue Jays, striking out eight batters without issuing a free pass. The O’s stretched Bundy out for 99 pitches in his first start of the year, tying the most pitches that he threw in any single game last season, while the seven complete innings marked a feat that he accomplished just once in 2017. The opponent and the ballpark instigate some worry for today’s line, but the Red Sox are one David Ortiz short of last season’s prolific lineup while top threat Mookie Betts has been fighting the flu and has yet to hit his stride at the plate. Between the Red Sox lineup taking a step back, Bundy’s stamina taking a step up and a price tag that leaves plenty of room for profit, the right-hander presents a fairly enticing opportunity for DFS gamers today.

J.A. Happ TOR (vs. MIL, $8,000) – Happ struck out nine batters against the Orioles last week, a K-count that he equaled or bettered in just three of his 32 starts last season (none of which were in the first three months of the season), and the zero walks on his stat-line were accomplished just twice in 2017. The efficiency resulted in seven complete frames that required just 89 pitches, and the light-hitting Brewers present a much lower threat to the ERA (Happ did give up two homers to the O’s) while offering the potential to post another impressive K-count. I’m not big on Happ in general this season, so long as last season’s win-loss record and outlier run prevention are baked into his cost, but on a day full of pitchers with scary downside, he offers a relatively-safe value proposition.

Robbie Ray ARI (at SF, $9,200) – Ray picked up right where he left off last season, walking three batters against six strikeouts in 5.2 innings of his debut, including three runs allowed on three hits (one home run). Just like Samardzija, Ray gets a boost in value with the change in venue from last week’s meeting between the two teams, especially given last season’s struggles with the longball and the homer-suppressing ways of AT&T Park. That said, he’s going to have a hard time living up to the $9200 price tag, which is higher than his opponent on the mound despite Ray having the spottier track record. Investors seem to be chasing the strikeouts while anticipating improvements in the number of baserunners he allows, but the southpaw has yet to verify that optimism with trustworthy performance. Consider that in September of last season, Ray was tattooed to the tune of a 7.98 ERA and 49 baserunners over just 29.1 innings pitched (a 1.67 WHIP).

Joe Musgrove HOU (at SEA, $7,700) – Musgrove might be fighting for his rotation spot, which he hopes to hold onto once COllin McHugh is ready to reclaim his usual role. His first start of the season was against these Mariners and contained a mix bag of results, with two runs allowed over 5.0 frames but just two strikeouts against three walks on the day. Musgrove is typically a control artist, so perhaps the high walk count was an aberration, but he’ll want to at least flip the K and walk numbers in order to stay in good graces with Houston’s coaching staff. Musgrove is more of a high-floor guy than one with a high ceiling of expected performance, but his ceiling will be raised a bit as the Astros extend his leash, as Musgrove needed just 84 pitches to get through his five innings last start and will likely cross the 90-pitch threshold in today’s game.

Drew Pomeranz BOS (vs. BAL, $7,300) – Pomeranz started the season on the DL so today marks his 2017 debut, facing a power-hungry Orioles lineup in a home ballpark that has very short porches, leaving him vulnerable to crooked numbers if the Baltimore bats are able to elevate down the lines. Expect Pomeranz to be on a pitch limit this time around, making it tougher for him to turn a profit.

Lance Lynn STL (at WAS, $6,300)

Dan Straily MIA (vs. ATL, $7,500)

Bartolo Colon ATL (at MIA, $6,600)

Ariel Miranda SEA (vs. HOU, $6,100)

Wily Peralta MIL (at TOR, $5,800)

Antonio Senzatela COL (vs. SD, $5,000)

Tyler Skaggs LAA (vs. TEX, $7,800)

Rookie Davis CIN (at PIT, $4,700)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Clay Buchholz PHI (vs. NYM, $5,500)

Jered Weaver SD (at COL, $4,200) – The cost is as low as it gets for a starting pitcher, but when the expectation is negative points, then any cost is too high. Weaver could be $100 on DraftKings when he’s pitching in Colorado and I still wouldn’t invest in his services.

About the Author

DougThorburn
Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn)

Doug Thorburn’s work can be found elsewhere at Baseball Prospectus and Rotowire, and he is also the co-host of the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast. Thorburn’s expertise lies on the mound, where he tackles the world of pitching with an emphasis on mechanical evaluation. He spent five years at the National Pitching Association working under pitching coach Tom House, where Thorburn ran the hi-speed motion analysis program in addition to serving as an instructor. Thorburn and House wrote the 2009 book, “Arm Action, Arm Path, and the Perfect Pitch: Building a Million Dollar Arm,” using data from hi-speed motion analysis to tackle conventional wisdom in baseball.