Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, April 12th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-04-13 02:01:27

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Nicasio	PIT	DET	152	4.80	4.06	1.51	35.7%	19.1%	9.4%	1.18	1.35
Sanchez	DET	PIT	283	4.29	3.87	1.20	41.2%	20.4%	6.7%	1.05	1.14
Corbin	ARI	LAD	85	3.60	3.44	1.27		21.9%	4.8%	0.95	1.59
Maeda	LAD	ARI
Chacin	ATL	WAS	90	4.80	4.62	1.39	18.2%	16.5%	9.9%	1.20	1.27
Gonzalez	WAS	ATL	334.1	3.69	3.64	1.32	46.7%	23.5%	8.9%	0.48	1.60
Erlin	SDP	PHI	78.1	4.94	3.92	1.33	37.5%	17.0%	5.2%	0.80	1.36
Morton	PHI	SDP	286.1	4.21	3.80	1.32	50.0%	18.1%	8.0%	0.69	2.54
Tanaka	NYY	TOR	290.1	3.16	3.03	1.02	66.7%	24.3%	4.2%	1.24	1.48
Sanchez	TOR	NYY	125.1	2.66	3.95	1.13		17.6%	10.6%	0.72	2.93
Wright	BAL	BOS	44.2	6.04	5.28	1.57		12.8%	8.8%	1.81	0.88
Buchholz	BOS	BAL	283.2	4.51	3.75	1.31	33.3%	19.8%	6.4%	0.73	1.44
Kluber	CLE	TBR	457.2	2.95	2.80	1.08	57.1%	28.0%	5.2%	0.71	1.37
Moore	TBR	CLE	73	5.05	4.72	1.53		16.2%	8.7%	1.23	1.08
Fernandez	MIA	NYM	116.1	2.71	2.51	1.07	75.0%	31.7%	5.7%	0.62	1.34
Syndergaard	NYM	MIA	150	3.24	2.95	1.05		27.5%	5.1%	1.14	1.38
Medlen	KCR	HOU	58.1	4.01	4.28	1.27		16.5%	7.4%	0.93	1.50
Fiers	HOU	KCR	252	3.25	3.60	1.15		24.7%	7.8%	1.11	0.84
Samardzija	SFG	COL	433.2	3.96	3.64	1.18	60.0%	20.4%	5.1%	1.02	1.25
Chatwood	COL	SFG	24	4.50	3.77	1.21	25.0%	19.8%	7.9%	1.50	1.78
Santiago	LAA	OAK	308	3.65	4.45	1.30	16.7%	20.5%	9.4%	1.29	0.58
Graveman	OAK	LAA	120.1	4.04	4.32	1.40		15.6%	7.3%	1.12	1.82
Holland	TEX	SEA	95.2	3.57	4.19	1.20		16.9%	5.6%	1.03	1.11
Miley	SEA	TEX	395	4.40	3.94	1.38	33.3%	19.5%	8.2%	0.91	1.71

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. MIA) – Syndergaard was the hardest-throwing starting pitcher in the majors last season, averaging an incredible 97.71 mph on his fastball. Many pitchers take some time to find their peak velocity within season, but apparently Thor is not one of those players – in his first start of 2016, he upped the ante with an average weighted fastball velocity (four-seamers and sinkers) of 98.7 mph, topping out at an even 100.0 ticks of gas. He struck out nine batters in 6.0 innings in that first outing, which is impressive enough on its surface, but the fact that the domination occurred at the expense of the World Champion Kansas City Royals – an offense that had by far the fewest strikeouts in baseball in each of the past two seasons – raises the level from merely impressive to otherworldly. He even threw a “slider” at greater than 95 mph. Ridiculous.

Corey Kluber CLE (at TB) – Ranking Kluber anywhere but at the top of this list is difficult, as I see a pitcher who struck out 514 batters against just 96 walks over the last two seasons, and whose modest ERA and terrible won-loss record of 2015 are misleading indicators of his talent level. His first start of the year was less than magical, with Kluber giving up four runs in 5.1 innings against the Red Sox, surrounding a pair of home runs in the process. The Red Sox have a stellar offense, which adds a bit of a caveat to Kluber’s poor performance on Opening Day, but his pedestrian pitching line did little to inspire confidence. Today he shifts to the worst offense in the division, and I expect the right-hander to take advantage of the Rays weak offense to post an excellent pitching line that balances out his initial start of the year.

Jose Fernandez MIA (at NYM) – If you want upside, then look no further. The key to an outlandish DFS score is pitcher strikeouts, and perhaps no pitcher in baseball represents bigger K upside than Fern. He was touched up a bit in his first start, giving up five runs in 5.2 innings against the Tigers. Detroit has a formidable offense that can make any pitcher look bad on a given day, and at first glance Fern’s first start appears to be a failure, but his fantasy line was spared by his whiffing 13 batters among his 17 outs that day. If he gets too K-happy then it can have an adverse impact on his innings count, due to the pitch count that’s necessary to ring up strikeouts. Regardless of Fern’s ultimate performance, this is the game to watch this week, with two of the brightest start in the game today squaring off in a divisional battle of the NL East.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. ATL) – There’s a massive cliff from the Fernandez level down to Raise candidate Gonzalez, who lives in a land of too many walks and not enough strikeouts, but facing the hapless Braves has a way of elevating any pitcher’s stock. Gonzalez is coming off of a rough campaign in 2015, so it’s easy to forget that from 2010 to 2014 he compiled a composite ERA of 3.22 and struck out nearly a batter-per-inning, with just 0.6 HR/9. His WHIP was an unsightly 1.42 last season, but he kept the fantasy-relevant measure at 1.25 or lower in each of the previous three seasons, utilizing a consistently-low hit rate to balance out the heavy dose of walks. He gets a relatively easy task in his first official start of 2016, and this ranking is banking on his return to previous levels of performance.

Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. ARI) – Maeda was only lightly heralded as he came over to the Dodgers from Japan, particularly when compared to some of his more-heralded countrymen in their first seasons stateside, but Maeda burst out of the gate in his first start with six shutout frames against the Padres last Wednesday. He gave up no walks and just four hits (all singles), striking out four batters in an incredibly efficient outing that only required 84 pitches to get the quality start. I wouldn’t expect a pile of strikeouts and the Diamondbacks will likely pose a more daunting task to overcome than did the Pads, but Maeda looks to be a surprisingly safe option who limits baserunners on the bags and crossing the plate.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Nicasio	0.393	5.13	0.323	4.31	0.291	0.803	0.320	4.44	0.275	0.00	19.1%
Sanchez	0.251	2.48	0.336	5.56	0.234	0.642	0.278	3.83	0.238	98.49	20.4%
Corbin			0.340	4.13	0.239	0.651	0.327	3.35	0.269	78.38	21.9%
Maeda					0.256	0.693
Chacin	0.334	6.18	0.319	3.68	0.239	0.669	0.279	4.77	0.253	0.00	16.5%
Gonzalez	0.284	3.79	0.308	3.75	0.238	0.682	0.319	3.04	0.246	96.03	23.5%
Erlin	0.327	6.11	0.329	4.19	0.281	0.756	0.324	3.59	0.281	0.00	17.0%
Morton	0.302	3.66	0.297	3.60	0.244	0.694	0.301	3.93	0.255	91.82	18.1%
Tanaka	0.280	2.41	0.289	3.04	0.235	0.718	0.269	3.54	0.227	97.70	24.3%
Sanchez	0.223	1.54	0.189	1.83	0.228	0.694	0.225	4.13	0.198	29.45	17.6%
Wright			0.361	6.56	0.257	0.714	0.295	6.13	0.287	0.00	12.8%
Buchholz	0.351	5.12	0.313	4.99	0.281	0.835	0.320	3.47	0.266	0.00	19.8%
Kluber	0.304	2.53	0.242	2.72	0.235	0.684	0.307	2.65	0.23	102.62	28.0%
Moore			0.365	4.38	0.226	0.638	0.325	4.81	0.29	0.00	16.2%
Fernandez	0.301	1.85	0.188	2.71	0.235	0.653	0.313	2.21	0.22	93.63	31.7%
Syndergaard			0.262	2.77	0.261	0.676	0.279	3.25	0.221	99.17	27.5%
Medlen			0.292	3.95	0.244	0.747	0.282	4.13	0.251	61.80	16.5%
Fiers	0.234	2.23	0.303	3.43	0.311	0.817	0.268	3.74	0.219	92.53	24.7%
Samardzija	0.292	2.58	0.290	3.67	0.284	0.772	0.293	3.71	0.25	102.74	20.4%
Chatwood	0.218	3.00			0.245	0.673	0.254	4.88	0.231	0.00	19.8%
Santiago	0.274	2.34	0.324	4.18	0.206	0.543	0.267	4.57	0.233	86.27	20.5%
Graveman			0.337	4.74	0.227	0.624	0.302	4.48	0.273	75.35	15.6%
Holland			0.325	3.32	0.251	0.735	0.287	4.10	0.256	92.56	16.9%
Miley	0.326	5.32	0.331	4.33	0.240	0.700	0.312	3.90	0.263	98.63	19.5%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Patrick Corbin ARI (at LAD) – It’s easy to forget just how dominant Corbin was a couple of years ago, but just as his skills were burgeoning on the biggest stage his UCL gave out, requiring Tommy John surgery that kept him off the mound and off the radar. His first start of 2016 looked great when keeping the blinders on and looking at just the strike-zone numbers, as Corbin struck out six batters versus zero walks in 7.0 innings. The third true outcome did him in, though, with three homers allowed against the Rockies. The bomb given up to Trevor Story is certainly excusable, as he’s seeing beach balls at the plate right now, and Ryan Raburn expansive history of mashing lefties helps to explain homer number three. Between those shots was a home run given up to DJ LeMaheiu, which would be more forgivable if it were hit in Colorado. He faces a better offense today against the Dodgers, and though a repeat of the K- and walk-counts would be more than acceptable, Corbin will need to keep the ball in the yard.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at TOR) – Tanaka seems to be pitching on borrowed time, given that he has a known UCL tear that will require surgery at some point down the road, so in that sense he is a ticking time bomb that could explode at any moment. This hurts his value in season-long leagues, but as long as Tanaka is on the mound I expect him to continue being a force on the mound, making him a generally safe play in DFS. Against any other team, I would value Tanaka as a Raise candidate, but the Blue Jays have the top offense in the game and pose a threat to any pitcher in baseball. Tanaka’s biggest weakness last year was giving up home runs, a vulnerability that will be magnified pitching in the Rogers Centre against the powerful lineup if the Jays.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. NYY) – Sanchez had to fight to earn a spot in the starting rotation to begin the season, and his bullpen-heavy past and developmental hurdles in terms of stuff and mechanics threatened to slow down his ascent to the rotation. It remains to be seen whether he can handle a starter’s workload, but Sanchez certainly looked the part in his first outing of the year. He had a soft landing against the light-hitting Rays, but Sanchez struck out eight batters over 7.0 innings with zero walks and just five hits allowed. He surrendered just one run, that being a solo home run by new Ray Corey Dickerson. Sanchez gets a tougher lineup this time around, but the elements of his last start inspire confidence that Sanchez can step it up against the pinstripes.

Matt Moore TB (vs. CLE) – Moore was extremely inconsistent last year. He returned from injury in early July and was a mechanical mess. He pitched 5.0 innings or fewer in each of his first eight starts, gave up three or more runs in each of the first six contests and walked multiple batters in the first five. He rounded back into form for his last few starts of the year, but what version of Moore showed in 2016 was a complete mystery, His first outing of this year failed to inspire confidence and looked too much like July of ’15, with three runs allowed in just 5.0 innings and free passes given to two batters. The Indians offense might not strike much fear into opposing pitchers, but Moore represents a significant risk to the DFS bottom line regardless of the team that he is facing.

Anibal Sanchez DET (vs. PIT)

Derek Holland TEX (at SEA)

Hector Santiago LAA (at OAK)

Clay Buchholz BOS (vs. BAL)

Mike Fiers HOU (vs. KC)

Charlie Morton PHI (vs. SD)

Robbie Erlin SD (at PHI)

Wade Miley SEA (vs. TEX)

Juan Nicasio PIT (at DET)

Kendall Graveman OAK (vs. LAA)