Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, July 7th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find a needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray | OAK | NYY | 326.2 | 2.76 | 3.46 | 1.13 | 60.0% | 21.2% | 7.6% | 0.55 | 2.00 |
| Eovaldi | NYY | OAK | 287.1 | 4.42 | 3.95 | 1.40 | 50.0% | 16.5% | 5.5% | 0.69 | 1.49 |
| Cueto | CIN | WAS | 348.1 | 2.43 | 3.15 | 0.95 | 76.2% | 24.9% | 6.2% | 0.85 | 1.28 |
| Scherzer | WAS | CIN | 339 | 2.68 | 2.78 | 1.04 | 60.0% | 28.8% | 5.7% | 0.66 | 0.83 |
| Ross | SDP | PIT | 297.1 | 3.09 | 3.30 | 1.29 | 66.7% | 24.4% | 10.0% | 0.48 | 2.86 |
| Liriano | PIT | SDP | 264.2 | 3.23 | 3.37 | 1.19 | 12.5% | 26.3% | 10.5% | 0.75 | 2.02 |
| Velasquez | HOU | CLE | 25.2 | 4.21 | 4.28 | 1.32 | 24.5% | 11.3% | 0.70 | 0.39 | |
| Kluber | CLE | HOU | 354.1 | 2.84 | 2.60 | 1.11 | 57.1% | 28.7% | 5.2% | 0.58 | 1.54 |
| Haren | MIA | BOS | 285 | 3.82 | 3.86 | 1.13 | 30.0% | 18.4% | 4.6% | 1.33 | 0.91 |
| Miley | BOS | MIA | 290.2 | 4.40 | 3.93 | 1.41 | 33.3% | 19.5% | 8.8% | 0.96 | 1.67 |
| Beeler | CHC | STL | |||||||||
| Lyons | STL | CHC | 59.2 | 4.68 | 3.23 | 1.32 | 50.0% | 24.5% | 6.9% | 1.36 | 1.14 |
| Ray | ARI | TEX | 71 | 4.82 | 4.33 | 1.41 | 33.3% | 17.4% | 7.2% | 0.89 | 0.79 |
| Gallardo | TEX | ARI | 294.1 | 3.18 | 3.85 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 17.7% | 6.9% | 0.86 | 1.76 |
| Moore | TBR | KCR | 14.2 | 4.30 | 4.79 | 1.57 | 15.4% | 10.8% | 0.61 | 1.43 | |
| Young | KCR | TBR | 240 | 3.34 | 5.14 | 1.16 | 47.4% | 15.7% | 8.2% | 1.24 | 0.41 |
| Banuelos | ATL | MIL | |||||||||
| Garza | MIL | ATL | 262.1 | 4.36 | 4.17 | 1.32 | 35.0% | 17.3% | 7.4% | 0.99 | 1.28 |
| Doubront | TOR | CHW | 82 | 5.49 | 4.80 | 1.55 | 20.0% | 13.9% | 8.9% | 1.32 | 0.99 |
| Quintana | CHW | TOR | 299.2 | 3.48 | 3.58 | 1.28 | 50.0% | 20.9% | 6.2% | 0.54 | 1.36 |
| Gausman | BAL | MIN | 136.2 | 3.49 | 4.04 | 1.29 | 37.5% | 19.0% | 8.0% | 0.59 | 1.14 |
| Gibson | MIN | BAL | 280 | 3.95 | 4.17 | 1.29 | 52.6% | 14.6% | 7.7% | 0.71 | 2.09 |
| Heaney | LAA | COL | 42.1 | 4.46 | 3.82 | 1.13 | 25.0% | 18.5% | 5.8% | 1.49 | 1.20 |
| Bettis | COL | LAA | 86 | 5.23 | 4.15 | 1.53 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 0.84 | 1.66 | |
| Ryan | DET | SEA | 38 | 4.03 | 4.76 | 1.37 | 12.0% | 9.4% | 1.18 | 1.76 | |
| Walker | SEA | DET | 129.1 | 3.83 | 3.67 | 1.28 | 22.6% | 8.0% | 1.04 | 1.14 | |
| Billingsley | PHI | LAD | 21 | 7.71 | 5.16 | 1.86 | 8.0% | 6.0% | 1.29 | 1.44 | |
| Anderson | LAD | PHI | 139.1 | 2.97 | 3.30 | 1.30 | 20.0% | 17.3% | 6.9% | 0.52 | 3.31 |
| Colon | NYM | SFG | 301.1 | 4.24 | 3.71 | 1.22 | 42.1% | 18.2% | 3.3% | 1.08 | 1.02 |
| Cain | SFG | NYM | 95.1 | 4.44 | 4.26 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 18.1% | 9.0% | 1.42 | 1.28 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Max Scherzer WAS (vs. CIN) – Halfway through the regular season, the right-hander is blazing a trail towards the NL Cy Young. He currently leads the league in K-to-walk ratio (9.9-to-one), WHIP (0.775), FIP (1.94), and innings pitched (118.7). He’s also second in the Senior Circuit in ERA (1.82) and strikeouts (139). There are no signs of slowing down, with a four game run of a 0.52 ERA and 42 punchouts against a single walk, tossing at least 8.0 innings in each turn. Don’t be surprised if some Cincy hitters decide to take a day off.
Corey Kluber CLE (vs. HOU) – He’s been somewhat vulnerable lately, as opponents have scored between two and four runs against Kluber in each of his past seven starts, but he’s worth rostering today with or without a slight discount. He has struck out 24 batters and walked just a pair over his last two starts covering 15.0 innings, racking up the fantasy points despite his giving up three runs in each ballgame, and though Houston has a formidable lineup they are also dealing with the temporary loss of George Springer.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Johnny Cueto CIN (at WAS) – The Cueto trade tour continues with a trip through our nation’s capital, and he has rebounded from a barking elbow in late May to rattle off a 2.52 ERA and five-to-one ratio of strikeouts to walks since the calendar flipped to June. Cueto could be starting his final game in a Reds uniform if Cincy can find a trade partner between now and the end of the All Star break, but for his part the right-hander is doing his part to maintain a string five straight seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA.
Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. SD) – The southpaw’s 2015 season has officially reached breakout status. His K rate of 27.9 percent is the highest since he was pitching with his original UCL, his 2.99 ERA the lowest since he went under the knife, and the 8.4 percent walk rate is the lowest in five years. He is also allowing hits at a lower frequency than any other season of his career, both in general and among those of the extra-base variety. He’s still prone to the occasional blowup, including three starts of five or more earned runs this season, and the strikeouts have been especially inconsistent this season. He struck out between seven and nine batters in each of his first four starts this year, yet in his 12 turns since Liriano has turned in a Jekyll and Hyde act with four starts of double-digit K’s while each of the other games (eight total) have drifted toward the extremes with either double-digit K’s or falling within the range of a half-dozen strikeouts or less.
Sonny Gray OAK (at NYY) – Gray returns from an illness that was severe enough to require a hospital stay, and there is the possibility that the A’s ease him back into action with an abbreviated outing. Between the chance of limited innings and the risk of his performance being physically compromised, Gray’s stock takes a slight hit in today’s standings. His 2015 season has been dominant, and he earns the benefit of the doubt by staying under the Raise umbrella until his on-field performance suggests otherwise.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray | 0.277 | 2.57 | 0.261 | 2.97 | 0.259 | 0.754 | 0.271 | 3.20 | 0.221 | 99.86 | 21.2% |
| Eovaldi | 0.352 | 4.49 | 0.302 | 4.34 | 0.267 | 0.736 | 0.332 | 3.49 | 0.286 | 95.55 | 16.5% |
| Cueto | 0.247 | 2.06 | 0.271 | 2.76 | 0.258 | 0.731 | 0.237 | 3.29 | 0.193 | 106.18 | 24.9% |
| Scherzer | 0.284 | 3.02 | 0.248 | 2.26 | 0.251 | 0.713 | 0.292 | 2.53 | 0.216 | 108.00 | 28.8% |
| Ross | 0.312 | 3.26 | 0.276 | 2.94 | 0.260 | 0.705 | 0.308 | 3.16 | 0.233 | 100.96 | 24.4% |
| Liriano | 0.304 | 4.44 | 0.270 | 2.94 | 0.238 | 0.669 | 0.268 | 3.39 | 0.205 | 94.69 | 26.3% |
| Velasquez | 0.309 | 3.24 | 0.326 | 6.00 | 0.246 | 0.707 | 0.303 | 3.48 | 0.234 | 92.20 | 24.5% |
| Kluber | 0.316 | 2.96 | 0.245 | 2.73 | 0.243 | 0.740 | 0.324 | 2.38 | 0.237 | 103.27 | 28.7% |
| Haren | 0.307 | 3.62 | 0.307 | 4.02 | 0.263 | 0.734 | 0.266 | 4.16 | 0.242 | 96.46 | 18.4% |
| Miley | 0.304 | 4.86 | 0.337 | 4.26 | 0.269 | 0.745 | 0.313 | 4.02 | 0.264 | 96.14 | 19.5% |
| Lyons | 0.256 | 4.73 | 0.347 | 4.66 | 0.260 | 0.737 | 0.310 | 3.94 | 0.253 | 60.44 | 24.5% |
| Ray | 0.363 | 4.02 | 0.345 | 5.04 | 0.232 | 0.672 | 0.320 | 3.87 | 0.277 | 78.31 | 17.4% |
| Gallardo | 0.281 | 2.71 | 0.306 | 3.59 | 0.262 | 0.724 | 0.281 | 3.78 | 0.245 | 100.16 | 17.7% |
| Moore | 0.392 | 9.82 | 0.312 | 2.45 | 0.264 | 0.692 | 0.319 | 4.07 | 0.276 | 88.33 | 15.4% |
| Young | 0.339 | 3.31 | 0.262 | 3.36 | 0.236 | 0.663 | 0.230 | 4.66 | 0.219 | 82.94 | 15.7% |
| Banuelos | 0.320 | 0.00 | 0.107 | 0.213 | 0.639 | ||||||
| Garza | 0.319 | 3.98 | 0.313 | 4.67 | 0.263 | 0.700 | 0.288 | 4.08 | 0.254 | 93.23 | 17.3% |
| Doubront | 0.372 | 5.92 | 0.354 | 5.31 | 0.223 | 0.575 | 0.299 | 5.05 | 0.278 | 63.32 | 13.9% |
| Quintana | 0.287 | 4.38 | 0.312 | 3.17 | 0.309 | 0.875 | 0.324 | 3.00 | 0.262 | 104.02 | 20.9% |
| Gausman | 0.320 | 3.16 | 0.275 | 3.92 | 0.247 | 0.688 | 0.297 | 3.44 | 0.248 | 78.30 | 19.0% |
| Gibson | 0.311 | 3.71 | 0.295 | 4.20 | 0.252 | 0.732 | 0.280 | 3.94 | 0.25 | 94.17 | 14.6% |
| Heaney | 0.219 | 1.17 | 0.370 | 6.33 | 0.252 | 0.662 | 0.256 | 4.68 | 0.238 | 73.00 | 18.5% |
| Bettis | 0.327 | 5.44 | 0.380 | 4.99 | 0.246 | 0.693 | 0.326 | 3.99 | 0.284 | 48.26 | 16.2% |
| Ryan | 0.347 | 4.22 | 0.330 | 3.95 | 0.242 | 0.678 | 0.267 | 4.99 | 0.257 | 47.77 | 12.0% |
| Walker | 0.311 | 3.40 | 0.309 | 4.50 | 0.279 | 0.755 | 0.298 | 3.87 | 0.245 | 86.46 | 22.6% |
| Billingsley | 0.559 | 13.50 | 0.269 | 5.02 | 0.255 | 0.778 | 0.361 | 5.04 | 0.351 | 84.00 | 8.0% |
| Anderson | 0.295 | 4.03 | 0.308 | 2.47 | 0.263 | 0.706 | 0.318 | 3.32 | 0.269 | 88.04 | 17.3% |
| Colon | 0.307 | 4.18 | 0.322 | 4.30 | 0.270 | 0.747 | 0.305 | 3.61 | 0.268 | 93.79 | 18.2% |
| Cain | 0.340 | 4.70 | 0.318 | 4.21 | 0.231 | 0.644 | 0.266 | 4.86 | 0.244 | 95.56 | 18.1% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Tyson Ross SD (at PIT) – His game log is almost comical, with Ross having allowed between one and four runs in every single start this season, but that mirage of consistency is hiding the wildness. Ross has walked an MLB-high 53 batters so far this season and leads the National League with seven wild pitches, and he’s walked five batters in three of his last four starts. The extra free passes come attached to a career-high K rate, a combination that reeks of dirty sliders that drop under the zone and skip past his catchers. Ross has always kept the ball in the yard, but his current homer rate of 0.7 percent is likely unsustainable.
Yovani Gallardo TEX (vs. ARI) – Maybe it’s the Texas heat, or perhaps he just had to get out of Milwaukee, but there’s something about playing in the American League that agrees with Gallardo. He hasn’t allowed a run in four consecutive starts, and over the last eight games he carries a paltry 0.88 ERA. On the season he has a 2.56 ERA and 1.137 WHIP that are both career lows, but the peripheral stats are nothing special as the right-hander’s gains have been in the areas of hits and homers allowed. The Diamondbacks could reveal those issues with their quietly potent offense (quiet outside of Paul Goldschmidt anyway), and his low K rate effectively caps his fantasy point potential.
Jose Quintana CHW (vs. TOR) – Quintana is still recovering his stat-line from the nine-run shellacking that he endured at the hands of the Tigers back in April, but his ERA is slowly approaching previous standards as a run of seven consecutive quality starts has brought it down to 3.86 on the season. All of those efforts could be tarnished by a single outing, and the Blue Jays are just the team to play the role of spoiler. Toronto have destroyed lefties this season with a slash of .307/.374/.498 as a team, and Quintana should consider himself lucky if he escapes tonight’s gauntlet with minimal damage.
Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. DET) – Walker has transformed from the volatile wreck of the first couple months to a stable force for the Mariners in his last few starts. He is on an excellent run over the past six weeks, racking up a miniscule 1.68 ERA and a 6-1 record during the seven-start string, including a superb K-to-BB ratio of 51-to-3. His Tiger opponents will dent his perceived value heading into today’s game, but Detroit is now playing without franchise cornerstone Miguel Cabrera and the outcomes of this meeting eill likely have more to do with Walker’s pitch ah order).
Kevin Gausman BAL (at MIN) – Gausman’s first foray back into starting went very well, blanking the Rangers over 6.3 frames, punching out seven batters and allowing just six baserunners. The baseball world will breathe a little bit easier if the Orioles stop jerking him around and let the former fourth overall pick follow a normal development track as a starter at the major league level, so fingers are crossed that he will pitch effectively for a stretch to lock down a spot in the Baltimore rotation. He faces a Minnesota club tonight that has a slightly below-average offense and takes a small dent when facing right-handers, tilting the odds in Gausman’s favor.
Edinson Volquez KC (vs. TB) – He’s not the wild thing of his youth, with a three-year stretch of roughly league-average walk rates, but his avoidance of true outcomes extends to a K rate that has fallen under the 20-percent barrier for each of the last three seasons. He’s coming off of a weird start, with eight strikeouts in just 5.0 innings of work yet five runs and eight hits allowed against the Astros. In comparison, the Rays bring a lesser offense to the table that suffers further against right-handed pitching, but the unpredictable Volquez could struggle despite the peripheral advantages.
Matt Cain SF (vs. NYM) – His first game back was eerily similar to the performance that yielded a 4.08 ERA over the previous two seasons. Cain is a pitcher whose delivery is high on stability but low on power, and that difference was further exaggerated in his 2015 debut. Cain lives on the fringes of the strike zone, and if his stuff or his command are compromised then he could start sliding down a slippery slope.
Vincent Velasquez HOU (at CLE) – The rookie has been up and down in his first five big-league starts, with volatile displays of pitch command and showing his best run prevention on days when he is giving away free bags via the walk. His pitch count has been kept low regardless of outcome, topping 93 pitches just once and falling short of 90 throws in three of his five games. Velasquez will have to be careful with a number of Cleveland batters in order to escape tonight’s outing unscathed, as the lineup is stacked with high-end left-handed bats that take their aggressions out on right-handed pitchers.
Robbie Ray ARI (at TEX)
Nathan Eovaldi NYY (vs. OAK)
Brett Anderson LAD (vs. PHI)
Bartolo Colon NYM (at SF)
Dan Haren MIA (at BOS)
Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. BAL)
Wade Miley BOS (vs. MIA)
Manny Banuelos ATL (at MIL)
Matt Andriese TB (at KC)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Tyler Cravy MIL (vs. ATL)
Andrew Heaney LAA (at COL)
Tim Cooney STL (at CHC)
Felix Doubront TOR (at CHW)
Dallas Beeler CHC (vs. STL)
Chad Bettis COL (vs. LAA)
Kyle Ryan DET (at SEA)
Chad Billingsley PHI (at LAD)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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