Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, August 26th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-08-29 00:15:32

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
McHugh	HOU	NYY	313.2	3.36	3.55	1.15	42.9%	22.1%	6.4%	0.80	1.28
Pineda	NYY	HOU	194.1	3.15	3.11	1.07	75.0%	22.6%	2.8%	0.83	1.35
Bassitt	OAK	SEA	98.2	2.92	4.23	1.20		18.1%	7.8%	0.46	1.14
Hernandez	SEA	OAK	395	2.78	2.82	1.04	81.0%	25.4%	5.7%	0.73	2.16
Colon	NYM	PHI	347.1	4.43	3.84	1.26	42.1%	17.5%	3.3%	1.14	1.02
Eickhoff	PHI	NYM
Ross	SDP	WAS	347.1	3.03	3.29	1.29	66.7%	24.4%	9.8%	0.47	2.98
Gonzalez	WAS	SDP	289.2	3.76	3.62	1.32	46.7%	22.8%	8.6%	0.50	1.63
Santiago	LAA	DET	272.2	3.30	4.22	1.26	16.7%	21.0%	8.7%	1.12	0.61
Verlander	DET	LAA	283	4.36	4.14	1.33	35.0%	18.3%	6.9%	0.89	0.90
Anderson	LAD	CIN	184	3.38	3.47	1.32	20.0%	16.3%	6.7%	0.73	3.25
Holmberg	CIN	LAD	54.2	5.60	5.49	1.57		12.7%	11.9%	2.47	0.92
Nelson	MIL	CLE	224.1	4.01	3.86	1.29		19.8%	7.4%	0.88	1.59
Anderson	CLE	MIL	48	4.31	4.71	1.13		10.4%	4.2%	1.13	1.47
Duffey	MIN	TBR	15.2	4.60	3.79	1.47		23.9%	10.5%	1.15	1.83
Archer	TBR	MIN	363.2	3.07	3.28	1.15	55.0%	25.4%	7.7%	0.64	1.45
Flande	COL	ATL	104.2	4.64	3.73	1.20		14.5%	6.5%	1.12	2.70
Miller	ATL	COL	341.1	3.16	4.31	1.23	21.1%	18.6%	9.1%	0.82	1.19
Locke	PIT	MIA	265.2	4.23	4.16	1.36	66.7%	16.8%	8.0%	0.98	1.82
Narveson	MIA	PIT	11.2	3.86	3.04	0.94		26.7%	6.7%	3.09	0.63
Price	TOR	TEX	424.2	2.90	2.97	1.08	52.4%	25.7%	4.2%	0.85	1.06
Lewis	TEX	TOR	329.2	4.75	4.21	1.36	11.8%	17.5%	5.5%	1.26	0.76
Porcello	BOS	CHW	319.1	4.28	3.93	1.31	55.6%	16.5%	5.1%	1.07	1.50
Sale	CHW	BOS	338.1	2.74	2.45	1.00	64.3%	32.0%	5.4%	0.74	1.07
Chen	BAL	KCR	335	3.36	3.88	1.21	31.6%	18.5%	5.0%	1.26	1.04
Cueto	KCR	BAL	410.1	2.43	3.32	0.97	76.2%	23.8%	6.1%	0.77	1.24
Lackey	STL	ARI	363.2	3.44	3.82	1.24	57.9%	18.9%	5.7%	0.97	1.28
Corbin	ARI	STL	44	4.09	3.22	1.32		24.1%	5.9%	1.23	1.73
Hendricks	CHC	SFG	216.2	3.45	3.69	1.17		18.6%	5.2%	0.71	1.66
Peavy	SFG	CHC	264.2	3.88	4.16	1.28	42.1%	18.3%	7.2%	1.02	0.92

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Chris Archer TB (vs. MIN) – Archer has had a bit of a zig-zag pattern for his last 10 starts, trading double-digit strikeout gems with landmine starts that may or may not explode in his face. He put up a 50-point game on DraftKings in his last start, a one-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts and one walk, and three of the past five starts have resulted in 10 or more strikeouts for Archer with a hopscotch pattern of performance. Recent history tells us to watch out with the zag portion of his performance, as three times in his past 10 games it has resulted in five or more runs crossing the plate, including a pair of games with seven or more runs surrendered as his DK score sunk into negative territory. Tonight’s matchup with Minnesota would seemingly set him up to disrupt the zig-zag trend, especially given the Twins’ .285 wOBA, 649 OPS and 25.5-percent K rate over the last seven days.

David Price TOR (at TEX) – The move to the Jays made Price a good bet to snag a W every time that he takes the mound thanks to an almost unfair level of run support. His first four starts for Toronto have gone very well, with Price delivering 30.3 innings of 1.78 ERA baseball, including 33 strikeouts against six walks. The biggest risk in a Price start is that the opposition will swing early in the count and find a few gaps in the defense, as he experienced against the Yankees two turns ago, giving up 11 hits over 7.3 innings. He hasn’t seen the Rangers yet this season despite his pitching for two different AL clubs, but if Texas obliges with anything approaching their .266 wOBA and 607 OPS of the last seven days then Price should be in for a big score.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Sale CHW (vs. BOS) – It’s a weird day when Sale is not in the top tier, but the Red Sox have just been murdering every pitcher that they see recently. For his part, Sale has been wildly inconsistent, with a whopping 29 strikeouts across his last two ballgames yet breaking double-digits just once in the seven starts that preceded them and back-to-back outings of seven runs apiece in his last start of July and first of August. The Red Sox themselves were responsible for one of these disaster starts, with 12 hits and seven runs put up on the scoreboard against Sale on July 30th.

Johnny Cueto KC (vs. BAL) – Similar to Sale, Cueto is a regular visit to the All-In club but takes a break this week due to a formidable opponent. He’s coming off a rough start against the run-happy Red Sox, giving up 13 hits and seven runs through 6.0 innings of work, but prior to that speed bump he had been tearing through the best offenses that the AL had to offer, shutting down the Blue Jays once, the Tigers twice, and dominating Mike Trout and the Angels with one run allowed over 8.0 innings. He does draw Baltimore at a good time, as the bat of Chris Davis has finally cooled down and the team has stumbled to a .279 wOBA in their last seven games.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
McHugh	0.271	3.04	0.309	3.73	0.251	0.738	0.285	3.39	0.234	100.30	22.1%
Pineda	0.282	2.98	0.291	3.32	0.241	0.726	0.297	2.89	0.245	93.09	22.6%
Bassitt	0.305	2.83	0.280	3.02	0.236	0.704	0.281	3.59	0.234	80.45	18.1%
Hernandez	0.268	2.53	0.270	3.09	0.253	0.704	0.279	2.94	0.219	99.32	25.4%
Colon	0.316	4.24	0.328	4.63	0.252	0.683	0.311	3.78	0.275	92.35	17.5%
Eickhoff	0.547	0.00	0.090		0.241	0.686
Ross	0.305	3.23	0.280	2.85	0.249	0.719	0.310	3.10	0.235	99.23	24.4%
Gonzalez	0.288	3.75	0.312	3.76	0.234	0.658	0.320	3.08	0.249	96.22	22.8%
Santiago	0.269	1.95	0.313	3.80	0.284	0.802	0.271	4.20	0.232	86.69	21.0%
Verlander	0.296	3.28	0.356	5.80	0.248	0.705	0.306	3.81	0.263	106.00	18.3%
Anderson	0.305	3.86	0.315	3.18	0.255	0.749	0.311	3.70	0.271	87.47	16.3%
Holmberg	0.367	4.97	0.397	5.79	0.260	0.745	0.244	7.61	0.26	80.25	12.7%
Nelson	0.363	4.93	0.276	3.29	0.250	0.713	0.300	3.92	0.253	89.56	19.8%
Anderson	0.345	6.23	0.265	2.73	0.259	0.710	0.253	4.48	0.25	82.50	10.4%
Duffey	0.363	1.29	0.306	7.27	0.240	0.678	0.333	4.08	0.267	83.33	23.9%
Archer	0.271	2.86	0.281	3.32	0.244	0.694	0.291	3.01	0.224	100.09	25.4%
Flande	0.261	5.34	0.337	4.36	0.236	0.647	0.263	4.45	0.246	53.69	14.5%
Miller	0.312	3.56	0.276	2.83	0.273	0.783	0.262	3.95	0.226	93.11	18.6%
Locke	0.307	4.18	0.325	4.25	0.277	0.751	0.295	4.25	0.261	93.07	16.8%
Narveson	0.255	3.86	0.355	3.86	0.258	0.708	0.154	6.29	0.19	26.00	26.7%
Price	0.291	2.71	0.279	2.97	0.248	0.710	0.299	2.84	0.235	108.49	25.7%
Lewis	0.348	4.62	0.329	4.91	0.258	0.763	0.313	4.29	0.278	96.96	17.5%
Porcello	0.339	4.03	0.317	4.59	0.255	0.703	0.310	4.04	0.277	94.71	16.5%
Sale	0.232	1.53	0.270	2.99	0.272	0.762	0.298	2.48	0.211	106.98	32.0%
Chen	0.290	2.42	0.330	3.66	0.265	0.703	0.287	4.10	0.256	96.33	18.5%
Cueto	0.246	2.07	0.276	2.77	0.253	0.737	0.244	3.23	0.199	105.53	23.8%
Lackey	0.314	3.16	0.303	3.71	0.265	0.735	0.297	3.69	0.256	97.41	18.9%
Corbin	0.335	3.60	0.346	4.24	0.237	0.677	0.333	3.74	0.27	75.33	24.1%
Hendricks	0.307	3.09	0.284	3.75	0.269	0.744	0.293	3.40	0.25	88.92	18.6%
Peavy	0.331	4.55	0.318	3.26	0.243	0.718	0.291	4.09	0.253	98.72	18.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. SD) – Gonzalez was on a gorgeous run that last nearly two full months, but DFS managers were left bruised, bleeding, and in some cases scarred when the wheels came flying off the Nat Gio wagon. He was trying to turnaround a career-worst season and had almost brought his numbers within shouting distance of recent marks, but that was quickly undone by the 13 hits and 11 runs (10 earned) that he has given up in just 7.7 innings over his last two starts. He earns his way back into the Raise group based on the perceived ease of his opponent today, but Gonzalez has proven this season that the end result has more to do with whether he’s hitting spots than whether he is facing a formidable opponent.

Shelby Miller ATL (vs. COL) – His bounceback season continues. Miller has been a bit haphazard lately, walking three or more batters in four straight starts yet limiting the damage to a 2.84 ERA over 25.3 innings. He has 25 strikeouts across that threshold against 14 walks, with both numbers being higher than we’ve come to expect from Miller this season, and as encouraged as I am by the strikeouts I am more worried about the quickly-escalating walk rate. He’s had some games with high hit totals and those with extra free passes but has thus far avoided the disaster start in which both occur together; we’ll see how long he can walk between the raindrops.

Tyson Ross SD (at WAS) – You know that Bryce Harper is looking at the fact that Ross has given up just five homers this season (two were in Colorado) and hatching a plan to up the ante, lest he end up with a bunch of walks against the game’s leader in distributing free passes this season. Harper’s 91 walks rank third in baseball, a total that he can attribute partially to a tendency for pitchers to avoid the most fearsome bat in an otherwise disappointing lineup. Meanwhile, Ross has the 70 walks to lead the majors to go along with an NL-leading 10 wild pitches, uncorking sliders with reckless abandon as Padre catchers have become accustomed to baseballs rebounding off the backstop.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. LAA) – Verlander’s back, not so much as the dominant pitcher that has an MVP Award under his belt as a hurler who has been able to harness his stuff and his delivery in order to up the ante of pitch command over the past couple of months. The fastball velocity is not back to old levels but he deserves some points for stopping its freefall while learning to pitch with the lesser power, and pitch command takes over as the prime factor in determining his success or failure against the best hitters in the world. He has a 1.67 ERA in his last six starts covering 43.0 innings, giving up more than one earned run in just one of those half-dozen contests, and most impressive has been that Verlander has only walked six batters over that span.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at CLE) – Nelson has been distributing the upside that was promised on draft day this season, though it took him a half-season to get there, but his 1.82 ERA and opponents OPS of 569 over the last six starts attest to his performance upgrade. He has allowed two or fewer runs in five of the last six games, with 35 K’s and 11 walks across 39.7 innings of work, though he has taken advantage of weaker offenses in his dominance of the Pads, Phils, Nats, and Cubs; only his shutdown of the mighty Arizona offense back on July 24th is truly impressive. Today he takes aim at the American League and an Indians offense that has been trimmed by trades, so we may not get an honest answer as to the legitimacy of his breakout.

Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. STL) – The Cardinals have had a rough go of things against southpaws this season, watching their overall marks of a .308 wOBA and 710 OPS for the season sink to .298 and 677, respectively, when a left-hander is on the mound. Corbin was cruising through his first several games back on the mound following the Tommy John surgery that killed his 2014 season, showing pitch-count efficiency by never exceeding 90 pitches yet generating enough outs to qualify for the win in each turnout. But he has hit a rough patch in August, failing to get more than six outs in two of his last four starts as teams have teed off with 14 hits in a total of 3.3 frames between the two disaster starts.

John Lackey STL (at ARI) – Lackey has been exceedingly consistent this season, and in fact the four earned runs that he bequeathed to the Padres in his last outing was the most runs to score off of the right-hander in a single ballgame since he got pasted for ten runs (eight earned) in Denver back on June 8th. The Pads have one of the lowest-yielding offenses in the game yet Arizona lies on the other end of the spectrum, leading the NL in runs scored this season, and today might present a good time to fade Lackey in preference to other options.

Brett Anderson LAD (at CIN)
Hector Santiago LAA (at DET) – Santiago is having a fine season, but southpaws best not venture into the Tigers den lest they get mauled.
Bartolo Colon NYM (at PHI)

Wei-Yin Chen BAL (at KC)

Yohan Flande COL (at ATL)

Jake Peavy SF (vs. CHC)

Cody Anderson CLE (vs. MIL)

Jeff Locke PIT (at MIA)

Rick Porcello BOS (at CHW)

Kyle Hendricks CHC (at SF)

Chris Narveson MIA (vs. PIT)

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. NYM)