Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, June 10th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-06-12 23:05:21

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Williams	PHI	CIN	178.1	5.10	4.23	1.48		15.2%	6.6%	1.21	1.32
Moscot	CIN	PHI
Koehler	MIA	TOR	256.2	3.79	4.29	1.31	52.6%	18.4%	9.0%	0.81	1.11
Copeland	TOR	MIA
Gonzalez	WAS	NYY	223.2	3.86	3.49	1.29	46.7%	24.0%	8.7%	0.52	1.54
Eovaldi	NYY	WAS	262.1	4.32	3.94	1.39	50.0%	16.6%	5.4%	0.72	1.45
Martinez	STL	COL	156.2	3.56	3.44	1.34		23.9%	10.1%	0.63	2.01
Bettis	COL	STL	58	5.43	4.15	1.53		15.2%	7.2%	0.62	1.59
Lohse	MIL	PIT	266.2	4.32	4.02	1.21	50.0%	17.6%	5.4%	1.22	0.97
Morton	PIT	MIL	176.1	3.62	3.70	1.26	50.0%	17.8%	8.2%	0.51	2.80
Porcello	BOS	BAL	274.2	3.83	3.93	1.24	55.6%	16.2%	5.2%	0.95	1.51
Chen	BAL	BOS	253.2	3.44	3.86	1.21	31.6%	18.4%	4.9%	1.21	1.02
Arrieta	CHC	DET	227.2	2.69	2.81	1.02	50.0%	27.0%	6.1%	0.43	1.77
Greene	DET	CHC	143.2	4.51	3.82	1.37	100.0%	19.7%	7.6%	1.00	1.61
Weaver	LAA	TBR	289.2	3.85	4.26	1.21	52.4%	17.4%	6.2%	1.24	0.75
Ramirez	TBR	LAA	123	5.20	4.29	1.42	27.3%	18.8%	9.7%	1.24	1.11
Ross	SDP	ATL	265.1	3.05	3.26	1.29	66.7%	24.4%	9.6%	0.54	2.75
Perez	ATL	SDP	25.1	3.55	4.30	1.58		21.2%	13.3%	0.71	2.29
Hudson	SFG	NYM	258.2	3.79	3.77	1.24	68.4%	14.5%	4.6%	0.84	2.16
Harvey	NYM	SFG	73.2	3.05	2.81	0.98		27.6%	4.1%	1.10	1.03
Walker	SEA	CLE	97	4.55	4.10	1.40		20.9%	10.0%	1.11	1.20
Bauer	CLE	SEA	223.1	3.79	3.93	1.32	38.5%	22.4%	9.4%	0.89	0.85
Volquez	KCR	MIN	259	3.09	4.18	1.20	50.0%	17.9%	8.8%	0.73	1.49
Gibson	MIN	KCR	248.1	4.06	4.23	1.29	52.6%	14.0%	7.5%	0.72	2.03
Velasquez	HOU	CHW
Quintana	CHW	HOU	267.2	3.56	3.57	1.28	50.0%	21.3%	6.6%	0.47	1.39
Gallardo	TEX	OAK	261	3.52	3.85	1.29	50.0%	17.6%	6.8%	0.97	1.77
Hahn	OAK	TEX	140	3.28	3.71	1.17	57.1%	19.7%	7.9%	0.45	2.05
Hellickson	ARI	LAD	126.1	4.70	4.21	1.43		17.8%	7.6%	1.21	1.11
Anderson	LAD	ARI	106.1	3.13	3.39	1.31	20.0%	16.7%	6.9%	0.42	3.19

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Matt Harvey NYM (vs. SF) – Harvey stands head and shoulders above the competition in today’s night-time player pool. He in the midst of a rough stretch, giving up 13 runs over his last three starts and 19.0 innings pitched (6.16 ERA). He had only allowed 12 runs in 54.7 innings before the bad stretch started, and his peripheral numbers still reflected acedom during the bad times with 24 strikeouts against four walks in that span three-start. His numbers for the 2015 season look exactly like the right-hander’s performance prior to Tommy John surgery in 2013, and I am undeterred by his recent hiccup.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jake Arrieta CHC (at DET) – He draws one of the biggest lineups in the game, but Arrieta is saved by the fact that the Tigers have been struggling to score runs lately. Ian Kinsler looks like he might be cooked, J.D. Martinez has fallen off a cliff since the season’s opening month, and Victor Martinez has been mostly ineffective on those rare occasions when in the lineup. Nothing can stop Miguel Cabrera, but the supporting cast in Detroit has been sorely lacking, and that trend could very well continue with Arrieta taking the hill for Chicago.

Tyson Ross SD (at ATL) – Going on name value alone, the Braves have one of the most obscure lineups in baseball, yet the gang of Freddie Freeman and a bunch of misfits have quietly enjoyed a modicum of success this season. Ross has been his own worst enemy this season, with an 11.3-percent walk rate that’s his highest since his rookie year, juxtaposed with his highest-ever K rate at 25.2 percent. He continues to throw the slider with reckless abandon, and Ross’s ability to keep that pitch under the zone could be the only thing standing between him and his first run-free game of the season.

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. SEA) – Bauer has been consistently effective – now there’s a sentence that I didn’t expect to type for a few more years. The 24-year old has rattled off five consecutive starts with 20 or more outs recorded and two or fewer runs allowed in each turn. He has mixed in a pair of double-digit strikeout gems, but for the first time in a long time Bauer has found success without a complete reliance on true outcomes. Today he faces a Seattle offense that can’t get their bats in order, and back soreness from Nelson Cruz further weakens an already-depleted lineup.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Williams	0.343	4.43	0.360	5.71	0.224	0.691	0.323	4.57	0.292	0.00	15.2%
Moscot	0.386	9.00	0.350	6.00	0.207	0.567
Koehler	0.311	3.76	0.310	3.82	0.235	0.718	0.286	3.98	0.245	90.45	18.4%
Copeland	0.353	0.00	0.000		0.261	0.676
Gonzalez	0.293	3.92	0.309	3.84	0.266	0.837	0.318	3.03	0.244	97.42	24.0%
Eovaldi	0.353	4.52	0.303	4.12	0.239	0.669	0.331	3.54	0.285	96.86	16.6%
Martinez	0.337	4.31	0.271	2.94	0.284	0.772	0.312	3.39	0.241	35.80	23.9%
Bettis	0.320	5.01	0.393	5.96	0.279	0.762	0.333	3.73	0.289	0.00	15.2%
Lohse	0.317	4.06	0.314	4.54	0.234	0.642	0.278	4.20	0.251	96.60	17.6%
Morton	0.302	3.54	0.309	3.70	0.232	0.650	0.290	3.73	0.243	95.10	17.8%
Porcello	0.325	3.44	0.305	4.34	0.281	0.835	0.296	3.88	0.264	96.70	16.2%
Chen	0.287	2.75	0.328	3.65	0.200	0.701	0.288	4.04	0.257	96.05	18.4%
Arrieta	0.257	2.21	0.253	3.05	0.291	0.803	0.285	2.42	0.212	98.19	27.0%
Greene	0.362	4.82	0.297	4.21	0.242	0.694	0.316	4.07	0.267	86.19	19.7%
Weaver	0.328	4.07	0.285	3.54	0.235	0.684	0.270	4.34	0.246	97.50	17.4%
Ramirez	0.324	4.35	0.359	6.32	0.227	0.624	0.297	4.82	0.259	0.00	18.8%
Ross	0.310	3.21	0.281	2.91	0.255	0.707	0.308	3.20	0.235	100.09	24.4%
Perez	0.329	6.57	0.309	0.69	0.244	0.694	0.324	4.14	0.258	75.33	21.2%
Hudson	0.325	3.60	0.305	3.97	0.235	0.653	0.297	3.84	0.268	90.00	14.5%
Harvey	0.281	3.89	0.266	2.31	0.245	0.673	0.274	3.15	0.218	94.27	27.6%
Walker	0.334	4.07	0.310	5.30	0.247	0.701	0.298	4.37	0.251	85.21	20.9%
Bauer	0.307	3.94	0.318	3.64	0.234	0.660	0.297	3.86	0.241	100.38	22.4%
Volquez	0.298	3.31	0.288	2.92	0.231	0.623	0.259	3.98	0.223	93.56	17.9%
Gibson	0.307	3.66	0.308	4.49	0.311	0.817	0.281	4.01	0.253	92.81	14.0%
Velasquez					0.256	0.679
Quintana	0.288	4.71	0.308	3.15	0.223	0.673	0.325	2.92	0.26	104.23	21.3%
Gallardo	0.291	3.05	0.317	3.90	0.279	0.767	0.288	3.94	0.253	100.00	17.6%
Hahn	0.302	4.28	0.251	2.29	0.193	0.559	0.273	3.29	0.223	89.92	19.7%
Hellickson	0.326	4.83	0.355	4.59	0.275	0.876	0.310	4.38	0.273	94.04	17.8%
Anderson	0.323	5.06	0.291	2.30	0.256	0.695	0.317	3.24	0.268	85.00	16.7%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jose Quintana CHW (vs. HOU) – The southpaw just needs to avoid disaster starts; he has three games in which five or more runners crossed the plate under Quintana’s watch, and yet 7 other turns that featured less than three runs from his opponents. The one ‘tweener start was the three runs and 11 baserunners that he gave up in 7.0 innings of his last turn, clouding the issue a bit for today’s start. Quintana has a few extra walks this season but is otherwise in line with past performance, with a FIP of 3.24 that’s more than a full run lower than his 4.28 ERA, but the risk of a blow-up looms.

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. CLE) – Walker has finally strung together a couple of solid starts in a row, striking out 15 batters against one walk across his last two start of the year, and the three runs allowed over 16.0 innings has helped to bring his ERA down to a 5.80 mark that is still worth shaking your head but is least low enough to avoid turning your stomach. He faces a Cleveland club that mashes right-handers, so the verdict on whether Walker has truly turned the corner will likely be decided today.

Vincent Velasquez HOU (at CHW) –Velasquez is a sneaky play who may or may not be available for today’s slate depending on the DFS site of choice. He was a strikeout machine in the minors, with double-digit K/9 rates throughout the minor leagues and a low hit rate that perpetuated throughout his bush league tenure despite his being surrounded by the suspect gloves of developing ballplayers. His fastball has been reported to reach the high-90s though he regularly works a couple notches below that mark, and the biggest question about Velasquez surrounds the development of his secondary pitches. He’s a great play in larger tournaments with top-heavy payouts.

Jered Weaver LAA (at TB) – The rapidly-aging Weaver draws a good one today, facing off with a Tampa club that has had its struggles against right-handed pitching. His repertoire is worthy of batting practice and the odd angles aren’t fooling many hitters anymore, which simultaneously clouds his future performance and leaves this evaluator impressed that he can still get enough outs to keep a job.

Brett Anderson LAD (vs. ARI) – The oft-injured Anderson is essentially the same pitcher that he was in Oakland, minus the perceived upside that comes with youth. His K total won’t set the world on fire and he’ll keep the walks within reason, and Anderson’s opponent often plays an abnormally-large role in his performance. Despite sitting in last place in their division, the Diamondbacks have scored the most runs in the National League this year, and they’ve hit lefties just as well as right-handed pitchers, so there is a decent chance that Paul Goldschmidt and company will put a crooked number on the scoreboard.

Edinson Volquez KC (at MIN) – The walktastic Volquez of old has morphed into a league-average giver of free passes over the last few seasons, altering perception as well as reality when it comes to seeing his name on the pitching card for the day. Volquez was especially effective during the first month of the season, but he has since regressed to something resembling the volatile pitcher of old, with a 4.26 ERA and just two starts with more than five punchouts since the calendar flipped away from April – the only bright side is that those two starts were his last two.

Wei-Yin Chen BAL (vs. BOS)

Jesse Hahn OAK (vs. TEX)

Tim Hudson SF (at NYM)

Erasmo Ramirez TB (vs. LAA)

Yovani Gallardo TEX (at OAK)

Charlie Morton PIT (vs. MIL)

Rick Porcello BOS (at BAL)

Shane Greene DET (vs. CHC)