FantasyDraft MLB Expert Survey: Monday, August 12th
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in MLB DFS today? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy baseball analysts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for tonight’s contests. NOTE: Surveys for early slates will be posted when there are four or more early games.
Monday, August 12th
IMPORTANT: The CHW/HOU game has been postponed due to inclement weather!
Who is your favorite hitter for cash games?
Notorious: Charlie Blackmon
MrTuttle: Nolan Arenado
stevietpfl: Charlie Blackmon
SBK: Charlie Blackmon
Who is your favorite hitter for tournaments?
Notorious: Mookie Betts
MrTuttle: J.D. Martinez
stevietpfl: Ketel Marte
SBK: Mike Trout
Who is your favorite pitcher for cash games?
Notorious: Joey Lucchesi
MrTuttle: Joey Lucchesi
stevietpfl: Zack Greinke
SBK: Anthony DeSclafani
Who is your favorite pitcher for tournaments?
Notorious: Mitch Keller
MrTuttle: Eduardo Rodriguez
stevietpfl: Anthony DeSclafani
SBK: Joey Lucchesi
Who is your favorite cheap pitcher for cash games?
Notorious: Austin Pruitt
MrTuttle: Jose Suarez
stevietpfl: Jose Suarez
SBK: Austin Pruitt
Who is your favorite cheap pitcher for tournaments?
Notorious: Brock Stewart
MrTuttle: Austin Pruitt
stevietpfl: Brock Stewart
SBK: Austin Pruitt
Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?
Notorious: Justin Smoak
MrTuttle: Nomar Mazara
stevietpfl: Josh VanMeter
SBK: Randal Grichuk
Who is your top contrarian play on the board?
Notorious: Cameron Maybin
MrTuttle: Trea Turner
stevietpfl: Bo Bichette
SBK: Cavan Biggio
Which player are you most afraid of having little to no exposure to?
Notorious: Michael Brantley
MrTuttle: Rafael Devers
stevietpfl: J.D. Martinez
SBK: Mookie Betts
Which high-priced pitcher will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: Eduardo Rodriguez
MrTuttle: Mitch Keller
stevietpfl: Eduardo Rodriguez
SBK: Eduardo Rodriguez
Which high-priced hitter will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: George Springer
MrTuttle: Mike Tauchman
stevietpfl: Fernando Tatis
SBK: Anthony Rendon
What’s your sneaky home run call of the day?
Notorious: Cameron Maybin
MrTuttle: Nomar Mazara
stevietpfl: Josh Bell
SBK: Randal Grichuk
What’s your favorite overall team stack?
Notorious: COL
MrTuttle: COL
stevietpfl: ARI
SBK: COL
What’s your favorite sneaky team stack?
Notorious: CIN
MrTuttle: TEX
stevietpfl: TOR
SBK: COL
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: The Reds are cheap and they are easy to stack from a roster construction standpoint. They draw a favorable matchup tonight in Washington and it’s expected to be hot with a helping wind blowing out to center field. I love the spot for a Reds stack here, as Erick Fedde owns a low strikeout rate (13%), a high walk rate (10%), and he has allowed a .355+ xwOBA to batters from both sides of the plate.
MrTuttle: The league average strikeout rate for starters this season is 22.3%. Outside of Greinke and pitchers with limited samples, only Anthony DeSclafani (24.7%), Eduardo Rodriguez (23.5%), and Joey Lucchesi (23.4%) own above average strikeout rates.
stevietpfl: Ariel Jurado has a .358 wOBA with a .214 ISO and a 28.8% hard to soft contact ratio against right-handed hitters.
SBK: The Blue Jays are in a sneaky stacking spot on a night where they could go overlooked with a total of 14 in Coors. Ariel Jurado owns a lowly 6.54 xFIP and has been getting absolutely mangled by RHBs. Texas’ bullpen is also in the bottom third of the league and has allowed the 9th-most HRs to date.
What is your hot take of the day?
Notorious: The winning lineup in big GPPs features the lethal pitching combination of Brock Stewart and Austin Pruitt.
MrTuttle: Joey Lucchesi racks up 10+ strikeouts.
stevietpfl: No pitcher scores more than 25 fantasy points
SBK: The D’Backs falter against Peter Lambert and fail to put up more than three runs
Who is your top overall pitcher (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Zack Greinke – This is obviously dependent on the weather in Chicago. It doesn’t look great at the moment, so if the game gets called, I will be looking to spend down on pitching. If we get the green light from Kevin Roth for this game, Greinke is easily the top pitching option of the slate. He throws a ton of strikes and gets to square off against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .283 and an average k-rate of 28% against right-handed pitching.
MrTuttle: Jose Suarez – Monday’s pitching slate is a weird one. Zack Greinke is the top overall option on the slate but serious weather concerns are likely to make him a risky proposition. That’s where Jose Suarez comes into play. Suarez is essentially the cheapest viable pitching option on the slate that isn’t a long reliever that will be working on a fairly strict pitch count. The matchup for Suarez is just average but Suarez has shown some strikeout ability and is certainly a better pitcher than his 6.22 ERA would indicate.
stevietpfl: Anthony DeSclafani – Pitching on this slate is awful. If there is weather in the CHW/HOU game, then it gets even worse. DeSclafani is getting a ballpark bump and facing an offense that could be missing their best hitter. He continues to struggle with left-handed hitters, but there should only be three left-handed hitters in this lineup. Adams is the biggest threat but he’s also striking out at a 34.2% clip against right-handed pitching this season. DeSclafani has a .275 wOBA with a .151 ISO and a 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season.
SBK: Zack Greinke – If the weather holds, he’s the top play. If it does not, I’ll very likely pivot over to Joey Lucchesi in San Diego with the Rays losing the DH. There is also plenty of merit to going to cheap with guys like Pruitt/Stewart on DK to help jam in Coors bats.
Who is your top overall hitter (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Justin Smoak – He’s having a much better season than most realize and now that the Blue Jays have called up all of their top prospects, their offense has been firing on all cylinders. They are playing at home tonight (potentially with the dome open) against Ariel Jurado, who has allowed a .330+ xwOBA and a .155+ ISO to batters from both sides of the plate this season. Meanwhile, Smoak has mashed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .407 xwOBA and a .240 ISO.
MrTuttle: Nolan Arenado – Merrill Kelly’s batted ball profile…not good. Kelly has been an adequate innings eater for the Diamondbacks this season but will likely have a tough time pitching deep on Monday night in Coors. Kelly is the owner of a below average strikeout rate (18.7%) and hasn’t been able to generate much soft contact (13.3%). The end result has not only been a lot of balls in play but a lot of hard hit (42.4%) balls in play. Colorado is the top offense to target on Monday’s slate and Arenado is their top bat.
stevietpfl: Ketel Marte – I really could write up any of the Diamondbacks in this spot. Peter Lambert has a .421 wOBA with a .286 ISO and a 47.7% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. Marte has elite contact skills and continues to show an increase in power this season. He has a .223 ISO with a 44.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. With Lambert having a high hard-hit rate, and Marte making a lot of hard contact, this is one of the spots I want to play up for on this slate.
SBK: Charlie Blackmon – He’s facing a RH in Merrill Kelly who has struggled on the road this season, and Blackmon is usually an easy call against even semi-shaky RHPs. It’s hard to go wrong with bats towards the top of the Colorado order.
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