MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, May 5
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, May 5th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’re ending the week with a big 11-game main slate that looks like one of the strongest pitching slates we’ve seen in a while. 10 of the 22 teams currently have a projected run total under four runs, while only a few are above 5. There are a couple of East Coast games to monitor for rain closer to lock, but overall it’s looking like most if not all of the games will play today.
Even with all the great SPs going there are still plenty of offenses in great spots today, so let’s get into the news, notes and MLB DFS picks for Cinco de Mayo!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- BOS/PHI and COL/NYM have similar forecasts, with storms popping up in the afternoon that stick around through the early evening. Right now, I’m expecting both games to play, possibly after a delayed start, but make sure to check closer to lock as the risk of bigger issues could change throughout the day.
- OAK/KC and DET/STL also have similar forecasts to each other, with temps in the low 70s to high 60s, and 12mph wind blowing a bit right to left and out to left.
- BAL/ATL and TEX/LAA are the next warmest games, with temps in the low 60s, while MIN/CLE, LAD/SD, and MIL/SF will be in the 50s. WSH/ARI & HOU/SEA are today’s dome games.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Acuna is fine after fouling a ball off his knee and leaving early yesterday, but Michael Harris will need at least another day off with his jammed knee, and Hilliard will start for him. Braden Shewmake was called up and will start at SS over Grissom.
- Kyle Isbel hurt his hamstring yesterday and will go on the IL, and Bradley will start for him. Bobby Witt is getting a day off so Melendez will move to leadoff and Garcia will play SS.
- Brett Baty has moved up to 6th in the order making him a more appealing value play. Pham will start today against a righty instead of Canha or Guillorme, and Vogelbach is down to 8th in the order.
- Oscar Gonzalez is starting against a righty over Brennan, and Philly will load up on righties against Sale with Harrison and Guthrie over Stott and Marsh.
- Tyler ONeill is going on the IL with a back strain, so Juan Yepez will be recalled and start today against a lefty.
- Alex Verdugo remains out with his illness so Tapia will hit leadoff again, and Wong will catch over McGuire even against another righty.
- Trevor Larnach has been sent down to AAA and Alex Kirilloff has been called up.
- Austin Hays will need another game off with his finger issue so McKenna will start for him, and against the lefty Fried, Jorge Mateo will move up to leadoff today.
- Miguel Cabrera will return after missing a couple of days with an illness, and Corbin Carroll is on track to return for Arizona after he was able to pinch-hit last game. DET is also giving Greene a day of and going with Ibanez in the 2-hole.
- The Mets and Braves are my top stacks today, with both playing at home with team totals around 5.2 against mediocre righties. STL and LAA are right behind them as top stacks to target, while AZ, KC, MIN, and TEX are other stacks I like having exposure to in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- We have eleven SPs at $9k or higher today, and right now, I’m leaning towards Jordan Montgomery ($9,500) as my cash game SP. Montgomery draws a home matchup with Detroit, who currently have the lowest projected run total of the slate and are last in MLB in runs scored. Against lefties this season, Detroit is second worst with only six home runs, and Montgomery has a fantastic .34 HR/9 against righties so far this year. He might not have the ceiling as some of the more expensive SPs going today, but at his currently salary and coming off b2b solid games against SF and LAD, Montgomery just has too good of a matchup at a price point that will allow you to make a very strong overall lineup with some expensive bats.
- If you find yourself with extra salary and want to spend more at SP, then Luis Castillo ($10,500) would be my top choice, followed closely by Kershaw ($11,200), Burnes ($10,800), and Senga ($9,800), who are all excellent GPP plays today. A few cheap SPs I don’t mind taking shots on in tournaments are Bailey Ober ($8,500), Tyler Anderson ($7,200), and Sean Manaea ($7,000).
- Pete Alonso ($3,900) and Francisco Lindor ($3,700) are priorities for me today, as they are the highest upside bats on my favorite offense of the slate. They get to face Antonio Senzatela who is making his first start of the season, and in about 670 career innings pitched, he’s allowed a .287 average to lefties and a .290 average to righties, along with a K% below 17%. The rest of the projected Mets lineup (besides Pham and Nido for me) are all in play for cash games, and I like having exposure to a variety of stack combos in GPPs.
- The Braves are another team I like stacking a variety of ways in tournaments, and in cash games they have some great value bats. Austin Riley ($3,000) is not a $3k hitter, and coming off a great series against Miami in which he averaged over 14.5 FPPG, this is probably the last chance we will see him this cheap for a very long time. Ozzie Albies ($3,200) is also coming off a fantastic series in which he hit six extra-base hits, including two HRs, and at an overall weak 2B position today, he’s by far my favorite cash game play there. If you want more ATL value, then Eddie Rosario ($2,500) is who I’d go to next.
- Hitting in nice weather with a solid projected run total, STL has a lot of value options to choose from, depending on your positional needs. Matt Boyd has allowed 2+ ER in every start this season with only one start of more than 4 strikeouts, so I’m expecting runs here for the Cardinals. Nolan Arenado ($2,900) has been slumping hard but had a solid two-hit game a couple of days ago, and he’s going to have a huge game sooner rather than later, and today could be it. Willson Contreras ($3,000) and Tommy Edman ($3,100) are where I’d look to next, while Dylan Carlson ($2,400) and Juan Yepez ($2,000) are fine options if you want some OF value.
- More value bats I’m looking at for cash game consideration include Salvador Perez ($3,000), Edward Olivares ($2,700), Zach Neto ($2,400), Anthony Rendon ($2,900), Josh Rojas ($2,600), Ketel Marte ($3,000), Dominic Fletcher ($2,000), Raimel Tapia ($2,200), Esteury Ruiz ($3,100), and JJ Bleday ($2,200).
- I’m still going with Jordan Montgomery ($8,600) as my cash game SP1, while Corbin Burnes ($9,300) comes at a big discount to FD and will likely be my other cash game SP against a high strikeout Giants team. Sean Manaea ($5,600) is hard to stomach looking at his game log, but the Brewers have been one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handed pitching and just scored 9 total runs in three games at Coors Field. I’m not brave enough to use him in cash games, but I will have exposure to him in GPPs, hoping he goes for 15+ FP. Fried ($8,200), Ober ($7,200), and Kelly ($6,800) are other cheap SPs I’d recommend having GPP exposure to.
- I’m starting a little contrarian with a couple of Oakland A’s bats that are really standing out as top-value options today. Esteury Ruiz ($3,100) remains way too cheap given his elite stolen base upside, plus he’s on a six-game hitting streak. JJ Bleday ($2,000) was called up a couple of days ago as he was raking in AAA, and he’s already racked up a couple of hits, including an HR yesterday. He’s also only struck out once in eight AB’s so far, and at minimum price with a great shot of putting the ball in play a couple of times, I would strongly consider him and Ruiz for cash game value today.
- They’re pricey but I’m still looking to get at least one of Pete Alonso ($5,800) and/or Francisco Lindor ($4,900) in my main build. Brandon Nimmo ($4,400) is at a great price for more Mets exposure, while Brett Baty ($2,600) is a great extreme value option at 3B.
- Ozzie Albies ($4,600), Eddie Rosario ($2,700), and Michael Harris ($3,600) are one of my favorite cheap mini-stacks of the slate, while Edman ($3,800), Carlson ($2,800), and DeJong ($2,700) are strong value options from STL. I like taking higher than 1.5 hits+runs+rbis for Albies on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, check out our Underdog Fantasy promo code.
- My favorite bat at 3B is by far Josh Jung ($3,800), who has as much HR upside today as anyone. This season Jung is hitting an insane .423 against lefties with a .538 ISO, and over his career, he’s hit 7 of his 13 HR’s against lefties in almost half as many ABs than vs. righties. His opposing lefty SP Tyler Anderson is allowing a .309 average to righties this season, including 5 HRs, so it all adds up to about as good a situation as we’ll find in DFS for a hitter.
- More value bats I like having exposure to today are Edward Olivares ($2,700), Maikel Garcia ($2,400), Josh Bell ($3,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,800), Zach Neto ($3,200), Robbie Grossman ($2,400), Raimel Tapia ($2,200), and Dominic Fletcher ($2,500).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!