MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, July 8
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, July 8th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
DraftKings and FanDuel are doing things a little differently on this Saturday. DK has an 11-game main slate starting at 1:05 ET, while FD decided to split things up. The FanDuel main slate is officially a 7-gamer starting at 4:05. DK’s slate features games starting 3 hours apart, though we do still have plenty of overlap between the sites. We’ve also got some weather to contend with, which should make things even more interesting.
There’s a lot going on today, so let’s jump right in and unearth some MLB DFS picks for this afternoon, shall we?
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- TOR/DET looks like the riskiest game of the day, which only matters for the DK main slate. Roth has this one at YELLOW/ORANGE, though he does add most of the heavy rain should be clear by first pitch. Keep an eye on this situation as we get closer to lock, as Kevin Gausman against the Tigers is obviously quite appealing if we can play him.
- CHC/NYY, TEX/WAS, and KC/CLE are all straight YELLOW with the potential for pop-up showers. Gerrit Cole, Andrew Heaney, and Gavin Williams are the most important pitching options that could be affected, though it doesn’t sound overly risky. Cole could be out of the game by the time the rain pops in New York, while the later start in TEX/WAS means the rain could be over with before first pitch.
- STL/CHW and OAK/BOS have a GREEN/YELLOW tag with a low-end shot of a rain delay. James Paxton should be a popular pitching option today against the A’s, and it doesn’t sound like weather will be much of a factor.
- COL/SF has gusty winds blowing out to center, but that isn’t a huge factor in this park.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Corbin Carroll was back in the lineup last night after leaving Thursday’s game with a shoulder injury, which is obviously awfully good news for the D-Backs. He looked no worse for the wear, going 2-for-5 with a couple of stolen bases. This wasn’t Carroll’s first shoulder scare of the season, however, and he did have surgery on it a couple of years ago. Carroll is expected to be back in the lineup today against Mitch Keller.
- Austin Hays (hip) and Aaron Hicks (Achilles) weren’t in Baltimore’s starting lineup last night, while Adley Rutschman got a night off. Hicks did make an appearance as a pinch hitter, while we do have Rutschman and Hays projected to return this afternoon against Sonny Gray. Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg should slide closer to the bottom of the order as a result.
- Masataka Yoshida got a night off for the Red Sox last night, with Jarren Duran taking over in left while Adam Duvall manned center. We have Yoshida projected to return to the 3-hole in the lineup today against Paul Blackburn, while Enrique Hernandez is expected to hit the bench.
- Esteury Ruiz landed on the IL yesterday with a shoulder injury, and outfielder Cody Thomas was recalled to take his spot on the roster. JJ Bleday, Brent Rooker, and Tony Kemp are projected to start in Oakland’s outfield in Boston this afternoon.
- Dansby Swanson sat out of last night’s game in the Bronx with a sore heel. Nico Hoerner slid over to start in his place at shortstop, which moved Christopher Morel to Hoerner’s vacated spot at second. Swanson’s highly questionable to return today for a tough matchup against Cole.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes went back to the IL with a back injury yesterday one day after being activated after missing two weeks with the same issue. Jared Triolo should continue to see most of the burn at third for the Pirates.
- Jeimer Candelario missed last night’s game for the Nats with a sore knee. Ildemaro Vargas took his spot and hit fifth last night, which was quite a blow to Washington’s lineup.
- Bo Naylor is hitting just .149 in the majors thus far, so the Guardians gave him a night off last night. The top prospect is projected to return to the lineup today and bat ninth against Brady Singer, which should send Cam Gallagher back to the bench.
- The Cardinals placed Tommy Edman on the IL yesterday with his lingering wrist issue. Jose Fermin came up to take his place, though Dylan Carlson should spend most of the time in center.
- Speaking of the Cardinals, they’re in a fantastic spot today against Touki Toussaint. Going into Guaranteed Rate is a huge park upgrade for these bats, and Toussaint is a journeyman who hasn’t pitched particularly well since donning a White Sox uniform. STL looks like the best stack on the DK slate today, with honorable mention going to the Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees, and Reds in advantageous matchups of their own. Boston looks like the best of the bunch on FanDuel, though the ownership will certainly be there.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Pitching is a little harder to come by on the shorter FD slate today. James Paxton ($10,600) is the top guy in terms of salary and projection for a home date with the A’s. Paxton is in the midst of a resurgent season, while we’ve been picking on the A’s all year long. Saving salary is also viable here, as Andrew Heaney ($8,800) and Gavin Williams ($8,500) are discounted in good spots of their own against Washington and Kansas City, respectively. Heaney is the much more proven commodity, but Williams’ matchup is more favorable for strikeouts. Ranger Suarez ($9,600) would be my next stop at the Marlins, and I’d expect limited ownership here given his price point in between the other top options.
- Blackburn has actually pitched pretty well for the A’s so far this season, but going into Fenway is a huge park downgrade. Boston’s projected lineup has tattooed right-handed pitching this season (.334 wOBA, .190 ISO), and the expected return of Yoshida makes them even more formidable. Best of all, this team is cheap. Rafael Devers leads the way at a reasonable $3,800, while Jarren Duran ($3,000), Yu Chang ($2,000), and Adam Duvall ($3,000) should all be popular salary savers. There are enough ways to stack this team up to make them difficult to fade at these salaries, even if they’re popular.
- Jake Irvin hasn’t gotten terrible results, but his underlying numbers say he’s gotten pretty lucky to this point. He’s not missing any bats (16.8%), while his walk rate is pushing 11%. There’s no reason to believe the Rangers should have any trouble with him this afternoon. Lefties (.348 wOBA) are the priorities. Corey Seager ($4,200) is in the running for the best hitter on the entire slate, while Nathaniel Lowe ($3,200), Jonah Heim ($3,100), Leody Taveras ($3,200), and Travis Jankowski ($2,500) will all hold the platoon advantage. Texas is more expensive on aggregate than Boston, but they’re still easily stackable if you drop down a bit at pitcher.
- We’ve been stacking against Colin Rea to little avail this season, and he’s enjoyed better results after adding a slider to his pitch mix. The long-term numbers may not be all that relevant as a result, but I’m still happy to take shots on a powerful Reds offense that should fly largely under the radar (Rea-dar?). Rea’s keeping the ball on the ground vs. RHBs (54%), but that hasn’t been the case with LHBs. Elly De La Cruz, Joey Votto, TJ Friedl, and Jake Fraley will all have the platoon edge, while I have no qualms targeting Matt McLain from the right side in stacks. This is another fairly expensive stack, however, with just one bat in the projected order coming in under $3,000.
- All of these pricey stacks should have us looking for some savings. Boston’s affordability should help, but guys like Jesse Winker, Andres Gimenez, Bo Naylor, Willy Adames, Aledmys Diaz, and William Contreras project pretty well on a point-per-dollar basis today.
- We have a few better pitching options on the DK side, headlined by Kevin Gausman ($11,500) and Gerrit Cole ($11,000) against the Tigers and Cubs, respectively. Both games have some weather concerns, but hopefully both of these guys will be playable. It’s tough to pair them at these salaries, but they’re well ahead of the field in terms of projection and ownership.
- Saving a few bucks with Paxton ($10,500) is viable, but Heaney ($8,200) and Williams ($7,500) are even cheaper over here. I’d expect Paxton’s ownership to be fairly limited as a result, especially if the weather holds for Gausman and Cole. Pairing Heaney and Williams is appealing if you want to pay up for your expensive bats from the Cardinals and Rangers. Tyler Wells ($9,000) is worth a shout against a high-strikeout Twins lineup in GPPs.
- Speaking of Gavin Williams, his strikeout total looks attackable on Underdog today. The Royals are whiffing more than 26% of the time against right-handed pitching, so I’ll gladly take higher than 5.0 Ks for the Guardians’ talented right-hander this afternoon. If you’re new to the site, remember to use our Underdog promo code GRINDERS for a 100% match bonus on your first deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The Rangers’ 6.06 total is the highest on the board today, and with good reason. I still love the spot for St. Louis, however, especially when you factor in salaries. Paul Goldschmidt ($5,700) and Nolan Arenado ($5,300) will cost you, but nobody else in the projected lineup will run you more than $4,400. Brendan Donovan ($3,200), Jordan Walker ($3,300), and Lars Nootbaar ($3,900) really stand out.
- The Red Sox again feature a trio of stellar values in Triston Casas ($2,600), Connor Wong ($2,500), and Yu Chang ($2,100), which improves the appeal of the full stack. Aledmys Diaz, Jesse Winker, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Josh Bell, and Alex Call are in play as cheap one-offs viable in both cash games and tournaments.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!