MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, June 24
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, June 24th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
As usual, we’ve got lots of games scattered throughout this Saturday, but we’re here to talk about the big 10-game main slate starting at 4:05 ET. All of the games start within 5 minutes of each other, and we don’t have to deal with Coors or the unknown variables of the London game. Sounds like a fun afternoon, if you ask me.
This slate is lacking a bit in the classic ace department, but we do have palatable options in every price tier. There isn’t much more clarity on the offensive side of things, so stacking against some of the good pitchers is squarely in play. Regardless, 10 games should afford us no shortage of quality MLB DFS picks, so let’s jump right in.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- SEA/BAL looks like the sketchiest game of the afternoon with a YELLOW/ORANGE tag as of this writing. Roth has a chance of delay here, but that shouldn’t be a huge concern if we’re only playing bats. Both starting pitchers look like tournament fliers, at best. We’ve also got warm temperatures here in the upper 80s.
- TEX/NYY and NYM/PHI are both YELLOW/GREEN with a low chance for a rain delay.
- The Sox battle (BOS/CHW) has winds blowing in from center between 10 and 15 mph, but the warm temps may help offset that. It’s expected to be around the mid-80s when the game gets underway.
- ATL/CIN looks like the hottest game of the afternoon with temps pushing 90, which makes what was already the best hitting environment on the slate even better.
- ARI/SF is the coolest game of the day with temperatures just below 60 degrees.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Bryan Hoeing will start for the Marlins this afternoon in place of the injured Edward Cabrera. Hoeing has only started 3 of his 17 MLB appearances on the year, and he was held to 54 pitches over 4 innings in his most recent start earlier in the week. Something around 70 pitches seems like a reasonable expectation if the Marlins give him a little more leash today against the Pirates.
- Graham Ashcraft will come off the IL to start today for the Reds. The right-hander sustained a calf injury back on June 9, so he hasn’t been gone long. He’s cheap and shouldn’t be on a strict pitch count, but to say he’s a risky play at home today against the Braves would be quite an understatement.
- Ryan Walker is slated to open for the Giants today with Keaton Winn serving as the likely long reliever. Winn is $4,000 on DK and posted a 27% K-rate at Triple-A earlier this season.
- There’s a chance Wander Franco returns to the lineup today for the Rays after his mini-team-imposed benching. If he doesn’t, Taylor Walls should draw another start at shortstop for a matchup against noted gas can Jordan Lyles. Luke Raley missed last night’s game with a hand issue, though we do have him projected to return and hit second.
- Salvador Perez is day-to-day after leaving last night’s game with hamstring cramps. Freddy Fermin would be next in line to start behind the plate if the Royals give Perez a day off. That would also put quite a dent in the Royals’ lineup, of course.
- Sean Murphy has been dealing with a hamstring issue of his own, though he did pinch-hit in Thursday’s game. We have him currently projected to miss another game today, which should mean Travis d’Arnaud starts at catcher.
- Alex Verdugo will miss this weekend’s series in Chicago after he was placed on the bereavement list on Thursday. Jarren Duran should hit leadoff today for the BoSox against Lance Lynn.
- LaMonte Wade returned to the Giants’ lineup at first base last night, and he should play the same leadoff role today against Merrill Kelly.
- JP Crawford has missed each of the last 3 games as he continues to deal with a sore shoulder. We do have him projected to return to his leadoff role today against Dean Kremer, but we shall see. Jose Caballero has been masquerading as Seattle’s starting shortstop during Crawford’s absence with Kolten Wong manning second base.
- Yasmani Grandal has missed consecutive games with a knee injury with Seby Zavala taking his spot behind the plate.
- After an 11-10 shootout last night, I’d be surprised if the Reds/Braves game wasn’t a popular source of bats this afternoon. Atlanta leads the slate with a hefty 6.02 total against Aschraft, while the Reds check in at nearly 5.5 against Jared Shuster. This should be some pretty clear chalk today.
- The Blue Jays should also garner some attention against A’s southpaw Hogan Harris. I’m as tired of stacking the Jays as you are, but the matchup is good on paper and they come in with a strong 5.8 implied run total of their own. The Rays against Lyles (5.7) aren’t far behind, while the Mets are the only other team on the slate projected for at least 5 runs against Cristopher Sanchez. If you want to get frisky in GPPs, I don’t hate the idea of taking shots on the Phillies against an up-and-down version of Max Scherzer at home.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Merrill Kelly ($10,500) headlines the FanDuel slate from a salary standpoint in a tough matchup on the road in San Francisco. The weather is favorable for pitching, and the Giants do strike out at a decent clip (22%) vs. right-handed pitching. Kelly isn’t a bad spend in GPPs, but he’s not really a guy we’re used to paying a premium for. James Paxton ($10,100) projects a bit better at a slight discount at the White Sox, though the park there is better for power. Jon Gray is the only other FD pitcher priced above $10,000 for a road date in the Bronx against the Yankees.
- Jose Berrios ($9,200) should be somewhat popular today at home against the A’s. I’m awfully nervous about rostering Berrios as any sort of chalk regardless of the matchup, but he has pitched a bit better so far this season. Freddy Peralta ($9,900) is a tournament flier at best against a low-strikeout Cleveland lineup, while I suppose a discounted Scherzer ($9,200) is in play if you’re worried about Berrios. Lance Lynn ($8,700), Tanner Bibee ($8,500), and Luis Severino ($7,200) look like your best bets if you’re looking to save some salary on the pitching side.
- Ashcraft has a reverse platoon split, which makes the Braves’ power RHBs really stand out. You don’t need me to tell you Ronald Acuna is a good play, while Marcell Ozuna (.214 ISO) and Travis d’Arnaud (.208) have been Atlanta’s other best power-hitting righties vs. RHPs on the year. Austin Riley (.139) is having a down year, but this matchup bodes pretty well against a pitcher that struggles to miss bats. He’s also still underpriced at only $3,100 on FanDuel.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Acuna on Underdog. If you’re new to the site, be sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Shuster is a talented prospect, but he hasn’t yet figured it out at the top level. Kevin Newman, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer have all raked LHPs so far in 2023, while Jonathan India is sporting impressive longer-term numbers. Elly De La Cruz has really struggled from the right side of the plate in a minuscule MLB sample to this point, but it’s far too early to put much stock into that. Joey Votto and TJ Friedl won’t have the platoon edge over Shuster, but they’re both south of $3,000 on FD.
- The Rays may not be able to keep this up forever, but it’s still hard not to like their chances of smashing the homer-prone Lyles. Lyles has surrendered 18 dongs already this season, 10 of which have been served up to lefties. Luke Raley, Wander Franco, and Josh Lowe headline the Rays’ lineup from the left side, but Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jose Siri, and Randy Arozarena have all tattooed RHPs, as well. I’d expect the TB stack to attract less ownership than either offense in the ATL/CIN affair.
- Paxton ($10,300) and Kelly ($10,100) are your pricey pitching options on DraftKings, though both are in suboptimal spots. Berrios ($9,900) is projecting for nearly 20% ownership over here against the lowly A’s, while the next 3 options – Jon Gray, Bryce Miller, and Freddy Peralta – face dicey matchups.
- Scherzer ($8,900) should be a bit more popular on DK where we have to find two pitchers to roster, even in a potentially dangerous spot of his own against the Phillies. Lynn ($7,800) and Bibee ($8,100) would be next on my list. Lynn has been due for some positive regression, and we saw it in a huge way with his 16-K showing in Seattle last weekend. Punting with Keaton Winn ($4,000) isn’t the worst GPP strategy given the uncertainty on the pitching front here.
- We can again look to ATL/CIN for chalk bats, though these stacks won’t come as cheap on DraftKings. Acuna ($6,500) is the best play on the slate, but he’s also the most expensive. Atlanta has 4 hitters north of $5,000, while the cheapest guy in the projected lineup is the $3,700 Eddie Rosario. Kevin Newman ($2,800) is a standout value over here that should hit out of the leadoff spot against the lefty for Cincy, while Nick Senzel ($3,900) is another reasonable cheapie for Reds stacks.
- Scherzer will yield some lefty power, so keeping Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in your GPP player pool is logical even if you’re not fully stacking the Phillies. You can say the same for Pete Alonso on the other side of the game against Cristopher Sanchez, a middling lefty without great strikeout stuff.
- When it comes to value stacks, I must once again point to the Oakland A’s. Berrios will be popular today, though it’s not like he’s a bona fide ace. This is a guy we were routinely picking on last year, and Oakland’s bats are incredibly cheap. Ryan Noda ($2,800), Seth Brown ($2,700), and JJ Bleday ($2,100) stand out quite a bit against a pitcher that’s struggled to keep the ball in the yard against LHBs in recent years. Esteury Ruiz ($3,600) is the only hitter in this lineup north of $3,000.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
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Good luck today!