MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, July 20
Taylor Smith previews the Thursday, July 20th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got an incredibly early main slate of MLB action on this Thursday, with a 7-gamer starting at 12:20 ET. That’s 9:20 in the morning for us West Coast types, while everyone in Hawaii may well just sleep right through it. We do actually have some solid pitching this afternoon, but so far this week we’ve seen some of the game’s best pitchers get absolutely ravaged. Those previous slates have nothing to do with today’s, of course, which is the beauty of DFS.
This looks like a fun one, so let’s dive right in and find some MLB DFS picks for a Thursday afternoon.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- We don’t have anything too scary on the weather report today. All of CHW/NYM, ARI/ATL, and MIL/PHI are listed as GREEN/YELLOW with slight chances for delays, but none of these situations would affect my approach from a DFS standpoint.
- ARI/ATL once again has excellent hitting weather with hot/humid conditions and winds of around 12 mph blowing out toward left.
- CHW/NYM and DET/KC both have light winds blowing in from the outfield, but temps in the 80s still make for decent hitting conditions.
- SF/CIN and MIL/PHI both have temps in the mid-80s with decent humidity, which is more strong weather for bats.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Jose Quintana is set to make his season debut for the Mets this afternoon against the White Sox. The veteran made 5 rehab starts in the minors, culminating in a 78-pitch effort in his last outing. Our PlateIQ projections have him at 80 projected pitches today, which is enough to make him grade out as a reasonable cheapie around the industry.
- Starling Marte is reportedly dealing with migraines, which means he’ll likely miss another game this afternoon against Michael Kopech and the White Sox. Jeff McNeil filled the void in right field last night, which got Luis Guillorme into the lineup in McNeil’s usual second base spot.
- Zack Greinke is back after a short IL stint of his own with shoulder tendinitis. He’s usually maxing out around 90 pitches in games, to begin with, and this will be his first game since July 4th. Even in a plus matchup against the Tigers, it’s hard to get too excited about the low-strikeout Greinke from a DFS standpoint at this stage of his career.
- Byron Buxton is 0 for his last 21 with 13 strikeouts in that stretch, which presumably explains why he’s had the last two games off. The team hasn’t said anything about an injury, so there’s a chance he returns to the Twins’ lineup today for their series finale in Seattle. Matt Wallner has been serving as Minnesota’s DH in Buxton’s place of late.
- We have Emmanuel Rivera projected to return to his starting third base spot and hitting sixth for Arizona after getting the night off yesterday. Carson Kelly should also start behind the plate after Gabriel Moreno got the nod last night. Jake McCarthy thrived in leadoff duty last night, though he’s projected to fall back to seventh in the order today against Spencer Strider.
- J.D. Davis is reportedly dealing with a stomach illness, which explained his absence from the Giants’ lineup last night. David Villar took his spot at the hot corner last night. LaMonte Wade missed yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury, and he’s not likely to start today against lefty Andrew Abbott even if he’s feeling better.
- Eloy Jimenez has missed the past few games with a groin injury, though Pedro Grifol did say he was available to pinch-hit if needed last night. Jimenez didn’t get the chance, and we have him projected to sit again today against Quintana. Andrew Vaughn was also absent from last night’s lineup after fouling a ball off his foot on Tuesday.
- Zach McKinstry should return to his customary leadoff spot for the Tigers today against Greinke after sitting yesterday, which should sent Zack Short to the bench. Akil Baddoo should also crack the lineup to give the Tigers another lefty stick.
- ARI/ATL and SF/CIN are the best hitting environments on the slate, but we’ve got some elite pitchers going in these games. I’m still fine picking on Zac Gallen with an offense as talented as that of the Braves, while the Giants would be my next stop against Andrew Abbott, who’s been getting fairly lucky to this point. The Padres face a boom-or-bust pitcher of their own here in Chris Bassitt, though I’m inclined to call them my top stack on the slate given his wobbly form so far this season. The Tigers and Royals are hardly elite offenses, of course, but both teams are good sources of value against Zack Greinke and Michael Lorenzen, respectively.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Even in a tough spot with great hitting weather against a solid offense, Spencer Strider ($11,400) projects significantly better than every other pitcher today. That’s always the case, of course, thanks to his gaudy 38.9% strikeout rate and otherwise elite numbers. Strider is a core play in all formats, and I’ll likely again prioritize getting to him in cash builds, in particular.
- Pablo Lopez ($10,400) and George Kirby ($9,700) are the next stops if you’re looking for savings, as both have attackable matchups against high-strikeout foes. Andrew Abbott, Blake Snell, and Zac Gallen are all north of $10,000, but they’re GPP-only types in more daunting matchups. I’d rather take shots on the potentially underpriced Corbin Burnes ($9,300) or Alex Cobb ($8,800), though no pitcher is in a can’t-miss spot by any means on this slate.
- While I like Kirby from a DFS perspective, there’s also value on taking him to record less than 6.5 punchouts today against the Twins at Underdog. Minnesota isn’t quite as strikeout-heavy if Buxton is missing from the lineup again, and Kirby is a better real-life pitcher than anything else. That 6.5 number looks awfully high for a guy with a 20.7% K-rate on the season. Remember if you’re a new user, you can use our Underdog promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The Braves still have a 5.19 total today against Gallen. Austin Riley ($3,400) is perpetually underpriced on FanDuel, so he looks like a good place to start for both Braves stacks and cash game builds. Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario, Travis d’Arnaud, and Michael Harris are useful values in the $3,000 range. Paying all the way up for Ronald Acuna ($4,800) or Matt Olson ($4,300) is always viable, though I prefer Acuna if I can only afford one of them.
- I mentioned KC as a strong cheap stack worth targeting today. Bobby Witt is the most expensive hitter here at just $3,300, while everybody else is south of the $3,000 plateau. MJ Melendez ($2,700) and Salvador Perez ($2,800) stand out the most, but stacking the Royals is one easy way to afford Strider, if you’re so inclined.
- The Giants always have pinch-hit risk, but I still don’t mind taking shots on a few of the power RHBs (Austin Slater, Wilmer Flores) against Abbott in a great hitter’s park. Flores is particularly alluring at $2,700, while David Villar comes in at minimum-salary. J.D. Davis ($2,900) is worth a look if he’s back in there today, as well.
- Strider is usually significantly more expensive on DraftKings, which is the case again today ($12,600). I’ll stop short of calling him a must in all formats over here on a fairly deep pitching slate, but he’s still lapping the field in terms of raw median projections.
- Lopez ($10,200) is the only other somewhat pricey arm, as Kirby ($8,300), Burnes ($8,500), and Cobb ($7,400) are all wildly cheap. These affordable pitchers make it easier to pay up for your Braves and Padres. I’ll keep Abbott in my player pool at $8,800, while Quintana is playable as a GPP SP2 at $6,000 even in his season debut.
- Bassitt hasn’t been a pitcher to fear this season, and he’s been particularly woeful against lefties (.392 wOBA, 14 HR allowed). Juan Soto ($5,600) has an argument as the top hitter on the entire slate, while you can find cheapies with Jake Cronenworth ($4,000), Trent Grisham ($2,400), and Matt Carpenter ($2,300) from the left side. San Diego is my first stop for stacking on DK this afternoon.
- Greinke isn’t quite as gascanny as his numbers make him look, but the Tigers are still viable. Kerry Carpenter ($3,400) tops the wish list with his legitimate thunder from the left side, followed by Riley Greene ($4,600), Zach McKinstry ($3,600), Nick Maton ($2,700), and Akil Baddoo ($2,400). I’d be a little nervous about going overboard with the Tigers if they’re too chalky in GPPs, but I do think several of these bats are viable in cash games.
- A few more salary-saving bats to consider in all formats are Alex Kirilloff ($2,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,300), Tommy Pham ($3,200), and Wilmer Flores ($3,100).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!