MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/21/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
We have a lot of rain for BAL/OAK with 87% rain at first pitch and it looks like it should rain most of the night. They could wait this out and start very late otherwise I’d expect a postponement pretty soon. CHW/CLE is the only other game with potential rain but it should clear out by first pitch if not after a small delay but this game should play fine with ~13mph winds going out to right.
SF/NYM and TOR/BOS both have ~14mph winds out to left while NYY/DET has heavier winds going right to left at 15-20 mph. MIN/KC has winds blowing in ~10mph while ARI/WSH has wind going out ~11mph (only on DK).
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CHW/CLE are +48.6% while total runs for NYY/DET are -8.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Byron Buxton is back today hitting leadoff and DH-ing while Jorge Polanco and Gary Sanchez get days off. J.D. Martinez is out today after tweaking his groin yesterday so Alex Verdugo will hit clean-up while Travis Shaw will start today with the platoon advantage against Gausman and Trevor Story will head lead-off as Enrique Hernandez gets a day off. George Springer is out after getting HBP yesterday so Raimel Tapia will heat leadoff and Josh Bell is questionable with knee tightness. On FD there’s only one lefty starter going today (Jordan Montgomery) so most teams should roll out their usual lineup against righties but DK is including the ARI/WSH game where the D-Backs will face lefty Josh Rogers so we should see Cooper Hummel hit leadoff or at least start and is a fine value option while Carson Kelly and Christian Walker are also very cheap with the platoon advantage.
There’s a lot of strong pitchers going today and currently no stacks are jumping out to me as no one has a team total above 4.8 currently. The Nationals (DK only) have the highest projected total right now around 4.7 but that could dip if Josh Bell sits with his knee tightness and none of their bats outside of Juan Soto really excite me so that team total is more of a factor that they’re facing one of the weaker pitchers on the slate in Zach Davies. The Twins really disappointed yesterday scoring no runs and should be pretty low-owned today against Zack Greinke and make for a very affordable stack in tournaments especially with Buxton returning to spark the offense. The White Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees look like the teams with the highest upside today all going against solid but not amazing opposing pitchers and I will have exposure to each lineup depending on salary and positional needs in my main build and each team makes for nice GPP full stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m loving the price of Yasmani Grandal at $2,700 hitting in the heart of the White Sox order and the cheapest way to get exposure to their lineup along with Leury Garcia hitting 3rd for just $2,200. Aaron Hicks should continue to hit leadoff for the Yankees as is a great option at $2,700 while Joey Gallo at $2,600 remains a pure GPP option for me. With Springer out Raimel Tapia is hitting leadoff and is a great value play at $2,600 along with Zack Collins hitting cleanup at $2,700. Carlos Correa remains a bit too cheap at $3,100 along with Bo Bichette ($3,300) while Nicky Lopez ($2,600), Whit Merrifield ($2,800), and Andrew Benintendi ($3,100) make for a nice cheap mini-stack hitting 1-2-3. Some other FD names I’m considering include Steven Kwan ($3,100), Trevor Story ($3,300), and Jackie Bradley ($2,600)
Looking at DraftKings I still like Grandal for $4,100 while Zack Collins is my favorite salary saver at $2,700. Raimel Tapia for $3,200 hitting leadoff is also one of my favorite value plays along with Christian Walker for $3,000 while Cooper Hummel is only in play for me if he hits leadoff and you need more salary savings. Aaron Hicks is a great price on DK as well at $3,400 along with some guys in the MIN/KCR game as Luis Arraez and Max Kepler are both under $3,300 and Bobby Witt ($2,600) is still crazy cheap. Other value DK options to consider are Joc Pederson ($3,100), Miguel Cabrera ($3,500), Gio Urshela ($2,200), Josh Naylor ($2,700), Jackie Bradley ($2,700), and Matt Davidson ($2,000).
On FanDuel Carlos Carrasco is my favorite spend up option along with Dylan Cease who has been great as well but has a much tougher matchup against CLE while Jordan Montgomery and Joe Ryan are my favorite cheap pitching options at $7,800 and $8,200 respectively. DraftKings is similar with Carrasco as my top option while Joe Ryan ($9,300) is priced up much higher than FD and is a GPP option while Jordan Montgomery remains my favorite cheap option at $6,900.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn