MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/22/2022
We have a huge 13-game slate tonight but thankfully only a couple games with potential rain concerns.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
The COL/DET game has the biggest weather concerns with around 50% chance of rain at first pitch and it gradually getting closer to 70% throughout the night. Neither of these offenses excite me tonight and this game is sitting at a 7.5 total so it’s looking like a fade for me as there are so many other games with safer weather and better offenses. CHW/MIN is the only other game with rain issues but it should clear up the longer they wait if they can’t start on time but there is 18mph wind blowing towards home and solid pitching on both sides so this is another tough game to target the bats in.
UPDATE: COL/DET has been POSTPONED.
Games with ~9+mph winds blowing out include CLE/NYY, BAL/LAA, and TEX/OAK while MIA/ATL, SF/WSH, and MIL/PHI all have slight wind blowing in and BOS/TB, TOR/HOU, KC/SEA, and NYM/ARI are all in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for COL/DET are -12.9% while total runs for SF/WSH are +12.8%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
For now we’re giving Mike Trout a chance to return and including him in the lineup along with all righties except Ohtani against the lefty Zimmermann. We’re leaving J.D. Martinez out for now with his groin injury so look for Travis Shaw to start again while Enrique Hernandez is back batting 5th after getting a breather yesterday and Trevor Story remains in the leadoff spot. Luis Robert strained his groin yesterday so we’re considering him doubtful which moves everyone up a spot in the batting order and his OF spot could be filled by A.J. Pollock who has a chance to return from his hamstring injury otherwise Adam Engel will likely start. Austin Riley is back after missing a game on the paternity list and George Springer should be back at leadoff after not starting yesterday but coming in to pinch-hit later in the game. The Marlins finally put Jazz Chisholm at leadoff yesterday and he should stick there after homering while Nicky Lopez looks like the Royals new leadoff hitter as he started there yesterday with Merrifield moving to the 2-hole and Bobby Witt dropping all the way to 7th. The Giants haven’t faced a lefty in quite some time but facing Patrick Corbin we should see Austin Slater and Mauricio Dubon get in the lineup with Slater being a decent value play if he leads off and speaking of value plays against a lefty the D-Backs face David Peterson and we should see Cooper Hummel and Matt Davidson hitting high in the order again.
The Yankees have been pretty disappointing of late with very few HRs but today looks like a nice spot to stack them back in Yankee Stadium against Eli White with a team total sitting around 5 which is one of the highest of the slate. My next favorite stacks are LAA, HOU, LAD, SFG, and ATL while Arizona has a few righties I’m looking to mini-stack to save some salary.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m liking the prices of DJ LeMahieu ($3,200), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,400), and Josh Donaldson ($3,100) at home with the wind blowing out and the highest team total of the slate. On the other side I think Steven Kwan is way too cheap at $3,000 and is a great OF option today. Austin Slater is projecting very well right now as the likely leadoff hitter for SF but he’s not a priority for me today as there is plenty of other value out there and he could get pinch-hit for the minute Washington brings a righty pitcher in. My favorite cheap mini-stack right now is Cooper Hummel ($2,700), Ketel Marte ($2,800), and Christian Walker ($2,400) at home facing the lefty Peterson (Matt Davidson isn’t on FD tonight). Nelson Cruz is one name that is hard to believe is under $3,000 but he really is and is a very affordable high-upside OF option along with Franmil Reyes at just $2,500. Other value guys I’m considering include Hunter Renfroe ($2,600), Randy Arozarena ($2,800), Anthony Rendon ($3,000), Jeremy Pena ($2,900), and Taylor Ward ($2,400).
Looking at DraftKings Matt Davidson is my favorite value play at a minimum price of $2,000 who homered yesterday and should hit 3rd again today against the lefty Peterson while Ketel Marte is priced up too high at $5,000 but Cooper Hummel ($3,100) and Christian Walker ($3,000) have excellent prices. Darin Ruf and Austin Slater are both $2,400 and are fine value options hitting high in the Giants order against Corbin along with Wilmer Flores ($3,200) and Mauricio Dubon ($2,300). The catcher spot has one guy standing out as a slam dunk in Travis d’Arnaud at just $2,200 hitting 5th against the lefty Rogers. Other cheap bats I’m considering on DK are Josh Lowe ($2,800), Austin Riley ($3,500), Marcell Ozuna ($3,000), Orlando Arcia ($2,400), and Seth Brown ($3,300).
For pitching I think there’s enough value to easily fit Justin Verlander even though his matchup against Toronto doesn’t feel great he still has the highest upside of the slate while Kyle Wright, Julio Urias, and Brad Keller are other pitchers I’m considering as SP2’s or GPP options.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn