MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/2/22
If the trade deadline ending today at 6pm EST wasn’t going to make today wild enough we also have a 13 game main slate on FD and a 14 game main slate on DK as they are including game 2 of the COL/SDP doubleheader. Thankfully rain shouldn’t affect many if any games today but it’s going to be very important to track trade news so you don’t use someone that gets scratched from the lineup before lock like we saw with many guys yesterday.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
NYM/WSH & PHI/ATL are the only rain spots to monitor as both have a chance for a late-start or delay but both games should eventually play fine with great hitting conditions in the mid 80s and high humidity. DET/MIN and CHC/STL will be the hottest games of the day with temps in the high 80s-low 90s while SEA/NYY, MIL/PIT, ARI/CLE, KCR/CHW, and OAK/LAA will all have temps in the 70s and 80s. Today’s dome games are BAL/TEX, BOS/HOU, and TOR/TBR.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for SEA/NYY are +19.6% while total runs for CHC/STL are +18.8%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
We saw a lot of movement with trades and injuries yesterday and we will likely see a bunch more today leading right up to lock so don’t get too comfortable with your lineups and make sure to track news and the lineups page for any changes throughout the day. Starting with the trades that will affect lineups today Trey Mancini and Christian Vazquez were dealt to Houston but won’t start today while Tommy Pham was traded to Boston and we’ll see if he’ll be available to play today. Boston will also get Rafael Devers back from the IL while Houston will get back Alex Bregman after missing a game for the birth of his son and the Mariners remain without Rodriguez and Moore on the IL and we’ll see if Ty France needs more time off with his wrist injury. The Twins lost Max Kepler and Miguel Sano to the IL and we’ll see if Buxton can return to the lineup after sitting with soreness yesterday while Justin Turner likely won’t return for LAD until at least Thursday and the Rockies won’t have Kris Bryant for a while as he landed on the IL with his foot injury. Around noon Juan Soto and Josh Bell were traded to the Padres so deGrom gets a much easier matchup today and in other trade news Luke Voit is going to WSH, Eric Hosmer is going to BOS, Darin Ruf is going to NYM, Brandon Marsh is going to PHI, and Joey Gallo is going to LAD.
There are a lot of great pitchers going today and even a lot of above average pitchers that I don’t really want to stack against so I will limit my top stacks to just a few teams today. The Mets are my favorite stack hitting in great weather with a team total around 5.5 currently while the Twins are close behind them with a team total above 5 hitting in some of the hottest weather of the day against a pretty bad righty in Manning. Other stacks to consider in GPPs are MIL, ATL, HOU, STL, and TEX.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with a few value bats from the Mets and Twins in Brandon Nimmo ($3,000), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,800), Jeff McNeil ($2,600), Luis Arraez ($2,900), Carlos Correa ($3,000), Jorge Polanco ($3,300), and Jose Miranda ($2,700), while Lindor, Alonso, Marte and Buxton are obviously great bats to target as well if you can fit a couple. The Brewers are another team with some very affordable bats in a nice matchup with Wilson as Rowdy Tellez ($3,300), Christian Yelich ($3,400), and Kolten Wong ($2,900) have the platoon advantage at great salaries. The White Sox have really disappointed lately scoring more than 3 runs just once over their last four games but they still offer some great value options in Yoan Moncada ($2,400), AJ Pollock ($2,300), Eloy Jimenez ($2,700), and Yasmani Grandal ($2,100) if you need to fill one or two positions for cheap. Other bats on FD that I like for the price include Andrew McCutchen ($3,100), Eddie Rosario ($2,200), Javier Baez ($2,600), Riley Greene ($2,800), Nick Gordon ($2,200), Dylan Carlson ($2,700), Nolan Gorman ($2,800), Paul DeJong ($2,000), and Yulieski Gurriel ($2,400).
Looking at DraftKings the Mets are going to be pricey but I still like the salaries of Daniel Vogelbach ($3,700) and Jeff McNeil ($4,000) for cheaper options while Francisco Lindor ($5,500) is my favorite expensive option for them and for the Twins Arraez, Correa, Polanco and Miranda are all very affordable. Kolten Wong ($3,900) is my favorite MIL bat to target while Eloy Jimenez ($4,100) is my favorite CHW bat and for more value I would consider Eddie Rosario ($3,500), Nick Gordon ($2,100), Nolan Gorman ($3,200), Lars Nootbaar ($2,000), Paul DeJong ($3,000), Ryan Mountcastle ($2,900), Nate Lowe ($3,200), and Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,100).
There are so many great pitchers to choose from today at various price ranges but Corbin Burnes is my SP1 on both sites as his matchup and upside against PIT is just too good to fade for me. I also really like Spencer Strider for $8,300 on both sites and he’ll likely be my SP2 on DK in a matchup with PHI he just dominated in his last start. Expensive options I like for GPPs include Kevin Gausman and Triston McKenzie and for cheap I like taking shots on Jameson Taillon, Cole Irvin, Lucas Giolito, and Keegan Thompson. I haven’t mentioned Jacob deGrom as I’m worried about his pitch count since he threw just 67 pitches in his most recent rehab start and there’s a chance he could see a similar number or just a bit higher today and for his $10k+ price I’ll let others gamble on his workload.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn