MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 3rd - Page Two
Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST
| Milwaukee | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Mike Fiers |  | Michael Lorenzen | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-105) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.705 | 0.308 | 0.242 | SP vs. Left | 0.307 | 0.97 | 0.417 | 0.144 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.657 | 0.288 | 0.27 | SP vs. Right | 0.206 | 0.673 | 0.293 | 0.15 |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | CIN vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Mike Fiers : FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 158.2 — SIERA: 3.34 — K%: 25.7% — BB%: 7.6% — FB Rate: 42.7% — HR/FB: 9.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 4.53 — K%: 19.2% — BB%: 11.2% — FB Rate: 39.1% — HR/FB: 8.8%
Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 6)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 16.6% (Rank: 5)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 23)
Analysis: Fiers takes the mound after a less than impressive month of June. He posted a 4.53 SIERA with a low strikeout rate (by his standards) of 19.2%. His walks are up, while his strikeouts are down. That’s not a great combination for a pitcher. Tonight he faces a Reds’ offense that is tough to strikeout, ranking as the sixth toughest team to strikeout against right-handed pitching. Fiers should continue to be avoided until he can find that next gear that he had last season.
Pitcher Rating:68.8
Michael Lorenzen : FD: $5,400 — DK: $4,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 61.1 — SIERA: 5.24 — K%: 14.8% — BB%: 12.5% — FB Rate: 33.2% — HR/FB: 16.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.0 — SIERA: 4.83 — K%: 16.3% — BB%: 10.9% — FB Rate: 35.2% — HR/FB: 15.6%
Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.352 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 15.9% (Rank: 3)
Pitchers per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 27)
Analysis: Lorenzen has not pitched very well this season, posting a 5.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.8%. He has been an easy pitcher to avoid thus far and that should continue tonight against the Brewers, whose offense is finally starting to come alive. Milwaukee is ranked third in wOBA (.352) and third in strikeout rate (15.9%) over the last 14 days.
Pitcher Rating:39.0
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
The Brewers’ offense is finally starting to produce at the level that we have been waiting for. They are one of the hottest offenses in baseball right now, after a huge series against the Phillies. The right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play, but the left-handed bats are the preferred targets. Michael Lorenzen has given up a .417 wOBA to batters from the left side this season.
Elite Plays:
Adam Lind : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 528 — wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 156
Last 14 Days: PA: 48 — wOBA: 0.492 — ISO: 0.310 — wRC+: 217
Gerardo Parra : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 682 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 98
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 159
Secondary Plays:
Scooter Gennett : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 548 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.160 — wRC+: 112
Last 14 Days: PA: 37 — wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.286 — wRC+: 153
Cincinnati
The Reds may have a tough matchup on paper, but Mike Fiers has not been the same pitcher that he was in 2014. He has given up a .323+ wOBA to left and right-handed hitters this season. Trust the Vegas line and total in this one, as the Reds’ offense actually in a pretty decent spot to succeed tonight.
Elite Plays:
Joey Votto : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 434 — wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 134
Last 14 Days: PA: 57 — wOBA: 0.292 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 82
Secondary Plays:
Todd Frazier : FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 765 — wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.227 — wRC+: 134
Last 14 Days: PA: 57 — wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.218 — wRC+: 89
Billy Hamilton : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 666 — wOBA: 0.275 — ISO: 0.084 — wRC+: 70
Last 14 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.293 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 82
Jay Bruce : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 634 — wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 91
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 114
Houston at Boston – 7:10 PM EST
| Houston | Boston | ||||||||
 | Dan Straily |  | Justin Masterson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS (-122) | 9 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.765 | 0.337 | 0.194 | SP vs. Left | 0.308 | 0.9 | 0.394 | 0.146 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.296 | 0 | 0.395 | 0.215 | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0 | 0.334 | 0.241 |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Dan Straily : FD: $6,000 — DK: $5,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 52.0 — SIERA: 4.28 — K%: 20.4% — BB%: 10.4% — FB Rate: 48.7% — HR/FB: 13.2%
Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 7)
Pitchers per PA: 3.96 (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Straily is making his first start of the season. He has had some decent success in the minors, posting a 3.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.5%. While he’d like to get off to a good start this year, he is going to have his hands full with a Red Sox offense that is ranked 11th in wOBA (.321) and second in strikeout rate (16.4%) against right-handed pitching this season. The risk outweighs the potential reward.
Pitcher Rating:43.1
Justin Masterson : FD: $6,500 — DK: $5,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 169.0 — SIERA: 4.15 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 11.3% — FB Rate: 23.2% — HR/FB: 13.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 5.0 — SIERA: 1.96 — K%: 30.0% — BB%: 0.0% — FB Rate: 38.5% — HR/FB: 0.0%
Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 26.0% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 26.3% (Rank: 30)
Pitchers per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Masterson pitched well in his first start back from injury, but he’s one of the most inconsistent pitchers in all of baseball. His command comes and goes each start and you never truly know what to expect from him, regardless of the matchup. While the Astros do have the highest strikeout rate (26.0%) against right-handed pitching, they also lead the majors in home runs. Much like his opponent, there is more risk than potential reward here.
Pitcher Rating:63.6
Batter Grind Down
Houston
The Astros have a lot of power in their lineup. They have more home runs than any team in baseball and they are ranked sixth in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Justin Masterson, who has given up a .334+ wOBA to left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays:
Carlos Correa : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.224 — wRC+: 129
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.235 — wRC+: 96
Luis Valbuena : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 654 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.226 — wRC+: 122
Last 14 Days: PA: 44 — wOBA: 0.402 — ISO: 0.270 — wRC+: 162
Secondary Plays:
Jose Altuve : FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 755 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.109 — wRC+: 113
Last 14 Days: PA: 43 — wOBA: 0.449 — ISO: 0.263 — wRC+: 195
Evan Gattis : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 517 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.223 — wRC+: 111
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 109
Boston
The Red Sox had a field day last night against the Blue Jays. They put up eight runs in the first inning and cruised to a win in Toronto. They are one of the hottest offenses in baseball and they should be able to keep it going tonight against Dan Straily, who gave up a .337+ wOBA to left and right-handed hitters last season. The Red Sox are one of the top teams to stack tonight.
Elite Plays:
David Ortiz : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 628 — wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.251 — wRC+: 137
Last 14 Days: PA: 57 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.294 — wRC+: 121
Pablo Sandoval : FD: $2,400 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 635 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.155 — wRC+: 136
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.274 — ISO: 0.089 — wRC+: 68
Secondary Plays:
Hanley Ramirez : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 594 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.168 — wRC+: 124
Last 14 Days: PA: 27 — wOBA: 0.547 — ISO: 0.423 — wRC+: 260
Mookie Betts : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 414 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.170 — wRC+: 122
Last 14 Days: PA: 62 — wOBA: 0.454 — ISO: 0.298 — wRC+: 194
Brock Holt : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 498 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.104 — wRC+: 105
Last 14 Days: PA: 57 — wOBA: 0.291 — ISO: 0.098 — wRC+: 80
Philadelphia at Atlanta – 7:35 PM EST
| Philadelphia | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Adam Morgan |  | Julio Teheran | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ATL (-150) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.333 | 0.899 | 0.4 | 0.273 | SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.758 | 0.331 | 0.179 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.833 | 0.354 | 0.231 | SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.624 | 0.277 | 0.224 |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Adam Morgan : FD: $5,600 — DK: $4,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 5.2 — SIERA: 3.84 — K%: 25.0% — BB%: 8.3% — FB Rate: 53.3% — HR/FB: 12.5%
Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.277 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 22.7% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.264 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 10)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Morgan pitched well in his major league debut, striking out six batters over five and two-third innings of work while only giving up a single earned run. I’d like to see a larger sample size before targeting him in daily fantasy though. I’ll take the wait and see approach, even though he does draw an intriguing matchup against the Freddie Freeman-less Braves.
Pitcher Rating:51.1
Julio Teheran : FD: $8,000 — DK: $8,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 315.2 — SIERA: 3.85 — K%: 20.2% — BB%: 6.5% — FB Rate: 40.7% — HR/FB: 9.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.2 — SIERA: 3.78 — K%: 18.4% — BB%: 5.2% — FB Rate: 30.0% — HR/FB: 6.7%
Philadelphia Phillies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.282 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 8)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.333 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 17.1% (Rank: 6)
Pitchers per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 26)
Analysis: Teheran has been an above-average starter over the last two seasons, posting a 3.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.2%. Basically, the deciding factor with Teheran comes down to where he is pitching. For whatever reason, he is much better at home than he is on the road. His career SIERA is nearly a full run lower and his strikeout rate is six percentage points higher at home than it is on the road. His price is affordable and he draws a very nice matchup against the Phillies, who are still ranked dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Pitcher Rating:72.7
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
The Phillies’ offense has come alive recently, but that happens to a lot of teams that face the Brewers’ starting rotation. I’m not buying into the recent hot streak, as they are still ranked dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching. They can safely be avoided tonight against Julio Teheran, who has been terrific at home throughout his career.
Elite / Secondary Plays:
NONE
Atlanta
The Braves draw an interesting matchup against Adam Morgan, who is making his second career major league start. Morgan is a left-handed pitcher that had mediocre (at best) results in the minors this season. The right-handed bats of Chris Johnson and Cameron Maybin offer great value tonight at home.
Elite Plays:
Chris Johnson : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 161 — wOBA: 0.426 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 176
Last 14 Days: PA: 20 — wOBA: 0.240 — ISO: 0.050 — wRC+: 48
Secondary Plays:
Cameron Maybin : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 150 — wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 92
Last 14 Days: PA: 48 — wOBA: 0.265 — ISO: 0.119 — wRC+: 66
LA Angels at Texas – 8:05 PM EST
| LA Angels | Texas | ||||||||
 | Garrett Richards |  | Chi Chi Gonzalez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAA (-130) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.202 | 0.543 | 0.246 | 0.225 | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.603 | 0.278 | 0.073 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.217 | 0.591 | 0.271 | 0.22 | SP vs. Right | 0.158 | 0.572 | 0.259 | 0.093 |
| Batter Splits | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Garrett Richards : FD: $8,800 — DK: $9,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 255.0 — SIERA: 3.50 — K%: 22.3% — BB%: 8.1% — FB Rate: 29.2% — HR/FB: 5.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.1 — SIERA: 3.91 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 7.5% — FB Rate: 27.3% — HR/FB: 12.5%
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 23.4% (Rank: 28)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 14)
Analysis: Richards is slowly recovering his 2014 form. His velocity and swinging-strike rate are nearly identical to those of last season, so I expect a strong second half of the season from him. He draws an average matchup tonight against the Rangers, who strike out at a fairly high clip (especially in the last two weeks). Richards will fly under the radar tonight, which makes him an intriguing contrarian play for tournaments. Run support shouldn’t be an issue with Chi Chi Gonzalez pitching opposite him.
Pitcher Rating:71.1
Chi Chi Gonzalez : FD: $6,600 — DK: $5,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 41.2 — SIERA: 5.44 — K%: 8.3% — BB%: 10.1% — FB Rate: 27.8% — HR/FB: 8.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.0 — SIERA: 5.29 — K%: 8.3% — BB%: 8.3% — FB Rate: 29.3% — HR/FB: 8.8%
LA Angels of Anaheim Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 16)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 14)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Every time Gonzalez takes the mound, I mention that he is due for some serious regression. His ERA is two and a half runs lower than his SIERA, which typically corrects itself as the sample size gets larger. Gonzalez has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starter this season, striking out only 8.3% of the batters that he has faced. I have been avoiding him so far and I will continue to do the same tonight against the Angels.
Pitcher Rating:32.6
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
The Angels are one of my favorite offenses to target tonight. While you may see a pitcher (Chi Chi Gonzalez) with a 2.59 ERA, I see a pitcher with a 5.44 SIERA and a strikeout rate of only 8.3%. The Angels should be able to tee off against him tonight in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. I will be heavily targeting the Angels in both cash games and tournaments.
Elite Plays:
Mike Trout : FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 792 — wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.283 — wRC+: 169
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.444 — ISO: 0.300 — wRC+: 197
Kole Calhoun : FD: $2,300 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 652 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 116
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.247 — ISO: 0.102 — wRC+: 59
Secondary Plays:
Albert Pujols : FD: $4,300 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 778 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.233 — wRC+: 139
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.414 — ISO: 0.415 — wRC+: 176
Erick Aybar : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 711 — wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.089 — wRC+: 99
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 160
Texas
The Rangers have some great left-handed hitters in their lineup, but that isn’t going to be a huge advantage in tonight’s matchup. Since the start of last season, Garrett Richards has held hitters from the left side of the plate to a .246 wOBA. Compared to their respective team totals, I like the Angels’ offense more (over) and the Rangers’ offense less (under).
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Adrian Beltre : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 637 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.144 — wRC+: 112
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.198 — ISO: 0.024 — wRC+: 14
Baltimore at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM EST
| Baltimore | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
 | Ubaldo Jimenez |  | John Danks | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (-150) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.734 | 0.332 | 0.207 | SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.7 | 0.312 | 0.116 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.66 | 0.297 | 0.244 | SP vs. Right | 0.283 | 0 | 0.368 | 0.163 |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Ubaldo Jimenez : FD: $8,400 — DK: $7,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 212.2 — SIERA: 4.08 — K%: 22.3% — BB%: 11.3% — FB Rate: 33.3% — HR/FB: 10.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.2 — SIERA: 3.36 — K%: 26.4% — BB%: 8.5% — FB Rate: 32.1% — HR/FB: 7.7%
Chicago White Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 12)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 11)
Pitchers per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 22)
Analysis: Jimenez has pitched well in his recent starts, posting a 3.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.4% over the last month. The problem with Jimenez is that no matter how great the matchup appears to be, we never feel 100% confident in rostering him. He has improved command, but he still walks close to 10% of the batters that he faces. On paper, he should have some success against the White Sox, but the only exposure that I will have to him tonight is in tournaments.
Pitcher Rating:70.4
John Danks : FD: $5,900 — DK: $5,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 274.0 — SIERA: 4.59 — K%: 15.2% — BB%: 7.9% — FB Rate: 39.3% — HR/FB: 11.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 22.1 — SIERA: 4.63 — K%: 11.4% — BB%: 3.8% — FB Rate: 36.0% — HR/FB: 16.1%
Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 14)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 25)
Pitchers per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 12)
Analysis: Danks is one of my favorite pitchers to target in all of baseball. The problem is that I like targeting hitters against him, not as a viable pitching option. He has given up a .368 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons, which does not bode well for a matchup against the Orioles, who have quite a few right-handed power bats in their lineup.
Pitcher Rating:36.8
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
As mentioned above, John Danks does not fare well against right-handed hitters. He also gives up a .312 wOBA to left-handed bats, but the right-handed hitters are the ones that we want to target tonight. The Orioles have one of the highest team totals on the board and they are playing in the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.
Elite Plays:
Adam Jones : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 223 — wOBA: 0.433 — ISO: 0.256 — wRC+: 182
Last 14 Days: PA: 29 — wOBA: 0.246 — ISO: 0.040 — wRC+: 51
Matt Wieters : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 37 — wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: 0.278 — wRC+: 74
Last 14 Days: PA: 29 — wOBA: 0.224 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 35
Secondary Plays:
Manny Machado : FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 174 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 106
Last 14 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.218 — wRC+: 173
Jimmy Paredes : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.136 — wRC+: 106
Last 14 Days: PA: 41 — wOBA: 0.507 — ISO: 0.324 — wRC+: 233
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are sizable underdogs tonight at home, but there are still a few fantasy options that are in play. Ubaldo Jimenez has given up a .332 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons, making Adam Eaton and Adam LaRoche both viable options. Jose Abreu is also worth a look, as he has a ton of power for a player at his price point.
Elite Plays:
Adam Eaton : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 624 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.131 — wRC+: 117
Last 14 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.234 — wRC+: 144
Secondary Plays:
Jose Abreu : FD: $3,600 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 709 — wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.233 — wRC+: 144
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 128
Adam LaRoche : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 650 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 140
Last 14 Days: PA: 41 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 130