MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 15th - Page Two
Atlanta at Boston – 7:10 PM EST
| Atlanta | Boston | ||||||||
 | Williams Perez |  | Rick Porcello | ||||||
| Right | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS (-151) | 9 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.27 | 0.752 | 0.329 | 0.159 | SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.747 | 0.326 | 0.154 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.577 | 0.281 | 0.237 | SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.697 | 0.306 | 0.175 |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | BOS vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Williams Perez : FD: $5,800 — DK: $4,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 33.1 — SIERA: 4.25 — K%: 20.0% — BB%: 11.7% — FB Rate: 25.0% — HR/FB: 8.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.0 — SIERA: 3.98 — K%: 20.5% — BB%: 9.9% — FB Rate: 25.8% — HR/FB: 4.3%
Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 6)
Pitchers per PA: 3.99 (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Perez has pitched about as well as anyone could have hoped. He has a 4.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.0% this season. He can be a little erratic at times though, walking 11.7% of the batters that he has faced. The Red Sox are a team that can make opposing pitchers pay for pitching outside of the strike zone. The have the second-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and they average the second-most pitches per plate appearance this season. He’s an easy avoid for me tonight in Fenway Park.
Pitcher Rating:43.3
Rick Porcello : FD: $7,600 — DK: $6,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 280.0 — SIERA: 3.90 — K%: 16.3% — BB%: 5.1% — FB Rate: 31.0% — HR/FB: 10.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.1 — SIERA: 4.09 — K%: 16.8% — BB%: 5.3% — FB Rate: 38.4% — HR/FB: 13.2%
Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 4)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 3)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 17)
Analysis: Porcello may be a large favorite tonight, but he’s not really a pitcher that is on my radar. The Braves may not have the most potent offense in baseball, but they make the most of what they have. They are ranked 3rd in wOBA (.338) over the last two weeks and they have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the season. The total for this game is set at 9.0 runs, which puts both offenses in play tonight.
Pitcher Rating:51.1
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman : FD: $3,900 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 695 — wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 154
Last 14 Days: PA: 57 — wOBA: 0.525 — ISO: 0.429 — wRC+: 240
Analysis: Freeman is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. Over the last two weeks, he has a .525 wOBA with a .429 ISO. He has always hit right-handed pitching well and he sees a positive ballpark shift playing in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. All of the left-handed hitters in the Braves’ lineup are in play tonight against Rick Porcello.
Jace Peterson
Salaries: FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 240 — wOBA: 0.276 — ISO: 0.071 — wRC+: 72
Kelly Johnson
Salaries: FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 345 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.166 — wRC+: 93
Nick Markakis
Salaries: FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 710 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 115
Boston
David Ortiz : FD: $2,500 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 569 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.246 — wRC+: 136
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.214 — wRC+: 98
Analysis: Sometimes it can pay off to target a good hitter in the midst of a slump. That has been the case with David Ortiz over the last few days, as his price has been ridiculously low on FanDuel. He finally appears to be heating up and this may be the last night to target him at the $2,500 price tag. He is the chalk play at first base on FanDuel and he deserves a look on DraftKings as well.
Hanley Ramirez
Salaries: FD: $3,600 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 561 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.166 — wRC+: 124
Brock Holt
Salaries: FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 432 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.087 — wRC+: 96
Xander Bogaerts
Salaries: FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 588 — wOBA: 0.287 — ISO: 0.104 — wRC+: 78
Toronto at NY Mets – 7:10 PM EST
| Toronto | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Mark Buehrle |  | Noah Syndergaard | ||||||
| LEFT | Right | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-105) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.76 | 0.333 | 0.126 | SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.723 | 0.311 | 0.123 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.287 | 0.753 | 0.329 | 0.131 | SP vs. Right | 0.303 | 0.788 | 0.343 | 0.321 |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Mark Buehrle : FD: $7,600 — DK: $6,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 280.1 — SIERA: 4.43 — K%: 13.0% — BB%: 5.2% — FB Rate: 33.4% — HR/FB: 8.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 39.1 — SIERA: 4.67 — K%: 11.1% — BB%: 4.6% — FB Rate: 37.3% — HR/FB: 10.6%
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 24)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 26)
Pitchers per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Anyone want to guess how many times I will target Mark Buehrle over the course of the entire season? I’ll give you a hint, it rhymes with done (and no, it’s not a ton). He has an above-average SIERA with a below average strikeout rate. Even in a favorable matchup against the Mets, I will be avoided Buehrle again tonight.
Pitcher Rating:41.6
Noah Syndergaard : FD: $7,700 — DK: $8,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 34.2 — SIERA: 3.19 — K%: 22.5% — BB%: 4.0% — FB Rate: 32.1% — HR/FB: 8.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 2.87 — K%: 22.4% — BB%: 1.6% — FB Rate: 30.0% — HR/FB: 7.4%
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.362 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 2)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 15)
Analysis: After three dominant outings in a row, Mets’ rookie Noah Syndergaard has come crashing back down to Earth in his last two starts, giving up a combined 11 earned runs in only ten innings of work. I’m not too concerned though, as he is still a starter that can throw a 99-MPH fastball. His matchup against the Blue Jays may not appear great on paper, but he is facing them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark under National League rules. Syndergaard is a little too risky to target in cash games, but he is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board tonight.
Pitcher Rating:73.2
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays go from a hitter-friendly ballpark in the Rogers Centre to a pitcher-friendly ballpark in Citi Field. Noah Syndergaard has pitched well at home this season, leaving the Blue Jays as secondary fantasy options tonight.
Russell Martin
Salaries: FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 538 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 143
Chris Colabello
Salaries: FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 261 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.139 — wRC+: 108
NY Mets
Wilmer Flores : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 2B/SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 103 — wOBA: 0.267 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 70
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.261 — wRC+: 131
Analysis: Flores is not going to be priced at this level for very much longer. He has been swinging a hot bat with a .357 wOBA and a .261 ISO over the last two weeks. He should be hitting in the heart of the Mets’ order tonight, as they take on Mark Buehrle, who isn’t particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate.
Michael Cuddyer
Salaries: FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 113 — wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.235 — wRC+: 174
LA Dodgers at Texas – 8:05 PM EST
| LA Dodgers | Texas | ||||||||
 | Carlos Frias |  | Yovani Gallardo | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-106) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.343 | 0.855 | 0.376 | 0.118 | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.649 | 0.29 | 0.174 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.622 | 0.274 | 0.197 | SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.709 | 0.314 | 0.185 |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Carlos Frias : FD: $6,400 — DK: $4,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 81.1 — SIERA: 3.59 — K%: 16.3% — BB%: 6.0% — FB Rate: 24.8% — HR/FB: 10.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.1 — SIERA: 4.54 — K%: 8.9% — BB%: 7.4% — FB Rate: 18.2% — HR/FB: 10.0%
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 21)
Pitchers per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Frias has not pitched well recently with a 4.54 SIERA and a very low strikeout rate of 8.9% over the last month of play. We typically don’t like to target pitchers in bad form, especially when he is facing a surging offense like the Rangers. The Rangers have been putting up runs in bunches recently and they have moved up to 9th in wOBA (.319) against right-handed pitching on the season.
Pitcher Rating:51.8
Yovani Gallardo : FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 268.0 — SIERA: 3.78 — K%: 18.0% — BB%: 6.7% — FB Rate: 28.8% — HR/FB: 11.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.0 — SIERA: 3.06 — K%: 21.6% — BB%: 5.6% — FB Rate: 23.1% — HR/FB: 9.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 18)
Pitchers per PA: 3.91 (Rank: 4)
Analysis: Gallardo has pitched well in his recent starts, posting a 3.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.6% over the last month of play. He has cut down on his walks recently and his ground-ball rate is up. While everything is trending in the right direction for Gallardo, we can throw it all out the window tonight. He has to face the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching and he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.
Pitcher Rating:52.9
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 681 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.243 — wRC+: 156
Last 14 Days: PA: 57 — wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.140 — wRC+: 95
Analysis: Gonzalez is in the midst of a mini-slump with a paltry .305 wOBA over the last two weeks. His price on DraftKings hasn’t been affected, but he is very cheap on FanDuel at a price of only $3,400. He has great power against right-handed pitching and he sees a positive ballpark shift tonight playing in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.
Joc Pederson
Salaries: FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 234 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.281 — wRC+: 148
Andre Ethier
Salaries: FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 499 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 119
Texas
Joey Gallo : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 25 — wOBA: 0.558 — ISO: 0.350 — wRC+: 268
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: 0.278 — wRC+: 165
Analysis: Gallo has been the most popular play at third base for the better part of a week now and unfortunately, his price is still very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. After hitting another home run yesterday, he will likely be around 50% owned in cash games again tonight. I’ll still take that 50% edge over the field though. He should be targeted in all leagues, as Carlos Frias has given up a .376 wOBA to left-handed hitters.
Prince Fielder
Salaries: FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 283 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.136 — wRC+: 141
Shin-Soo Choo
Salaries: FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 533 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.165 — wRC+: 116
Mitch Moreland
Salaries: FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 275 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.183 — wRC+: 127
Cleveland at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM EST
| Cleveland | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Trevor Bauer |  | Jake Arrieta | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.23 | 0.694 | 0.311 | 0.231 | SP vs. Left | 0.206 | 0.577 | 0.261 | 0.295 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.72 | 0.318 | 0.218 | SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.579 | 0.256 | 0.253 |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Trevor Bauer : FD: $8,400 — DK: $7,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 227.0 — SIERA: 3.97 — K%: 22.4% — BB%: 9.7% — FB Rate: 42.7% — HR/FB: 8.4%
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.1 — SIERA: 4.22 — K%: 23.1% — BB%: 11.2% — FB Rate: 50.0% — HR/FB: 9.3%
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 25.4% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 23)
Pitchers per PA: 3.99 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Bauer is looking to bounce back after a rough outing against the Mariners. He has really pitched well this season, but that last outing did hurt his ERA and SIERA. He draws a decent matchup against the Cubs, who strike out at a high rate against right-handed pitching. The Cubs have a lot of power in their lineup though and their is a small helping wind blowing out to center field tonight at Wrigley. There are better pitching options at this price point tonight.
Pitcher Rating:61.4
Jake Arrieta : FD: $9,800 — DK: $9,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 233.2 — SIERA: 2.79 — K%: 27.1% — BB%: 6.1% — FB Rate: 27.9% — HR/FB: 7.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.0 — SIERA: 2.54 — K%: 27.1% — BB%: 3.1% — FB Rate: 26.7% — HR/FB: 21.7%
Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 6)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 4)
Pitchers per PA: 3.92 (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Arrieta has been dominant over the last month of play, posting a 2.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.1%. He has one of the lowest walk rates among starters during that stretch and he produces a high ground ball rate. The issue here is twofold. The Indians are a very competent offense that doesn’t strike out often and as I mentioned above, there is a helping wind blowing out to center field tonight. Arrieta is the preferred pitcher in this matchup, but I have Francisco Liriano, Masahiro Tanaka, and Dallas Keuchel ranked ahead of him.
Pitcher Rating:82.1
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
NONE – Since the start of 2014, Jake Arrieta has held left and right-handed hitters under a .265 wOBA. He has one of the lowest SIERA’s in all of baseball and the Indians will be playing this game under National League rules. There are better matchups to exploit tonight.
Chicago Cubs
Miguel Montero : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 604 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.151 — wRC+: 106
Last 14 Days: PA: 44 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.333 — wRC+: 146
Analysis: Montero has been Mr. Home Run recently with three homers in his last five games. His price has yet to reflect his recent level of production and he draws a favorable matchup tonight at home against Trevor Bauer. We all know what happens when the wind is blowing out in Wrigley. While it’s currently expected to be around 7-8 MPH, if it picks up, we could see a lot of home runs off of Bauer, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher.
Anthony Rizzo
Salaries: FD: $4,500 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 655 — wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.260 — wRC+: 153
Kris Bryant
Salaries: FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 191 — wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 155
Chris Coghlan
Salaries: FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 508 — wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.195 — wRC+: 122
Kansas City at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM EST
| Kansas City | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Edinson Volquez |  | Kyle Lohse | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KCR (-116) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.221 | 0.674 | 0.3 | 0.191 | SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.726 | 0.319 | 0.17 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.629 | 0.284 | 0.17 | SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.723 | 0.317 | 0.177 |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Edinson Volquez : FD: $8,500 — DK: $7,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 266.0 — SIERA: 4.17 — K%: 18.0% — BB%: 8.8% — FB Rate: 32.8% — HR/FB: 8.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.0 — SIERA: 3.83 — K%: 20.9% — BB%: 7.8% — FB Rate: 32.6% — HR/FB: 6.9%
Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 9)
Pitchers per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Volquez has been a serviceable starter for the Royals this season. He has a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.9% over the last month of play and he draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Brewers. On the season, Milwaukee is ranked 23rd in wOBA (.296) and 25th in strikeout rate (21.5%) against right-handed pitching. I expect a decent outing from Volquez tonight, but we are looking for more than a decent outing. Avoid Volquez in lieu of the top pitching options on the slate.
Pitcher Rating:57.5
Kyle Lohse : FD: $5,900 — DK: $5,300
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 273.0 — SIERA: 4.04 — K%: 17.4% — BB%: 5.4% — FB Rate: 39.9% — HR/FB: 10.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.0 — SIERA: 3.91 — K%: 17.8% — BB%: 4.6% — FB Rate: 35.1% — HR/FB: 12.5%
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.243 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 16)
Pitchers per PA: 3.66 (Rank: 29)
Analysis: When there is a big gap between a pitcher’s ERA and his SIERA, it results in a pitcher being under or overpriced in daily fantasy baseball. Since earned runs count against pitchers in DFS, a pitcher will be severely underpriced when his ERA is higher than his SIERA. That’s the case with Lohse this season, as his SIERA is a full two runs lower than his ERA. Lohse is extremely cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he’s facing a Royals’ offense that is ranked dead last in wOBA (.243) over the last two weeks. I probably won’t have a ton of exposure to Lohse, but he should be able to pay off that cheap salary.
Pitcher Rating:56.3
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Eric Hosmer : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 544 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.152 — wRC+: 118
Last 14 Days: PA: 41 — wOBA: 0.282 — ISO: 0.028 — wRC+: 78
Analysis: Lohse is a fly-ball pitcher with a slightly above-average HR/FB rate. That typically doesn’t bode well for a pitcher playing in a home run-friendly ballpark. While the Royals’ offense has been cold, they are very cheap and in a decent spot tonight against a pitcher that has had some awful luck this season.
Alex Gordon
Salaries: FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 598 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 123
Kendrys Morales
Salaries: FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 409 — wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 92
Milwaukee
Adam Lind : FD: $2,700 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 477 — wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.195 — wRC+: 156
Last 14 Days: PA: 44 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.122 — wRC+: 148
Analysis: I wish we could target two first baseman tonight on FanDuel, because it’s going to be tough deciding between David Ortiz and Adam Lind. Lind has been terrific against right-handed pitching, posting a .401 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Edinson Volquez at home in the hitter-friendly Miller Park.
Jonathan Lucroy
Salaries: FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 589 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.151 — wRC+: 121