MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 28th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Cincinnati at Washington – 3:05 PM EST
| Cincinnati | Washington | ||||||||
 | Brandon Finnegan |  | Max Scherzer | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-185) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.213 | 0.774 | 0.340 | 29.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.686 | 0.301 | 25.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.196 | 0.640 | 0.281 | 24.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.209 | 0.599 | 0.262 | 32.90% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Brandon Finnegan : FD: $5,500 — DK: $4,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 39.0 — SIERA: 3.23 — ERA: 2.31 — K%: 25.0% — BB%: 10.9% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 7.2 — SIERA: 3.02 — ERA: 1.17 — K%: 27.6% — BB%: 10.3% — HR/9: 1.2
Washington Nationals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 14)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 17)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 21)
Analysis: Finnegan is making his third career major league start today. While he has had some success thus far, he is still a huge underdog on the road, as he squares off against the Nationals. Finnegan is not a recommended cash game option, but the Nationals’ lineup looks awfully weak today with Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth both getting the day off. Finnegan could be a decent target in tournaments.
Pitcher Rating: 55.7
Max Scherzer : FD: $11,000 — DK: $12,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 425.1 — SIERA: 2.88 — ERA: 3.03 — K%: 28.5% — BB%: 5.4% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.0 — SIERA: 3.02 — ERA: 3.44 — K%: 26.3% — BB%: 2.2% — HR/9: 1.9
Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 23.1% (Rank: 24)
Pitches per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Scherzer is the top-rated pitcher on the board today, although he is not available in the evening slate, so we are only able to target him in the all-day slate of games. He draws a favorable matchup against the Reds and he gets to face them at home. Scherzer has an elite strikeout rate and he is a sizable favorite.
Pitcher Rating: 97.9
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
The Reds draw one of the toughest matchups on the board, as they square off against Max Scherzer. While he has allowed quite a few home runs recently, he is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Reds can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
NONE
Washington
The Nationals draw a decent matchup against Brandon Finnegan, who is still unproven at the major league level. Finnegan appears to have reverse-splits, but the sample size is too small to use. The right-handed hitters in this lineup are the preferred targets today at home.
Elite Plays:
Anthony Rendon : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 238 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.128 — wRC+: 128
Last 30 Days: PA: 128 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 112
Secondary Plays:
Wilson Ramos : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,100
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 205 — wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.119 — wRC+: 85
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.246 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 50
Michael Taylor : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.151 — wRC+: 86
Last 30 Days: PA: 87 — wOBA: 0.222 — ISO: 0.051 — wRC+: 34
Tyler Moore : FD: $2,400 — DK: $2,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.225 — wRC+: 100
Last 30 Days: PA: 29 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.286 — wRC+: 117
Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM EST
| Boston | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Eduardo Rodriguez |  | Ivan Nova | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY (-131) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.844 | 0.359 | 20.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.308 | 0.832 | 0.361 | 10.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.661 | 0.292 | 18.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.820 | 0.356 | 18.80% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Eduardo Rodriguez : FD: $7,600 — DK: $8,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 109.2 — SIERA: 4.15 — ERA: 3.94 — K%: 19.0% — BB%: 7.3% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.1 — SIERA: 4.03 — ERA: 1.93 — K%: 20.0% — BB%: 6.7% — HR/9: 0.4
New York Yankees Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 12)
Pitches per PA: 3.91 (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Rodriguez has been in decent form recently, posting a 4.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.0% over the last month of play. The issue tonight is his matchup. On the season, the Yankees are ranked third in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Rodriguez is a small underdog in what is expected to be a high scoring affair.
Pitcher Rating: 52.6
Ivan Nova : FD: $6,300 — DK: $4,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 96.1 — SIERA: 4.67 — ERA: 5.79 — K%: 13.5% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 1.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 17.2 — SIERA: 5.58 — ERA: 9.68 — K%: 9.0% — BB%: 7.9% — HR/9: 2.6
Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.336 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 13)
Pitches per PA: 3.95 (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Nova has not fared well over the last month of play, posting a 5.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 9.0%. He draws a difficult matchup against the Red Sox, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA and second in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Yankees are small favorites, but neither pitchers stands out as a great fantasy option.
Pitcher Rating: 42.5
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox draw a favorable matchup against Ivan Nova, who has allowed a .356 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. This rivalry produces a lot of high-scoring games and I’m expected another one tonight in Yankee Stadium.
Elite Plays:
Editor’s Note: Ortiz is not in the starting lineup tonight.
David Ortiz : FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 811 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.280 — wRC+: 145
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.469 — ISO: 0.455 — wRC+: 201
Mookie Betts : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 596 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.177 — wRC+: 117
Last 30 Days: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.432 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 175
Secondary Plays:
Dustin Pedroia : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 720 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.105 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.445 — ISO: 0.264 — wRC+: 184
Travis Shaw : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 127 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 98
Last 30 Days: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 107
NY Yankees
The Yankees draw a favorable matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez tonight at home. Rodriguez is a reverse-splits pitcher, but that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid all hitters from the right side of the plate. A discounted Alex Rodriguez is on my radar, as he has a .406 wOBA and a .306 ISO against southpaws this season.
Elite Plays:
Alex Rodriguez : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 165 — wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.306 — wRC+: 160
Last 30 Days: PA: 88 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.273 — wRC+: 118
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Beltran : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 283 — wOBA: 0.277 — ISO: 0.146 — wRC+: 72
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 114
Jacoby Ellsbury : FD: $2,600 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 346 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.128 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.221 — ISO: 0.058 — wRC+: 32
Chase Headley : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 313 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.135 — wRC+: 111
Last 30 Days: PA: 113 — wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.100 — wRC+: 76
St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM EST
| St. Louis | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
 | Lance Lynn |  | J.A. Happ | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-137) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.749 | 0.331 | 16.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.776 | 0.337 | 24.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.626 | 0.279 | 25.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.261 | 0.737 | 0.322 | 18.90% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Lance Lynn : FD: $8,600 — DK: $8,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 363.0 — SIERA: 3.92 — ERA: 2.98 — K%: 21.6% — BB%: 8.8% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.2 — SIERA: 5.78 — ERA: 5.11 — K%: 10.7% — BB%: 13.4% — HR/9: 1.1
Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 16)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 22)
Analysis: Lynn has not been sharp over the last month of play, posting a 5.78 SIERA with a walk rate of 13.4%. I never recommend taking pitchers in bad form, unless of course, it comes with a huge price drop. Even at $8,500 – $8,600, that’s not cheap enough given his last few outings. He should be avoided on the road tonight against the Pirates.
Pitcher Rating: 59.6
J.A. Happ : FD: $7,300 — DK: $7,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 312.2 — SIERA: 3.94 — ERA: 4.03 — K%: 20.0% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.1 — SIERA: 2.77 — ERA: 1.48 — K%: 28.6% — BB%: 3.4% — HR/9: 0.3
St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (Rank: 27)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Happ has been terrific over the last month of play, posting a 2.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.6%. We’ve gotten to the point where we need to take notice of how well he has been pitching. He has a good chance to keep it going tonight against a Cardinals’ offense that is ranked 26th in team wOBA and 29th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Vegas also like Happ in this spot, as he is a sizable favorite with the total set at only 7.5 runs.
Pitcher Rating: 79.4
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
The Cardinals draw a decent matchup against J.A. Happ on paper, but given his form and the fact that the Cardinals are one of the worst hitting teams against left-handed pitching, I will have very little exposure to St. Louis tonight.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Stephen Piscotty : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.428 — ISO: 0.224 — wRC+: 176
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.139 — wRC+: 131
Jhonny Peralta : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 308 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 100 — wOBA: 0.249 — ISO: 0.056 — wRC+: 54
Pittsburgh
The Pirates draw a favorable matchup against Lance Lynn, whose recent walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate. Lynn has allowed a .331 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons, while holding right-handed bats to a .279 wOBA.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Andrew McCutchen : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1031 — wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 157
Last 30 Days: PA: 122 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.095 — wRC+: 123
Gregory Polanco : FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 703 — wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.132 — wRC+: 106
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.254 — ISO: 0.100 — wRC+: 60
Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST
| Toronto | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Marco Estrada |  | Chris Tillman | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-128) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.211 | 0.669 | 0.293 | 17.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.681 | 0.303 | 17.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.723 | 0.317 | 20.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.746 | 0.325 | 16.60% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Marco Estrada : FD: $8,900 — DK: $6,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 311.0 — SIERA: 4.29 — ERA: 3.73 — K%: 19.2% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 1.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.2 — SIERA: 5.13 — ERA: 2.95 — K%: 15.6% — BB%: 7.8% — HR/9: 2.0
Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 21)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 17)
Analysis: Estrada has been an easy pitcher to avoid this season. He has given up 1.5 home runs per nine innings over the last two years and he has a below-average strikeout rate. Even though the Orioles have the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, they also have the third-highest team wOBA as well. Estrada can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating: 56.5
Chris Tillman : FD: $6,700 — DK: $4,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 361.2 — SIERA: 4.44 — ERA: 4.13 — K%: 16.8% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.1 — SIERA: 4.59 — ERA: 7.76 — K%: 15.4% — BB%: 7.7% — HR/9: 1.4
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 9)
Pitches per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Tillman comes into tonight’s start in subpar form, posting a 4.59 SIERA (7.76 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 15.4% over the last month of play. His struggles will almost certainly continue tonight, as he takes on a Blue Jays’ offense that is ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Tillman should not be on your radar tonight in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards.
Pitcher Rating: 42.3
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays have one of the highest team totals on the board tonight, as they square off against Chris Tillman in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Tillman allows a slightly higher wOBA to right-handed hitters, which bodes well for this potent Blue Jays’ offense.
Elite Plays:
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,900 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1028 — wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.259 — wRC+: 150
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.287 — wRC+: 176
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,900 — DK: $5,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1045 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.205 — wRC+: 128
Last 30 Days: PA: 123 — wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.272 — wRC+: 163
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,900 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 895 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.288 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.468 — ISO: 0.371 — wRC+: 203
Ben Revere : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 865 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.063 — wRC+: 92
Last 30 Days: PA: 122 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.070 — wRC+: 111
Baltimore
The Orioles’ offense has been a bit of a disappointment this season, but they draw a favorable matchup tonight against Marco Estrada, who gives up a lot of home runs. Manny Machado and Steve Pearce have both been swinging hot bats recently and they are both on my radar at their respective positions.
Elite Plays:
Manny Machado : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 749 — wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 134
Last 30 Days: PA: 122 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 114
Secondary Plays:
Steve Pearce : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 436 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.219 — wRC+: 127
Last 30 Days: PA: 87 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.299 — wRC+: 110
Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM EST
| Minnesota | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Phil Hughes |  | Corey Kluber | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-153) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.680 | 0.295 | 18.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.710 | 0.311 | 26.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.295 | 0.794 | 0.342 | 18.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.211 | 0.552 | 0.242 | 29.30% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Phil Hughes : FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 359.0 — SIERA: 3.69 — ERA: 3.96 — K%: 18.6% — BB%: 2.2% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 5.0 — SIERA: 3.25 — ERA: 7.20 — K%: 22.7% — BB%: 4.6% — HR/9: 1.8
Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.350 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% (Rank: 2)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 4)
Analysis: Hughes may have a 7.20 ERA over the last month of play, but his indicators tell another story. During that same stretch, he has a 3.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.7%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Indians, who are ranked 16th in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The recent form is encouraging, but Hughes is a deep tournament play at best tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 56.1
Corey Kluber : FD: $9,700 — DK: $11,300
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 440.0 — SIERA: 2.77 — ERA: 2.90 — K%: 28.0% — BB%: 5.1% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 17.2 — SIERA: 2.66 — ERA: 2.55 — K%: 30.6% — BB%: 4.2% — HR/9: 1.5
Minnesota Twins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.335 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 18.2% (Rank: 4)
Pitches per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 12)
Analysis: In his two starts since returning from injury, Kluber has thrown 61 and 72 pitches. It’s clear that the Indians are playing it safe with him for the rest of the season, which really limits his upside in DFS. The Twins are still alive in the Wildcard race though, so hopefully they will extend him a bit tonight if he is pitching well. That said, there are enough red flags to warrant a fade tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 85.6
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Even though I will not be using Corey Kluber as my cash game pitcher tonight, I will have little to no exposure to the Twins’ offense either. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
NONE
Cleveland
The Indians draw a favorable matchup tonight against Phil Hughes, who has had a season to forget. The Indians’ lineup can’t exactly take advantage of Hughes’ splits though, as they have primarily left-handed hitters in their lineup.
Elite Plays:
Jason Kipnis : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 753 — wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.135 — wRC+: 127
Last 30 Days: PA: 108 — wOBA: 0.245 — ISO: 0.110 — wRC+: 51
Secondary Plays:
Francisco Lindor : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 245 — wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.166 — wRC+: 120
Last 30 Days: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.257 — wRC+: 162
Carlos Santana : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 840 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.197 — wRC+: 117
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 143