MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 7th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Baltimore at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST
| Baltimore | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Wei-Yin Chen |  | Michael Pineda | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY (-154) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.658 | 0.288 | 16.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.648 | 0.280 | 21.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.777 | 0.336 | 19.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.676 | 0.293 | 23.80% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Wei-Yin Chen : FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 346.1 — SIERA: 3.90 — ERA: 3.46 — K%: 18.5% — BB%: 4.9% — HR/9: 1.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.2 — SIERA: 3.96 — ERA: 3.52 — K%: 17.8% — BB%: 3.9% — HR/9: 1.2
New York Yankees Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 6)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 24)
Pitches per PA: 3.90 (Rank: 4)
Analysis: Chen has been in relatively good form recently, posting a 3.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.8% over the last mont of play. The big issue with him today is his matchup against the Yankees. On the season, New York is ranked third in team wOBA and sixth in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. He can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating: 50.0
Michael Pineda : FD: $8,600 — DK: $8,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 204.2 — SIERA: 3.11 — ERA: 3.25 — K%: 22.7% — BB%: 2.8% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 10.1 — SIERA: 2.51 — ERA: 5.23 — K%: 24.4% — BB%: 2.4% — HR/9: 0.9
Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 22.3% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.286 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 25.0% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 17)
Analysis: Pineda may have a 5.23 ERA over the last month of play, but his indicators are pointing in the right direction. During that same time period, he has a 2.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate 24.4%. Pineda is a boom or bust play today against the Orioles, who are ranked sixth in team wOBA and 28th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The strikeout potential is there, but so is the risk. Pineda is a better target for tournaments than he is for cash games.
Pitcher Rating: 82.6
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
The Orioles may be playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but their matchup against Michael Pineda is less than ideal. Since the start of the 2014 season, Pineda has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA. Chris Davis has been hitting home runs left and right recently, but he should be restricted to tournament play.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Chris Davis : FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 751 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.265 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.438 — ISO: 0.390 — wRC+: 183
NY Yankees
The Yankees have a fairly high run total today, as they square off against Wei-Yin Chen at home. The right-handed hitters have the edge in this matchup, as Chen has given up a .336 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays:
Alex Rodriguez : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 154 — wOBA: 0.422 — ISO: 0.309 — wRC+: 173
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.236 — ISO: 0.131 — wRC+: 43
Chris Young : FD: $2,900 — DK: $2,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 234 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 129
Last 30 Days: PA: 43 — wOBA: 0.190 — ISO: 0.079 — wRC+: 11
Secondary Plays:
Chase Headley : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 297 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 114
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 120
Jacoby Ellsbury : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 329 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.135 — wRC+: 115
Last 30 Days: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 88
NY Mets at Washington – 1:05 PM EST
| NY Mets | Washington | ||||||||
 | Jonathon Niese |  | Max Scherzer | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-180) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.715 | 0.313 | 18.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.682 | 0.299 | 25.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.751 | 0.330 | 16.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.584 | 0.257 | 33.00% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | WAS vs L | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jon Niese : FD: $7,400 — DK: $5,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 345.1 — SIERA: 3.98 — ERA: 3.75 — K%: 16.6% — BB%: 6.3% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 4.54 — ERA: 7.06 — K%: 15.5% — BB%: 8.5% — HR/9: 1.8
Washington Nationals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.393 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 21)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Niese has not been sharp in his recent outings, posting a 4.54 SIERA (7.06 ERA) with a low strikeout rate of 15.5%. He draws a difficult matchup against the Nationals, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching and first in team wOBA over the last two weeks of play. There is more risk than potential reward here. Niese should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.
Pitcher Rating: 43.1
Max Scherzer : FD: $10,800 — DK: $12,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 404.1 — SIERA: 2.83 — ERA: 3.03 — K%: 28.8% — BB%: 5.4% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.0 — SIERA: 2.68 — ERA: 6.11 — K%: 29.5% — BB%: 3.1% — HR/9: 2.6
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 14)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.385 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 15.8% (Rank: 2)
Pitches per PA: 3.87 (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Scherzer may have a 6.11 ERA over the last month of play, but don’t let that fool you. His home runs per nine innings during that stretch is at an unsustainable 2.6. His indicators still look great, as he has a 2.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.5% during that same stretch. He draws an intriguing matchup against the Mets. While they have been much better recently, they are still ranked 22nd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Scherzer is a strong play in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating: 91.2
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets have one of the lowest team totals on the board tonight, as they square off against Max Scherzer in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. They can safely be avoided here, as Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA since the start of last season.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
NONE
Washington
The Nationals draw a favorable matchup against Jon Niese, who comes into today’s start in less than stellar form. Niese has allowed a .330 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons and the Nationals are one of the hottest offenses in baseball. All of the right-handed hitters (plus Bryce Harper) are in play today at home.
Elite Plays:
Ian Desmond : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 282 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.181 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.233 — wRC+: 147
Anthony Rendon : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 225 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.134 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.102 — wRC+: 92
Secondary Plays:
Bryce Harper : FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 274 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 148
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.442 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 184
Jayson Werth : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 216 — wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.202 — wRC+: 143
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.202 — wRC+: 114
Tampa Bay at Detroit – 1:08 PM EST
| Tampa Bay | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Drew Smyly |  | Randy Wolf | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-125) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.173 | 0.488 | 0.216 | 29.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.258 | 0.619 | 0.292 | 11.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.764 | 0.333 | 20.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.322 | 0.900 | 0.390 | 17.70% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs L | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Drew Smyly : FD: $7,400 — DK: $9,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 190.2 — SIERA: 3.58 — ERA: 3.21 — K%: 22.6% — BB%: 6.5% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 21.0 — SIERA: 3.82 — ERA: 3.43 — K%: 22.6% — BB%: 5.4% — HR/9: 1.3
Detroit Tigers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 18.1% (Rank: 11)
Pitches per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Smyly has pitched well since coming back from injury, posting a 3.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.6% over the last month of play. He is coming off of his best start of the season, where he struck out ten batters over seven scoreless innings of work against the Orioles. The issue today is his matchup. The Tigers are ranked second in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and Smyly has to face them in the hitter-friendly Comerica Park.
Pitcher Rating: 66.0
Randy Wolf : FD: $5,600 — DK: $4,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 43.1 — SIERA: 4.15 — ERA: 5.61 — K%: 16.4% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 1.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 17.2 — SIERA: 4.38 — ERA: 6.11 — K%: 15.8% — BB%: 6.6% — HR/9: 1.0
Tampa Bay Rays Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 20)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.351 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 13)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Wolf is coming off of a bad start against the Royals. He gave up eight earned runs while failing to get out of the fourth inning. He draws a difficult matchup today against the Rays, who are ranked fifth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Given the form and the matchup, Wolf is an easy avoid in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating: 42.8
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
The Rays draw a favorable matchup against Randy Wolf, who is well past his prime and coming off of his worst start of the season. The Rays hit left-handed pitching well as a team and Wolf has allowed a .390 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
Elite Plays:
Evan Longoria : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 311 — wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 144
Last 30 Days: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.286 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 83
Secondary Plays:
Logan Forsythe : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 1B/2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 309 — wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.245 — wRC+: 141
Last 30 Days: PA: 101 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 137
Asdrubal Cabrera : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 302 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 100
Last 30 Days: PA: 101 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 129
Brandon Guyer : FD: $2,500 — DK: $2,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 302 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 133
Last 30 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 169
Detroit
The Tigers are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. The problem is their matchup against Drew Smyly is mediocre at best. Smyly is coming off of his best outing of the season and he has shown a lot of promise in his young career. The Tigers are in play at home, but their aren’t any hitters that really stand out as elite plays.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Miguel Cabrera : FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 268 — wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.246 — wRC+: 165
Last 30 Days: PA: 86 — wOBA: 0.456 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 196
J.D. Martinez : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 250 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.294 — wRC+: 158
Last 30 Days: PA: 108 — wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.247 — wRC+: 142
Rajai Davis : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 291 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 129
Last 30 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.231 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 40
Victor Martinez : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,000
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 252 — wOBA: 0.438 — ISO: 0.246 — wRC+: 186
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.243 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 48
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM EST
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Jeff Locke |  | Anthony Desclafani | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-125) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.684 | 0.303 | 10.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.792 | 0.343 | 18.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.749 | 0.328 | 18.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.709 | 0.306 | 18.30% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeff Locke : FD: $5,900 — DK: $5,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 276.1 — SIERA: 4.16 — ERA: 4.30 — K%: 16.6% — BB%: 7.8% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.0 — SIERA: 4.32 — ERA: 6.23 — K%: 12.3% — BB%: 5.7% — HR/9: 1.4
Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 8)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 9)
Pitches per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 23)
Analysis: Locke has not pitched well in his last few outings, posting a 4.32 SIERA (6.23 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 12.3%. He draws a difficult matchup today against the Reds in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. On the season, the Reds are ranked seventh in team wOBA and eighth in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Locke can safely be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.
Pitcher Rating: 53.4
Anthony Desclafani : FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 188.2 — SIERA: 4.19 — ERA: 4.29 — K%: 18.3% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.2 — SIERA: 3.63 — ERA: 4.55 — K%: 21.3% — BB%: 4.9% — HR/9: 1.2
Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 14)
Pitches per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Desclafani has been in relatively good form recently, posting a 3.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.3% over the last month of play. He draws a mediocre matchup today against the Pirates, who are ranked 17th in team wOBA and 21st in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. There are better pitching options on the board.
Pitcher Rating: 54.2
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
The Pirates draw a mediocre matchup against Anthony Desclafani. While he has pitched well recently, he has struggled against left-handed hitters and the Pirates get to face him in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
Elite Plays:
Gregory Polanco : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 654 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.128 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 122 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.142 — wRC+: 120
Secondary Plays:
Andrew McCutchen : FD: $4,900 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 976 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.219 — wRC+: 160
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.446 — ISO: 0.239 — wRC+: 190
Cincinnati
The Reds are a very sneaky offense to target today, as they square off against the struggling Jeff Locke at home. Since the start of the 2014 season, Locke has given up a .328 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Todd Frazier remains an elite play on FanDuel, as he is still listed at a bargain-bin price of only $2,300.
Elite Plays:
Todd Frazier : FD: $2,300 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 278 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.270 — wRC+: 133
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.168 — wRC+: 87
Secondary Plays:
Joey Votto : FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 233 — wOBA: 0.425 — ISO: 0.257 — wRC+: 171
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.527 — ISO: 0.393 — wRC+: 240
Eugenio Suarez : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 160 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 106
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.245 — wRC+: 121
Milwaukee at Miami – 1:10 PM EST
| Milwaukee | Miami | ||||||||
 | Zach Davies |  | Justin Nicolino | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-130) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.125 | 0.347 | 0.174 | 22.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.273 | 0.719 | 0.318 | 14.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.333 | 1.233 | 0.507 | 9.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.737 | 0.318 | 6.20% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | Batter Splits | MIA vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Zachary Davies : FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 4.1 — SIERA: 5.73 — ERA: 8.31 — K%: 15.0% — BB%: 15.0% — HR/9: 2.1
Miami Marlins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 9)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 16.7% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 29)
Analysis: Davies didn’t fare well in his major league debut. He gave up four earned runs to the Pirates in just over four innings of work. He will look for a better outing this time around, although for our purposes, he should be avoided until he gives us a reason not to. Even though the Marlins are ranked dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, Davies is still a wildcard at this stage of his career.
Pitcher Rating: 31.1
Justin Nicolino : FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 44.0 — SIERA: 5.38 — ERA: 3.07 — K%: 8.5% — BB%: 7.3% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 5.34 — ERA: 2.73 — K%: 8.2% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 0.6
Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 16)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.351 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 25)
Pitches per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 25)
Analysis: Nicolino may have a 2.73 ERA over the last month of play, but his 5.34 SIERA and his 8.2% strikeout rate are both huge red flags. Those are not indicative of future success, which is why I will not be targeting him in any league format today. It also doesn’t help that he has to face a red-hot Brewers’ offense that is ranked sixth in team wOBA over the last two weeks of play.
Pitcher Rating: 35.3
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
The Brewers draw a favorable matchup against Justin Nicolino, although they do have to face him in the pitcher-friendly Miller Park. All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play against the young left-hander, but they are all secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun : FD: $4,700 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 265 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.251 — wRC+: 142
Last 30 Days: PA: 98 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.207 — wRC+: 141
Khris Davis : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 222 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.204 — wRC+: 89
Last 30 Days: PA: 95 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.384 — wRC+: 138
Jonathan Lucroy : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 241 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.131 — wRC+: 103
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.225 — wRC+: 137
Miami
The Marlins’ offense has been sputtering recently, but they draw an intriguing matchup against Zach Davies, who is only making his second career major league start. I won’t be heavily target the Marlins here, but Dee Gordon and Justin Bour are both worth a look as secondary plays.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Dee Gordon : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 903 — wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.085 — wRC+: 101
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.105 — wRC+: 111
Justin Bour : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 370 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.185 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 100 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.202 — wRC+: 103