MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 9 - Page Two
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City – 2:10 PM EST
| Chicago White Sox | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Jose Quintana |  | Danny Duffy | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KCR (-134) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.24 | 0.648 | 0.285 | 0.217 | SP vs. Left | 0.186 | 0.48 | 0.222 | 0.169 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.711 | 0.312 | 0.211 | SP vs. Right | 0.24 | 0.72 | 0.318 | 0.17 |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CWS vs L | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jose Quintana – Quintana is a very underappreciated pitcher with above average numbers in every category. The problem with using him today is the matchup with Kansas City, the toughest team in the league to strikeout. He has a good chance to put up a decent stat line in a pitchers park, but there is not a high ceiling against the Royals. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 141 – SIERA: 3.43 – ERA: 3.50 – K%: 20.9% – BB%: 4.9% – HR/9: 0.70
Salaries: $8,400 FD, $8,400 DK
Danny Duffy – Duffy has a few recent starts that look decent on the surface, but the 5.05 SIERA and low strikeout numbers tell a different story. I can’t recommend a pitcher with a 14:16 K:BB ratio over his last six starts. Maybe he limits the damage again, but there is much more downside than upside here. Pitcher Rating – 3.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 89 – SIERA: 5.05 – ERA: 4.04 – K%: 14.2% – BB%: 9.7% – HR/9: 1.01
Salaries: $6,900 FD, $5,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – Even before the two home run game last night, it looked like Abreu was starting to heat up at the plate. He has a .407 wOBA over the past month and faces a pitcher in Duffy who has bad numbers against right-handed batters. Abreu has reverse splits this season, but this matchup is too good to overlook.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .322 – ISO: .169 – wRC+:109
Melky Cabrera – Melky has cooled down a little but still has a .409 wOBA and .383 OBP for the past month. Like Abreu, he has been better against right-handed pitching this year, but the matchup looks good for these White Sox despite the overall numbers against lefties not looking great. Most of Cabrera’s struggles came early in the season which are dragging down his overall stats.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .271 – OBP: .269 – ISO: .118 – wRC+:68
Secondary Plays:
Avisail Garcia – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .336 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .110 – wRC+:113
Kansas City
The Royals are a difficult team to figure today. On one hand, they are a solid all around offensive team, but they don’t have a lot of individual hitters that stand out as elite plays against a solid pitcher. Outside of Lorenzo Cain, I would consider them secondary plays or tournament options.
Lorenzo Cain – Cain has very impressive numbers against left-handed pitching over the past two seasons, and his power-speed combo gives him lots of ways to help score points.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .436 – OBP: .426 – ISO: .246 – wRC+:183
Secondary Plays:
Kendrys Morales – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .334 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .100 – wRC+:113
Alcides Escobar – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .291 – OBP: .326 – ISO: .050 – wRC+:83
St. Louis at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM EST
| St. Louis | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | John Lackey |  | Jimmy Nelson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-130) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.709 | 0.312 | 0.159 | SP vs. Left | 0.28 | 0.815 | 0.353 | 0.17 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.692 | 0.303 | 0.219 | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.635 | 0.285 | 0.216 |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
John Lackey – It’s easy to forget about Lackey, but he has posted ten straight quality starts, with a 1.91 ERA over that stretch. None of his stats are elite, his peripherals look more like an average pitcher, so it’s hard to get excited about using him. He has only struck out more than six batters in four of his 22 starts, so there is not immense upside here. He is unlikely to hurt you, but there are more exciting options available. Pitcher Rating – 6.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 145 – SIERA: 4.02 – ERA: 2.85 – K%: 17.8% – BB%: 5.8% – HR/9: 0.68
Salaries: $8,800 FD, $8,900 DK
Jimmy Nelson – Nelson now has three consecutive starts where he hasn’t allowed an earned run. His strikeout rate is right at league average, with a solid 50% ground ball rate and 10.2% swinging strike rate. He has been much better at home with a 60:16 K:BB ratio vs 50:31 on the road. The Cardinals are not an easy team to strike out, knocking him down a notch, but he is worth consideration as an SP2.
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 136 – SIERA: 3.94 – ERA: 3.57 – K%: 20.1% – BB%: 8.5% – HR/9: 0.86
Salaries: $7,800 FD, $8,300 DK
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Matt Carpenter – Despite the recent success of Jimmy Nelson, he has had some trouble with left-handed batters, and Matt Carpenter has been on fire with six home runs in the last nine games.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .390 – ISO: .221 – wRC+:148
Secondary Plays:
Kolten Wong – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .348 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .174 – wRC+:124
Jason Heyward – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .326 – ISO: .156 – wRC+:109
Milwaukee
Adam Lind – John Lackey is solid against right-handers, but his strikeout rate drops all the way to 11.9% against left-handed batters. Lind continues to be an elite hitter against right-handed pitching.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .387 – OBP: .383 – ISO: .225 – wRC+: 145
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .345 – OBP: .328 – ISO: .208 – wRC+: 116
Scooter Gennett – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .298 – OBP: .301 – ISO: .140 – wRC+: 84
San Francisco at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM EST
| San Francisco | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Jake Peavy |  | Jake Arrieta | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (0) | 0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.771 | 0.335 | 0.174 | SP vs. Left | 0.189 | 0.548 | 0.248 | 0.294 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.695 | 0.308 | 0.194 | SP vs. Right | 0.215 | 0.569 | 0.252 | 0.248 |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SF vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Peavy – Peavy was dominant against the Braves in his last start with eight strikeouts and one run allowed in six innings. He has been decent in all his starts since coming off the DL in early July, but his underlying numbers don’t support these kind of results. A low 8.2% swinging strike rate shows very little upside, even against a Cubs team with strikeout tendencies. If you want to believe that his last start was the sign of a resurgence, feel free to call him a long shot tournament play, but I have no interest in using him. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 45 – SIERA: 4.13 – ERA: 3.77 – K%: 17.8% – BB%: 6.0% – HR/9: 0.99
Salaries: $7,200 FD, $6,900 DK
Jake Arrieta – Arrieta is an ace that still doesn’t seem to be getting the credit he deserves. He combines high strikeouts and low walks with a 51% ground ball rate that helps limit any possible damage against him. He has thrown nine straight quality starts and hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any game all year. The only problem today is a matchup with the pesky Giants who are very tough to strike out. That moves him below Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber and Chris Archer in my rankings, but he is certainly very much in play. Pitcher Rating – 8.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 147 – SIERA: 2.93 – ERA: 2.50 – K%: 26.5% – BB%: 6.5% – HR/9: 0.55
Salaries: $10,300 FD, $11,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
The Giants are a strong team but don’t rank very high in a tough matchup with Jake Arrieta. Buster Posey is always a tournament option at catcher.
Secondary Plays:
Buster Posey – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .391 – OBP: .403 – ISO: .173 – wRC+: 160
Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo is one of the top hitters on the day with elite plate skills and power upside.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .379 – ISO: .251 – wRC+: 147
Kyle Schwarber – Schwarber is certainly not going to keep up this pace, but for now, we need to just keep using him in good matchups.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .482 – OBP: .461 – ISO: .303 – wRC+: 215
Secondary Plays:
Chris Coghlan – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .342 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .184 – wRC+: 119
Dexter Fowler – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .310 – OBP: .320 – ISO: .157 – wRC+: 96
Kris Bryant – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .352 – OBP: .364 – ISO: .185 – wRC+: 125
Baltimore at LA Angels – 3:37 PM EST
| Baltimore | LA Angels | ||||||||
 | Miguel Gonzalez |  | Jered Weaver | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAA (0) | 0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.76 | 0.333 | 0.165 | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.739 | 0.325 | 0.18 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.754 | 0.331 | 0.178 | SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.296 | 0.154 |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez is a very average pitcher with very little upside. He has allowed between three and five runs in over half of his starts. He is bland in every way, no big splits, no strong ground ball or fly ball tilt. He is not an option to use on the road against the Angels. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 114 – SIERA: 4.29 – ERA: 4.32 – K%: 17.8% – BB%: 7.5% – HR/9: 1.41
Salaries: $7,400 FD, $6,200 DK
Jered Weaver – Weaver comes off the DL to make his first start since June, and a glance at his game log and stats for the season do not inspire confidence. He is a fly ball pitcher who continues to lose his dominance as he ages. He was surviving over the past few seasons with a strikeout rate of 19%, but dropping down to 12% is just not going to work. Any extreme fly ball pitcher will occasionally have a good game where the balls stay in the park, but this powerful Orioles lineup is likely to do some damage against him. Pitcher Rating – 3.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 96 – SIERA: 4.80 – ERA: 4.75 – K%: 12.2% – BB%: 4.0% – HR/9: 1.49
Salaries: $7,400 FD, $7,500 DK
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Chris Davis – Davis has the highest home run upside of any player on the schedule today against Jered Weaver.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .363 – OBP: .331 – ISO: .288 – wRC+: 132
Manny Machado – Machado is a reverse splits hitter who should have no trouble hitting the ball hard against Weaver.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .392 – OBP: .371 – ISO: .242 – wRC+: 152
Secondary Plays:
Adam Jones – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .312 – ISO: .192 – wRC+: 112
Matt Wieters – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .296 – OBP: .282 – ISO: .155 – wRC+: 85
LA Angels
Mike Trout – The best hitter in the league should have no trouble with Gonzalez and can be considered one of the top overall plays if you’re looking to spend up for a hitter.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .424 – OBP: .398 – ISO: .310 – wRC+:181
Albert Pujols – Nearly all of Pujols power has come against right-handed pitching this season.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .376 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .271 – wRC+:147
Kole Calhoun – Calhoun will continue to benefit from hitting around the likes of Trout and Pujols. He has been hitting well, raising his average 20 points over the past month.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .334 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .163 – wRC+:119
Secondary Plays:
Houston at Oakland – 4:05 PM EST
| Houston | Oakland | ||||||||
 | Mike Fiers |  | Chris Bassitt | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| OAK (-110) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.657 | 0.288 | 0.244 | SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.676 | 0.308 | 0.172 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.702 | 0.304 | 0.257 | SP vs. Right | 0.25 | 0.653 | 0.29 | 0.161 |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | OAK vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Mike Fiers – Fiers is an intriguing pitcher today against Oakland’s struggling offense. They are dead last in the league in scoring over the past 14 days. While they don’t have a high strikeout rate, Fiers strikes out over a batter per inning, so they should be able to meet in the middle somewhere. He allows a lot of fly balls, but this is not an offense or ballpark that scares me from a home run perspective. I don’t want to oversell him, he’s not a cash game option with the aces available today, but can be considered as an SP2 or tournament play. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 123 – SIERA: 3.75 – ERA: 4.17 – K%: 23.8% – BB%: 8.6% – HR/9: 1.10
Chris Bassitt – Bassitt has looked quite good since being put in the rotation, with just ten runs allowed in his six starts. It is a small sample size helped by a low BABIP and HR/FB, so don’t get too excited, but his 4.26 SIERA shows that he might be an average pitcher even when the luck evens out. He has a fly ball lean so far this season, and this Houston offense is dangerous and seems likely to bring his HR/FB rate back up. The combination of a below average strikeout rate and facing a team with big power potential make him a difficult play to recommend. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 47 – SIERA: 4.26 – ERA: 2.64 – K%: 17.7% – BB%: 7.3% – HR/9: 0.57
Salaries: $6,200 FD, $5,500 DK
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Houston has a lot of home run upside though it’s hard to say where or when it will show up. Lots of tournament targets here, but risky cash game plays.
Carlos Correa – Correa is the top target from this lineup with his elite performance in his rookie season at a difficult position to find upside.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .369 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .252 – wRC+:137
Secondary Plays:
Preston Tucker – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .388 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .274 – wRC+:150
Evan Gattis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .317 – OBP: .279 – ISO: .213 – wRC+:101
Carlos Gomez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .333 – OBP: .326 – ISO: .127 – wRC+108
Jose Altuve – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .295 – OBP: .304 – ISO: .099 – wRC+:85
Oakland
Oakland is not a team to be looking towards for offense with the way they’re playing right now. You might consider Josh Reddick on sites where his salary is depressed as his numbers for the season are great against right-handers.
Secondary Plays:
Josh Reddick – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .374 – OBP: .360 – ISO: .196 – wRC+:144