MLB Grind Down: Thursday, October 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:07:27

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Toronto at Texas – 4:35 PM ET

Toronto					Texas
			Marco Estrada					Cole Hamels
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX -140					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.266	11	26.7%	22.5%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.271	4	31.6%	21.1%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.293	12	36.4%	23.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.316	20	32.1%	24.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		32.0	FPPG:		16.8
					Pitcher Rating:		52.4	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	95.3	4.50	3.98	25.0%	11.0%	11.5%	27.1%	56.5%	24.1%
2016	29	98.0	4.35	3.48	22.8%	9.0%	10.9%	33.5%	48.2%	31.3%
2015	28	104.0	4.64	3.13	18.1%	7.6%	9.9%	32.2%	52.3%	27.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.26 — K%: 20.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.34 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.274

The Blue Jays took their sweet time deciding on a starting pitcher for Game 1 of the ALDS, but they eventually settled on Marco Estrada. While he had a solid season overall, he did stumble down the stretch of the regular season. In his last six starts, he posted a 4.50 SIERA with a walk rate of 11%. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that relies on strikeouts and shallow fly balls to succeed. The issue in this matchup is that the Rangers’ offense is loaded with talented hitters. During the regular season, Texas was ranked 11th or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching. There are two pitchers in this slate that have little to no fantasy appeal in my eyes and unfortunately, Estrada is one of them.

Cole Hamels
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,900	Salary:		$10,500
					FPPG:		36.3	FPPG:		18.8
					Pitcher Rating:		89.4	Pitcher Rank:		1
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	96.8	4.09	5.86	23.8%	9.8%	12.0%	48.8%	31.3%	42.0%
2016	32	101.7	3.99	3.32	23.6%	9.1%	12.2%	49.6%	30.8%	32.0%
2015	32	104.5	3.45	3.65	24.4%	7.1%	13.3%	47.7%	31.4%	27.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.81 — K%: 24.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.312
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.18 — K%: 23.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.288

Hamels wasn’t nearly as effective at home as he was on the road this season, but he comes into this game as the highest rated pitcher in the slate. In 32 starts this season, Hamels posted a 3.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.6%. While he did struggle down the stretch of the regular season, he has a terrific track record in the postseason. In 15 career playoff starts, Hamels has a 3.03 ERA with a strikeout rate of 23.9%. On paper, this is an awful matchup, as the Blue Jays are ranked tenth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. However, Toronto hasn’t been as potent on the road and Hamels comes into the game as a sizable favorite. The pitching in this slate is ugly, but Hamels appears to be the path of least resistance.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the second lowest run projection in the slate, but they are still projected to score 4.27 runs. They get to play in a hitter-friendly ballpark and their matchup against Cole Hamels isn’t one that we need to avoid completely. In 2016, Hamels has allowed a .316 wOBA and 20 home runs to right-handed hitters. The Blue Jays on the other hand have four right-handed batters that have at least a 37% hard contact rate against southpaws this season.

• Blue Jays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.324 (10 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.168 (10 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.2% (8 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.27 (3 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas

The Rangers have the highest run projection in the slate tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against Marco Estrada and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. As I mentioned above, Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher which often leads to a lot of home runs. On the season, he has allowed 23 home runs – 11 to left-handed hitters and 12 to right-handed hitters. As one of the hottest offenses in baseball, the Rangers are my favorite offense to target. I will be loading up on Texas bats in both cash games and tournaments.

• Rangers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (11 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (8 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.0% (7 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.72 (7 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.73 (1 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Gomez, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Jonathan Lucroy, Shin-Soo Choo, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at Cleveland – 8:05 PM ET

Boston					Cleveland
			Rick Porcello					Trevor Bauer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -140					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.261	8	32.1%	21.4%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.299	8	36.5%	25.1%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.289	15	27.9%	21.1%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.320	12	28.2%	16.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,900	Salary:		$9,300
					FPPG:		38.4	FPPG:		20.5
					Pitcher Rating:		77.2	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	105.8	3.75	2.70	22.0%	2.4%	10.1%	34.7%	46.8%	28.0%
2016	33	103.3	3.78	3.15	21.2%	3.6%	8.2%	43.1%	38.0%	30.0%
2015	28	98.0	3.73	4.92	20.2%	5.2%	8.5%	45.7%	32.5%	32.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.52 — K%: 21.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.297
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.28 — K%: 20.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311

Porcello finished the season strong, posting a 2.70 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22% in his last six starts. He has great command of all his pitches and he is generally able to limit the hard contact against him. He has made eight postseason appearances, posting a 4.41 ERA (2.17 FIP) with a strikeout rate of 18.3%. The biggest issue with Porcello here is his matchup against the Indians, who were ranked tenth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. The good news is that he is a sizable favorite in this game thanks to the fact that the Indians have to start Trevor Bauer. Given the lack of pitching options in this slate, Porcello is a viable play in all formats.

Trevor Bauer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		27.1	FPPG:		13.7
					Pitcher Rating:		57.0	Pitcher Rank:		3
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	95.0	4.11	6.39	20.3%	7.4%	9.3%	48.2%	27.7%	27.2%
2016	28	110.4	4.22	4.26	20.7%	8.6%	9.0%	48.7%	30.8%	31.9%
2015	30	95.6	4.20	4.55	22.9%	10.6%	9.6%	39.2%	40.7%	31.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.14 — K%: 21.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.335
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.50 — K%: 22.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283

Carlos Carrasco (hand) is on the DL, Danny Salazar (forearm) is not on the active roster for this series, and Corey Kluber isn’t expected to pitch until Game 2. The Indians basically ran out of options and now have to put Bauer on the mound for Game 1 of the ALDS. Bauer has a decent strikeout rate, but he has to be considered one of the most hittable starters left in the postseason. In 28 starts this season, he had a 4.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.7%. He isn’t particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate and he has allowed a hard contact rate of 31.9%. To make matters worse, he has to face the best offense in baseball in the Red Sox.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox have the second highest implied team total in this slate. They draw arguably the best matchup on the board and they were the best offense in baseball during the regular season. Hitters from both sides of the plate are worth a look here and this could be a situation where we try to stack the Red Sox in both cash games and tournaments. In 2016, Trevor Bauer allowed a .320 wOBA to right-handed hitters and a 36.5% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

• Red Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.348 (1 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.183 (5 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.0% (3 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.42 (1 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.48 (2 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr., Sandy Leon, Brock Holt

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland

The Indians need a big outing from their offense if they are going to pull the upset in Game 1 of the ALDS. They come into this game as underdogs and they currently have the lowest implied team total in the slate With that said, they are still projected to score a respectable 4.02 runs tonight. Rick Porcello has been tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, but he did allow a 32.1% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this season.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.175 (9 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (10 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.83 (4 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.02 (4 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW