MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 8th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-07-08 18:28:34

Arizona at Texas – 8:05 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Arizona					Texas
			Jeremy Hellickson					Matt Harrison
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX (-130)					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.258	0.734	0.319	0.188	SP vs. Left	0.231	0.594	0.268	0.357
SP vs. Right	0.279	0.813	0.353	0.198	SP vs. Right	0.293	0.824	0.375	0.071
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs L		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson : FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 154.1 — SIERA: 3.97 — K%: 19.3% — BB%: 6.8% — FB Rate: 39.4% — HR/FB: 11.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.0 — SIERA: 3.18 — K%: 25.7% — BB%: 4.9% — FB Rate: 48.5% — HR/FB: 10.6%

Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 15)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Hellickson has pitched well recently, posting a 3.18 SIERA with a high strikeout rate of 25.7%. He has improved his command, but he is still fly-ball pitcher with an above-average HR/FB rate. That could be an issue tonight against the Rangers in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. The Rangers hit right-handed pitching well and they are ranked tenth in wOBA (.321) over the last two weeks. Hellickson can be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Pitcher Rating:48.2

Matt Harrison : FD: $4,900 — DK: $5,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 17.1 — SIERA: 5.61 — K%: 11.9% — BB%: 14.3% — FB Rate: 26.7% — HR/FB: 6.3%

Arizona Diamondbacks Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 14)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.342 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 17)
Pitchers per PA: 3.68 (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Harrison is making his first start of the season. He hasn’t pitched well in his five minor league starts, posting a 3.69 FIP with a low strikeout rate of 14.1%. He may be a favorite tonight, but I’ll side with the Diamondbacks’ offense in this one. They hit left-handed pitching very well and are playing in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.

Pitcher Rating:50.1

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Matt Harrison hasn’t had a good major-league start since 2013. He hasn’t pitched very well in the minors this season and the Diamondbacks are one of the best offenses in baseball against southpaws. All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup deserve consideration tonight.

Elite Plays:

A.J. Pollock : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 131 — wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.250 — wRC+: 155
Last 14 Days: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.111 — wRC+: 86

Welington Castillo : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,200

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 145 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.203 — wRC+: 130
Last 14 Days: PA: 38 — wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.152 — wRC+: 121

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt : FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 177 — wOBA: 0.475 — ISO: 0.243 — wRC+: 204
Last 14 Days: PA: 61 — wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.146 — wRC+: 152

Nick Ahmed : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,300

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.090 — wRC+: 101
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 119

Texas

Even though Jeremy Hellickson has pitched well recently, he has given up a .319+ wOBA to left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The Rangers hit right-handed pitching well as a team and they are affordable fantasy options on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Elite Plays:

Prince Fielder : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 326 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.144 — wRC+: 148
Last 14 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.425 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 172

Rougned Odor : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 408 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 93
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 133

Secondary Plays:

Shin-Soo Choo : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 574 — wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.168 — wRC+: 117
Last 14 Days: PA: 48 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.233 — wRC+: 89

Adrian Beltre : FD: $2,600 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 641 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 112
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.203 — ISO: 0.038 — wRC+: 17

Toronto at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Toronto					Chicago White Sox
			Drew Hutchison					John Danks
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (-154)					9
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.768	0.336	0.216	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.692	0.309	0.117
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.713	0.314	0.236	SP vs. Right	0.281	0.84	0.365	0.164
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Hutchison : FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 277.2 — SIERA: 3.66 — K%: 22.5% — BB%: 7.4% — FB Rate: 41.5% — HR/FB: 9.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.2 — SIERA: 3.94 — K%: 22.3% — BB%: 8.6% — FB Rate: 41.1% — HR/FB: 7.7%

Chicago White Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 12)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 15)
Pitchers per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 22)

Analysis: Hutchison is an intriguing play tonight against the White Sox. He is a high-strikeout pitcher that is facing a team that is ranked 24th in wOBA (.297) against right-handed pitching this season. Hutchison has good numbers away from the Rogers Centre in his career and he is a sizable favorite tonight. He’s in play as an SP2 tonight in Chicago.

Pitcher Rating:66.4

John Danks : FD: $5,900 — DK: $5,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 281.0 — SIERA: 4.58 — K%: 15.3% — BB%: 7.9% — FB Rate: 39.4% — HR/FB: 10.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 4.53 — K%: 12.9% — BB%: 4.6% — FB Rate: 36.8% — HR/FB: 12.8%

Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 17.1% (Rank: 4)
Pitchers per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Danks is coming off of a good start against the Orioles, but he is about five straight quality starts away from being a viable fantasy option. Danks is one of the worst pitchers in baseball against right-handed hitters and he has to face a right-handed heavy lineup of the Blue Jays tonight. Toronto is also ranked first in wOBA (.372) against left-handed pitching. Danks is like that old guy that you are playing against in a pick up game that just doesn’t smell right. In other words, you should keep your distance.

Pitcher Rating:30.1

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Since the start of the 2014 season, John Danks has given up a .365 wOBA to right-handed hitters. That bodes well for the Blue Jays tonight, who just so happen to be the best offense in baseball against southpaws. Load up on the Blue Jays righties here.

Elite Plays:

Jose Bautista : FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,100

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 204 — wOBA: 0.455 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 196
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 90

Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,900 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 249 — wOBA: 0.424 — ISO: 0.329 — wRC+: 178
Last 14 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.255 — wRC+: 155

Chris Colabello : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 123 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 113
Last 14 Days: PA: 34 — wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.303 — wRC+: 138

Secondary Plays:

Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 174 — wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.204 — wRC+: 135
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 147

Jose Reyes : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 239 — wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.105 — wRC+: 87
Last 14 Days: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.283 — ISO: 0.091 — wRC+: 75

Russell Martin : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 157 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.098 — wRC+: 131
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.220 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 32

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox draw a decent matchup against Drew Hutchison, who has given up a .336 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Adam Eaton and Adam LaRoche provide good value at their respective positions, while Jose Abreu and Melky Cabrera are better secondary plays at their respective positions.

Elite Plays:

Adam Eaton : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 633 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.129 — wRC+: 113
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.234 — wRC+: 109

Adam LaRoche : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 658 — wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.213 — wRC+: 139
Last 14 Days: PA: 38 — wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.206 — wRC+: 80

Secondary Plays:

Jose Abreu : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 717 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.239 — wRC+: 146
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 101

Melky Cabrera : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 708 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.122 — wRC+: 112
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.422 — ISO: 0.268 — wRC+: 172

Tampa Bay at Kansas City – 8:10 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Tampa Bay					Kansas City
			Chris Archer					Jeremy Guthrie
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TBR (-137)					7
SP vs. Left	0.216	0.602	0.271	0.243	SP vs. Left	0.306	0.863	0.376	0.144
SP vs. Right	0.232	0.621	0.28	0.251	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.612	0.273	0.126
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer : FD: $10,600 — DK: $10,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 310.1 — SIERA: 3.32 — K%: 24.7% — BB%: 7.9% — FB Rate: 31.2% — HR/FB: 8.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 39.2 — SIERA: 2.78 — K%: 28.4% — BB%: 5.2% — FB Rate: 38.0% — HR/FB: 10.5%

Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 16.2% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.273 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 14)
Pitchers per PA: 3.67 (Rank: 30)

Analysis: Archer has established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Over the last month of play, he has a 2.78 SIERA with an impressive strikeout rate of 28.4%. Archer draws a bad strikeout matchup against the Royals, but in terms of wOBA, they are actually right around the major league average against right-handed pitching. He’s not a terrible play, but why take the risk when you can spend a little more and target Clayton Kershaw against the Phillies?

Pitcher Rating:88.7

Jeremy Guthrie : FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 292.1 — SIERA: 4.52 — K%: 13.6% — BB%: 5.8% — FB Rate: 37.1% — HR/FB: 9.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.2 — SIERA: 3.96 — K%: 17.7% — BB%: 4.6% — FB Rate: 34.5% — HR/FB: 4.9%

Tampa Bay Rays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.260 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 27.3% (Rank: 30)
Pitchers per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 8)

Analysis: Guthrie has been much better in his recent outings, posting a 3.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.7%. While the matchup against the Rays is an appealing one, he will likely see very little run support with Chris Archer on the mound. Guthrie is not on my radar in cash games or tournaments tonight.

Pitcher Rating:44.2

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Since the start of the 2014 season, Jeremy Guthrie has given up a .376 wOBA to left-handed hitters. John Jaso is a great value play that will fly under the radar tonight, while Grady Sizemore and James Loney are also in play against the right-hander.

Elite Plays:

John Jaso : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 318 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.177 — wRC+: 128
Last 14 Days: PA: 5 — wOBA: 0.987 — ISO: 1.000 — wRC+: 574

Secondary Plays:

Grady Sizemore : FD: $2,500 — DK: $2,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 396 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 94
Last 14 Days: PA: 33 — wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.152 — wRC+: 96

James Loney : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 2 — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 569 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.098 — wRC+: 118
Last 14 Days: PA: 23 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 137

Kansas City

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

LA Angels at Colorado – 8:40 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
LA Angels					Colorado
			Matt Shoemaker					Chris Rusin
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-128)					11
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.729	0.318	0.192	SP vs. Left	0.292	0.82	0.353	0.133
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.681	0.297	0.245	SP vs. Right	0.303	0.848	0.366	0.156
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Shoemaker : FD: $7,600 — DK: $6,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 220.1 — SIERA: 3.43 — K%: 21.7% — BB%: 4.8% — FB Rate: 40.5% — HR/FB: 11.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.2 — SIERA: 4.15 — K%: 14.9% — BB%: 4.1% — FB Rate: 38.9% — HR/FB: 8.1%

Colorado Rockies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% (Rank: 5)
Pitchers per PA: 3.76 (Rank: 21)

Analysis: Andrew Heaney had some success in Coors Field last night, but don’t worry, it’s not turning into a trend. Coors Field is the best hitter’s park in all of baseball and as usual, all pitchers playing there should be avoided.

Pitcher Rating:48.0

Chris Rusin : FD: $5,600 — DK: $4,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 59.0 — SIERA: 4.10 — K%: 15.0% — BB%: 7.1% — FB Rate: 27.6% — HR/FB: 12.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.2 — SIERA: 3.89 — K%: 15.5% — BB%: 5.6% — FB Rate: 26.6% — HR/FB: 18.2%

LA Angels of Anaheim Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.339 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 8)
Pitchers per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 19)

Analysis: Rusin has been a serviceable starter for the Rockies this season, but he’s not a great fantasy option, especially when he is pitching at home. He is a small underdog in a game that features a total of 10.5 runs. Avoid Rusin in all league formats.

Pitcher Rating:36.2

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels put up a ten-spot in Coors Field last night and they’ll look to keep it going tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against Chris Rusin, who has given up a .353+ wOBA to left and right-handed hitters. Basically, every hitter in the Angels’ lineup deserves consideration tonight.

Elite Plays:

Mike Trout : FD: $5,600 — DK: $6,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 253 — wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.259 — wRC+: 168
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.466 — ISO: 0.333 — wRC+: 211

Albert Pujols : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 238 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.195 — wRC+: 103
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.256 — wRC+: 113

Johnny Giavotella : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 75 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 101
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.257 — ISO: 0.045 — wRC+: 65

Secondary Plays:

Kole Calhoun : FD: $4,300 — DK: $5,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 210 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 114
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.292 — wRC+: 154

David Freese : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 189 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 137
Last 14 Days: PA: 43 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.029 — wRC+: 154

Chris Iannetta : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 185 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 154
Last 14 Days: PA: 34 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.130 — wRC+: 154

Colorado

The Rockies only had two runs in last night’s loss to the Angels, but they have a good chance to bounce back tonight against Matt Shoemaker. The Rockies are one of the best hitting teams against right-handed pitching and one of the best hitting teams at home. Left and right-handed hitters in the Rockies’ lineup are in play.

Elite Plays:

Nolan Arenado : FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,200

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 596 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.259 — wRC+: 116
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.362 — wRC+: 109

Charlie Blackmon : FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 747 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 115
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.180 — wRC+: 111

Secondary Plays:

Troy Tulowitzki : FD: $4,400 — DK: $5,300

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 499 — wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 122
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 152

Carlos Gonzalez : FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 416 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 99
Last 14 Days: PA: 43 — wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 76

DJ LeMahieu : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 647 — wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.100 — wRC+: 76
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.246 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 36

Ben Paulsen : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 180 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.199 — wRC+: 114
Last 14 Days: PA: 34 — wOBA: 0.261 — ISO: 0.033 — wRC+: 46

Philadelphia at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Philadelphia					LA Dodgers
			Adam Morgan					Clayton Kershaw
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (-383)					6.5
SP vs. Left	0.231	0.72	0.340	0.235	SP vs. Left	0.202	0.534	0.238	0.32
SP vs. Right	0.235	0.818	0.348	0.206	SP vs. Right	0.202	0.559	0.249	0.321
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs L		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Morgan : FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 12.2 — SIERA: 3.97 — K%: 21.6% — BB%: 7.8% — FB Rate: 48.6% — HR/FB: 17.6%

Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 16)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 25)
Pitchers per PA: 3.90 (Rank: 4)

Analysis: Morgan has pitched well in his first two major league starts, giving up a combined three earned runs while striking out 11 batters. We shouldn’t put any stock into his strikeout rate thus far though, as he only struck out 10.7% of the batters that he faced in 13 minor league starts this season. He should be avoided tonight against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers.

Pitcher Rating:38.5

Clayton Kershaw : FD: $12,500 — DK: $13,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 312.1 — SIERA: 2.17 — K%: 32.1% — BB%: 4.8% — FB Rate: 27.8% — HR/FB: 9.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 41.2 — SIERA: 2.09 — K%: 35.9% — BB%: 6.3% — FB Rate: 31.5% — HR/FB: 14.3%

Philadelphia Phillies Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 11)
Pitchers per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 26)

Analysis: I’ve been at this for quite a few years and while my memory isn’t great (I seem to forget everything my wife tells me), I can’t remember seeing a team that’s favored by this large of a margin. The Dodgers are up to -360 favorites tonight. Kershaw has had some wacky starts this season, but his indicators all look great. He should mow through the Phillies’ lineup tonight. A complete-game shutout is a very likely scenario for Kershaw.

Pitcher Rating:99.7

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies’ offense has been better recently, but they are facing Clayton Kershaw, who in my opinion, is still the best pitcher in baseball. Don’t get cute, avoid the Phillies tonight.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

LA Dodgers

As mentioned above, Adam Morgan had a very low strikeout rate in the minor leagues this season. The Dodgers should be able to knock him around a bit tonight, as they finally have all of their right-handed hitters healthy. All of the righties in this lineup are in play tonight.

Elite Plays:

Justin Turner : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 152 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 120
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.250 — wRC+: 139

Howie Kendrick : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 235 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 132
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 189

Secondary Plays:

Yasiel Puig : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 185 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 131
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.263 — ISO: 0.083 — wRC+: 67

Yasmani Grandal : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 127 — wOBA: 0.261 — ISO: 0.030 — wRC+: 67
Last 14 Days: PA: 39 — wOBA: 0.489 — ISO: 0.438 — wRC+: 222

Scott Van Slyke : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 171 — wOBA: 0.436 — ISO: 0.298 — wRC+: 185
Last 14 Days: PA: 20 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.267 — wRC+: 121