MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-09-04 13:00:50

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

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Miami at Atlanta – 12:10 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Miami					Atlanta
			Adam Conley					Williams Perez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ATL (-115)					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.333	0.961	0.426	23.3%	SP vs. Left	0.306	0.913	0.394	13.00%
SP vs. Right	0.272	0.807	0.339	18.4%	SP vs. Right	0.253	0.674	0.308	15.60%
Batter Splits			MIA vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Conley : FD: $5,400 — DK: $4,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 32.2 — SIERA: 4.10 — ERA: 4.96 — K%: 19.4% — BB%: 7.9% — HR/9: 1.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.2 — SIERA: 3.79 — ERA: 5.40 — K%: 21.7% — BB%: 7.8% — HR/9: 1.4

Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 22)
Pitches per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 21)

Analysis: Conley has had mediocre success in his first nine major league appearances, posting a 4.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.4% and a walk rate of 7.9%. He draws a favorable matchup today against the Braves, who are ranked 25th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. He is a small underdog here though and the Braves have a below-average strikeout rate on the season. Even in the small four game slate, Conley can be avoided in all league formats.

Pitcher Rating: 53.4

Williams Perez : FD: $5,800 — DK: $4,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 81.0 — SIERA: 5.14 — ERA: 5.56 — K%: 14.3% — BB%: 11.5% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.2 — SIERA: 6.10 — ERA: 8.44 — K%: 8.9% — BB%: 12.1% — HR/9: 1.4

Miami Marlins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 9)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 17.1% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Perez has been in terrible form recently, posting a 6.10 SIERA (8.44 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 8.9%. It’s never a good sign when a pitcher is walking more batters than he is striking out. The Marlins may have the lowest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, but that’s not enough to overcome the fact that Perez has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball over the last month of play.

Pitcher Rating:

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins may not have the highest team total, but they draw a very favorable matchup against Williams Perez, who has givne up a .394 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. With only four games in the early slate, all of the left-handed batters in this lineup are in play.

Elite Plays:

Dee Gordon : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 886 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.087 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.109 — wRC+: 125

Secondary Plays:

Christian Yelich : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 789 — wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.116 — wRC+: 112
Last 30 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.109 — wRC+: 112

Justin Bour : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 354 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.185 — wRC+: 115
Last 30 Days: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.184 — wRC+: 89

Ichiro Suzuki : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 588 — wOBA: 0.268 — ISO: 0.042 — wRC+: 67
Last 30 Days: PA: 96 — wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.105 — wRC+: 98

Atlanta

The Braves have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, but they draw a decent matchup today against rookie Adam Conley, who is only making his sixth career major league start. The sample size is still small, but Conley has given up a .339+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Freddie Freeman : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 307 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 111
Last 30 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.102 — wRC+: 108

Andrelton Simmons : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,200

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 193 — wOBA: 0.283 — ISO: 0.080 — wRC+: 77
Last 30 Days: PA: 67 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.088 — wRC+: 129

Adonis Garcia : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 28 — wOBA: 0.499 — ISO: 0.464 — wRC+: 224
Last 30 Days: PA: 100 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 102

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Cincinnati					Chicago Cubs
			Raisel Iglesias					Jason Hammel
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (-165)					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.293	0.740	0.330	13.6%	SP vs. Left	0.232	0.688	0.301	21.30%
SP vs. Right	0.160	0.585	0.258	37.1%	SP vs. Right	0.230	0.682	0.296	24.90%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits			CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Raisel Iglesias : FD: $8,200 — DK: $9,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 80.1 — SIERA: 3.23 — ERA: 3.92 — K%: 26.2% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 39.2 — SIERA: 2.54 — ERA: 2.27 — K%: 30.6% — BB%: 6.8% — HR/9: 0.9

Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.344 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 26.9% (Rank: 30)
Pitches per PA: 3.99 (Rank: 1)

Analysis: Iglesias is coming off of an incredible month of August, where he posted a 2.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.6%. Those are numbers that rival any pitcher outside of Clayton Kershaw. He is a large underdog today against the Cubs though, and the with wind blowing out to right field, this may not be the ideal time to jump on the bandwagon. Iglesias makes a nice tournament play today, but he is too risky for cash games.

Pitcher Rating: 72.8

Jason Hammel : FD: $8,000 — DK: $8,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 318.1 — SIERA: 3.43 — ERA: 3.45 — K%: 23.3% — BB%: 5.9% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.0 — SIERA: 3.39 — ERA: 4.88 — K%: 26.4% — BB%: 7.6% — HR/9: 2.3

Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 15)
Pitches per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 23)

Analysis: Hammel may have a 4.88 ERA over the last month of play, but his indicators look good. During that stretch, he has a 3.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.4%. He draws a mediocre matchup today against the Reds, who are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 11th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Hammel is the largest favorite in the early slate, but with the wind blowing out to right, I may lean to Sonny Gray as my top pitching option.

Pitcher Rating: 81.0

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds draw a tough matchup against Jason Hammel, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA over the last two seasons. The good news is that the wind is blowing out to right field at a helping rate of around 8 MPH. This game has the highest total in the early slate, which suggests that both offenses could fare well.

Elite Plays:

Joey Votto : FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 602 — wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 154
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.474 — ISO: 0.310 — wRC+: 205

Secondary Plays:

Todd Frazier : FD: $2,500 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 935 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.204 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 79

Jay Bruce : FD: $2,500 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 789 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 95
Last 30 Days: PA: 113 — wOBA: 0.202 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 19

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the highest team total in the early slate of games, as they are sizable favorites in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs. As mentioned above, the wind is blowing out to right field in Wrigley today. The Cubs also draw a nice matchup against Raisel Iglesias, who has given up a .330 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Elite Plays:

Kyle Schwarber : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 128 — wOBA: 0.438 — ISO: 0.333 — wRC+: 182
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.330 — wRC+: 137

Dexter Fowler : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 808 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 111
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.408 — ISO: 0.263 — wRC+: 162

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rizzo : FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 842 — wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.258 — wRC+: 149
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.273 — wRC+: 147

Kris Bryant : FD: $3,800 — DK: $5,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 393 — wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 134
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.438 — ISO: 0.299 — wRC+: 182

Chris Coghlan : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,300

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 694 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 127
Last 30 Days: PA: 76 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.246 — wRC+: 120

Miguel Montero : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 714 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.153 — wRC+: 103
Last 30 Days: PA: 65 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.281 — wRC+: 137

LA Angels at Oakland – 3:35 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
LA Angels					Oakland
			Andrew Heaney					Sonny Gray
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK (-146)					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.226	0.562	0.249	22.5%	SP vs. Left	0.206	0.593	0.268	21.70%
SP vs. Right	0.267	0.779	0.339	14.3%	SP vs. Right	0.227	0.587	0.263	19.60%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Heaney : FD: $7,100 — DK: $7,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 101.2 — SIERA: 4.12 — ERA: 3.90 — K%: 16.6% — BB%: 5.0% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.0 — SIERA: 4.79 — ERA: 4.78 — K%: 13.5% — BB%: 6.4% — HR/9: 0.8

Oakland Athletics Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 16.2% (Rank: 3)
Pitches per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 9)

Analysis: Heaney has not been in great form over the last month of play, posting a 4.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.5%. He draws a bad fantasy matchup today against the A’s, who have the second-lowest strikeout rate of any team against left-handed pitching this season. Given his bad form and his bad matchup, Heaney is an easy pitcher to avoid in both cash games and tournaments.

Pitcher Rating: 43.4

Sonny Gray : FD: $10,600 — DK: $11,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 400.2 — SIERA: 3.55 — ERA: 2.65 — K%: 20.7% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.0 — SIERA: 3.97 — ERA: 2.00 — K%: 18.4% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 1.3

LA Angels of Anaheim Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 13)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.279 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 12)
Pitches per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 20)

Analysis: Gray has pitched well in his recent starts, posting a 3.97 SIERA (2.00 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 18.4%. He draws a favorable matchup today against the Angels, who are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 13th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Gray also sees a small boost playing at home in the pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum. He is the safest pitching option in the four early games.

Pitcher Rating: 78.6

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels draw the worst matchup on the board today, as they square off against Sonny Gray, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 wOBA over the last two seasons. Mike Trout is worth a look in tournaments because he is matchup-proof, but the rest of the Angels can be avoided in the early slate of games.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Mike Trout : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 938 — wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.284 — wRC+: 169
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.124 — wRC+: 107

Oakland

The A’s offense has quietly been playing well recently, especially against left-handed pitching. They draw a favorable matchup today against the struggling Andrew Heaney, who has given up a .339 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. The A’s are a good source of value today, especially on DraftKings.

Elite Plays:

Brett Lawrie : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 199 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 111
Last 30 Days: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 115

Secondary Plays:

Danny Valencia : FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 239 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.140 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 86 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.244 — wRC+: 139

Mark Canha : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.221 — ISO: 0.019 — wRC+: 38
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 132

Josh Phegley : FD: $2,700 — DK: $2,900

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 134
Last 30 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 93

NY Yankees at Boston – 4:05 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
NY Yankees					Boston
			Masahiro Tanaka					Henry Owens
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-140)					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.228	0.652	0.284	23.6%	SP vs. Left	0.263	0.785	0.348	27.30%
SP vs. Right	0.228	0.682	0.296	25.3%	SP vs. Right	0.237	0.706	0.308	20.80%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka : FD: $9,300 — DK: $10,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 258.0 — SIERA: 3.00 — ERA: 3.17 — K%: 24.4% — BB%: 4.4% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.0 — SIERA: 3.62 — ERA: 3.18 — K%: 19.7% — BB%: 4.6% — HR/9: 1.3

Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 21)
Pitches per PA: 3.97 (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Tanaka didn’t have the best outing against the Braves in his last start, but he still picked up the win. He has been in relatively good form recently, posting a 3.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.7%. He may be a favorite against the Red Sox, but this is not an ideal matchup. On the season, Boston is ranked tenth in team wOBA and second in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. They also average the second-most pitches per plate appearance.

Pitcher Rating: 77.7

Henry Owens : FD: $5,400 — DK: $8,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 29.0 — SIERA: 4.25 — ERA: 4.03 — K%: 22.0% — BB%: 8.9% — HR/9: 1.2

New York Yankees Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.333 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 19)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 4)

Analysis: Owens has had some success in his first five major league starts, posting a 4.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.0%. He draws a difficult matchup today against the Yankees, who are ranked third in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. He has little fantasy appeal in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair.

Pitcher Rating: 47.5

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. While Henry Owens has been a reverse-splits pitcher in his first five starts, the sample size is still a bit too small to trust. Hitters from the left and right sides of the plate are in play today in Fenway Park.

Elite Plays:

Alex Rodriguez : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 146 — wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.330 — wRC+: 181
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.230 — ISO: 0.111 — wRC+: 39

Jacoby Ellsbury : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 325 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 118
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 100

Secondary Plays:

Chase Headley : FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 292 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.144 — wRC+: 111
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 139

Chris Young : FD: $3,000 — DK: $2,800

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 225 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.224 — wRC+: 130
Last 30 Days: PA: 43 — wOBA: 0.238 — ISO: 0.158 — wRC+: 45

Boston

The Red Sox draw a difficult matchup against Masahiro Tanaka, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA over the last two seasons. They do get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park, but they are secondary options at best today in the early slate of games.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

David Ortiz : FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 759 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.270 — wRC+: 144
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.352 — wRC+: 188

Mookie Betts : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 538 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 86 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.183 — wRC+: 117

Pablo Sandoval : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 749 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 91 — wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 81

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Tampa Bay					Baltimore
			Erasmo Ramirez					Kevin Gausman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-131)					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.220	0.647	0.290	18.7%	SP vs. Left	0.240	0.687	0.303	19.80%
SP vs. Right	0.279	0.812	0.355	17.0%	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.714	0.310	18.90%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Erasmo Ramirez : FD: $7,600 — DK: $5,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 202.2 — SIERA: 4.27 — ERA: 4.26 — K%: 18.0% — BB%: 8.2% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.0 — SIERA: 4.75 — ERA: 3.90 — K%: 12.6% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 1.5

Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.269 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 25.0% (Rank: 26)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Ramirez has been a serviceable value play this season, but his strikeout rate has been down recently. Over the last month of play, he has only struck out 12.6% of the batters that he has faced. While the Orioles do strikeout at a high rate, they also have the ninth-highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He is a large underdog on the road and can be avoided in all league formats.

Pitcher Rating: 45.3

Kevin Gausman : FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 193.1 — SIERA: 3.93 — ERA: 3.91 — K%: 19.4% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 39.1 — SIERA: 3.43 — ERA: 4.58 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 3.8% — HR/9: 1.6

Tampa Bay Rays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 10)
Pitches per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 11)

Analysis: Gausman has been my go-to value pitcher recently. He has pitched well over the last month of play, posting a 3.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.9%. He draws a terrific matchup tonight against the Rays, who are ranked 29th in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The price is nice and he is a sizable favorite at home. Gausman makes an excellent SP2 tonight on multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating: 68.5

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching this season. While they do see a small ballpark boost playing in Camden Yards, they draw a difficult matchup against Kevin Gausman, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Daniel Nava : FD: $2,400 — DK: $2,000

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 441 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.094 — wRC+: 105
Last 30 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.068 — wRC+: 113

John Jaso : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,700

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 446 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 128
Last 30 Days: PA: 79 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.138 — wRC+: 125

Baltimore

Erasmo Ramirez is a reverse-splits pitcher. Since the start of last season, he has given up a .355 wOBA to right-handed hitters, while holding lefties to a .290 wOBA. The right-handed bats of Manny Machado and Adam Jones are both elite plays tonight, while Chris Davis and Steve Clevenger are better secondary options.

Elite Plays:

Manny Machado : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 691 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.203 — wRC+: 136
Last 30 Days: PA: 129 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 107

Adam Jones : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,200

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 901 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.182 — wRC+: 103
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.232 — wRC+: 97

Secondary Plays:

Chris Davis : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 736 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.246 — wRC+: 115
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: 0.337 — wRC+: 166

Steve Clevenger : FD: $2,600 — DK: $2,700

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 133 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.130 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 37 — wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 141