MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-10-01 14:32:49

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

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Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Toronto					Baltimore
			R.A. Dickey					Kevin Gausman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (0)					0.0
SP vs. Left	0.227	0.677	0.299	14.6%	SP vs. Left	0.239	0.682	0.301	20.40%
SP vs. Right	0.245	0.741	0.323	18.5%	SP vs. Right	0.271	0.763	0.329	18.80%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey : FD: $7,900 — DK: $6,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 425.0 — SIERA: 4.43 — ERA: 3.85 — K%: 16.6% — BB%: 7.6% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.2 — SIERA: 4.51 — ERA: 2.78 — K%: 12.6% — BB%: 3.0% — HR/9: 0.8

Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.253 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 24)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 17)

Analysis: Dickey may have a 2.78 ERA over the last month of play, but he has a 4.51 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 12.6% during that stretch. He has not been a great fantasy option this season thanks to his limited upside. Even though the Orioles strikeout at a high rate, they also have the third-highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Dickey is a subpar pitching option tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 57.6

Kevin Gausman : FD: $6,500 — DK: $5,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 217.2 — SIERA: 3.98 — ERA: 4.01 — K%: 19.7% — BB%: 7.3% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.1 — SIERA: 4.18 — ERA: 4.81 — K%: 21.8% — BB%: 10.0% — HR/9: 1.5

Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.362 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)

Analysis: Gausman has been a viable value pitcher in DFS for the better part of two months. He comes into tonight’s start in relatively good form, posting a 4.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.8% over the last month of play. The issue tonight is his matchup. On the season, the Blue Jays are ranked first in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The risk outweighs the potential reward here.

Pitcher Rating: 54.2

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays haven’t technically won their division yet and they are still fighting with the Royals for the first seed in the American League playoffs. They have every reason to try to win tonight, which is great for their fantasy appeal. They draw a favorable matchup against Kevin Gausman, who has allowed a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,900 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 918 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.283 — wRC+: 149
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.441 — ISO: 0.341 — wRC+: 185

Jose Bautista : FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,000

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1051 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.265 — wRC+: 151
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.422 — ISO: 0.313 — wRC+: 171

Secondary Plays:

Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,900 — DK: $5,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1070 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 131
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.414 — ISO: 0.272 — wRC+: 166

Russell Martin : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 747 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 77 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.358 — wRC+: 135

Ben Revere : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 886 — wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.065 — wRC+: 93
Last 30 Days: PA: 124 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.086 — wRC+: 112

Baltimore

The Orioles may not have anything to play for tonight, but they do draw a favorable matchup against R.A. Dickey at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards. Gerardo Parra has a good (but limited) track record against Dickey. Chris Davis and Steve Pearce are also on my radar as tournament plays.

Elite Plays:

Gerardo Parra : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 913 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 102
Last 30 Days: PA: 93 — wOBA: 0.191 — ISO: 0.057 — wRC+: 10

Secondary Plays:

Chris Davis : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 795 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.270 — wRC+: 128
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.430 — ISO: 0.320 — wRC+: 176

Steve Pearce : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,100

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 447 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.224 — wRC+: 130
Last 30 Days: PA: 87 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.295 — wRC+: 104

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Boston					NY Yankees
			Wade Miley					Masahiro Tanaka
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-180)					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.703	0.311	19.0%	SP vs. Left	0.226	0.655	0.284	23.50%
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.750	0.328	19.8%	SP vs. Right	0.227	0.673	0.291	25.50%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Wade Miley : FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 390.0 — SIERA: 3.92 — ERA: 4.36 — K%: 19.6% — BB%: 8.1% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.0 — SIERA: 3.73 — ERA: 3.86 — K%: 20.1% — BB%: 4.9% — HR/9: 0.8

New York Yankees Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 22)
Pitches per PA: 3.91 (Rank: 3)

Analysis: Miley has been in surprisingly good form over the last month of play, posting a 3.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.1%. The Red Sox may not be in the playoff race, but they still have plenty to play for tonight. They are looking to sweep the rival Yankees in hopes that they can keep them out of the Wildcard. It would take a lot for that to happen, but it’s still very possible after the Red Sox have taken the first two games in New York. In terms of fantasy appeal, there is very little for Miley. The Yankees are ranked third in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating: 58.2

Masahiro Tanaka : FD: $9,,600 — DK: $10,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 285.1 — SIERA: 3.01 — ERA: 3.09 — K%: 24.5% — BB%: 4.2% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.1 — SIERA: 2.83 — ERA: 2.30 — K%: 25.2% — BB%: 1.9% — HR/9: 1.3

Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 12)
Pitches per PA: 3.96 (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Tanaka has been terrific over the last month of play, posting a 2.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.2% and a walk rate of only 1.9%. He appears to be rounding into form at the perfect time. While his matchup against the Red Sox is a difficult one, I expect him to pitch well in a very important game for the Yankees. Tanaka is affordable tonight and he is in play on both single and multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating: 90.1

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox would love to play the role of spoiler, but they draw a tough matchup tonight against Masahiro Tanaka, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA over the last two seasons. David Ortiz and Mookie Betts are both intriguing tournament plays, but the Red Sox bats should be avoided in cash games.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

David Ortiz : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,200

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 827 — wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.281 — wRC+: 145
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.439 — ISO: 0.420 — wRC+: 180

Mookie Betts : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 617 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 118
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 177

NY Yankees

Even though Wade Miley has pitched well recently, this is still a favorable matchup for the Yankees. Miley has allowed a .328 wOBA to hitters from the right side of the plate and the Yankees get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. The right-handed bats — plus Jacoby Ellsbury — are in play tonight.

Elite Plays:

Alex Rodriguez : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 179 — wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.290 — wRC+: 154
Last 30 Days: PA: 93 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.272 — wRC+: 127

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Beltran : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 296 — wOBA: 0.275 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 71
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 102

Jacoby Ellsbury : FD: $2,700 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 360 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.123 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.236 — ISO: 0.056 — wRC+: 43

Chase Headley : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,300

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 327 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.132 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 113 — wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: 0.099 — wRC+: 72

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
St. Louis					Pittsburgh
			Tyler Lyons					Charlie Morton
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (-108)					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.195	0.619	0.280	25.8%	SP vs. Left	0.263	0.758	0.335	18.60%
SP vs. Right	0.261	0.772	0.331	21.6%	SP vs. Right	0.243	0.671	0.298	17.70%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Lyons : FD: $5,100 — DK: $4,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 86.2 — SIERA: 3.53 — ERA: 4.15 — K%: 22.7% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 1.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 13.2 — SIERA: 3.15 — ERA: 3.95 — K%: 25.0% — BB%: 3.6% — HR/9: 3.3

Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 24)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 17)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 22)

Analysis: Lyons has had some success as a spot starter over the last two seasons, posting a 3.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.7%. The Cardinals haven’t officially locked up their division yet, but they can come close with a win over the Pirates tonight. On paper, this is a decent matchup, but I typically like to pay up for consistency at pitcher. It’s hard to expect a good outing from a young pitcher facing a team that is playing in a must win game at home.

Pitcher Rating: 65.7

Charlie Morton : FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 284.1 — SIERA: 3.80 — ERA: 4.08 — K%: 18.2% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.1 — SIERA: 4.05 — ERA: 5.81 — K%: 17.2% — BB%: 8.2% — HR/9: 1.4

St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 15)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Morton hasn’t been in the best of form over the last month of play, posting a 4.05 SIERA (5.81 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 17.2%. He is also playing for a team that pinch hits for a pitcher with a one-hitter through six innings after throwing only 56 pitches (see: J.A. Happ). The Pirates need to win this game to have any chance at winning the division, but I’m not sold on either starting pitcher in this one.

Pitcher Rating: 68.8

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are sizable underdogs tonight in a game that features a total of only 7.0 runs. Even though Charlie Morton has struggled against left-handed hitters, the low team total puts the Cardinals’ hitters as secondary plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Matt Carpenter : FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 934 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.168 — wRC+: 132
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.339 — wRC+: 175

Jason Heyward : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,200

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 907 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 130
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.121 — wRC+: 135

Pittsburgh

The Pirates may not have the highest team total on the board tonight, but they draw a decent matchup against Tyler Lyons, who has allowed a .331 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. We are to the point where we should target players on teams that still have something to play for and the Pirates can get one game closer to the Cardinals with a win tonight.

Elite Plays:

Andrew McCutchen : FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 251 — wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 162
Last 30 Days: PA: 122 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.104 — wRC+: 113

Josh Harrison : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 228 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.114 — wRC+: 125
Last 30 Days: PA: 85 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.076 — wRC+: 107

Secondary Plays:

Starling Marte : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 223 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 114
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 119

Francisco Cervelli : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,300

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 158 — wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 135
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.013 — wRC+: 102

Oakland at LA Angels – 7:05 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Oakland					LA Angels
			Barry Zito					Garrett Richards
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-248)					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.667	3.334	1.376	0.0%	SP vs. Left	0.209	0.578	0.259	23.50%
SP vs. Right	0.429	1.071	0.463	0.0%	SP vs. Right	0.230	0.640	0.286	20.00%
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Barry Zito : FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 3.0 — SIERA: 8.06 — ERA: 18.00 — K%: 0.0% — BB%: 10.5% — HR/9: 6.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 3.0 — SIERA: 8.06 — ERA: 18.00 — K%: 0.0% — BB%: 10.5% — HR/9: 6.0

LA Angels of Anaheim Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 6)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 9)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 21)

Analysis: Zito did not fare well in his first start of the season. He is a pitcher that is well past his prime on a team that has nothing to play for. He has very little upside and he should be avoided against the Angels, who are still fighting for their playoff lives.

Pitcher Rating: 8.5

Garrett Richards : FD: $8,700 — DK: $9,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 364.0 — SIERA: 3.62 — ERA: 3.21 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 8.1% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 41.1 — SIERA: 3.91 — ERA: 3.48 — K%: 24.6% — BB%: 11.7% — HR/9: 0.9

Oakland Athletics Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 18.2% (Rank: 4)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.333 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Richards has been in good form recently, posting a 3.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.6%. This may not be the best matchup in terms of potential strikeouts, but the A’s are ranked 22nd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Richards is a large favorite tonight at home in what is a very important game for the Angels. He is in play on both single and multi-pitcher sites tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 77.9

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s draw a terrible matchup against Garrett Richards, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA over the last two seasons. The A’s should be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

LA Angels

The Angels draw one of the most favorable matchups on the board tonight. Vegas sees this as well, as they have installed the Angels with one of the highest team totals. The right-handed bats have the edge in this matchup, as Barry Zito is a southpaw. Load up on Angels in both cash games and tournaments tonight.

Elite Plays:

Mike Trout : FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 334 — wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: 0.262 — wRC+: 172
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.436 — ISO: 0.323 — wRC+: 187

Erick Aybar : FD: $2,300 — DK: $2,900

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 330 — wOBA: 0.271 — ISO: 0.069 — wRC+: 74
Last 30 Days: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.245 — ISO: 0.067 — wRC+: 55

Secondary Plays:

Albert Pujols : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 320 — wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 97
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.243 — ISO: 0.120 — wRC+: 54

C.J. Cron : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 214 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 103
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.250 — wRC+: 118

David Freese : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 223 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 130
Last 30 Days: PA: 87 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.195 — wRC+: 152

Detroit at Texas – 7:05 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Detroit					Texas
			Matt Boyd					Yovani Gallardo
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX (-185)					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.339	1.153	0.477	11.8%	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.709	0.314	16.30%
SP vs. Right	0.277	0.840	0.359	19.5%	SP vs. Right	0.264	0.711	0.314	16.70%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits			TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Boyd : FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 54.2 — SIERA: 4.78 — ERA: 6.91 — K%: 17.3% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 2.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 18.0 — SIERA: 4.81 — ERA: 6.50 — K%: 20.6% — BB%: 12.3% — HR/9: 1.5

Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 20)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.366 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 6)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Boyd has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. His strikeout rate has improved recently, but he walks too many batters and he gives up a high wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate. He should be avoided tonight against the Rangers, who have the highest team wOBA over the last two weeks of play.

Pitcher Rating: 40.2

Yovani Gallardo : FD: $8,100 — DK: $5,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 371.1 — SIERA: 4.19 — ERA: 3.47 — K%: 16.5% — BB%: 7.6% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.1 — SIERA: 4.50 — ERA: 5.18 — K%: 15.2% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 1.5

Detroit Tigers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 16)
Pitches per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 12)

Analysis: Gallardo has not been in great form recently, posting a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.2%. He is a better real-life pitcher than he is in DFS because very few of his outs come by the way of the strikeout. I expect him to get plenty of run support tonight, but he has limited upside against a potent Tigers’ lineup.

Pitcher Rating: 59.6

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers’ offense has struggled over the last few weeks, but they draw a nice matchup tonight against Yovani Gallardo, who has allowed a .314 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The Tigers also see a small ballpark boost tonight playing in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.

Elite Plays:

Miguel Cabrera : FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 907 — wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 154
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.274 — ISO: 0.034 — wRC+: 69

Secondary Plays:

J.D. Martinez : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 853 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.233 — wRC+: 140
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 95

Anthony Gose : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,100

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 653 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.103 — wRC+: 93
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.101 — wRC+: 106

Texas

The Rangers draw a terrific matchup tonight against Matt Boyd, who has allowed a .359+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. The Rangers also have plenty to play for, as they are clinging on to a two-game lead over the Angels in the American League West. Load up on Rangers in both cash games and tournaments.

Elite Plays:

Adrian Beltre : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 360 — wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.209 — wRC+: 150
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.185 — wRC+: 135

Delino Deshields : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 160 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 101
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.275 — ISO: 0.095 — wRC+: 65

Secondary Plays:

Shin-Soo Choo : FD: $3,800 — DK: $5,100

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 392 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 88
Last 30 Days: PA: 130 — wOBA: 0.462 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 194

Prince Fielder : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 329 — wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 94
Last 30 Days: PA: 127 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.165 — wRC+: 112

Mitch Moreland : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,500

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 188 — wOBA: 0.277 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 66
Last 30 Days: PA: 95 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.259 — wRC+: 122

Mike Napoli : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 309 — wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 156
Last 30 Days: PA: 48 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 139