MLB Odds, Betting Picks, and Predictions for Tuesday — July 27


MLB betting analyst Sloan Piva returns to place a bet on every single game today. Follow along as Piva peruses odds and makes his betting picks and predictions for the loaded 15-game slate on Tuesday, July 27.

I can’t even begin to tell you how much fun I have doing betting previews for Major League Baseball games. What a thrill! Every single day that I open my laptop and start writing an article, I am advancing the realization of a lifelong dream.

As Bruno Mars would say, I am #blessed. So, I’m happy to give our readers a little extra here and there for the standard price of admission. Hell, if you’ve been reading my Bets of the Day all season, it’s the least I can do to pay you back (even though you’re probably already pretty well paid, given that my Bets of the Day record on the year is 30-18).

In the spirit of giving back to our audience, I’m going to cover my three favorite Bets of the Day for Tuesday’s slate like I always do—but I’m also going to list my favorite bets for each of the rest of the day’s games in quick-hitting fashion. I’ll do this in lieu of my Parlay of the Day, which I will feature on most Tuesdays, Fridays, and Sundays moving forward throughout the season.

Let’s get right to it! Three Bets of the Day write-ups and 12 quick-hitters, which should help you pick your own Parlay of the Day buffet-style. I hope this brings you a tremendous windfall of cash, and you go on to tell your friends about some crazy guy named Sloan who helped you conquer the sportsbooks!

All betting odds are from BetMGM and PointsBet. All stats are from and Baseball Reference.

MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tuesday

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

Pitching Matchup: Erick Fedde vs. Matt Moore

I started the season staying the Hell away from over/under totals, but I’ve been hitting them heavy with relative success as of late. And I want to cover a big-market game like Nats-Phillies, but I want nothing to do with picking a winner with this pitching matchup. So, let’s bet the OVER, baby!

Erick Fedde and Matt Moore are not reliable big-league starting pitchers. Fedde has allowed five or more runs on five different occasions, including three of his last five starts. Moore has only started eight games, and has only seen the sixth inning one time. That occasion happened to be his last time out against the Braves, who shelled him for six runs on six hits (including two homers).

Fedde’s ERA/WHIP on the season: 5.79/1.595. Moore’s ERA/WHIP to date: 4.88/1.389. Philly won Monday’s contest 6-5, a robust total score. And looking at the past 15 days, the Nats have scored 63 runs in the past 11 games, while Philly has scored 49 in the past 12. That averages out to 5.72-4.08. With two struggling pitchers on the mound, and both offenses in high gear, I’m all about the OVER here. If I fail on this one, I might swear off over/unders for the rest of the year.

Pick: OVER 9.5 Runs

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Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles

Pitching Matchup: Sandy Alcantara vs. Spenser Watkins

Alcantara has been one of the more tough-luck starting pitchers in the majors this season, with a lowly 5-9 record despite a fantastic 3.23 ERA and 1.153 WHIP. The 25-year old Dominican has faced some behemoths across his 20 starts, and yet he’s only eclipsed three earned runs four times. He’s the real deal, he’s a keeper on my fantasy team, and he’s going to obliterate the Orioles today.

On the other side, Baltimore rookie Spenser Watkins has been no slouch. Through three starts (and four total appearances), the 28-year old is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.163 WHIP. But he’s barely even gotten his feet wet—he’s just 16.1 innings into his Major League career.

I’m rolling with the superior pitcher in Alcantara. His offense may be underwhelming—Miami has scored 16 total runs in the past 10 games its ace has started—but it should be able to get something going at hitter-friendly Camden Yards.

Alcantara has tussled with the Dodgers, Nationals, Braves, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Cardinals his last six times out, and only allowed 12 earned runs across 34.2 innings in the process. Unbelievably, he’s 1-4 in that span. Look out, Baltimore—you’re about to feel the wrath of Hurricane Sandy.

Pick: Marlins -120

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Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs. Brad Keller

I’m a stubborn guy. Maybe it’s because I’m a Capricorn, or maybe it’s just because I was raised by stubborn people. So, when I bet a favorite one night and they lose by a run, sometimes I double-down like a hard-headed son of a B. However, I can always back up my recommendations with sound logic and statistical support.

My sound logic here: Kansas City sucks, and slugging Royals outfielder Jorge Soler is not about to go on a Sammy Sosa-like tear out of the friggin’ blue. Not if White Sox manager Tony La Russa and young hurler Dylan Cease have anything to say about it, at least.

Cease has encountered some turbulence over the past month and a half, but most of his trouble came at the hands of Houston and Minnesota. That’s the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 12 scoring offense in Major League Baseball. Kansas City, meanwhile, ranks 23rd in runs with 412. The White Sox rank fourth in the majors with 497.

Let’s not overthink this one. The South-Siders bounce back from the series-opening upset, and Eloy Jimenez collects his first hit since being activated from the IL (torn pectoral).

Pick: White Sox -1.5 (+100)

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More MLB Bets for Tuesday, July 27


Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates (Brett Anderson vs. Tyler Anderson) – MIL -135
It’s a glitch in the Matrix! In the battle of Mr. Andersons, give me the better of the two with the better team: Brett and the Brewers rejoice.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Indians (Adam Wainwright vs. Cal Quantrill) – STL -110
Don’t look now, but the Cards have 18 runs in their past three games, and 38 runs in their past seven. I’ll take the veteran Wainwright over Cal Quantrill, which sounds like a villainous tech company in a superhero flick.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (Robbie Ray vs. Garrett Richards) – TOR -130
Back to my stubbornness… but this is a win-win for me (side note: If I bet against the Sox all season, and they win out, do I get a ring?). Seriously, though—Ray has been incredible this season, and the Jays have enough firepower to outscore the scorching (but likely tired) Sox at Fenway.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (Charlie Morton vs. TBD) – ATL
I don’t see a probable starter for the Mets listed, and I don’t see odds for this game. But I like what I’ve seen out of the veteran Morton lately, in a big-time 180-degrees turnaround from his awful start to the season. Plus, the Braves are a better offense than their record suggests. Give me Atlanta up to -140.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (Jordan Montgomery vs. Shane McClanahan) – NYY +120
I like McClanahan a lot, but I don’t like him against Jordan Montgomery and a desperate Yankees lineup. Last time Montie faced the Rays on June 2, he went 6.1 innings and allowed just one earned run while striking out six. The rookie McClanahan didn’t clear the fourth frame that day, serving up four earned runs on five hits and two walks.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (Vladimir Gutierrez vs. Adbert Alzolay) – CIN +125
I’m surprised the early moneyline yields such good value for Cincy. Sure, Nick Castellanos is out with a microfracture in his wrist, but the Reds still rake and Alzolay has been in a tailspin. The Cubs, meanwhile, might unload every star before the end of the week. Reds for the green.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers (Taylor Widener vs. Dane DunningUNDER 8.5 (-115)
Here’s the downside to covering every single game: we must cover matchups like Dbacks-Rangers. This game sucks—if you’re betting it, bet on the offenses forgetting to show up.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (Tyler Alexander vs. Kenta Maeda) – MIN -1.5 (-110)
Max Kepler walked-off the Tigers Monday night, which could prove to be a turning point in Minnesota’s season. Maeda—who hilariously scored the winning run Monday—has already turned the corner after a disastrous start to the season. I like the Twins to rough up the Tigers.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels (Austin Gomber vs. Jose Suarez) – LAA -1.5 (+135)
Gomber has been awesome this season, but the Angels at home are tough for a road loser like Colorado to handle. The juice is worth the squeeze on the run line here.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (Julio Urias vs. Logan Webb) – UNDER 4.5 First 5 Innings (-120)
These clubs always seem to battle, and I don’t see either of these two pitchers—both of whom have ERAs under 3.65—suddenly giving up three runs in five innings. Smash the UNDER in the first five, an underrated play in a rivalry game.

Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres (James Kaprielian vs. Chris Paddack) – OAK +120
The Athletics have low-key been one of the better offenses in baseball this year, and Kaprielian is 5-3 with a 2.65 ERA (despite the fact you’ve probably never heard of him). Paddack stinks—the A’s shouldn’t even be underdogs here just because they are the away team.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Lance McCullers vs. Chris Flexen) – UNDER 8 (-105)
It may feel weird to bet the UNDER in an Astros game, but this could shape up to be a pitcher’s duel in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. McCullers and Flexen each have ERAs under 3.35, and each have win-loss records five games above .500. I think Houston wins a close, low-scoring affair.

Phew. That took a while. Hope you all enjoyed, and fingers crossed you all win big tonight!

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About the Author

Sloan Piva (SloanPiva)

Sloan Piva is a veteran of the sports journalism industry, and a freelance sports betting analyst. He received his master’s degree in Professional Writing from the University of Massachusetts, and currently resides in East Bay, Rhode Island with his wife and daughter. He covers the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAA, and PGA, as well as anything related to fantasy sports and sports betting. Shoot him an email anytime at!