NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 6th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-04-07 01:01:08

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		209.0					Vegas Total		209.0
			Vegas Spread		12.0					Vegas Spread		-12.0
			Implied Team Total		98.5					Implied Team Total		110.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.7					Pace Projection +/-		1.0
Projected Starters	Isaiah Taylor	Damion Lee	Taurean Prince	John Collins	Dewayne Dedmon		Projected Starters	Tomas Satoransky	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	11	15	15	4	6		DvP	27	25	30	26	29
DRPM Rat.	7	14	2	20	9		DRPM Rat.	9	10	27	19	13

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

DeAndre Bembry (Probable), Antonius Cleveland (Probable), Dewayne Dedmon (Probable), Taurean Prince (Questionable)

Hello Grinders, Happy Friday. Amazingly, this is the last Friday of the 2017-18 NBA regular season. We’ve reached a point where it’s mass chaos with injuries. My recommendation would be to monitor the news heavily if you’re playing NBA DFS today, and to also monitor the standings since some teams no longer have anything to play for. I also think it’s worth mentioning that coaches may be using this time to evaluate their young talent, so players not even on our radar may suddenly get heavy minutes. Let’s dive in!

The Hawks got destroyed by the Heat on Wednesday, 115-86. Because it was a blowout and because the Hawks had just called up four guys from the G-League, they played 13 players with nobody seeing more than John Collins’ 27 minutes. The Wizards will be without John Wall but will still be motivated to play hard as they could potentially drop to the 8th seed with a loss. It’s hard to tell if the Hawks will use a similar large pool of players in Friday’s game, so I’m exercising some caution here (this is the only exercise I’ve done this week).

I don’t see any elite plays here, and the only secondary play I feel comfortable with is John Collins, who has been playing well lately. Damion Lee and Isaiah Taylor are also fine secondary plays, but I don’t see myself playing them much with their prices. I do have interest in Tyler Dorsey and if Taurean Prince gets downgraded on Friday from questionable to doubtful/out, Dorsey could see an expanded role. He saw 38 minutes two games ago when the Hawks benched Prince after 10 minutes, and Dorsey started for Prince in the second half of that game.

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.5 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -4.9 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – John Collins, Tyler Dorsey (would upgrade to elite if Taurean Prince is ruled out), Damion Lee, Isaiah Taylor

Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries

John Wall (Doubtful)

John Wall played 38 minutes on Thursday and this is the backend of a back-to-back for the Wizards. The expectation is that Wall will sit out to rest and I don’t think the Wizards would need him against the Hawks, but the team left it open that he could play. If he’s out, I’d expect Tomas Satoransky to rejoin the starting lineup.

As of my writing, Vegas has the Wizards as 12 point favorites, so there is genuine concern of a blowout here. I suppose if Wall is out, maybe the Hawks can somehow keep this game close, but I’m hesitant to label any of the Wizards as elite plays in the event this game gets out of hand early and the Wizards scale back the minutes of their starters to give them some rest on this backend game. Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris and even Marcin Gortat against a weak Hawks interior all make for fine tournament plays, but I wouldn’t trust them in cash with this spread. Satoransky is also a secondary option here if Wall is indeed out.

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.8 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.7 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.9 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (GPP), Marcin Gortat (GPP), Markieff Morris (GPP), Otto Porter (GPP), Tomas Satoransky (GPP)

Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks							Detroit Pistons
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.1					Pace Projection +/-		-2.0
Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Aaron Harrison	Harrison Barnes	Dorian Finney-Smith	Dwight Powell		Projected Starters	Reggie Jackson	Reggie Bullock	Stanley Johnson	Anthony Tolliver	Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	14	9	23	17	8		DvP	22	12	7	21	11
DRPM Rat.	18	21	6	23	11		DRPM Rat.	28	N/A	28	6	8

Dallas Mavericks

Update 142pm EST – Dennis Smith Jr., Dwight Powell and Harrison Barnes are expected to play and start today. I’m listing Dennis Smith Jr. and Harrison Barnes as secondary plays, but the return of Powell takes me off Johnathan Motley. I don’t really trust anyone on the Mavs though.

Notable Injuries

J.J. Barea (Out for season), Salah Mejri (Questionable), Dirk Nowitzki (Out for season), Dwight Powell (Questionable), Dennis Smith Jr. (Questionable)

Wow, this once proud franchise is such a hot mess now. Dirk Nowitzki is done for the season, and so is J.J. Barea. Dwight Powell and Salah Mejri are both questionable, and with Nerlens Noel suspended for the rest of the season, it could be down to Johnathan Motley and Maxi Kleber holding down the fort. Motley played 41 minutes last game and would make for an elite punt play if both Powell and Mejri are out.

Dennis Smith Jr. is questionable but I don’t trust him as I don’t see any reason for the Mavericks to push him. They still have Aaron Harrison, Kyle Collinsworth and Yogi Ferrell to help soak up guard minutes. If DSJ is ruled out, I don’t hate the idea of using Collinsworth or Harrison as a punt play. Both saw 35+ minutes in their last game.

I’m expecting Harrison Barnes back after resting their last game, and I suppose it’s possible he plays his normal minutes and leads this team in scoring and usage. For that possibility alone, I’m calling him a secondary play. But overall this Mavs team isn’t very exciting despite them being short-handed because there’s still a variety of ways they can go that make it hard to pinpoint where the production will come from.

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.3 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 16)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes, Dennis Smith Jr.

Detroit Pistons

Update 1:44pm EST – Reggie Bullock is out for the year and Luke Kennard will move into the starting lineup. I’m moving Kennard to an elite play, while this is also a slight bump up for Andre Drummond. I just wish I had more clarity on whether Drummond will see his normal minutes because this is a great matchup.

Notable Injuries

Blake Griffin (Out)

The Pistons were officially eliminated from the playoffs on Wednesday, so I plan to be very cautious with my Pistons exposure. With nothing left to play for, I wonder if they scale back playing time for injury-prone Reggie Jackson and veteran Anthony Tolliver (I was going to call him old-man Tolliver but then I Googled his age, only to find out I’m actually older than him so I went with “veteran”). Watch for news to see if Stan Van Gundy tips his hand on how he plays out these final games, but I’m planning to limit my exposure to guys like Ish Smith and Luke Kennard. You could certainly consider Andre Drummond given this is a dream matchup against a thin Dallas backcourt, but I would reserve it for tournaments given there’s nothing left to play for besides pride and we aren’t getting a discount on his salary.

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 103.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 16)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Luke Kennard

Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (GPP), Ish Smith

Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		223.0					Vegas Total		223.0
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		109.8					Implied Team Total		113.3
			Pace Projection +/-		2.4					Pace Projection +/-		0.4
Projected Starters	Rodney Hood	Cedi Osman	LeBron James	Jeff Green	Kevin Love		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Amir Johnson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	13	18	19	9	16		DvP	23	20	29	18	20
DRPM Rat.	1	26	1	25	4		DRPM Rat.	29	18	25	16	19

Cleveland Cavaliers

Update 1:40pm EST – George Hill has been ruled OUT while Jose Calderon remains questionable.

Notable Injuries

Jose Calderon (Questionable), George Hill (Questionable)

This will be a fascinating game to monitor, because the Cavs are a half-game up on the 76ers for the #3 seed in the East, so this game could potentially decide their seeding. I would think both teams are going to want to play hard for the #3 spot.

The Cavs are playing the backend of a back-to-back and didn’t have Jose Calderon or George Hill on Thursday. Dr. Cedi Osman joined the starting lineup but only played 15 minutes, while it was J.R. Smith (24 minutes), Jordan Clarkson (22 minutes) and Kyle Korver (22 minutes) filling the rest of the minutes. It was also announced Jeff Green will remain in the starting lineup for the remainder of the season and he responded with 21 real life points, but he’s not someone I’m actively targeting because of his lack of peripheral stats.

Honestly, it’s just LeBron James and Kevin Love for me. Both are elite plays, and while I respect this 76ers defense, a motivated James and Love are always worthy of consideration.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.5 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.0 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – None

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out), Joel Embiid (Out), Dario Saric (Questionable)

With Joel Embiid and Dario Saric out, we’ve seen Ben Simmons, Robert Covington, Ersan Ilyasova and J.J. Redick step up in massive ways. Saric has been listed as questionable so if he ends up playing, everyone will take a bit of a hit. If he’s out once again, all four players deserve consideration.

I’ve been rostering Ben Simmons during these past few games, but he’s only scored 35 and 40.5 DraftKings points over his last two, and that’s a major disappointment considering his price. The minutes have been there though, and the main “problem” is that the guys around him have been stepping up too. Redick has seen a massive usage increase, and even the bench of Richaun Holmes and Marco Belinelli have been stellar.

I’m going to assume Dario Saric is out again, and I’m going to list Ben Simmons as elite once more because the opportunity to dominate the usage on this team is there. It’s what CourtIQ tells us and what the numbers clearly show. But in terms of how I view him against the other studs like LeBron and Anthony Davis, Simmons is a clear notch below them because of this fear that the usage funnels away to Ilyasova, Redick or Covington.

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.9 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Robert Covington, Ersan Ilyasova (if Dario Saric is out), Ben Simmons

Secondary Plays – Marco Belinelli, J.J. Redick

Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total		211.5					Vegas Total		211.5
			Vegas Spread		-5.5					Vegas Spread		5.5
			Implied Team Total		108.5					Implied Team Total		103.0
			Pace Projection +/-		0.8					Pace Projection +/-		1.0
Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard		Projected Starters	D.J. Augustin	Wes Iwundu	Mario Hezonja	Aaron Gordon	Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	30	26	18	25	22		DvP	18	16	26	16	14
DRPM Rat.	22	16	29	21	9		DRPM Rat.	20	13	12	13	9

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

Dwayne Bacon (Out), Treveon Graham (Out)

The Hornets will be without Bacon (mmm, bacon…) and Graham (mmm, graham crackers…), and have been officially eliminated from the playoffs. I have no idea why, especially with Nicolas Batum dealing with an Achilles injury, but the starters continue to see decent minutes. In their last game, the starters all saw between 26-32 minutes, which was enough for Dwight Howard to post a 23 point, 17 rebounds double-double. Kemba Walker also played 31 minutes, while Marvin Williams played 28 minutes and posted a respectable 18-8-4 line. I’m not going to call any of the starters elite plays because I have no idea whether they continue to see 26-32 minutes the rest of the season, but if they do I think Dwight Howard makes for an interesting play against a poor Magic defense. His price tag of $9,200 on DraftKings is kind of crazy so I can’t imagine he will be very highly owned. I’m not interested in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist with Jeremy Lamb back and Nicolas Batum playing though his Achilles injury.

Malik Monk and Guillermo Hernangomez are my main targets on the Hornets, and it’s mainly for salary relief. Monk has seen his role increase down the stretch with the Hornets eliminated, and Hernangomez is getting more playing time with Cody Zeller out. Monk has now scored at least 16 real life points in three straight games despite only playing 24 minutes in all three. I’m going to call him an elite option given his salary, as I think he’s one of the better punt options on this slate.

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 107.5 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (6 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.0 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – Malik Monk

Secondary Plays – Guillermo Hernangomez, Dwight Howard (GPP), Kemba Walker (GPP)

Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

Jonathan Isaac (Out), Jonathon Simmons (Out)

With Jonathan Isaac and Jonathon Simmons out, we should see Mario Hezonja start once again. Hezonja played 35 minutes in their last game and finished with 40.6 FanDuel points. It’s worth pointing out that Nikola Vucevic sat last game, so there was more usage to go around. I haven’t seen any word on whether he will rest again but I have to think he will play. However, the Magic are 5th in the lottery and just 0.5 game up on the Kings for the 6th spot, so they have no incentive to win. This is probably why Aaron Gordon wasn’t even on the court to close their last game. I’m going to call Aaron Gordon a secondary play because he could still post respectable fantasy scores in limited time, but be careful here because the Magic clearly are trying to tank.

Bismack Biyombo morphed in Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with Vucevic out, and he’d once again make a fine punt play if Vuc sat. So would Khem Birch, who busted out again and has now scored back-to-back 31+ DraftKings point games. If Vuc is in, I wouldn’t play Biyombo and my interest in Birch would be minimal unless I heard something suggesting he’ll get an extended look. I’m not going to list any of these three in the elite/secondary plays below yet without knowing Vuc’s status.

I’ll point out that Shelvin Mack continues to impress in the second unit with Simmons and Isaac out. He’s a viable punt option.

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 103.8 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon (GPP), Mario Hezonja, Shelvin Mack

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Chicago Bulls							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		201.0					Vegas Total		201.0
			Vegas Spread		10.0					Vegas Spread		-10.0
			Implied Team Total		95.5					Implied Team Total		105.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.3					Pace Projection +/-		0.7
Projected Starters	Cameron Payne	Justin Holiday	David Nwaba	Lauri Markkanen	Cristiano Felicio		Projected Starters	Terry Rozier	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	2	5	9	2	3		DvP	21	28	21	24	25
DRPM Rat.	4	2	4	1	1		DRPM Rat.	10	4	20	26	30

Chicago Bulls

Update 1:38pm EST – Noah Vonleh is OUT.

Notable Injuries

Noah Vonleh (Questionable), Paul Zipser (Out)

Wow, the Bulls are just an ugly team to try and predict. It sounds like Lauri Markkanen will play on Friday but could be held out on Saturday, so keep an eye out for that. Markkanen is the main big man I would look at here, but the Bulls are in tank mode so his minutes aren’t guaranteed. Noah Vonleh is questionable so I suppose if he’s out, Markkanen may see a few more minutes.

Honestly, there’s just not a lot I love here against a stout Celtics defense. David Nwaba is interesting if he gets enough minutes, and Sean Kilpatrick is viable as a punt option, but he’s extremely scoring dependent. The Bulls are one of the teams on this slate I just don’t want too much exposure to.

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 103.0 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.5 (16 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -7.5 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Sean Kilpatrick, Lauri Markkanen, David Nwaba

Boston Celtics

Update 4pm EST – In a bit of a surprise move, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford are OUT for rest, while Shane Larkin is available. I’m moving Terry Rozier to an elite play and adding Marcus Morris and Jaylen Brown as secondary plays.

I’ve also just added Greg Monroe as a GPP secondary play as he should split minutes with Aron Baynes at center.

Notable Injuries

Kyrie Irving (Out for season)

Vegas has the Celtics as 10 point favorites and they are coming off a tough loss against the Raptors that would’ve helped them make a push towards the #1 seed in the East. Now they are three games back of the Raptors with four games to go, so perhaps the Celtics take it easy on themselves against this tanking Bulls team knowing it’s now a longshot to earn the top spot.

With Terry Rozier back, I don’t have a lot of interest in these Celtics. On paper the Celtics have an easy matchup as the Bulls rank 21st or worst in DvP for every position. But the prices for these Celtics players are also higher than what I’d want to pay. Terry Rozier and Al Horford would be my main targets, but I feel like they are more GPP options given the blowout risks.

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.2 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.5 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Terry Rozier

Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris, Greg Monroe (GPP)

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