NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 8th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Happy Friday everyone! I don’t know about you, but I am feeling really good about tonight’s slate. There are eight games on the schedule, which is basically the sweet spot between not having enough options at each position and having too many. As always, remember to watch the injury news throughout the day. The entire slate can change with one or two injuries, so we always have to be on our toes and ready to adjust on the fly. If you want to get my thoughts on the slate later in the day, I do a Grind Down update video in the Court Report blog as well as the Premium Chat from 5:30-6:00 PM ET. Both features are available for Premium members.
Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.0 |  | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.8 | Implied Team Total | 110.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Arron Afflalo | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 29 | 29 | 16 | 28 | 12 | DvP | 28 | 5 | 15 | 29 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 13 | 30 | 28 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 3 | 29 | 26 | 25 | |
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have lost two games in a row, which isn’t too surprising given the fact that they are without their best offensive and defensive player (hint: it’s the same player). Tonight they head to Orlando for a game that we should be able to stack in daily fantasy basketball. The Magic are an excellent matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked sixth in pace of play and 28th in points allowed per game. Even without Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets have the fourth highest implied total on the board at 108.8 points.
Jamal Murray has played well over the last couple of weeks. His minutes and fantasy production have both been trending up. However, Emmanuel Mudiay is always hot on his tail, as evidenced by the game on Wednesday night where Mudiay played five more minutes than Murray. With eight games on the schedule, I see both Nuggets’ point guards as risky cash game targets, but both are viable in tournaments. Gary Harris has scored at least 34 fantasy points in four straight games and is basically playing 35-40 minutes every night. He offers a high floor and a high ceiling, which puts him on my radar for cash games and tournaments.
Will Barton drew the start at small forward on Wednesday, but that could have been for matchup purposes. Regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench tonight, he should see 33-35 minutes against a Magic defense that is ranked 27th and 26th in efficiency against shooting guards and small forwards this season. If comparing the two, I prefer Harris in cash games and Barton in tournaments. Wilson Chandler can be avoided for now, as he has only played 24 and 27 minutes in his two games back from injury. Kenneth Faried, Trey Lyles, and Mason Plumlee are both intriguing GPP targets tonight, but it’s nearly impossible to predict this Nuggets’ frontcourt rotation. They seem to ride the hot hand more often than not, which gives all three players a low floor for cash games.
Notable Injuries
Nikola Jokic (Out)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.1 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.7 (3 of 16)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.8 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $6,000 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 22.8 | 4.9 | 27.1 | 1.6 | 0.84 | 22.7% | 28 | 29 | 20 |
| Gary Harris | $6,900 | $6,400 | $12,800 | 28.2 | 10.1 | 33.5 | 5.1 | 0.84 | 17.4% | 27 | 29 | 13 |
| Will Barton | $7,200 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 29.2 | 10.4 | 30.2 | 4.7 | 0.97 | 20.6% | 26 | 16 | 30 |
| Wilson Chandler | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 19.0 | -3.7 | 29.8 | -4.0 | 0.64 | 13.3% | 15 | 28 | 28 |
| Kenneth Faried | $5,600 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 15.0 | 10.2 | 0.94 | 15.4% | 24 | 12 | 5 |
| Mason Plumlee | $5,800 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 17.3 | 2.6 | 17.8 | 5.5 | 0.97 | 15.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Trey Lyles | $4,800 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 12.3 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 11.4 | 1.00 | 16.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Emmanuel Mudiay | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 18.2 | -0.3 | 21.8 | -3.2 | 0.84 | 22.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Gary Harris, Will Barton (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Will Barton (Cash), Jamal Murray (GPP), Emmanuel Mudiay (GPP), Kenneth Faried (GPP), Trey Lyles (GPP), Mason Plumlee (GPP)
Orlando Magic
The Magic will be without two of their best three wing players tonight, as Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier are both dealing with injuries. This opens up a lot of playing time in the rotation and quite a bit of usage in the offense. Orlando draws an exploitable matchup against the Nuggets, who are a much different defense without Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic on the floor. In their last two games, Denver has given up 122 points to the Mavericks and 123 points to the Pelicans. The Magic come into tonight’s contest with an implied total of 110.3 points.
If we run the CourtIQ tool with Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier off the floor, we can see that Jonathon Simmons is the main beneficiary. In 171 minutes this season, Simmons has a 33% usage rate with those two off the floor. Add in the fact that he could play 40 minutes tonight and I don’t see a reason to fade Simmons in any format. You may hear that Elfrid Payton sees a large decrease in his usage with Ross and Fournier off the floor, but don’t put a lot of stock into it. The sample size is only 20 minutes. CourtIQ is a great tool to use, but we also have to use common sense with it. With no Fournier, more of the offense is going to flow through Payton and he has a dream matchup against the Nuggets.
Arron Afflalo may draw the start at shooting guard tonight, but he is averaging 0.45 FP/min this season, which is abysmal. The other Aaron, aka A-A-ron (Key & Peele, anyone?) has a massive ceiling tonight. Aaron Gordon is averaging 39 minutes over his last four games and the Nuggets are ranked 25th or worse in DvP, efficiency, and DRPM against power forwards. Nikola Vucevic is also viable and we can throw the Nuggets’ DvP ranking against centers out the window. Mason Plumlee and Kenneth Faried aren’t nearly as intimidating as Jokic.
Notable Injuries
Terrence Ross (Out)
Evan Fournier (Out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 107.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.3 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 (2 of 16)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $8,100 | $6,600 | $12,000 | 29.0 | 2.1 | 28.0 | 5.9 | 1.03 | 20.1% | 29 | 28 | 27 |
| Arron Afflalo | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 0.45 | 9.8% | 16 | 5 | 3 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $6,100 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 21.3 | 5.6 | 27.5 | 10.5 | 0.78 | 20.1% | 9 | 15 | 29 |
| Aaron Gordon | $9,200 | $8,400 | $15,500 | 36.2 | 0.5 | 33.9 | 5.0 | 1.07 | 19.1% | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $8,400 | $8,100 | $15,900 | 36.5 | 7.4 | 30.1 | 1.8 | 1.21 | 21.9% | 19 | 2 | 25 |
| D.J. Augustin | $3,700 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 16.2 | -2.7 | 19.6 | -1.7 | 0.82 | 17.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton, Jonathon Simmons, Aaron Gordon (GPP), Nikola Vucevic (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon (Cash), Nikola Vucevic (Cash)
Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.0 |  | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.0 | Vegas Spread | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 96.5 | Implied Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 13 | 21 | 29 | 12 | 5 | DvP | 24 | 20 | 23 | 21 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 15 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 8 | 25 | 22 | 27 | |
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have the worst record in the NBA and it’s not particularly close. While they are expected to have Nikola Mirotic back in the lineup, he doesn’t change much in terms of their outlook on the season. Chicago comes into tonight’s game as 9-point underdogs against a Hornets’ team that plays very well at home. The Bulls have an implied total of only 96.5 points, which is the lowest of the 16 teams in action tonight.
With Mirotic back in the mix, I don’t want to play anyone from the Bulls’ frontcourt until we see how that rotation shakes out. Bobby Portis is an enticing tournament play on FanDuel ($3,900), but he’s my second favorite power forward in this game. The only Bulls’ player that I am considering tonight is Kris Dunn, who is averaging 30 minutes and 32 fantasy points over his last four games. He’s slightly overpriced on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings ($5,800) if you think the Bulls can keep this game competitive.
Notable Injuries
Nikola Mirotic (Probable)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 95.7 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.5 (16 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (6 of 16)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $6,700 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 28.0 | 4.2 | 27.4 | 2.3 | 1.02 | 23.7% | 10 | 13 | 15 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,500 | $5,500 | $11,300 | 26.7 | -0.6 | 34.3 | 0.8 | 0.78 | 18.7% | 23 | 21 | 9 |
| Denzel Valentine | $5,100 | $5,400 | $10,500 | 22.8 | -1.8 | 29.3 | 2.7 | 0.78 | 16.9% | 20 | 29 | 7 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,300 | $5,600 | $11,900 | 28.1 | -2.1 | 30.6 | 0.0 | 0.92 | 20.1% | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| Robin Lopez | $5,200 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 24.6 | 3.2 | 29.9 | 0.8 | 0.82 | 18.6% | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| Bobby Portis | $3,900 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 23.5 | -3.2 | 22.2 | -1.0 | 1.06 | 22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kris Dunn (DK GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (DK Cash)
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets will be short-handed in their frontcourt tonight, as Frank Kaminsky and Cody Zeller have both been ruled out. Based on their season averages, this opens up 43 minutes of playing time that will likely be soaked up by a combination of Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dwight Howard, and Johnny O’Bryant. Tonight’s game against the Bulls has the potential to turn into a blowout, but this is a favorable matchup for Charlotte. They currently have an implied total of 105.5 points, which is the seventh highest of the slate.
Kemba Walker has played well in his first two games back from injury, scoring 54 and 44 fantasy points. While I don’t have respect for the Bulls’ defense as a whole, I do have respect for Kris Dunn as an individual defender. Since entering the starting lineup, Chicago has improved against the position. With so many great point guard options in the mid-range, I doubt I’ll have any shares of Walker tonight. Nicolas Batum hasn’t been great on a per-minute basis this season, but has seen 35 or more minutes in three straight games. The price is low enough that I don’t mind targeting him as a contrarian tournament play.
Kidd-Gilchrist could play over 30 minutes tonight, as the Hornets only have so many bodies they can play in their frontcourt. MKG isn’t someone that I will be starting my lineup builds with, but he offers nice value on DraftKings ($4,000). Williams should play all of the minutes that he can handle tonight and is my favorite value play of the slate. He’s a decent defender, a good rebounder, and he can make threes. At this price point and with a minute projection north of 30, he should easily exceed value against the Bulls. I never quite know what to expect from Howard. His minutes are way down recently, but the Hornets may not have a choice but to play him 35 minutes tonight. The upside is there with Dwight, but so is the risk.
Notable Injuries
Frank Kaminsky (Out)
Cody Zeller (Out)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9 (5 of 16)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $8,700 | $8,100 | $15,200 | 37.9 | 10.9 | 35.2 | 0.4 | 1.08 | 26.6% | 25 | 24 | 10 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,400 | $6,100 | $12,300 | 23.7 | 2.8 | 29.2 | 6.0 | 0.81 | 19.6% | 25 | 20 | 8 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,200 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 18.8 | 2.5 | 25.8 | 2.7 | 0.73 | 14.3% | 20 | 23 | 25 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,400 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 18.4 | 1.6 | 25.8 | 0.6 | 0.71 | 12.3% | 26 | 21 | 22 |
| Dwight Howard | $7,800 | $7,500 | $13,300 | 32.5 | -6.5 | 29.1 | -2.6 | 1.12 | 19.5% | 21 | 13 | 27 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $5,700 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 28.3 | -6.3 | 28.1 | -4.1 | 1.01 | 22.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Marvin Williams
Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum (GPP), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK), Dwight Howard (GPP)
Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.0 |  | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -5.5 | Vegas Spread | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.3 | Implied Team Total | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Quinn Cook | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | JaVale McGee | Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Stanley Johnson | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 14 | 30 | 9 | 9 | DvP | 17 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 18 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 24 | 17 | 11 | 29 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | N/A | 16 | 19 | 1 | 26 | |
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors didn’t skip a beat the other night, handily beating the Hornets without Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. They are expected to have Green back in the lineup tonight, although they will be without Curry, Patrick McCaw, and Zaza Pachulia. A matchup against the Pistons is never ideal, especially when the game is being played in Detroit. On the season, the Pistons are ranked 20th in pace of play and seventh in points allowed per game. Curry’s absence is part of it, but the Warriors’ implied total of 108.3 points is nearly ten points below their season average.
As mentioned on Wednesday, Kevin Durant stands to benefit the most while Curry is out. His minutes and usage should both go up in the next couple of weeks and he’s coming off of a monster game against the Hornets, scoring 66 fantasy points. Tonight’s matchup bodes well for Durant, as the Pistons are ranked 29th in efficiency and 30th in DvP against small forwards. Durant is arguably the top overall play of the slate and he’s significantly cheaper than Giannis Antetokounmpo, DeMarcus Cousins, and LeBron James.
Outside of Durant, there isn’t anyone that I love from Golden State. Quinn Cook and Shaun Livingston will both see around 20 minutes, but neither has been productive enough if you look at their fantasy point per minute production. Klay Thompson splits over the last two years are basically the same, regardless of whether Curry plays or sits. Andre Iguodala had one of his best games of the season, but I am tempering expectations. He is still only averaging 0.73 FP/min this season. Draymond Green has been playing well recently, averaging over 40 fantasy points in his last four games. I worry about foul trouble tonight, as he’ll have to defend Andre Drummond quite a bit in this one.
Notable Injuries
Stephen Curry (Out)
Patrick McCaw (Out)
Zaza Pachulia (Out)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 117.8 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -9.6 (16 of 16)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Cook | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 0.73 | 14.9% | 21 | 9 | 24 |
| Klay Thompson | $7,400 | $7,300 | $15,200 | 32.1 | -0.2 | 33.2 | 1.4 | 0.97 | 20.5% | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| Kevin Durant | $11,100 | $10,700 | $20,300 | 45.6 | 2.1 | 34.2 | -1.9 | 1.33 | 25.9% | 29 | 30 | 11 |
| Draymond Green | $8,200 | $7,700 | $14,400 | 35.4 | 5.0 | 31.9 | 2.8 | 1.11 | 15.6% | 10 | 9 | 29 |
| JaVale McGee | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 9.5 | -1.7 | 7.8 | -1.4 | 1.22 | 15.8% | 15 | 9 | 2 |
| Shaun Livingston | $3,500 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 11.2 | -4.9 | 15.2 | -2.8 | 0.73 | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,900 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 18.8 | 10.4 | 26.1 | 1.8 | 0.72 | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kevin Durant
Secondary Plays – Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons played the Warriors tough earlier this season and that was in Oakland. While Golden State is ranked sixth in defensive efficiency this season, they play at such a fast pace that they give up more points than you would expect. They are currently ranked 17th in points allowed per game. The Pistons’ implied total of 102.8 points honestly seems a bit low. I generally don’t disagree with Vegas, but I’m giving Detroit’s offense a slight boost as a whole in this matchup.
Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith eat into each other’s upside, but Jackson is averaging over 30 minutes in his last four games. If he plays well tonight, a 30-32 minute expectation seems more than reasonable. I’m not worried about a matchup against the likes of Quinn Cook and Shaun Livingston and Jackson has an elite true usage of 26% this season. Avery Bradley has been quiet recently and seeing as how I never get him right, he’s an easy fade for me in an eight game slate.
Power forward is one of the most difficult positions to peg tonight. Outside of Marvin Williams, there aren’t really any standout plays. This makes Tobias Harris more appealing. He is averaging 33 fantasy points per game at home this season and should only have to deal with Draymond Green for 15 minutes or so (Green will play the five when JaVale McGee is off the floor). Andre Drummond is having a breakout season. He has scored at least 53 fantasy points in three of his last four games and put up 48 fantasy points against the Warriors earlier this season. He’s not my favorite center to pay up for tonight, but he’s a close second behind DeMarcus Cousins.
Notable Injuries
None
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (12 of 16)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.8 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $5,800 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 28.0 | -1.3 | 28.1 | 2.1 | 1.00 | 25.6% | 12 | 17 | N/A |
| Avery Bradley | $5,300 | $5,300 | $10,300 | 24.3 | -5.8 | 31.8 | 0.7 | 0.76 | 20.6% | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| Stanley Johnson | $4,200 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 17.4 | 2.2 | 29.9 | 1.3 | 0.58 | 13.0% | 15 | 20 | 19 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,600 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 29.7 | -0.6 | 33.3 | 2.0 | 0.89 | 20.7% | 15 | 23 | 1 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,600 | $9,400 | $17,100 | 44.4 | 8.7 | 33.4 | 1.8 | 1.33 | 17.9% | 9 | 18 | 26 |
Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson (FD), Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (DK), Tobias Harris
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.5 |  | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.0 | Vegas Spread | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 111.8 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 16 | 2 | 19 | 30 | DvP | 21 | 27 | 6 | 18 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 6 | 1 | 28 | 10 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 26 | 16 | 28 | 20 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
This is one of my favorite games of the slate. It’s fairly obvious that this game has shootout potential, but I expect it to fly under the radar compared to a couple of the other games on the schedule. Both of these teams are ranked above the league average in pace of play and they are both ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game. The icing on the cake is that the game features a four point spread, so we should expect it to remain competitive throughout. The Cavaliers have the highest implied total of the night at 111.8 points.
LeBron James is basically the entire Cavaliers’ offense. He has managed to be extremely productive during their winning streak, even though they have been involved in a number of blowouts. He has 40 minute upside tonight if this game stays close and the Pacers don’t really have an athletic enough wing to match up with him. The best part is that I expect Kevin Durant to have higher ownership. Dollar for dollar, I’ll still take Durant in cash games, but I prefer James in tournaments and I certainly don’t mind pairing the two if you can make it work.
Dwyane Wade has a low floor and a high ceiling. I haven’t played him often this season and I don’t expect to have any exposure to him tonight. It’s not that he can’t have a big game, he just doesn’t grade out as a top point-per-dollar play at shooting guard. The best way to attack Indiana this season has been with bigs. The Pacers are ranked 29th in efficiency and 30th in DvP against centers this season. Kevin Love is averaging under 30 minutes per game this season, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t play 32-34 minutes in a close game. Love is an excellent tournament play, especially if you are looking to stack this game.
Notable Injuries
Tristan Thompson (Out)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 111.1 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.8 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.7 (7 of 16)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 6.5 | -0.4 | 14.4 | 4.2 | 0.45 | 10.1% | 14 | 20 | 6 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,400 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 17.1 | 1.5 | 31.0 | 1.0 | 0.55 | 12.1% | 13 | 16 | 1 |
| LeBron James | $12,000 | $11,700 | $21,900 | 54.4 | 1.4 | 37.1 | 0.9 | 1.47 | 29.4% | 4 | 2 | 28 |
| Jae Crowder | $3,800 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 14.9 | -0.4 | 25.6 | -1.7 | 0.58 | 13.4% | 23 | 19 | 10 |
| Kevin Love | $8,000 | $8,500 | $15,500 | 35.8 | 3.7 | 29.4 | -0.3 | 1.22 | 22.5% | 29 | 30 | 8 |
| Dwyane Wade | $6,100 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 25.4 | 5.2 | 23.7 | 0.8 | 1.07 | 23.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (Cash)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have won seven of their lat ten games and currently sport an 8-4 record at home. While the Cavaliers have won 13 games in a row, I expect the Pacers to keep this game close throughout. Cleveland has been better on the defensive end of the floor recently, but are still ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 23rd in defensive efficiency. The Pacers have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the sixth highest on the board.
Darren Collison scored 45 fantasy points against the Cavaliers earlier this season and is one of my favorite targets at point guard. Cleveland has not fared well against the position, they technically only have one true point guard in Jose Calderon, and Collison has 35+ minute upside in close games. I don’t expect a lot of people to look his way, but I will be loading up on Collison in both cash games and tournaments. Victor Oladipo has been on a tear recently, averaging 49 fantasy points over his last four games. He has an elite usage rate in this offense and an elite matchup against the Cavaliers. My bold prediction in today’s Expert Survey (available for premium members) is that Collison and Oladipo will combine for over 100 fantasy points.
One of the big injuries to keep an eye on tonight is Myles Turner. If he is unable to suit up, Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis would both become elite plays. If Turner is active, I will have a little interest in Young, but no interest in Sabonis. There is no love lost between Lance Stephenson and LeBron James. If Cory Joseph is unable to suit up tonight, Stephenson could push for 26-30 minutes off the bench.
Notable Injuries
Cory Joseph (Questionable)
Myles Turner (Questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.4 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (6 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (10 of 16)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $6,000 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 28.5 | 0.8 | 31.2 | -3.1 | 0.91 | 18.6% | 20 | 21 | 9 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,300 | $8,900 | $16,300 | 41.1 | 7.7 | 33.4 | 2.0 | 1.23 | 26.6% | 21 | 27 | 26 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,800 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 21.5 | 0.4 | 31.3 | 2.1 | 0.69 | 16.3% | 17 | 6 | 16 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,200 | $6,000 | $12,300 | 28.3 | 0.9 | 33.1 | -0.8 | 0.86 | 16.2% | 20 | 18 | 28 |
| Myles Turner | $7,800 | $6,200 | $12,100 | 31.3 | 0.2 | 29.1 | 1.5 | 1.08 | 18.0% | 16 | 20 | 20 |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,400 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 18.4 | -1.7 | 21.4 | 0.5 | 0.86 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $4,800 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 25.6 | -8.3 | 25.0 | -3.6 | 1.03 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Thaddeus Young & Domantas Sabonis (if Turner is out)
Secondary Plays – Thaddeus Young (if Turner is active), Lance Stephenson (if Joseph is out)
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.5 |  | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 8.5 | Vegas Spread | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.5 | Implied Team Total | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | George Hill | Garrett Temple | JaKarr Sampson | Zach Randolph | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Dante Cunningham | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 26 | 24 | 27 | 6 | DvP | 18 | 11 | 21 | 15 | 29 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 12 | 27 | 13 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 19 | |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings played the Cavaliers tough on Wednesday, but eventually fell short and dropped to 3-11 on the road. Tonight they head to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans in a game that features a high spread of 8.5 points. This game has plenty of upside, but it also has plenty of risk if it gets out of hand early. The Kings currently have the highest projected point differential of the slate, as their implied total is 5.9 points higher than their season average.
George Hill and De’Aaron Fox continue to underwhelm. Frank Mason has played the best of the three, but he feels like a reach in an eight game slate. Garrett Temple and Buddy Hield have the best matchups for Sacramento, as the Pelicans have struggled to contain wing players this season. I’d like to play Hield in a revenge game here, but he seems overpriced for a player that is only averaging 22.3 minutes on the season. Temple offers decent value on DraftKings ($3,900), but isn’t a player that I’m going to force into my lineups.
The two best plays from the Kings both come from the frontcourt. Jakarr Sampson drew the start on Wednesday and scored 28 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action. While his minutes aren’t as guaranteed as say, Marvin Williams, Sampson is still one of the better values plays available tonight. I’ve mentioned Zach Randolph splits a number of times this season. He basically crushes value anytime he has two or more days of rest between games. He is only working with one day of rest coming into this game, but he’s still on my radar with Willie Cauley-Stein out. Randolph has played at least 31 minutes in three straight games, averaging 42 fantasy points during that stretch.
Notable Injuries
Willie Cauley-Stein (Out)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 95.6 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (11 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.9 (1 of 16)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $4,800 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 21.1 | -3.4 | 26.2 | -0.9 | 0.80 | 21.5% | 22 | 19 | 21 |
| George Hill | $4,500 | $4,100 | $8,100 | 18.6 | -1.4 | 25.8 | -2.3 | 0.72 | 16.3% | 26 | 26 | 12 |
| Garrett Temple | $4,500 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 17.2 | 4.5 | 25.8 | 2.4 | 0.67 | 14.3% | 27 | 24 | 27 |
| JaKarr Sampson | $4,200 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 13.8 | 6.4 | 17.6 | 11.3 | 0.78 | 10.9% | 13 | 27 | 13 |
| Zach Randolph | $6,700 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 26.8 | 10.0 | 25.2 | 3.9 | 1.06 | 24.2% | 12 | 6 | 4 |
| Buddy Hield | $4,800 | $5,100 | $11,200 | 21.6 | 0.9 | 22.3 | -1.2 | 0.97 | 22.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – JaKarr Sampson (DK), Zach Randolph (DK)
Secondary Plays – JaKarr Sampson (FD), Zach Randolph (FD), Garrett Temple (DK)
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are a tough team to break down from a fantasy perspective until we know the status of Anthony Davis. He is currently listed as questionable, after missing the last three games with a groin injury. We should all hope that he’s not a game-time decision, as we may not hear if he’s playing or not until after lineups lock. In terms of the Pelicans’ matchup, this is a favorable one. While the Kings play at a slow pace, they are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 27th in rebounding differential.
The appeal of Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday both hinge on the availability of Davis. If he is ruled out, I will go right back to the well and treat them both as elite plays. If he is active, I will be fading Holiday and only using Rondo in large-field tournaments. If he is still questionable at the time of lineups lock, I will only use Holiday and Rondo in tournaments. E’Twaun Moore and Darius Miller are basically in the same situation, so it’s really just a wait and see game at this point.
DeMarcus Cousins is a little different than the players listed above. He has an elite usage rate and gets to face a Kings’ defense that is ranked 28th in efficiency and 29th in DvP against centers. Even if Davis plays, we should still consider Cousins an elite play against his former team. The best case scenario if you like Cousins tonight is if Davis is questionable heading into lineup lock (which will lower Cousins’ ownership) and then eventually gets ruled out.
Notable Injuries
Anthony Davis (Questionable)
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 109.4 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.6 (8 of 16)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $6,100 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 23.5 | 11.2 | 23.9 | 3.7 | 0.98 | 17.7% | 18 | 18 | 29 |
| Jrue Holiday | $7,500 | $7,100 | $13,300 | 32.5 | 4.0 | 36.4 | 1.3 | 0.89 | 20.2% | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,500 | $4,500 | $9,600 | 21.0 | 5.4 | 31.4 | 5.4 | 0.67 | 14.3% | 19 | 21 | 9 |
| Dante Cunningham | $4,700 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 13.9 | 5.5 | 22.9 | -3.2 | 0.61 | 9.9% | 28 | 15 | 11 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $12,000 | $11,800 | $21,000 | 53.6 | 5.1 | 35.6 | 0.6 | 1.50 | 28.5% | 28 | 29 | 19 |
| Darius Miller | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 19.7 | 11.1 | 0.62 | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |