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NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-28 04:03:23

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Sacramento Kings Indiana Pacers
sacramentonba Vegas Total 210.5 indiananba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Spread 4.0 Vegas Spread -4.0
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 107.3
Pace +/- 1.3 Pace +/- -1.9
Proj. Starter Darren Collison Arron Afflalo Garrett Temple DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos Proj. Starter Jeff Teague C.J. Miles Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 12 19 21 22 23 Adj. DvP 24 23 20 11 12
DRPM -0.21 -0.80 -0.30 1.83 2.01 DRPM -2.19 -2.10 0.41 0.60 2.87

Sacramento Kings

The Kings may have won two games in a row, but they are a team heading in the wrong direction. With Rudy Gay out for the season, the odds of them making the playoffs are slim to none. Tonight they head to Indiana to take on a Pacers’ team that is ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency. Sacramento comes into the game with an implied total of 103.3 points, which is slightly above their season average.

The Kings’ point guard rotation continues to be frustrating, as Darren Collison and Ty Lawson seem to trade off having good games. In a ten game slate, they are both easy fades. Arron Afflalo and Garrett Temple provide nice punt plays at shooting guard tonight, as both are averaging over 34 minutes in their last three games. Afflalo is minimum salary on both sites, while Temple is priced just above $4,000. DeMarcus Cousins has scored 64 and 53 fantasy points in his last two games against the Pacers. He is one of the top overall plays in the slate and easily the top center on the board. While he is a strong play on both sites, his $10,700 salary on FanDuel sticks out like a sore thumb. Or in the case of Enes Kanter, a sore forearm.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $4,800 $4,800 0.75 29.4 -0.6 21.9 1.9 21.4% 0.9% 12 -0.21
Arron Afflalo $3,500 $3,000 0.48 24.3 10.3 11.7 5.0 14.0% -2.0% 19 -0.80
Garrett Temple $4,400 $4,200 0.64 26.5 7.6 17.0 5.7 14.4% 0.2% 21 -0.30
DeMarcus Cousins $10,700 $11,000 1.43 34.6 1.1 49.4 10.3 36.8% 4.5% 22 1.83
Kosta Koufos $3,500 $3,000 0.79 19.3 -1.0 15.2 -1.6 13.8% -2.9% 23 2.01
Ty Lawson $4,400 $4,000 0.78 24.7 -3.7 19.3 2.8 21.9% 4.9% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMarcus Cousins

Secondary Plays – Garrett Temple, Arron Afflalo

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and are finally back above .500 overall. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the short-handed Kings at home, but they come into the game as only 4-point favorites. The low spread could have something to do with the fact that Indiana is playing in the second half of a back-to-back. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Kings are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.

I’ve been off of the Jeff Teague train for a while now, but am considering hopping back on for tonight’s game against the Kings. Sacramento is ranked 24th against point guards this season and Darren Collison has one of the worst DRPM’s in the NBA. Teague is priced affordably across the industry and should continue to see around 35 minutes with Rodney Stuckey out. C.J. Miles is about a thousand dollars too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. In his last two starts, he is averaging 32 minutes. Paul George has finally broken out of his slump, scoring 45 and 43 fantasy points in his last two games. It appears that FanDuel forgot to adjust his salary, as he is still only $7,000. Thaddeus Young is a decent cash game target, but far from one of my core plays in this ten game slate. Myles Turner has good splits at home and an attractive price tag on FanDuel ($6,400). However, I am always hesitant to target centers against DeMarcus Cousins. He is one of the best in the NBA at drawing fouls.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,200 $7,200 1.05 32.3 3.7 33.8 1.3 26.7% -2.5% 24 -2.19
C.J. Miles $3,500 $3,700 0.75 22.1 8.0 16.5 -0.2 18.0% -4.3% 23 -2.10
Paul George $7,300 $7,900 1.01 35.5 -0.7 35.8 2.5 27.1% 3.2% 20 0.41
Thaddeus Young $5,600 $5,700 0.77 31.4 2.0 24.2 0.6 15.9% -1.3% 11 0.60
Myles Turner $6,400 $6,600 1.02 30.2 2.0 30.8 0.8 19.6% -0.3% 12 2.87
Monta Ellis $3,500 $3,200 0.62 27.9 -4.1 17.4 -6.1 17.2% 3.6% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, C.J. Miles, Paul George (FD)

Secondary Plays – Paul George (DK), Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner (FD)

Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets New York Knicks
charlottenba Vegas Total 211.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 106.3 Team Total 105.3
Pace +/- 0.8 Pace +/- 0.1
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 10 30 8 26 19 Adj. DvP 18 24 22 6 25
DRPM -2.40 -0.62 -1.72 1.62 1.26 DRPM -0.65 0.72 2.04 0.50 2.39

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have lost seven of their last ten games and are only 8-14 on the road this season. Tonight’s game against the Knicks could turn into a shootout, as the spread is set at a single point and the game has an over/under of 211.5 points. The Knicks have struggled defensively all season, ranking 24th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Hornets come into the game with an implied total of 106.3 points, which 1.1 points above their season average.

I generally try to avoid targeting Kemba Walker on the road, but I plan to have some tournament exposure to Walker tonight. Derrick Rose has one of the worst DRPM’s of any player in the NBA and the Hornets have that high implied total that was mentioned earlier. Nicolas Batum is a viable target in all formats. The Knicks are ranked dead last against shooting guards this season and Batum can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. I’m typically not a huge Batum fan, but he is cash game playable tonight. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist remains a safe cash game target, especially if Jeremy Lamb is ruled out again. Cody Zeller missed Wednesday’s game and is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s contest. If he is unable to suit up, Marvin Williams, Frank Kaminsky, and Spencer Hawes would all become viable punt plays.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,900 $7,900 1.08 33.8 1.7 36.7 -2.9 30.8% 2.6% 10 -2.40
Nicolas Batum $7,100 $7,300 0.95 34.6 2.5 32.9 -1.8 23.5% -3.4% 30 -0.62
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,400 $5,300 0.77 29.8 2.6 23.0 6.4 14.5% 1.7% 8 -1.72
Marvin Williams $5,100 $4,800 0.78 27.1 1.1 21.1 5.3 17.4% 0.6% 26 1.62
Cody Zeller $5,200 $5,000 0.87 26.9 6.1 23.3 8.7 16.3% -3.5% 19 1.26
Frank Kaminsky $3,900 $3,800 0.80 24.2 -3.3 19.4 -4.8 20.6% -1.1% 26 N/A
Spencer Hawes $4,000 $4,300 0.92 17.2 11.8 15.8 17.3 20.5% 2.2% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (if Lamb is out)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Marvin Williams, Frank Kaminsky, Spencer Hawes (if Zeller is out)

New York Knicks

Even though the Knicks have been in an absolute free-fall over the last month of play, they are only three games out of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. The trade rumors surrounding Carmelo Anthony are tough on the whole team though, and it’s hard to see this team making a run in the second half of the season. The Knicks draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Hornets, who have not played well on the road this season. New York has an implied total of 105.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

Derrick Rose hurt his leg the other night against the Mavericks, but is tentatively expected to play tonight. If he ends up being a late scratch, Brandon Jennings would become an auto-play against a Hornets’ defense that is ranked 18th against point guards. If Rose is active and without any limitations, he is worth a look on DraftKings at a price of only $5,700. Courtney Lee offers decent value for the price, but there are five or six viable punt plays at shooting guard tonight. Carmelo Anthony is a little too expensive on FanDuel and a little too cheap on DraftKings. We have to be price-sensitive in NBA DFS, which makes him a DraftKings-specific play tonight. Until Kristaps Porzingis can put together a couple of strong outings in a row, I will continue to fade him in all formats. Joakim Noah’s price is way down across the industry, but I’d rather take a shot on Willy Hernangomez, who has actually shown some signs of life recently.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,500 $5,700 0.90 32.3 4.9 29.1 -1.1 28.5% -1.2% 18 -0.65
Courtney Lee $4,200 $3,900 0.58 30.8 2.8 18.0 8.6 13.9% 1.1% 24 0.72
Carmelo Anthony $8,000 $7,200 1.05 33.6 4.1 35.3 3.8 29.1% 1.2% 22 2.04
Kristaps Porzingis $6,600 $6,200 0.99 33.4 -6.5 33.1 -13.4 23.4% -0.8% 6 0.50
Joakim Noah $4,700 $3,700 0.94 22.6 -5.6 21.2 -5.9 14.4% 0.5% 25 2.39
Justin Holiday $3,500 $3,100 0.72 19.1 -0.4 13.7 -1.6 16.8% -4.0% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – Derrick Rose (DK), Carmelo Anthony (DK)

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose (FD), Carmelo Anthony (FD), Courtney Lee

Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Toronto Raptors
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 213.5 torontonba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 104.3 Team Total 109.3
Pace +/- -0.7 Pace +/- -1.0
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Jabari Parker Miles Plumlee Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry Norman Powell DeMarre Carroll Jared Sullinger Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 15 2 10 23 8 Adj. DvP 3 26 28 20 16
DRPM 1.04 -0.15 0.69 1.11 -0.29 DRPM 2.32 -1.18 -0.53 -1.72 1.65

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are counting down the days until Khris Middleton can return to the lineup. If they can sneak into the playoffs and have a month or so with Middleton back in the mix, they could surprise someone in the first round of the playoffs. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Raptors, who will be without their top scorer, DeMar DeRozan. The Bucks are only 5-point underdogs on the road and they have an implied total of 104.3 points. The Raptors are a mediocre defensive team at best and we could see this game shootout, which is always good for fantasy production.

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s price has come down on both FanDuel and DraftKings, even though he has one of the highest floors of any player in the NBA. The only problem with Giannis is that he seems to have a quiet quarter every game where he doesn’t really do anything on the stat sheet. I’m not overly concerned though, and will be buying a lot of Alphabet Inc. shares tonight in both cash games and tournaments. Matthew Dellavedova is the best punt play at point guard tonight on FanDuel, but as I always talk about, rostering him has some serious opportunity cost at the position. Jabari Parker is averaging 39 fantasy points over his last three games and is only $7,000 on DraftKings. I love his matchup against Jared Sullinger to start the game. Greg Monroe is always worth a look in tournaments, but predicting his minutes is a lot like predicting my wife’s spending habits – extremely difficult and painful at times.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,300 $10,000 1.34 35.0 2.9 46.9 -1.5 29.9% -0.5% 15 1.04
Matthew Dellavedova $3,900 $4,400 0.68 26.7 5.3 18.1 6.1 19.3% -1.2% 2 -0.15
Tony Snell $3,500 $3,100 0.51 29.0 -2.5 14.9 -1.7 11.6% -2.9% 10 0.69
Jabari Parker $7,800 $7,000 0.96 34.3 2.0 33.0 5.6 25.5% 1.2% 23 1.11
Miles Plumlee $3,500 $3,000 0.64 9.5 8.9 6.1 9.4 14.8% 1.1% 8 -0.29
Greg Monroe $5,700 $5,300 1.14 21.3 3.5 24.2 5.2 24.3% 5.6% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker (DK)

Secondary Plays – Matthew Dellavedova, Jabari Parker (FD), Greg Monroe (GPP)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors will be without DeMar DeRozan for the third straight game, as they take on the visiting Bucks tonight. This is a mediocre matchup overall, as Milwaukee is ranked between 11th and 20th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Raptors are listed as 5-point favorites with an implied total of 109.3 points. Even though their total is nearly identical to their season average, we have to keep in mind that they are missing their best scorer, who averages 27.9 points per game.

I haven’t had a ton of exposure to the Raptors in the last two games, primarily because of the matchups. They faced two of the best defenses in the NBA in the Spurs and Grizzlies. I plan to load up on Toronto players tonight and I will start with Kyle Lowry. With DeRozan off the floor this season, Lowry has a usage rate over 30% and is averaging 46.8 fantasy points per 40 minutes, which is about what we can expect him to play tonight. Lowry is my favorite point guard play in the slate. Norman Powell has 37 shot attempts in the last two games and will end up being one of the most popular players in the slate tonight. I am locking him into my cash game lineups, but may consider pivoting to Terrence Ross in tournaments. We can also look to Cory Joseph as a sneaky tournament play off the bench. There are too many bodies splitting minutes at power forward right now, but I do like Jonas Valanciunas at center. He is averaging 30 fantasy points in his last three games and the Bucks aren’t particularly stout in the paint.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,600 $8,600 1.06 37.3 2.3 39.6 -1.3 26.9% 3.4% 3 2.32
Norman Powell $4,200 $4,600 0.71 15.7 10.4 11.1 11.1 18.4% 4.4% 26 -1.18
DeMarre Carroll $4,200 $4,300 0.69 26.1 -3.4 18.0 1.0 15.7% 4.2% 28 -0.53
Jared Sullinger $3,500 $3,000 0.64 14.0 -1.0 9.0 -0.5 20.5% -1.4% 20 -1.72
Jonas Valanciunas $5,700 $5,800 0.96 27.1 1.5 26.1 4.2 18.3% -1.4% 16 1.65
Terrence Ross $3,600 $4,200 0.75 22.4 2.8 16.8 -0.9 18.7% 0.8% 28 N/A
Cory Joseph $4,000 $3,900 0.77 22.8 4.0 17.5 -1.1 20.7% -3.8% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell

Secondary Plays – Terrence Ross, Cory Joseph, Jonas Valanciunas

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Cleveland Cavaliers
brooklynnba Vegas Total 226.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 226.5
Vegas Spread 15.0 Vegas Spread -15.0
Team Total 105.8 Team Total 120.8
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- 5.4
Proj. Starter Spencer Dinwiddie Randy Foye Bojan Bogdanovic Justin Hamilton Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 25 29 9 9 Adj. DvP 30 29 30 28 29
DRPM -1.41 -0.29 0.83 1.81 2.36 DRPM -0.41 -1.56 -3.39 0.47 -0.33

Brooklyn Nets

I’ve been getting burned by fading the Cavaliers in the last two games. They have been huge favorites over the Kings and Pelicans and they haven’t been able to take care of business. I don’t want to overreact though, as targeting the Nets on the road in a game where they are favored to lose by 15 points isn’t exactly ideal. The Nets do have an implied total of 105.8 points, but on a night that features ten games, I don’t see the need to take unnecessary risks. The only player that I have some interest in here is Brook Lopez, but the Cavaliers are ranked ninth against centers this season. Tristan Thompson also has one of the best DRPM’s of any center in the league. I’m going to be fading the Nets tonight in hopes that the Cavaliers can actually play up to their level of talent.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $3,900 $3,400 0.66 20.5 8.8 13.6 3.7 16.1% -3.1% 25 -1.41
Randy Foye $3,500 $3,000 0.61 18.0 9.3 10.9 2.3 17.0% -2.9% 25 -0.29
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,300 $4,200 0.77 26.5 -0.6 20.3 -0.6 21.3% 1.0% 29 0.83
Justin Hamilton $3,500 $3,300 0.76 19.8 -7.4 15.1 -9.3 14.7% -2.5% 9 1.81
Brook Lopez $7,400 $6,500 1.12 29.2 -0.6 32.6 -0.5 28.3% 3.3% 9 2.36
Sean Kilpatrick $4,000 $4,400 0.84 26.8 -2.3 22.4 -1.0 24.2% 0.2% 25 N/A
Caris LeVert $4,300 $4,000 0.75 18.8 3.4 14.1 4.6 16.6% 1.3% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Cleveland Cavaliers

There is no team in basketball that has frustrated me more than the Cavaliers this season. I could be overreacting to the last few games, but let me tilt in peace. They come out and lose to the Anthony Davis-less Pelicans in a shootout and then they go to overtime against the Kings in another shootout. Do you know how much exposure I had to LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love? It rhymes with STEERO. Anyway, the Cavaliers are 15-point favorites tonight against the Nets, who have been on the losing end of a lot of blowouts recently. While that is certainly a concern tonight, we have to at least be intrigued by the Cavaliers’ massive implied total of 120.8 points.

The Cavaliers’ offense is so concentrated that even if the game turns into a blowout, we know where the production is going to come from in the first three quarters. I’m not saying that we should be stacking the Cavaliers in cash games, but we shouldn’t just rule them out in tournaments. The Nets are ranked dead last in points allowed per game this season, so the upside is massive if they are able to keep the game within striking distance. Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love are all viable GPP targets tonight. Iman Shumpert and Tristan Thompson are decent punts at shooting guard and center. I’m more likely to use them in a cash game format since they don’t need to score a ton of fantasy points to meet value. With all of that said, this will probably be the game where the Cavaliers come out and stomp an inferior opponent.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,400 $8,300 1.05 35.3 6.2 37.0 11.9 31.2% -1.8% 30 -0.41
Iman Shumpert $4,100 $4,200 0.61 24.9 6.3 15.3 6.3 14.0% -0.9% 29 -1.56
LeBron James $10,800 $10,200 1.27 37.6 7.0 47.7 3.9 32.9% -4.3% 30 -3.39
Kevin Love $7,900 $8,100 1.15 32.0 5.6 36.7 3.6 26.0% -2.5% 28 2.10
Tristan Thompson $4,700 $4,600 0.77 29.0 3.8 22.4 -1.6 10.4% 0.8% 29 -0.33
Kyle Korver $3,600 $4,000 0.62 27.4 -0.1 16.9 -4.6 14.5% -4.8% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Iman Shumpert, Tristan Thompson

Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Editor’s Note: Al Horford has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Orlando Magic Boston Celtics
orlandonba Vegas Total 214.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 111.5
Pace +/- -0.1 Pace +/- -0.4
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Jeff Green Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Jaylen Brown Jae Crowder Jonas Jerebko Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 27 9 21 17 Adj. DvP 28 18 18 8 27
DRPM -4.64 0.23 0.89 0.21 0.90 DRPM -0.55 -1.86 -0.99 0.44 1.58

Orlando Magic

The Magic have lost eight of their last ten games and come into tonight’s contest as 8.5-point underdogs. That may not sound like a ringing endorsement, but this is actually a great spot for upside if they can keep the game close. The Celtics have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Despite being large underdogs, the Magic have an implied total of 103 points, which is 3.3 points above their season average.

Elfrid Payton and I have had a rocky relationship this season. There have been good and bad moments, but one thing is for sure: I just can’t quit the guy. He let down the whole industry on Wednesday night and I’m hoping that will help lower his ownership tonight. He could end up playing 35+ minutes against the Celtics, who are ranked 22nd against point guards this season. Not only that, but Isaiah Thomas has the worst DRPM of any player in the NBA. He’s ranked 440th out of 440 players. Not only that, but Payton does most of his damage in the paint and the Celtics don’t have an elite rim protector. Once again, I will be massively overweight on the Elf on the Shelf. If Evan Fournier and D.J. Augustin are both out again tonight, Jeff Green and Aaron Gordon should both play a ton of minutes. Both are borderline elite plays at small forward. Serge Ibaka is a sneaky tournament play against a Celtics’ frontcourt that is ranked 21st against power forwards and 27th in rebounding differential. Nikola Vucevic’s minutes have been all over the map, but that’s what happens when your team is constantly involved in blowouts. If this game stays close, he should play 30+ minutes in an excellent matchup against the Celtics.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $6,500 $7,000 0.93 29.3 8.8 27.3 5.2 25.5% 0.9% 22 -4.64
Jeff Green $3,900 $4,000 0.64 23.9 5.6 15.3 9.9 19.7% 2.7% 27 0.23
Aaron Gordon $5,200 $5,400 0.77 27.8 6.1 21.5 4.9 19.7% 0.7% 9 0.89
Serge Ibaka $6,000 $6,300 0.93 30.3 -4.2 28.2 -3.8 20.3% -0.7% 21 0.21
Nikola Vucevic $6,600 $6,500 1.14 28.1 -1.7 32.0 -5.3 25.0% -0.2% 17 0.90
C.J. Watson $4,000 $3,800 0.53 14.1 16.0 7.5 10.2 15.0% 0.8% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon and Jeff Green (if Fournier is out), Nikola Vucevic

Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon (if Fournier is active), Serge Ibaka (GPP)

Boston Celtics

Editor’s Note: Al Horford has been ruled OUT against the Magic. He will be replaced in the starting lineup by Amir Johnson.

The Celtics have won six of their last ten games and are tied for the third best record in the Eastern Conference. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 15th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. This game has sneaky shootout potential and judging by the interest that I’ve seen from other experts around the industry, it could get overlooked. The Celtics have an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 3.9 points above their season average.

Isaiah Thomas has been incredibly consistent this season and we can basically count on him scoring 40+ fantasy points every night. The only reason that I don’t have him listed as an elite play tonight is his price tag. He is getting close to the $10,000 mark on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Jaylen Brown drew the start at shooting guard on Wednesday, but Marcus Smart is still the preferred play of the two. Smart is worth a look in tournaments tonight at a price under $6,000. Jae Crowder is one of the safest cash game targets at small forward. He should see around 35 minutes with a small usage boost with Avery Bradley out. Al Horford is still too cheap on DraftKings at a price of $7,000. He has scored at least 29 fantasy points in 12 straight games and draws a terrific matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 27th against centers this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,800 $9,600 1.20 34.3 4.6 41.1 9.2 35.3% 2.4% 28 -0.55
Jaylen Brown $3,500 $3,000 0.65 13.5 3.3 8.8 -0.2 17.5% -1.2% 18 -1.86
Jae Crowder $5,900 $5,900 0.77 32.3 4.2 24.7 7.2 16.3% 2.3% 18 -0.99
Jonas Jerebko $3,500 $3,000 0.63 16.8 3.8 10.6 6.4 12.0% -2.2% 8 0.44
Al Horford $7,600 $7,000 1.03 33.2 1.8 34.3 3.1 22.7% -1.6% 27 1.58
Marcus Smart $5,600 $5,700 0.75 30.7 4.2 23.0 4.8 20.0% 1.4% 28 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $3,800 $4,200 0.84 20.8 0.6 17.5 -5.1 18.6% -0.3% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Jae Crowder, Al Horford (DK)

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart (GPP), Al Horford (FD)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious