NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-11-04 01:09:14

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total		205.5					Vegas Total		205.5
			Vegas Spread		8.5					Vegas Spread		-8.5
			Implied Team Total		98.5					Implied Team Total		107.0
			Pace Projection +/-		4.2					Pace Projection +/-		-3.8
Projected Starters	Jerian Grant	Justin Holiday	David Nwaba	Lauri Markkanen	Robin Lopez		Projected Starters	Shelvin Mack	Evan Fournier	Terrence Ross	Aaron Gordon	Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	24	17	13	29	14		DvP	25	11	22	25	24
DRPM	-1.54	-1.05	-1.20	-0.61	2.26		DRPM	0.45	0.32	0.41	N/A	0.24

Chicago Bulls

Notable Injuries

Bobby Portis (Out)

How nice would it be to have 6-8 game slates every night on the schedule? While I enjoy the bigger slates, I would trade them in if we could do away with the smaller slates. However, with big slates come big prize pools and there are some big tournaments across the industry. The 12 game slate starts with the Bulls and Magic, who play contrasting styles of basketball. The Magic play at one of the fastest paces in basketball, while the Bulls are ranked 28th. If Chicago can keep this game close, this is a decent bump in terms of pace and potential fantasy production. Their implied total is 8.5 points above their season average.

In the two games since Kris Dunn returned to the lineup, Jerian Grant has only played 21 and 25 minutes. He’s basically off my fantasy radar moving forward. Dunn makes an intriguing tournament play, as he’s scored 25 fantasy points in back-to-back games and played a season high 29 minutes against the Heat. There are few guards in basketball that create turnovers and block shots like Dunn and we know the Magic have struggled against point guards this season.

Justin Holiday has not lived up to the preseason hype, but we shouldn’t be overly surprised. Being the number one option offensively generates a lot of attention from the opposing defense. While I don’t mind the matchup and the price point, I would only use him on FanDuel in tournaments. David Nwaba played 29 minutes in his start the other night, scoring 28 fantasy points in the process. His price is still cheap, but it feels like we are chasing those points a little bit. His minutes are far from guaranteed.

Lauri Markkanen has scored at least 27 fantasy points in every game so far this season. He draws a favorable matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 29th against power forwards and 23rd in rebounding differential. While he’s somewhat appealing in large-field tournaments, he’s far from a core play as a large underdog playing on the road.

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 90.0 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.5 (21 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 8.5 (3 of 24)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.5 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen

Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

Elfrid Payton (Out)
D.J. Augustin (Out)

The Magic have been a fun team to watch. After being one of the slowest paced teams in basketball over the last few seasons, they are ranked third in the first few weeks of this season. Tonight’s matchup against the Bulls isn’t great on paper, but I don’t have a ton of faith in the Bulls’ defense. While they are currently ranked eighth in points allowed per game, that could have something to do with the fact that they’ve been blown out on a few different occasions. The Magic have an implied total of 107 points, which is slightly above the average of the 24 teams in action tonight.

Elfrid Payton has missed the last six games with a hamstring injury and it looks like he’ll miss another one tonight. With D.J. Augustin also out, Shelvin Mack will be forced into a big role. He’s not exactly a high usage point guard, but he could be in line for 30+ minutes at $3,800 on DraftKings. It’s worth noting that without Payton and Augustin in the second half of their last game, the Magic played six of the 24 minutes without a point guard on the floor.

With no backup point guard, we could see more minutes and ball-handling duties for Jonathon Simmons, who is averaging 26 fantasy points per game this season. Evan Fournier has been terrific this season, but I’m not sure he can sustain a 69% true shooting. For comparison, his true shooting last year was 55%. I have a tough time paying a premium for a player that could regress, especially in a large slate. Terrence Ross is a boom or bust tournament option on DraftKings at $3,900.

Outside of the Mack play on DraftKings, Aaron Gordon is my favorite target from the Magic. Gordon is averaging 1.25 FP/min and he draws a favorable matchup against Lauri Markkanen and the Bulls, who are ranked 25th against power forwards this season. Nikola Vucevic price has come down, which puts him on my radar in tournaments. Robin Lopez is a decent defender, but he doesn’t stray far from the rim.

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 114.9 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (11 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -7.9 (22 of 24)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (28 of 30)

Elite Plays – Aaron Gordon, Shelvin Mack (DK & FDRFT)

Secondary Plays – Shelvin Mack (FD), Jonathon Simmons, Nikola Vucevic

Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		220.5					Vegas Total		220.5
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		107.0					Implied Team Total		113.5
			Pace Projection +/-		2.9					Pace Projection +/-		1.5
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Domantas Sabonis		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Dario Saric	Robert Covington	Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	15	29	7	3	29		DvP	22	14	24	15	22
DRPM	N/A	-1.80	-0.80	4.38	2.30		DRPM	-1.67	1.64	-2.76	1.69	1.92

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Myles Turner (Questionable)

The Pacers have played better than anyone could have expected, especially given the fact that they’ve been without their center for most of the season. Myles Turner has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game, so at the very least, he is close to returning. Tonight the Pacers head to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers in a game with a total of 220.5 points. The Sixers like to push the pace and are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game. Indiana has an implied total of 107 points, which is slightly above the average of the 24 teams in action tonight.

Darren Collison bounced back in a big way against the Cavaliers (as predicted). There are times when I wish I would listen to myself and the other night was one of them. He draws another exploitable matchup tonight against the Sixers in an uptempo game. Collison’s price is still reasonable across the industry, but there are plenty of value plays at his position. I’ve been off of Victor Oladipo the last couple of games and may fade him for the third game in a row. The Sixers have one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball in Robert Covington (4.38 DRPM) and I can’t imagine them wasting his talent on Bojan Bogdanovic or Thaddeus Young.

I’m always hesitant to play shooters that are coming off of a few big fantasy outings. It leads to an inflated price point and it’s hard to stay hot forever. Bogdanovic looks like a great value, but I see the writing on the wall. He’s been one of the more volatile players in basketball in the last few seasons. For that reason, I would only look his way in tournaments. The appeal of Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis hinge on the availability of Myles Turner. If he is ruled out, I will go right back to the Sabonis well that has been nourishing DFS bankrolls all season. He has scored at least 33 fantasy points in five of his last six starts.

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 111.5 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (11 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -4.5 (21 of 24)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.1 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.2 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Domantas Sabonis (if Turner is out)

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo (FD), Bojan Bogdanovic (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

None

The Sixers are one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. They are one of the best teams to watch and one of the best teams for fantasy production, both targeting their players and their opponents. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked ninth in pace of play and 20th in points allowed per game. The Sixers are listed as 6.5-point favorites with an implied total of 113.5 points, which is 7.5 points above their season average.

Ben Simmons is still listed as a power forward, yet he plays point guard 90% of the time that he’s on the floor. I’m certainly not complaining, as it allows us to roster more point guards than we actually should be able to. His salary seems a bit high, but not when you look at his production. He is averaging 44 fantasy points per game with a true usage of 24%. He can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and the Pacers don’t have an elite rim protector (especially if Myles Turner is out).

J.J. Redick, Jerryd Bayless, and T.J. McConnell are all going to play between 25-30 minutes on a nightly basis, but McConnell is the only one that stands out as a play in DFS. The problem is that he’s priced up across the industry and playing in a slate that features some truly great values at point guard like Mike James, Jarrett Jack, and Shelvin Mack. Dario Saric didn’t play well in his start the other night, but I’ll still have interest on FanDuel ($3,700) if he’s listed as a starter again tonight.

Robert Covington remains a boom or bust tournament option. He’s too volatile to trust in cash games, but I always give him a slight bump in uptempo games where he can cause havoc on the defensive end of the floor and then spot up in transition. Joel Embiid had one of his best fantasy outings of his career against the Hawks, scoring 60 fantasy points. Perhaps more importantly, he played 30 minutes. If he continues to see 30 minutes a game, his price will only go up from this point forward.

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (2 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 7.5 (4 of 24)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid (DK)

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (FD & FDRFT), Dario Saric (FD), Ben Simmons, Robert Covington (GPP)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		222.0					Vegas Total		222.0
			Vegas Spread		4.0					Vegas Spread		-4.0
			Implied Team Total		109.0					Implied Team Total		113.0
			Pace Projection +/-		2.0					Pace Projection +/-		-0.7
Projected Starters	Derrick Rose	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Jae Crowder	Kevin Love		Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	14	7	30	17	4		DvP	29	22	17	19	21
DRPM	-0.83	-0.94	0.03	1.54	1.33		DRPM	-2.53	-0.77	1.57	1.37	1.93

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Tristan Thompson (Out)
Iman Shumpert (Out)

The Cavaliers have lost four games in a row and the hits keep on coming. Tristan Thompson is dealing with a calf strain that is expected to sideline him a month and Iman Shumpert is not expected to play in the next couple of games with a knee injury. Cleveland will try to end their slide tonight against the Wizards in a game that features a total of 222 points. If this one lives up to the hype, it could be the best game to target in the slate because both of these teams have condensed rotations and below-average defenses. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 109 points, which is four points higher than their season average.

All I ask tonight is that the Cavaliers keep this game close. I’ve been on the wrong side of too many Cavaliers’ blowouts this season. LeBron James is going to shoulder the load offensively and the Wizards just so happen to be ranked dead last against small forwards this season. James has 40 minute type of upside and he’s scored at least 58 fantasy points in three of his last five games. I might be in the minority, but I actually prefer LeBron over James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight.

I refuse to play Derrick Rose in anything other than a short slate. The injury risk is too great and it’s not like he’s been very productive this season anyway. I do have some interest in Jae Crowder as a sneaky value. With Thompson and Shumpert out, we could finally see Crowder play some big minutes. We know that there is no love lost between he and the Wizards and his price is down on both FanDuel ($4,500) and DraftKings ($4,300). Marcin Gortat is an excellent low post defender, but he’s going to struggle with Kevin Love on the perimeter. With Thompson out, the Cavaliers are forced to play Love more at the five, which actually boosts his fantasy appeal in this one.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.0 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (8 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 4.0 (7 of 24)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.3 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (Cash), Jae Crowder, Jeff Green

Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries

Markieff Morris (Probable)
Otto Porter (Probable)

The Wizards are hoping to kick the Cavaliers while they are down. Cleveland has not only lost their last four games, but they haven’t even been competitive. It’s strange to see a LeBron James led team be ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 29th in defensive efficiency. Don’t get me wrong, I love it because we can finally target players against them on a regular basis. Washington comes into the game as 4-point favorites with an implied total of 113 points, which is the third highest of the slate.

I will be starting a lot of my lineups with LeBron James and John Wall, especially in tournaments. When building GPP lineups, I like to create stories. For instance, if James has a big outing, what needs to happen on the other side of the ball? Well, the game will need to be high scoring and it will need to stay close. So on my LeBron lineups, I will look to pair him with one, two, or three Wizards. Wall is my favorite of the group. His price is below $10k on both FanDuel and DraftKings, he has a true usage rate of 30%, and the Cavaliers are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to his position. Derrick Rose has no chance of slowing Wall down at this point in their careers.

Bradley Beal is coming off of a monster game against the Suns, but is priced up on FanDuel ($7,400). Being so high on Wall, I’ll probably end up being underweight on Beal compared to the field. He’s still in a nice spot, I just prefer Wall and his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. Otto Porter is expected to be back tonight and Markieff Morris is going to make his season debut. This will cut into the minutes of Kelly Oubre, which basically makes him unplayable. Morris isn’t expected to play more than 15-16 minutes, so he’s also an easy fade.

With Kevin Love playing the five for Cleveland, we could see both teams turn to a small ball approach in this one. We could also see Marcin Gortat dominate in the paint. Depending on how the first quarter plays out, I expect Scott Brooks to adjust his rotation. I typically prefer to use Gortat when he’s matched up against a prototypical center, not one that can stretch the floor.

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 112.3 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.0 (3 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 0.7 (13 of 24)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.3 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal

Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Detroit Pistons
			Vegas Total		205.0					Vegas Total		205.0
			Vegas Spread		1.5					Vegas Spread		-1.5
			Implied Team Total		101.8					Implied Team Total		103.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.0					Pace Projection +/-		-2.1
Projected Starters	Malcolm Brogdon	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson		Projected Starters	Reggie Jackson	Avery Bradley	Stanley Johnson	Tobias Harris	Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	10	23	14	5		DvP	23	2	11	9	10
DRPM	-2.98	-1.13	0.19	-0.53	1.37		DRPM	-0.73	-0.79	0.54	1.49	2.02

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

Greg Monroe (Out)

The Bucks are 4-4 to start the season and head to Detroit tonight to take on the Pistons. This is far from an ideal matchup, as the Pistons are ranked 22nd in pace of play and ninth in points allowed per game. The total for this game is low and the Bucks’ implied total of 101.8 points is considerably lower than their season average. We can safely bump the Bucks down a bit as a whole.

The Pistons don’t really have a weakness defensively, other than their two point guards. Malcolm Brogdon has quietly played very well this season, averaging 26 fantasy points and 33 minutes per game. He should be low owned across the industry and he’s shooting guard eligible on DraftKings ($5,200). It will be interesting to see if the Pistons put Avery Bradley on Giannis Antetokounmpo or Khris Middleton. I would expect it to be Middleton, but these matchups I’m not a head coach. Either way, I have no interest in Middleton and will only be using Antetokounmpo in tournaments.

The Pistons like to play big, so John Henson could see another heavy dose of minutes. After his big game against the Hawks, he became the chalk against the Thunder and let everyone down. This led to a huge drop in ownership the next night and he posted a very respectable stat line against the Hornets. If Henson is in the starting lineup again tonight, he makes a viable play on DraftKings ($4,500). He has potential to see minutes in the upper 20s and he is averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute this season.

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.9 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (18 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -3.2 (19 of 24)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon (DK), Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP), John Henson (DK)

Detroit Pistons

Notable Injuries

Jon Leuer (Out)

The Pistons have played some good basketball this season. They have a chance to improve to 6-3 overall with a win over the Bucks. While Milwaukee plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, they are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pistons have an implied total of 103.3 points, which is pretty close to their season average.

Reggie Jackson continues to play well and the only position that the Bucks have struggled to contain so far this season is point guard. With 12 games on the schedule, we have to choose our point guards wisely, but Jackson deserves a look in tournaments. He is averaging 32 fantasy points per game this season with a team-high true usage of 27%. I know that you’ve all had enough of my Avery Bradley love, so I’ll spare you the pain tonight. He’s going to expend a lot of energy defending Khris Middleton and/or Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Stanley Johnson is not the type of player that I like to target. He plays a lot of minutes, but has a low usage rate and relies on peripheral statistics that seem to come and go. If I lose tonight because Johnson has a big game, I will accept it and move on. Tobias Harris may end up defending Antetokounmpo at times. It’s not a great matchup to begin with and the potential foul trouble doesn’t help. With Jon Leuer out, Anthony Tolliver is an intriguing punt off the bench. He could eclipse 20 minutes and he’s only $3,100 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

I’ve recommended Andre Drummond in basically every game so far this season. He is more engaged on both ends of the floor this season and Stan Van Gundy is actually running some of the offense through him. He has a good track record at home throughout his career and he gets to face a Bucks’ defense that is ranked 27th in rebounding differential. Drummond’s price is high enough that I don’t consider him an elite play on FanDuel ($9,300), but I will be loading up my shares of the big man on DraftKings ($8,300). Perhaps this is the 20/20 game that we’ve been waiting for.

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 104.4 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (15 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (17 of 24)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond (DK)

Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (FD), Reggie Jackson (GPP), Anthony Tolliver

Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets							Atlanta Hawks
			Vegas Total		213.5					Vegas Total		213.5
			Vegas Spread		-8.5					Vegas Spread		8.5
			Implied Team Total		111.0					Implied Team Total		102.5
			Pace Projection +/-		1.5					Pace Projection +/-		-0.8
Projected Starters	James Harden	Eric Gordon	Trevor Ariza	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Mike Muscala	Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	23	12	27	27		DvP	13	21	8	7	20
DRPM	-2.53	-1.09	2.66	-0.74	4.86		DRPM	-1.81	-0.13	1.54	-0.16	1.25

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Chris Paul (Out)
Nene Hilario (Questionable)

The Rockets are 6-3 in the standings, but they’ve been a disappointment in daily fantasy. They are only ranked 16th in pace of play and they have actually shown some effort on the defensive side of the ball. This is not the team that we’ve come to know and love over the years. Tonight they travel to Atlanta to take on a Hawks’ team that is ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 29th in rebounding differential. The Rockets have an implied total of 111 points, which is five points above their season average.

James Harden has been a fantasy bust this season, at least at his price point. He is consistently priced above $11,000, yet he is only averaging 47 fantasy points per game. The usage has been there, but he hasn’t shot the ball as well this season and he’s not getting to the line nearly as often. His assist numbers are also down. I love targeting point guards facing Dennis Schroder, but there’s zero chance the Hawks put him on Harden. He’ll likely see some of both Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince. I’m not going to rule Harden out completely, but I would only target him on FanDuel where we are required to play two shooting guards.

More likely than not, Eric Gordon will draw the matchup against the turnstyle that is Mr. Schroder. Gordon doesn’t offer a whole lot in terms of peripheral stats, but he does have a 27% true usage rate. He’s worth a look in tournaments, as is Ryan Anderson. The home/road splits from last season are not a fluke. In six road games this season, Anderson is averaging 28 fantasy points per game. Clint Capela is amazing on a per-minute basis and would see a nice bump if Nene Hilario is ruled out. Keep an eye on his status throughout the day.

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.9 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (6 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1 (5 of 24)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.0 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.8 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – James Harden, Eric Gordon (GPP), Ryan Anderson (GPP), Clint Capela (if Nene is out)

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Ersan Ilyasova (Out)
Malcolm Delaney (Doubtful)

The Hawks put up a fight against the Sixers, but ultimately fell short for their seventh loss in a row. They’ll look to bounce back tonight against the Rockets, who have surprisingly played well defensively this season. Houston is currently ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Even though this doesn’t look like a great spot, the Hawks are still projected to score two points more than their season average.

In theory, the Rockets should really struggle to contain opposing point guards without Chris Paul in the lineup. James Harden and Eric Gordon are not equipped to guard talented point guards, but we’ve seen a number of players struggle against them. The sample is still too small for me to fully trust what I’m seeing, so I will be hopping right back on Dennis Schroder in tournaments and may even play him in cash games on DraftKings ($7,100). It’s hard to find a player with a 31% true usage at his price point.

Outside of Schroder, there isn’t a lot to like on Atlanta. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince are both a little too pricey and there’s always the risk of foul trouble when defending James Harden. Mike Muscala should draw another start for the injured Ersan Ilyasova, but he’s only topped 17 fantasy points one time all season. I would love to play John Collins here, but Mike Budenholzer refuses to play him enough minutes.

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 100.8 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (17 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 1.7 (10 of 24)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (DK)

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (FD)

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