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NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-20 15:57:16

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks – 1:00 PM

Philadelphia 76ers New York Knicks
philadelphianba Vegas Total 202.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 105.8
Team Pace 99.60 Team Pace 96.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Isaiah Canaan Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 8 12 7 9 18 Opp. Season 17 19 30 28 30
Last 3 Weeks 7 9 15 26 15 Last 3 Weeks 13 29 24 11 28

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 5-37 — Road: 2-21 — Last 10: 3-7

The Sixers have won three of their last ten games and have really been a different team since acquiring Ish Smith. Today they head to New York to take on the Knicks. The Sixers are large underdogs as usual, but are projected to score 96.8 points, which is three points higher than their season average.

The Knicks have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking tenth in points allowed per game and ninth in fantasy points allowed per game. This isn’t the best matchup on the board, but it’s not one that we need to go out of our way to avoid either. Nik Stauskas will miss another game, but Jerami Grant is expected to return to the lineup.

Elite Plays

Jahlil Okafor

Okafor’s minutes and production are both trending upward, after averaging 30.9 fantasy points in 31 minutes in his last five games. He draws a favorable matchup today against Robin Lopez and the Knicks, who are ranked 18th against centers.

FD — $6,400 — C
DK — $6,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 21.1
Min/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 30.9

Robert Covington

With Nik Stauskas out, we can project Covington to play close to 30 minutes today against the Knicks. While the matchup may not be great, Covington has been terrific over his last three games, scoring 21, 37, and 25 fantasy points. The best part is that he plays a position (SF) that is tough to fill.

FD — $4,700 — SF
DK — $5,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.1 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 22.0
FP/Game — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 20.2

Secondary Plays

Ishmael Smith

Smith is one of my favorite players to watch, but is more of a secondary fantasy option today. He has been very productive since joining the Sixers, but his price has come up and the Knicks have been tough on point guards.

FD — $6,900 — PG
DK — $7,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 25.8
Min/Game — Season: 25.1 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 35.2

Isaiah Canaan

Assuming Canaan starts again with Nik Stauskas out, he makes for a nice punt option at point guard. In his start the other night against the Blazers, he played 31 minutes and scored 27 fantasy points.

FD — $3,700 — PG
DK — $3,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.7 | Last Five Games: 14.3
Min/Game — Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 15.4
FP/Game — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 10.7

New York Knicks

Record: 20-22 — Home: 11-8 — Last 10: 6-4

The Knicks have won six of their last ten games to climb within two games of .500 on the season. They draw an easy matchup today against the Sixers, who have really struggled on the road. The Knicks are large favorites at home with their team total set at a whopping 105.8 points.

The Sixers have been one of the top teams to target players against in daily fantasy. They are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above and are ranked below average in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. Carmelo Anthony is available to play today. If he is in the starting lineup, that hurts the fantasy production of both Arron Afflalo and Langston Galloway, who were both nice values when Anthony was out.

Elite Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

Porzingis is a little too expensive to be considered an elite play on DraftKings, but I’m more than willing to pay $6,800 for him on FanDuel. He comes into this game in great form, the Sixers are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, and the Sixers allow the most blocked shots of any team in the league.

FD — $6,800 — PF
DK — $7,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 23.4
Min/Game — Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 36.3

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

If you feel confident that Anthony will be able to handle a full workload of minutes, I would bump him up to an elite play. However, I’m a little worried that they may ease him back, especially since they are playing the Sixers.

FD — $8,700 — SF
DK — $8,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 22.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 31.3
FP/Game — Season: 36.9 | Last Five Games: 38.8

Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards – 2:00 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Washington Wizards
portlandnba Vegas Total 212.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 103.8 Team Proj. 108.3
Team Pace 97.30 Team Pace 100.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Kelly Oubre Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 9 26 29 7 10 Opp. Season 24 15 9 22 26
Last 3 Weeks 12 23 26 4 19 Last 3 Weeks 29 20 19 21 11

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 18-25 — Road: 8-16 — Last 10: 5-5

The Blazers have won five of their last ten games, but have struggled on the road this season with an 8-16 record. They travel to Washington to take on the Wizards in what is expected to be a close game. The Blazers are projected to score 103.8 points, which is the seventh highest on the schedule today.

The Wizards have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Blazers are in a favorable matchup and we can safely give their entire offense a boost as a whole.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard

No one was expecting a 30-point beating from the Sixers the other night. We can give Lillard a pass for one bad game, because in his previous five games he had 45, 63, 50, 46, and 53 fantasy points. His matchup against John Wall isn’t great, but I like both point guards in what should be an uptempo game.

FD — $9,100 — PG
DK — $9,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 29.7
Min/Game — Season: 36.4 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 39.5 | Last Five Games: 46.2

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum

McCollum has played well recently (with the exception of the Sixers’ game), averaging 28 fantasy points in his last five games. He draws a terrific matchup against the Wizards, who have been one of the worst teams at defending wing players all season.

FD — $7,800 — SG
DK — $7,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 26.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 28.0

Washington Wizards

Record: 19-20 — Home: 9-12 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games and are now only a single game below .500 on the season. They can change that today with a win over the Blazers at home. The Wizards are projected to score 108.3 points, which is the highest team total in this slate.

The Blazers have struggled on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. With such a high team total, we can give the Wizards’ offense a nice boost as a whole. Otto Porter, Drew Gooden, and Kris Humphries are all questionable for this game.

Elite Plays

John Wall

It would typically be hard to justify paying $10,500 for Wall, but $9,500 on DraftKings is reasonable. He comes into this game in great form, averaging 49.3 over his last five games. He also draws a nice matchup against Damian Lillard and the Blazers, who are ranked 24th against point guards this season.

FD — $10,500 — PG
DK — $9,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.7 | Last Five Games: 26.7
Min/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 41.5 | Last Five Games: 49.3

Secondary Plays

Marcin Gortat

Gortat went straight from the hospital bed to the court and he didn’t show any rust against the Celtics, scoring 37 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. He is a safe center option today against the Blazers, who have been one of the worst teams against the position this season.

FD — $7,000 — C
DK — $7,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 14.3
Min/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 33.1

Utah Jazz at Charlotte Hornets – 2:00 PM

Utah Jazz Charlotte Hornets
utahnba Vegas Total 185.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 185.5
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 94.0 Team Proj. 91.5
Team Pace 93.50 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Trey Lyles Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 16 18 10 27 12 Opp. Season 6 7 6 4 5
Last 3 Weeks 24 15 27 25 4 Last 3 Weeks 3 24 2 9 8

Utah Jazz

Record: 18-22 — Road: 6-13 — Last 10: 5-5

The Jazz have won five of their last ten games and are now only four games below .500 on the season. They head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets in what should be a slow-paced, low-scoring game. The Jazz are only projected to score 94 points, which is the third lowest on the board today.

The Hornets may not be the best defensive team in the NBA, but they are ranked right around the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With such a low team total, this could be a spot to avoid the Jazz altogether. Derrick Favors is listed as questionable once again.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gobert

We have been waiting for a breakout game from Gobert and all it took was a matchup against the Lakers. In 30 minutes, he put up 18 points, 18 rebounds, and five blocks. It was a monster outing from Gobert. He could be worth a look in tournaments today against the Hornets, who are undersized down low.

FD — $6,900 — C
DK — $6,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.3 | Last Five Games: 10.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 28.7

Rodney Hood

Hood is a bit expensive on DraftKings, but could be worth a look on FanDuel. He has played fairly well over his last five games, averaging 23 fantasy points in 30 minutes per contest.

FD — $5,100 — SG
DK — $5,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.2 | Last Five Games: 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 30.0 | Last Five Games: 30.1
FP/Game — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 23.0

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 18-22 — Home: 14-8 — Last 10: 1-9

The Hornets have lost nine of their last ten games. It’s crazy to think that they were 17-13 only a few weeks ago. They have a decent chance of picking up a win today though, as they host the visiting Jazz. This is a bad matchup for fantasy production, as the Hornets are only projected to score 91.5 points.

With Rudy Gobert on the floor, the Jazz are one of the top defenses in the NBA. They are also the slowest-paced team in the NBA. That is a lethal combination when it comes to daily fantasy. If you look at the DvP rankings above, you will see that the Jazz are ranked seventh or better against all five positions on the floor. I’m pulling a complete Hornets’ fade in this one.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies – 2:30 PM

New Orleans Pelicans Memphis Grizzlies
neworleansnba Vegas Total 195.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 95.8 Team Proj. 99.8
Team Pace 98.70 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tyreke Evans Eric Gordon Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj. Starter Mario Chalmers Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 7 4 22 11 4 Opp. Season 19 25 13 19 29
Last 3 Weeks 2 8 13 5 1 Last 3 Weeks 5 14 18 10 24

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 13-26 — Road: 5-17 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pelicans have lost six of their last ten games, but are playing better than they did earlier in the season. They draw a difficult matchup today against the Grizzlies in Memphis. The Pelicans are only projected to score 95.8 points. Not only is that the fourth lowest total on the board, but it is also 5.7 points lower than their season average.

The Grizzlies have been much better defensively over the last month of play. They are now ranked sixth in points allowed per game and eighth in fantasy points allowed per game. While this is a poor matchup overall, there are two fantasy options that could be nice plays in tournaments.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Anthony Davis

Davis is completely off of my radar in cash games, but could be worth a look in tournaments. I always like using power forwards against Zach Randolph because 1. he gets his shot blocked often and 2. he doesn’t stray too far from the rim. In their first meeting this season, Davis had 17 points, 14 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 9 blocks.

FD — $10,300 — PF
DK — $10,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 25.2
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 25.3
FP/Game — Season: 43.3 | Last Five Games: 29.1

Tyreke Evans

Evans is in the same boat as his teammate, Anthony Davis. While I don’t want to target him in cash games, he has that upside and low ownership that we are looking for in tournaments.

FD — $7,300 — PG
DK — $7,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 29.3
FP/Game — Season: 32.9 | Last Five Games: 30.5

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 23-19 — Home: 15-7 — Last 10: 7-3

The Grizzlies have won seven of their last ten games and are now 23-19 overall. They draw a favorable fantasy matchup against the Pelicans in what will be a pace-up game for the Grizzlies. Memphis is projected to score 99.8 points, which is 3.6 points higher than their season average.

The Pelicans have really struggled defensively this season, ranking 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Grizzlies have a relatively high team total and deserve a small boost as a whole. Mike Conley has been upgraded to questionable. If he is unable to suit up, Mario Chalmers becomes a strong play at home against the Pelicans.

Elite Plays

Marc Gasol

Gasol has been beasting over his last five games, averaging 37.9 fantasy points in 38.3 minutes per contest. Omer Asik has always been known as a good defender, but that hasn’t translated when it comes to fantasy production for the Pelicans’ opponents. They have allowed the second most fantasy points to centers.

FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 23.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 38.3
FP/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 37.9

Secondary Plays

Zach Randolph

Prior to this season, targeting power forwards against Anthony Davis was strictly taboo. However, New Orleans is ranked 19th against the position this season. Randolph may not have the highest ceiling, but he has a high floor and is a safe play in cash games.

FD — $6,400 — PF
DK — $6,500 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 21.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.9 | Last Five Games: 30.1
FP/Game — Season: 26.3 | Last Five Games: 29.7

Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons – 3:30 PM

Chicago Bulls Detroit Pistons
chicagonba Vegas Total 202.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 99.8 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 98.80 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 14 10 2 21 8 Opp. Season 27 11 23 14 24
Last 3 Weeks 23 5 1 12 17 Last 3 Weeks 28 13 21 20 9

Chicago Bulls

Record: 23-16 — Road: 7-9 — Last 10: 6-4

The Bulls have won six of their last ten games and are now 23-16 on the season. They head to Detroit to take on the Pistons, who are coming off of a monster win against the Warriors. This is a poor matchup for fantasy production. The Bulls are only projected to score 99.8 points, which is considerably lower than their season average.

The Pistons have been terrific defensively this season, ranking eighth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. If you are looking at their first meeting this season, take the numbers with a grain of salt. If you remember, that game went into quadruple overtime. Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich have both been ruled out.

Elite Plays

Taj Gibson

Anytime one of the Bulls’ bigs is out, Gibson is an auto play for me at power forward. His minutes go from being in the mid-20’s to being in the mid-30’s. He has played well in the games that Joakim Noah has been out this season and the Bulls will need him to play big minutes against this Pistons’ frontcourt.

FD — $4,800 — PF
DK — $5,800 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.8 | Last Five Games: 10.8
Min/Game — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 27.3
FP/Game — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 16.8

Secondary Plays

Jimmy Butler

Hopefully you read the Grind Down the other night and faded Butler. He was coming off of that monster game against the Sixers in which he played 47 minutes. It was a good spot to fade him. He is fade-able again today, as the Pistons are stout defensively. However, I don’t mind using him on DraftKings at a price of $8,500.

FD — $9,300 — SG
DK — $8,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 24.8
Min/Game — Season: 38.2 | Last Five Games: 40.7
FP/Game — Season: 38.3 | Last Five Games: 44.9

Pau Gasol

Gasol’s production has been down recently, but with Joakim Noah out for at least a month, his minutes will likely go back to the 32-34 range. That may not seem like a big boost, but it does make a difference when you average well over a fantasy point per minute.

FD — $8,600 — PF
DK — $8,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 37.8 | Last Five Games: 32.9

Detroit Pistons

Record: 22-18 — Home: 14-6 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pistons have won five of their last ten games, including a big win over the Warriors at home the other night. They host the visiting Bulls in what is a slightly favorable matchup. The Pistons are projected to score 102.8 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.

The Bulls are an efficient team defensively, but their quick pace hurts their ranks in both points allowed per game (15th) and fantasy points allowed per game (24th). Brandon Jennings is questionable for today’s game. If he is unable to suit up, Reggie Jackson could see a few extra minutes running the point.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

Drummond’s production has been down a bit recently, but his price has come down under $9,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He deserves strong consideration today against the Bulls, who are ranked 24th against centers.

FD — $8,800 — C
DK — $8,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 20.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 42.1 | Last Five Games: 35.2

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

I’m tempted to list Jackson as an elite play here, but I will wait on the status of Brandon Jennings. If we can projected Jackson to play 32+ minutes, he would become a terrific option. On the season, the Bulls have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to point guards.

FD — $7,200 — PG
DK — $7,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.3 | Last Five Games: 24.5
Min/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 30.7

Marcus Morris

Morris is coming off of his best game in over a month. His price is still down and hopefully he can parlay that outing into another strong game against the Bulls. He should see 35+ minutes, which makes him a nice value play at small forward.

FD — $5,100 — SF
DK — $5,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 13.3
Min/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 36.4
FP/Game — Season: 24.1 | Last Five Games: 21.5

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious