NBA Grind Down: Saturday, February 4th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 218.0 | Vegas Total | 218.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 105.3 | Team Total | 112.8 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.3 | Pace +/- | 1.3 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Jrue Holiday | Buddy Hield | Solomon Hill | Terrence Jones | Anthony Davis | Proj. Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 3 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 5 | Adj. DvP | 27 | 17 | 18 | 27 | 16 | |
DRPM | -0.25 | -0.62 | 1.10 | 1.53 | 1.41 | DRPM | 1.15 | -2.74 | 1.04 | 0.30 | 3.07 |
New Orleans Pelicans
- Notable Injuries:
N/A
- New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.3 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (12 of 20)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (8 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.3 (10 of 20)
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.1 (10 of 30)
The Pelicans aren’t listing Anthony Davis on the injury report, and he’s coming off three monster performances. He’s averaged about 40 minutes in his last three games, and that’s just setting him up for injury, again. Still, if he’s going to play 40 minutes and faces the Wizards, he should be able to exceed value. On a full 10-game slate, Davis’s ownership might be slightly lower than it should be. Tyreke Evans continues to be on a minutes limit after his ankle swelled up and he’s not a viable fantasy option. Jrue Holiday has also been playing monster minutes and is averaging 46.2 FanDuel points over his last six games. He’ll be a solid cash game option since his salary has spiked on FanDuel, not leaving a ton of potential profit but showing us a safe floor. His salary actually fell $300 on DraftKings, making him an elite option there.
Terrence Jones started their previous game and played 27 minutes. Terrence Jones is simply a GPP play on a full slate. E’Twaun Moore has been getting consistent minutes off the bench over his last two games but is simply a GPP play due to his inconsistent role. Solomon Hill has been starting at SF and has played over 33 minutes in three of his last four games. He does not have a ton of upside but the minutes have been there.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jrue Holiday | $8,000 | $7,400 | 1.02 | 31.5 | 7.0 | 32.2 | 12.3 | 27.0% | 1.0% | 3 | -0.25 |
Buddy Hield | $3,600 | $3,200 | 0.69 | 20.2 | 3.3 | 13.9 | -1.2 | 20.4% | -4.5% | 3 | -0.62 |
Solomon Hill | $4,400 | $3,600 | 0.54 | 27.8 | 4.6 | 14.9 | -0.3 | 11.5% | 0.4% | 12 | 1.10 |
Terrence Jones | $5,500 | $5,500 | 0.95 | 24.4 | -0.6 | 23.1 | -6.0 | 20.5% | -1.6% | 26 | 1.53 |
Anthony Davis | $11,200 | $10,400 | 1.41 | 36.0 | 4.7 | 50.7 | 6.3 | 31.0% | -1.0% | 5 | 1.41 |
Tyreke Evans | $4,900 | $4,800 | 1.16 | 17.7 | 0.3 | 20.5 | -12.5 | 30.7% | -9.0% | 3 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday (DK)
Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (FD), Terrence Jones (GPP)
Washington Wizards
- Notable Injuries:
Ian Mahinmi (out)
Danuel House (out)
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.9 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 112.8 (4 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 5.8 (3 of 20)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (15 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 1.3 (4 of 20)
- New Orleans Pelicans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 211.8 (28 of 30)
John Wall and the Wizards have been playing fantastic ball and have won their last 15 home games. With the second-highest team total on the slate, Wall is their primary option and should be considered an elite play tonight. Bradley Beal has averaged 33.27 FanDuel points over his last seven starts, and he’ll be a solid option as well against the Pelicans. Otto Porter continues to be volatile and small forward is not their most exploitable position. Markieff Morris has been a model of consistency, averaging 37.29 DraftKings points over his last 14 games. He must really be sticking to his new year’s resolution. Keef is a strong option again tonight. Marcin Gortat has also picked up his play lately, averaging 37.72 FanDuel points over his last four games. He’s still not playing the heavy minutes he was earlier in the season, but he’s a lock for 30 minutes. Kelly Oubre is a lock for 20+ minutes but he’s far from consistent. I can’t take a shot at him on a 10-game slate. Jason Smith is a lock for 15 minutes and would need Gortat to get into foul trouble to really exceed value.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Wall | $10,600 | $10,200 | 1.23 | 36.2 | 1.0 | 44.6 | 4.2 | 34.6% | -0.9% | 27 | 1.15 |
Bradley Beal | $7,000 | $6,900 | 0.92 | 34.2 | 0.6 | 31.5 | 3.6 | 26.6% | -0.7% | 17 | -2.74 |
Otto Porter | $6,400 | $6,200 | 0.83 | 33.6 | 0.2 | 28.0 | -2.2 | 15.2% | -2.4% | 18 | 1.04 |
Markieff Morris | $7,200 | $6,900 | 0.84 | 31.9 | 3.6 | 26.7 | 8.6 | 20.5% | 2.1% | 27 | 0.30 |
Marcin Gortat | $6,700 | $6,100 | 0.85 | 34.5 | -3.1 | 29.3 | 7.2 | 14.0% | 3.1% | 16 | 3.07 |
Kelly Oubre | $3,500 | $3,400 | 0.64 | 20.4 | 5.1 | 13.1 | -2.7 | 14.1% | -4.1% | 18 | N/A |
Elite Plays -John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat
Secondary Plays – Otto Porter
Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks – 7:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 207.5 | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 100.0 | Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.9 | Pace +/- | -0.4 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Aaron Gordon | Serge Ibaka | Nikola Vucevic | Proj. Starter | Dennis Schroder | Tim Hardaway | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Dwight Howard | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 17 | 19 | 20 | 9 | 4 | Adj. DvP | 28 | 18 | 21 | 8 | 23 | |
DRPM | -2.70 | -1.37 | -0.51 | 4.24 | 2.32 | DRPM | -0.55 | -0.75 | -0.99 | 0.44 | 1.58 |
Orlando Magic
- Notable Injuries:
Jodie Meeks (out)
C.J. Wilcox (out)
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 100.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.0 (18 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.1 (16 of 20)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (19 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.9 (7 of 20)
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.5 (14 of 30)
The Magic won last night against Toronto and travel to Atlanta for tonight’s tilt. Serge Ibaka has been on a tear over his last three games, averaging 39.06 FanDuel points and over 35 minutes. He’s $6.2 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but we don’t like to attack the Hawks with power forwards. Paul Millsap has an elite 4.24 DPRM and can guard Ibaka anywhere on the floor. Nikola Vucevic has also been playing heavy minutes over his last four games but only played about 30 minutes last night. He’ll need to get over 32 minutes to really exceed value, and that will be tough considering the Hawks rank fourth against centers in DvP and the fact that Dwight Howard owns a 2.32 DPRM.
Evan Fournier had himself a game last night, playing 36 minutes and scoring 40 DraftKings points. He’s still only $5k on DraftKings and is a high floor/high ceiling play here. We like to attack the Hawks with point guards, so Elfrid Payton enters the discussion. Payton has played over 30 minutes in nine of his last 12 games. He’s extremely volatile but did have one of his best fantasy performances of the season against the Hawks. Aaron Gordon had one good game and one bad game against them and just bottomed out last night against the Raptors. If I lose to a GPP team that has Gordon, so be it.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elfrid Payton | $6,700 | $6,000 | 0.94 | 29.3 | 3.2 | 27.6 | 2.2 | 25.7% | -1.1% | 17 | -2.70 |
Evan Fournier | $5,000 | $5,000 | 0.78 | 32.8 | -6.6 | 25.5 | -10.3 | 23.9% | 0.0% | 19 | -1.37 |
Aaron Gordon | $4,800 | $4,700 | 0.77 | 27.6 | 0.9 | 21.2 | -6.5 | 19.7% | -3.6% | 20 | -0.51 |
Serge Ibaka | $6,200 | $6,200 | 0.93 | 30.3 | 5.4 | 28.0 | 4.8 | 20.1% | -0.7% | 9 | 4.24 |
Nikola Vucevic | $7,200 | $7,000 | 1.14 | 28.3 | 7.9 | 32.2 | 10.5 | 25.1% | -0.3% | 4 | 2.32 |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier
Secondary Plays – Nikola Vucevic (GPP), Serge Ibaka (GPP)
Atlanta Hawks
- Notable Injuries:
Thabo Sefolosha (questionable)
Mike Dunleavy (questionable)
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.5 (8 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.7 (5 of 20)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (12 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.4 (12 of 20)
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.1 (22 of 30)
Dwight Howard got his revenge against the Rockets on Thursday night, and we should go back to the well here tonight against his other former team. He’s coming off a monster 24-point, 23-rebound performance and is averaging 38.75 DraftKings points against the Magic this season. He’s only $7.2k on DK and $7.4k on FD, meaning there’s definitely some potential profit to be had. Millsap has not played as well as Howard against the Magic this season and is a GPP option more than a cash game lock, especially considering he’s played really poorly in three of his last four games. Dennis Schroder has also struggled in three of his last four games, but he’s pretty cheap and has not been this low in salary on FanDuel since early December, basically at the point where he started his run. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been playing great in the absence of Thabo Sefolosha, but we’ll want to confirm Sefolosha is out before plugging in THJ. Hardaway, Jr. is a scoring-dependent guard who needs 30+ minutes to exceed value. Mike Dunleavy got hurt in last night’s game, and his status for today is also uncertain.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dennis Schroder | $6,100 | $5,900 | 0.96 | 31.0 | 2.9 | 29.7 | -7.3 | 29.9% | 0.5% | 28 | -0.55 |
Tim Hardaway | $5,200 | $5,100 | 0.76 | 23.8 | 15.2 | 18.1 | 14.9 | 22.4% | -0.4% | 18 | -0.75 |
Kent Bazemore | $4,900 | $5,000 | 0.76 | 27.5 | 7.2 | 20.8 | 3.9 | 20.9% | -4.3% | 21 | -0.99 |
Paul Millsap | $7,900 | $7,500 | 1.06 | 34.4 | 3.3 | 36.3 | 3.7 | 25.1% | 0.5% | 8 | 0.44 |
Dwight Howard | $7,400 | $7,200 | 1.12 | 29.6 | 3.9 | 33.1 | 6.3 | 18.5% | -0.9% | 23 | 1.58 |
Elite Plays – Dwight Howard, Dennis Schroder
Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 210.5 | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 103.0 | Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 1.0 | Pace +/- | -2.1 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Jon Leuer | Andre Drummond | Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | C.J. Miles | Paul George | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 16 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 20 | Adj. DvP | 25 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 17 | |
DRPM | -0.21 | -0.80 | -0.30 | 1.83 | 2.01 | DRPM | -2.17 | 0.17 | 0.66 | 1.07 | 1.65 |
Detroit Pistons
- Notable Injuries:
N/A
- Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 100.8 (25 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.0 (14 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (8 of 20)
Pace of Play: 96.6 (26 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 1.0 (6 of 20)
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.1 (23 of 30)
The Pistons travel to Indiana after defeating the Timberwolves last night. Marcus Morris, Jon Leuer, and Andre Drummond did most of the damage, and it’s fair to want to go back to the well with Drummond. The Pacers rank 27th in rebounding differential 20th against centers. Jon Leuer is also so cheap and played 35 minutes last night. He has not played that many minutes since early January, so it is possible that he’s finally completely back from his injury. He does not have to do much to exceed value on DraftKings. Tobias Harris only played 22 minutes last night and could have been saved for tonight. His salary has some potential profit, but he’s simply a GPP play as long as he’s coming off the bench. Maybe he’ll turn it around since he was played well off the bench earlier this season.
Marcus Morris is a streaky player and he had his first 50-fantasy-point game on DraftKings last night. He’s a lock for 34+ minutes and is still only $5k on DraftKings. As I mentioned last night, Ish Smith continues to deliver solid fantasy performances and his salary has not moved despite his going for 7.3x on DK last night. He played 20 minutes and looks like a lock for that role. Reggie Jackson has not played 30 minutes in his last three games. Coincidently, since Smith has taken off. Get on the train before Ish Smith is $4k.
h3. Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reggie Jackson | $6,100 | $6,000 | 0.93 | 29.3 | -2.7 | 27.2 | -4.5 | 31.1% | -1.2% | 16 | -0.21 |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $6,000 | $5,900 | 0.73 | 33.7 | 2.5 | 24.5 | 4.4 | 20.0% | 3.2% | 14 | -0.80 |
Marcus Morris | $5,100 | $5,000 | 0.70 | 32.8 | 2.2 | 22.9 | -4.8 | 19.8% | -2.7% | 15 | -0.30 |
Jon Leuer | $4,600 | $4,000 | 0.81 | 26.7 | -4.2 | 21.6 | -7.0 | 16.7% | -3.1% | 21 | 1.83 |
Andre Drummond | $8,500 | $7,600 | 1.18 | 30.8 | 3.1 | 36.4 | 12.1 | 21.9% | 1.6% | 20 | 2.01 |
Tobias Harris | $5,900 | $5,500 | 0.81 | 32.7 | -4.3 | 26.5 | -0.9 | 21.3% | 0.9% | 21 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Jon Leuer
Secondary Plays – Marcus Morris, Ish Smith, Reggie Jackson
Indiana Pacers
- Notable Injuries:
Thaddeus Young (questionable)
Rodney Stuckey (questionable)
Rakeem Christmas (out)
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.5 (8 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 1.6 (13 of 20)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (11 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -2.1 (17 of 20)
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (9 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.5 (7 of 30)
The Pacers host the Pistons after winning in Brooklyn last night. Paul George has scored over 50 fantasy points in two of his last three games and should remain a high-floor option. The Pacers are projected to score 1.6 points over their season average but play in a pace-down game. Jeff Teague continued his wizardry against the Nets last night and is averaging 38.8 DraftKings points against the Pistons this season. Thaddeus Young suffered a wrist injury last night and is questionable for tonight’s game. Lavoy Allen will likely start if Young is ruled out, but the team has not said anything official at this time outside of Young being questionable. Rodney Stuckey was ruled out then listed as questionable, but he’s not a viable option even if he is available. C.J. Miles played 30 minutes last night and looks like his role is a lock. He’ll be a high-floor option as well tonight but will likely have to deal with KCP and the tough sixth-ranked DvP matchup. Al Jefferson has also played well in his limited time over the last two games and according to CourtIQ, Al Jefferson is second on the team in terms of usage with Young, Stuckey, and Christmas off.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeff Teague | $7,600 | $7,500 | 1.05 | 32.6 | 5.1 | 34.3 | 1.9 | 26.5% | -5.3% | 25 | -2.17 |
C.J. Miles | $4,100 | $4,100 | 0.73 | 22.5 | 4.3 | 16.4 | -1.8 | 17.7% | -5.2% | 6 | 0.17 |
Paul George | $8,700 | $8,100 | 1.02 | 35.7 | 2.6 | 36.3 | -0.1 | 27.4% | 0.9% | 14 | 0.66 |
Thaddeus Young | $5,500 | $5,400 | 0.78 | 31.3 | -1.9 | 24.3 | -1.1 | 15.9% | 0.8% | 4 | 1.07 |
Myles Turner | $6,700 | $6,800 | 1.03 | 30.4 | 3.9 | 31.2 | 0.9 | 19.5% | -4.4% | 17 | 1.65 |
Monta Ellis | $3,500 | $3,200 | 0.63 | 27.3 | -9.9 | 17.2 | -8.4 | 17.0% | -3.1% | 6 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Paul George, Jeff Teague
Secondary Plays – Al Jefferson (if Young is out), C.J. Miles
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 208.0 | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 8.5 | Vegas Spread | -8.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 99.8 | Team Total | 108.3 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -1.4 | Pace +/- | 1.3 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | T.J. McConnell | Nik Stauskas | Dario Saric | Ersan Ilyasova | Jahlil Okafor | Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Rodney McGruder | Dion Waiters | Okaro White | Hassan Whiteside | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 6 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 8 | Adj. DvP | 9 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 29 | |
DRPM | -2.35 | -1.04 | -0.12 | -0.07 | 1.81 | DRPM | 0.63 | -0.68 | -1.63 | 0.53 | -0.89 |
Philadelphia 76ers
- Notable Injuries:
Joel Embiid (out)
Robert Covington (questionable)
Nerlens Noel (probable)
Jerryd Bayless (out)
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 100.9 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.8 (19 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (17 of 20)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (8 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -1.4 (14 of 20)
- Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.4 (6 of 30)
The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid for another game tonight. Jahlil Okafor is starting in his place and Nerlens Noel is expected to be available off the bench. Robert Covington is listed as questionable the Sixers have already listed their starting five and Gerald Henderson is starting at small forward. That does not bode well for the prospects for Covington, but we should have another update later today. Henderson did not even play against the Spurs but should play 28+ minutes tonight if Covington is out. Henderson plays well when the games remain close but the Sixers are one of the largest underdogs on the slate today. Still, he’s super cheap and deserves to be on your radar if he plays 28+ minutes.
Jahlil Okafor will make his fourth consecutive start. He has not played over 26 minutes in those games, but his minutes have steadily increased over the last three. Okafor is a risk for foul trouble against Hassan Whiteside, but since he’s playing limited minutes to begin with, he should be able to exceed value in this matchup. T.J. McConnell continues to see 30+ minutes but his play has steadily declined with Embiid out of the lineup. Ersan Ilyasova and Dario Saric will be the primary beneficiaries of Embiid being out and Ilyasova played 39 minutes against the Spurs.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T.J. McConnell | $5,700 | $5,200 | 0.82 | 23.9 | 7.4 | 19.6 | 4.1 | 19.5% | -2.3% | 6 | -2.35 |
Nik Stauskas | $3,600 | $3,700 | 0.58 | 26.3 | 4.2 | 15.3 | 1.6 | 16.1% | -0.6% | 4 | -1.04 |
Dario Saric | $4,400 | $4,800 | 0.80 | 23.7 | 5.4 | 19.0 | 5.7 | 21.7% | 2.6% | 16 | -0.12 |
Ersan Ilyasova | $6,100 | $6,500 | 0.91 | 27.3 | 3.6 | 24.8 | 4.0 | 22.3% | -1.0% | 11 | -0.07 |
Jahlil Okafor | $4,600 | $4,500 | 0.88 | 23.0 | 0.8 | 20.2 | 0.7 | 21.9% | 5.7% | 8 | 1.81 |
Elite Plays – Ersan Ilyasova, Dario Saric
Secondary Plays – Gerald Henderson, Jahlil Okafor (GPP)
Miami Heat
- Notable Injuries:
Josh Richardson (out)
Justise Winslow (out)
Josh McRoberts (out)
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 99.6 (28 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.3 (7 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 8.7 (1 of 20)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (22 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 1.3 (4 of 20)
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.4 (16 of 30)
The Heat are on a nine-game winning streak and will likely make it 10 games tonight. Hassan Whiteside finally had a GOATSide game against the Hawks and will be a strong GPP play against the Sixers. He has averaged about 30 minutes in his last three games and seems to be over his ankle injury that caused him to miss one game last week. He too volatile for cash games but definitely should be considered for GPPs. Goran Dragic has played really well over their nine-game winning streak but Tyler Johnson is back in the mix and Dragic’s minutes have been steady declining over the last four games. James Johnson continues to play well off the bench and is averaging 34.65 FanDuel over his last four games. Johnson is a lock for 30+ minutes keeping his floor high and also leaving some potential upside. Dion Waiters has also been playing really well over this nine-game winning streak and also seems like a lock for 32+ minutes. He’ll be a high-floor option that always has the potential to go off. Still, the upside is not that great since his salary has spiked and he’s yet to score over 45 fantasy points this season.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goran Dragic | $8,100 | $7,400 | 0.97 | 34.5 | -2.6 | 33.4 | 4.1 | 29.0% | 0.4% | 9 | 0.63 |
Rodney McGruder | $3,700 | $3,100 | 0.52 | 25.8 | 3.3 | 13.4 | 3.4 | 11.9% | 2.0% | 25 | -0.68 |
Dion Waiters | $7,200 | $6,900 | 0.84 | 30.7 | 2.6 | 25.8 | 9.4 | 27.0% | 1.4% | 10 | -1.63 |
Okaro White | $3,500 | $3,000 | 0.57 | 17.2 | -5.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 9.4% | 1.8% | 5 | 0.53 |
Hassan Whiteside | $8,800 | $7,600 | 1.13 | 33.2 | -3.4 | 37.6 | -5.7 | 21.3% | -1.4% | 29 | -0.89 |
James Johnson | $6,100 | $5,800 | 0.92 | 26.2 | 3.1 | 24.2 | 11.6 | 22.3% | 1.3% | 5 | N/A |
Tyler Johnson | $5,800 | $5,100 | 0.86 | 30.7 | -4.9 | 26.5 | -9.4 | 21.9% | -1.1% | 9 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside (GPP), Tyler Johnson (GPP), James Johnson
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks – 8:30 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 219.5 | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -6.5 | Vegas Spread | 6.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 113.0 | Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.7 | Pace +/- | 0.5 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | Iman Shumpert | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | Proj. Starter | Brandon Jennings | Courtney Lee | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Joakim Noah | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 13 | 28 | 13 | 28 | 15 | Adj. DvP | 24 | 26 | 27 | 12 | 7 | |
DRPM | -2.45 | -0.62 | -1.72 | 1.62 | 1.26 | DRPM | -1.41 | -0.29 | 0.83 | 1.81 | 2.36 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Notable Injuries:
Kevin Love (probable)
J.R. Smith (out)
Chris Andersen (out)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 113.0 (3 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (7 of 20)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (14 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.7 (8 of 20)
- New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.9 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.1 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.7 (24 of 30)
The Cavs will visit the Knicks for the second time this year, and everyone knows that LeBron James loves playing in New York. James’ salary has spiked to a season-high $11.5k on FanDuel but is an extremely enticing $10.5k on DraftKings. With so many games on the slate and Kevin Love expected to return the potential profit on James is not that high. Still, he’s an elite cash game play with a high floor since he is a lock for 34+ minutes. Considering Kevin Love is expected to return after a two-game absence, he’ll be the under-owned option from this team. He should play 34+ minutes as well, but since he’s been dealing with a back injury for some time, he’s not safe for cash games. He’ll be an elite GPP upside play considering his name has been directly linked to Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks.
Kyrie Irving has played well in the absence of Love but his salary is also near its season-high. Since Derrick Rose is not expected to play, Irving should be able to exploit Brandon Jennings. Still, he’s more of a high-floor play than an elite upside option with his salary sitting at $8.2k on DraftKings and matching a season-high $8.6k on FanDuel. Iman Shumpert has been playing well as a starter and is averaging 21.58 FanDuel points in his last 10 starts. He’ll return to face his former team for the first time as a starter this season should also be a lock for 30+ minutes. While his salary has spiked to the point where it matches his production, he could still exceed value. Tristan Thompson has scored over 40 fantasy points in two of his last three games, but he rarely is consistent and is simply a GPP play tonight considering the Knicks are sixth in rebounding differential.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyrie Irving | $8,600 | $8,200 | 1.06 | 35.1 | -2.3 | 37.1 | 1.3 | 31.4% | 3.2% | 13 | -2.45 |
Iman Shumpert | $4,200 | $4,100 | 0.61 | 25.2 | 5.3 | 15.4 | 5.0 | 14.1% | 1.0% | 28 | -0.62 |
LeBron James | $11,500 | $10,500 | 1.27 | 37.5 | -1.3 | 47.8 | 5.2 | 33.0% | -0.9% | 13 | -1.72 |
Kevin Love | $7,600 | $8,000 | 1.15 | 31.5 | -19.2 | 36.2 | -24.1 | 25.8% | -6.6% | 28 | 1.62 |
Tristan Thompson | $5,400 | $5,000 | 0.79 | 29.0 | 3.6 | 22.8 | 10.5 | 10.5% | 3.6% | 15 | 1.26 |
Channing Frye | $4,500 | $5,100 | 0.82 | 18.5 | 0.1 | 15.2 | 6.4 | 18.6% | 2.8% | 28 | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James (DK), Kevin Love (GPP if he plays)
Secondary Plays – LeBron James (FD), Kyrie Irving, Iman Shumpert, Tristan Thompson (GPP)
New York Knicks
- Notable Injuries:
Derrick Rose (questionable)
Lance Thomas (questionable)
- New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 106.1 (12 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.5 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.4 (15 of 20)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (13 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.5 (9 of 20)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.9 (19 of 30)
The Knicks have not been a consistent squad this season but did win against the Nets on Wednesday. Carmelo Anthony only played 27 minutes in that game and should be plenty rested. According to CourtIQ, Anthony sees a 6.7 percent increase in usage with Rose and Thomas off the court this season. He’ll have to deal with LeBron James for most of the night, but the trade rumors could be fueling his fire tonight. His salary does not offer a ton of flexbility and he’s been far from consistent but he’s a solid GPP play on national TV. Kristaps Porzingis finally had his breakout game and only needed 25 minutes of court time to do his damage against the Nets.
Porzingis should see 30+ minutes tonight and remains a high-upside play since his salary has dropped considerably from where it was earlier in the season. Jeff Hornacek said he will be getting Willy Hernangomez into the rotation some more, but FanDuel has gotten hip and spiked his salary, removing most of the potential profit. He’s still only $4.5k on DraftKings and is the better play over there. Brandon Jennings has been a high-floor option since Rose has been out but DraftKings has spiked his salary to $6k. There might not be a ton of potential profit here, so he’s a better cash game play rather than a tournament option. Justin Holiday has played well in four of his last six games and will remain a GPP play as long as Rose is out.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brandon Jennings | $6,500 | $6,000 | 0.78 | 24.3 | 20.2 | 19.0 | 16.3 | 22.5% | -1.8% | 24 | -1.41 |
Courtney Lee | $4,600 | $4,200 | 0.60 | 31.3 | 4.5 | 18.7 | 3.2 | 14.1% | 0.9% | 26 | -0.29 |
Carmelo Anthony | $8,100 | $7,800 | 1.05 | 33.8 | 1.0 | 35.4 | -0.2 | 29.5% | 6.3% | 27 | 0.83 |
Kristaps Porzingis | $6,600 | $6,700 | 0.97 | 33.4 | -5.6 | 32.6 | -0.8 | 23.3% | 4.7% | 12 | 1.81 |
Joakim Noah | $4,000 | $3,500 | 0.93 | 22.6 | 0.5 | 20.9 | -2.7 | 14.0% | -3.0% | 7 | 2.36 |
Willy Hernangomez | $5,300 | $4,500 | 0.99 | 14.1 | 5.8 | 14.0 | 12.6 | 19.2% | 2.6% | 7 | N/A |