NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 31st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards – 3:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | Vegas Total | |||||||||||
Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.0 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 14 | 14 | 18 | 3 | 6 | DvP | 17 | 16 | 26 | 16 | 16 | |
DRPM Rat. | 12 | 14 | 2 | 20 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 9 |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have nothing to play for and are going to continue to give their players normal rotations. They are technically still in the playoff hunt as well so I would expect them to continue with what they have been doing. They get a matchup against the Wizards, who will likely be playing with John Wall for the first time in a while. This game is on the two-game slate and I wanted to note that I will be breaking this game down from that perspective.
On this two-game slate there are only four centers you can really play. Dwight Howard is one of them and is in play. If you are paying up at center I prefer Andre Drummond without Blake Griffin, but Howard still is a fine option. He gets a matchup against his former teammate Gortat. It’s not the greatest matchup on paper but Dwight has been stellar this season and he likes to go back and fourth with his friend. There could be a little narrative here with Dwight. He is a secondary play for me on this slate but not my favorite spends up option. On a site like DraftKings and enough value in play I could see spending up on both Dwight and Drummond possibly. Kemba Walker is another play that I would look to get exposure to. It just seems on this slate that we will have a lack of spend up options.
If I am forced to pick between spending on John Wall or Kemba Walker at a similar price, give me Walker over John Wall in his first game back from injury. On DraftKings, it is a tougher call with Wall $1000 cheaper and it depends on if he will be on a minute’s restriction or not. Nicolas Batum was great before his injury but since then has been struggling. Batum has been a streaky player over his career and looks like an option that I will fade on this two-game slate. Most players will have a ton of ownership and Batum playing poorly is not something I want to be a part of. The fringe players on the Hornets that are cheap are just not going to be worth rostering here. Their teams non-core players are the worst on this slate and are not worth getting exposure to.
Notable Injuries None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.8 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (18 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $8,600 | $8,500 | 37.7 | 3.6 | 34.8 | -0.7 | 1.08 | 26.9% | 10 | 14 | 12 | |
Nicolas Batum | $6,200 | $6,300 | 28.3 | -10.1 | 31.7 | -6.8 | 0.89 | 18.3% | 9 | 14 | 14 | |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $3,500 | $3,600 | 18.6 | -3.7 | 25.0 | -3.7 | 0.75 | 14.7% | 12 | 18 | 2 | |
Marvin Williams | $4,400 | $4,200 | 19.0 | 2.5 | 25.9 | 2.6 | 0.73 | 13.1% | 21 | 3 | 20 | |
Dwight Howard | $8,600 | $8,900 | 37.4 | 8.5 | 30.6 | 2.5 | 1.22 | 19.9% | 9 | 6 | 9 | |
Frank Kaminsky | $4,200 | $4,100 | 19.0 | 1.5 | 23.1 | -1.0 | 0.82 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Jeremy Lamb | $6,400 | $5,200 | 24.0 | 2.7 | 24.8 | 3.6 | 0.97 | 21.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kemba Walker
Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are still in the playoff race and will need a big win here against the Charlotte Hornets. John Wall will likely be back with the Wizards as well, which will certainly change the dynamic of this team. The Hornets have been ranked 19th in points allowed per game, 16th in defensive efficiency and play at the 8th fastest pace in the league. This is a spot where I want to target Wizards players, but the problem is they are all priced for John Wall being out and he is going to return tomorrow.
The big news again is John Wall will return. The question is how many minutes will he play?? If he is a full go then I would want to avoid he Wizards at their current price for the most part. The problem is that this is only a two-game slate, so we can’t just avoid them all. I think Porter is in play and a secondary option because of how scarce the small forward position is. If Porter doesn’t play, then “(player-popup #kelly-oubre)Kelly (player-popup #kelly-oubre) Oubre Jr. would instantly be the best value play in this game. You can say similar for Bradley Beal and I think paying up for Beal makes sense because we should have a lot of salary to spend and must roster two shooting guards on a site like FanDuel. On DraftKings there are probably better ways to spend your salary and Beal is more of a FanDuel specific play. Same goes for Markieff Morris on FanDuel with so many bad plays at the position spending up on him makes sense.
Overall, I don’t hate the idea of spending on these three options because it seems that we should have the money. I will list them all as secondary plays, but just realize that you are overpaying for them and are forced onto them because the slate is lacking depth. John Wall is out of play on FanDuel and I would rather play Kemba Walker at a similar price. If you want to play Wall on DraftKings I understand the play but he would have to have no minute’s restriction to be considered over there. If you want to go cheap at center, I don’t think you should look at Gortat. He draws a tough matchup and I prefer to go for an option like Kyle O’Quinn.
Notable Injuries “(player-popup #otto-porter)Otto Porter Jr and John Wall (questionable)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (8 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Wall | $8,500 | $7,400 | 41.3 | 34.3 | 1.20 | 28.9% | 19 | 17 | 20 | |||
Bradley Beal | $7,600 | $7,900 | 37.4 | -12.7 | 36.3 | -1.7 | 1.03 | 25.7% | 21 | 16 | 13 | |
Otto Porter | $7,200 | $6,600 | 30.7 | -3.1 | 31.8 | -5.2 | 0.97 | 17.3% | 21 | 26 | 12 | |
Markieff Morris | $5,900 | $5,900 | 23.8 | 4.2 | 27.3 | 2.3 | 0.87 | 16.5% | 23 | 16 | 13 | |
Marcin Gortat | $4,600 | $4,700 | 23.0 | -0.5 | 25.4 | -2.8 | 0.91 | 14.1% | 10 | 16 | 9 | |
Kelly Oubre | $5,400 | $5,600 | 22.1 | 8.8 | 27.6 | 2.0 | 0.80 | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks – 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 211.0 | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -3.5 | Vegas Spread | 3.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 107.3 | Implied Team Total | 103.8 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Reggie Bullock | Stanley Johnson | Anthony Tolliver | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | Trey Burke | Tim Hardaway | Lance Thomas | Michael Beasley | Luke Kornet | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 25 | 17 | 22 | 15 | 15 | DvP | 12 | 9 | 25 | 17 | 8 | |
DRPM Rat. | 28 | 20 | 11 | 25 | 18 | DRPM Rat. | 18 | 21 | 6 | 23 | 11 |
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are another team that are technically still in the playoff hunt, but realistically they are out of it. They get a great matchup against the Knicks. They are only 3.5 road favorites in a 211 total. This game will likely be close and competitive most of the way. This is my favorite game to target on the two-game slate.
Andre Drummond is the top spend up option on this two-game slate. With Blake Griffin out and Enes Kanter doubtful, no one is going to be able to stop Andre Drummond. He should have an absolute field day in this matchup and is the best play on the slate. Anthony Tolliver will likely start with Blake Griffin out and should be the value play that you want in the Pistons frontcourt. In his last three games Tolliver has 25 minutes or more and over 23 fantasy points in each game. We also know how much the Pistons fans and Stan Van Gundy love the Tolliver effect, so I would expect him to be an elite value play on this slate.
When Blake Griffin was out Stanley Johnson really benefited in that game. Johnson’s last matchup was a great one and he draws another good one against the Knicks, who are ranked 22nd at defending opposing small forwards. Stanley Johnson is another good value play that you will want to get exposure to. If you have the salary and want to spend up on Bullock I don’t hate taking that route, but I prefer Johnson on a point per dollar basis. Reggie Jackson is a fine option and has seen an increase in minutes. He saw 28 and 27 minutes in his last two games, which are encouraging signs. I think Jackson is a nice secondary option that has upside at this price. The only reason he is not an elite play is that I have more interest in Trey Burke at a similar price.
Ish Smith has really declined with the return of Reggie Jackson and he is an option that you should avoid at this time. It’s a two-game slate and I know Blake Griffin is out, but I am going to have to draw the line at Luke Kennard. If you like your entire lineup and Kennard is your last guy in, I get it on FanDuel. The reason why is because if you like your entire lineup and need to play a cheap shooting guard he is the only one in play.
Notable Injuries Blake Griffin (out)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 103.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (16 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reggie Jackson | $5,300 | $5,500 | 25.1 | -6.8 | 26.5 | -3.9 | 0.95 | 26.2% | 18 | 25 | 28 | |
Reggie Bullock | $5,200 | $5,000 | 18.5 | 4.8 | 27.7 | 1.9 | 0.67 | 14.4% | 15 | 17 | 20 | |
Stanley Johnson | $4,100 | $3,900 | 18.4 | 1.4 | 27.1 | -2.9 | 0.68 | 14.8% | 28 | 22 | 11 | |
Anthony Tolliver | $4,700 | $4,900 | 14.6 | 9.0 | 21.2 | 5.6 | 0.69 | 13.6% | 9 | 15 | 25 | |
Andre Drummond | $9,900 | $10,100 | 45.9 | 4.1 | 33.4 | 2.9 | 1.37 | 18.6% | 17 | 15 | 18 | |
Luke Kennard | $4,200 | $4,500 | 13.8 | 10.2 | 19.3 | 4.9 | 0.71 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Eric Moreland | $3,500 | $3,200 | 10.7 | 0.1 | 11.2 | -4.5 | 0.96 | 8.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Anthony Tolliver and Stanley Johnson
Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson and Reggie Bullock
New York Knicks
The Knicks are not a good basketball team, but they have injuries and are playing their young players a pile of minutes. This makes them more viable then you would think especially on a two-game slate. The Pistons are not a matchup I love to target because of their slow pace but since we love a lot of Pistons, we should also have interest in Knicks.
The biggest news in this game is that Enes Kanter is out and Frank Ntilikina is questionable. With Kanter out there will be a lot of value to target in the frontcourt. The elite value play will be Kyle O’Quinn if he can keep his hands to himself. He gets in foul trouble a ton, but they need him on the court and he will be in most my lineups. The only argument to not play O’Quinn is on FanDuel because I would prefer to pay up for Drummond. On DraftKings, I would do my best to get both in your lineups.
Another frontcourt value play to consider is Luke Kornet. He has been the best value big besides O’Quinn and is more of a secondary play. If I had to pick I would take O’Quinn over Kornet, but I think you can play both on DraftKings. Michael Beasley is in a great spot on this slate and gets a matchup against the 25th ranked team at defending small forwards. Beasley is expensive, but he has seen 34 or more minutes in his last two games. This is a great spot for Beasley and if you have the money I would look to spend up on him and I believe he is an elite play.
Trey Burke is one of my favorite point guard options on this slate. He is clearly getting the full go to do whatever he wants. The minutes are safe, the shot attempts are there, and he has a safe floor with upside at this price. Trey Burke is an elite option and my favorite point per dollar play at point guard. The last Knicks play that I really have interest in would be Tim Hardaway Jr. In his last six games he has 31 or more minutes per game and has been the safest Knicks option. We know he will get his minutes no matter what. He is a nice secondary option and one that I want to get exposure to on this two-game slate. Other than that, I don’t want to mess around with Courtney Lee and some of the other fringe Knicks players. I am going to target the Knicks that have seen consistent run and make sure to secure those minutes into my lineup.
Notable Injuries Enes Kaner (doubtful) and Frank Ntilikina (questionable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.5 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trey Burke | $6,000 | $6,200 | 21.7 | 14.9 | 19.3 | 11.3 | 1.12 | 27.2% | 21 | 12 | 18 | |
Tim Hardaway | $6,000 | $6,700 | 28.5 | -1.0 | 33.1 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 22.2% | 3 | 9 | 21 | |
Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,000 | 9.0 | -3.2 | 18.5 | 0.7 | 0.49 | 9.3% | 21 | 25 | 6 | |
Michael Beasley | $7,000 | $6,400 | 23.2 | 9.2 | 22.5 | 10.0 | 1.03 | 22.9% | 13 | 17 | 23 | |
Luke Kornet | $3,600 | $3,600 | 13.9 | 2.0 | 14.6 | 6.4 | 0.95 | 18.1% | 13 | 8 | 11 | |
Kyle O’Quinn | $5,500 | $4,400 | 20.4 | -10.5 | 17.3 | -2.5 | 1.18 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Emmanuel Mudiay | $4,900 | $4,300 | 17.7 | 5.7 | 19.6 | 0.0 | 0.90 | 23.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle O’Quinn, Michael Beasley and Trey Burke
Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr.
Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
Toronto Raptors | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | Vegas Total | |||||||||||
Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -1.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Terry Rozier | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 3 | DvP | 9 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 21 | |
DRPM Rat. | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 18 |
Toronto Raptors
This is the start of a three-game slate and I will be breaking the games down from a three-game slate perspective. The Raptors are the best team in the East and likely will hang onto that spot the rest of the seasons. I don’t target the Raptors a ton and don’t expect to here because they draw a tough matchup. The Celtics are ranked 2nd in points allowed per game, 1st in defensive efficiency and 22nd in pace. I know this is not the same Celtics team, but this is still a team I don’t want to target.
This is the perfect storm here, I hate playing Raptors players and I don’t like targeting the Celitcs defense. Kyle Lowry and DeMar Derozan have expensive prices around the industry. If you force me to play one option, I would go cheap for DeMar Derozan. His price is $7400 which is fair for him and you are also forced to play two shooting guards on FanDuel. I like more point guards than shooting guards on this slate, making Derozan my favorite Raptors option if I must pick.
The only other Raptors to discuss would be Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas. Ibaka is a streaky player and has been playing well recently. If you do want to target Boston the best route to take is through the frontcourt, putting Ibaka in play. I think he is a secondary option on DraftKings at $5100 that you should get exposure to. Jonas Valanciunas is not my favorite player to roster, especially at $6400 and $7000. I won’t list him as a secondary or elite play, but I understand if you want to play him. I won’t talk you out of it, but there are other center options I prefer on this slate. The only bench players on Toronto that I would play would be Fred VanVleet. He has been impressive over the last three weeks and his production in the amount of minutes he has played cannot go overlooked. He is cheap enough where I think he makes for a nice secondary value play that you may want to get exposure to.
Notable Injuries None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 112.5 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (22 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Lowry | $8,300 | $8,400 | $14,900 | 35.1 | 5.0 | 32.3 | 3.2 | 1.09 | 21.8% | 5 | 2 | 4 |
DeMar DeRozan | $7,900 | $7,400 | $14,200 | 37.5 | -9.9 | 34.1 | -0.9 | 1.10 | 28.4% | 2 | 4 | 2 |
OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 11.9 | -2.0 | 20.0 | -4.6 | 0.59 | 10.9% | 2 | 10 | 4 |
Serge Ibaka | $5,700 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 25.0 | -0.2 | 27.4 | -0.1 | 0.91 | 16.9% | 6 | 2 | 1 |
Jonas Valanciunas | $7,000 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 27.0 | 3.8 | 22.5 | -1.7 | 1.20 | 18.9% | 7 | 3 | 1 |
Jakob Poeltl | $4,400 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 17.5 | 1.8 | 18.3 | -0.5 | 0.96 | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fred VanVleet | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 19.1 | 8.1 | 20.2 | 6.8 | 0.95 | 19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
C.J. Miles | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 16.0 | -4.7 | 18.9 | 1.1 | 0.84 | 20.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka and Fred VanVleet
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are banged up and not the same team at this time. Even though they have been out for a while there is still some value here and injury news that we are waiting on. This game has the lowest implied total and the Celtics are projected to score the least points on the slate.
Al Horford and Marcus Morris news will change a lot on this slate. If they don’t play Greg Monroe will instantly be one of the best options at Center. If they do play I still think he is a fine play but not the top option at the position. If either of Horford or Morris play, I think they have interesting prices and we can get exposure to them. Jayson Tatum has been one of the biggest beneficiaries to the injuries on Boston. He has stepped up and taken on a bigger role for this team.
Although I don’t love the matchup for Tatum, I think the role he is in is too hard to ignore, making him a secondary option today. Jaylen Brown has also seen a nice boost since returning to the lineup. I don’t have him listed as a secondary or elite play but if you want to get exposure I wouldn’t talk you out of it. The last play on Boston that I really want to discuss is Terry Rozier. The matchup against Kyle Lowry is tough, but it is tough to pass up on him if I pay up at point guard. With Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart out, he has seen a big boost in usage, which can’t get overlooked. If you force me to pay up at point guard, give me Terry Rozier as a nice safe option with upside.
Notable Injuries Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart (out) Al Horford and Marcus Morris (questionable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.1 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Terry Rozier | $7,200 | $6,700 | $12,900 | 23.7 | 11.4 | 25.5 | 7.6 | 0.93 | 20.1% | 7 | 9 | 3 |
Jaylen Brown | $5,700 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 25.5 | 0.5 | 30.7 | -3.9 | 0.83 | 18.2% | 12 | 2 | 24 |
Jayson Tatum | $6,500 | $6,300 | $12,800 | 25.8 | 7.3 | 30.6 | 1.2 | 0.84 | 16.8% | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Al Horford | $7,000 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 32.2 | -0.9 | 31.6 | 0.6 | 1.02 | 17.6% | 7 | 8 | 13 |
Aron Baynes | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 15.1 | 1.2 | 18.1 | 2.6 | 0.83 | 14.3% | 11 | 21 | 18 |
Greg Monroe | $5,300 | $5,600 | $11,400 | 22.9 | 3.2 | 20.2 | 0.7 | 1.13 | 19.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Shane Larkin | $3,700 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 0.67 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Greg Monroe (depends on injury news) and
Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum and Terry Rozier
Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 211.5 | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 102.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | D’Angelo Russell | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Jarrett Allen | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 4 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 7 | DvP | 28 | 10 | 14 | 27 | 30 | |
DRPM Rat. | 22 | 19 | 9 | 12 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 26 |
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets are not a good team but since their draft pick is owned by the Cavs, we don’t have to worry about them tanking. They come out fighting hard most games and I expect them to do the same here. This is not a great matchup going up against the 4th ranked team in points allowed per game, 8th in defensive efficiency and 27th in pace. If this was a normal slate I would stay far away from Brooklyn, but because it is a three-game slate I think we must consider some options.
D’Angelo Russell is the best play on the Brooklyn side of the ball. He has the most upside, is playing consistent minutes, and isn’t afraid to shoot the ball. It’s also been encouraging to see Russell start over Spencer Dinwiddie for once. I understand this matchup is tough because the Heat are great at defending opposing point guards. The thing is though, the Nets are finally giving the keys to Russell to let him work, which makes him a secondary play and my favorite Net to roster. Caris Levert draws a poor matchup and is a play that I don’t want to play with his minutes capped.
Allan Crabbe is interesting because he is cheap and has the best matchup of all the Nets players. For his price I think he is in play and I will list him as a secondary option as well. Other than that, I get the arguments for DeMarre Carroll and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. They have been good, but this is a difficult matchup and there are other plays that I prefer more at their same price tier. I didn’t mention Jarrett Allen and for good reason. This matchup is tough and there are better center options.
Notable Injuries None
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.5 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -4.5 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (27 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D’Angelo Russell | $7,400 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 28.8 | 7.5 | 26.1 | 2.8 | 1.10 | 28.8% | 6 | 4 | 22 |
Allen Crabbe | $4,600 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 22.0 | 1.4 | 29.4 | -1.1 | 0.75 | 17.2% | 6 | 12 | 19 |
DeMarre Carroll | $6,200 | $6,100 | $11,600 | 26.9 | 2.4 | 30.0 | 1.1 | 0.90 | 18.0% | 9 | 1 | 9 |
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,200 | $6,500 | $13,100 | 29.1 | 4.2 | 28.3 | 4.5 | 1.03 | 20.7% | 10 | 7 | 12 |
Jarrett Allen | $5,200 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 18.7 | 4.7 | 19.6 | 5.1 | 0.96 | 13.7% | 8 | 7 | 2 |
Caris LeVert | $5,800 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 24.7 | 2.0 | 26.0 | -0.1 | 0.95 | 21.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Spencer Dinwiddie | $5,000 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 28.5 | -12.5 | 28.9 | -5.2 | 0.99 | 22.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell
Secondary Plays – Allen Crabbe
Miami Heat
The Heat are not a fun team to target when they are at full strength. They have been banged up, but now that they are healthier they are tougher to roster. On top of that, they are priced up for the recent injuries. However, they have one of the best matchups on today’s slate. The Brooklyn Nets are ranked 28th in points allowed per game, 24th in defensive efficiency, 23rd in rebounding differential and 7th in pace. This team is not good, and the Heat have the highest implied total on the slate. I typically don’t load up on Heat players when they are healthy, but they are a team that we are going to want to get a lot of exposure to.
Hassan Whiteside only played 19 minutes in his first game back from injury. It is going to be important to wait for news to hear if Whiteside will have a minute’s restriction. If Whiteside is a full go, then he is an elite play. The Nets are the worst team at defending opposing centers and Whiteside could even crush them on a minute’s restriction. Whiteside news is going to be important and something we need to watch for.
James Johnson is my favorite forward to get exposure to on Miami. He might be priced up, but he matches up well with Brooklyn and they can use him at multiple positions. This is a great spot for Johnson and the only reason I have him as a secondary play is that the price is a bit high. Either way I like his floor and ceiling in this spot. The Heat are healthier at the wing and makes options like Josh Richardson, Justice Winslow, Dwayne Wade, Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington difficult rosters. They can obviously get there because they are playing the Nets who are terrible, but they are not options that I will be prioritizing. If you make multiple lineups there is a case to mix and match them throughout your lineups but that’s about it.
One more play that I like a lot is Goran Dragic. He is only a secondary play for me because with the Heat healthy Dragic tends to lack a ton of upside. This matchup against the 28th ranked team at defending point guards is the reason I like him here. I also prefer Rozier to Dragic at this price, but I do think Dragic is an option that you should have in your player pool.
Notable Injuries None
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 6.2 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.5 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (7 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goran Dragic | $7,200 | $7,100 | $13,300 | 30.4 | -4.0 | 31.8 | -1.1 | 0.95 | 24.9% | 28 | 28 | 29 |
Tyler Johnson | $4,700 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 22.2 | -4.8 | 28.5 | -5.1 | 0.78 | 17.8% | 9 | 10 | 21 |
Josh Richardson | $6,600 | $5,900 | $12,900 | 26.8 | 1.0 | 33.3 | -0.6 | 0.81 | 16.7% | 4 | 14 | 4 |
James Johnson | $5,800 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 25.6 | 3.0 | 26.6 | 2.9 | 0.96 | 18.0% | 28 | 27 | 14 |
Hassan Whiteside | $7,500 | $7,600 | $14,400 | 35.3 | -5.9 | 25.7 | -6.2 | 1.38 | 20.3% | 30 | 30 | 26 |
Dwyane Wade | $5,300 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 24.0 | 1.6 | 23.0 | -2.3 | 1.04 | 24.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Kelly Olynyk | $6,300 | $7,200 | $13,800 | 24.6 | 7.2 | 23.7 | 1.0 | 1.04 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Wayne Ellington | $4,200 | $4,200 | $8,700 | 18.1 | -2.5 | 26.7 | -0.9 | 0.68 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Hassan Whitesie (if no minutes restriction)
Secondary Plays – James Johnson and Goran Dragic
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors | Sacramento Kings | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 211.5 | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -8.5 | Vegas Spread | 8.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 110.0 | Implied Team Total | 101.5 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.4 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Quinn Cook | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | JaVale McGee | Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Justin Jackson | Skal Labissiere | Willie Cauley-Stein | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 18 | 15 | 13 | 22 | 26 | DvP | 11 | 22 | 12 | 24 | 10 | |
DRPM Rat. | 29 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 23 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 21 |
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are starting to get healthier, with Stephen Curry being the only one out for this game. The Warriors will almost be back at full strength and draw a matchup against one of the worst teams in the league, the Sacramento Kings. The Kings are ranked 16th in points allowed per game, 28th in defensive efficiency, 28th in rebounding differential and 28th in pace. I want to get exposure to the top Warriors options; the problem is how will they fair on their first game back from injury?
Small Forward is a very weak position on this slate. On a site like FanDuel where you must play two, it makes sense to plug Kevin Durant into your lineup. Durant is expensive on DraftKings, but I still think he is the top spend up option. Durant is the biggest beneficiary without Curry and I expect that to continue. My next favorite option would be Draymond Green. The Kings struggle to rebound and defend against opposing bigs. This is a great spot to target Draymond Green because we don’t have a lot of options to spend up on.
Klay Thompson is returning to the Warriors lineup after being out for a couple of weeks with a thumb injury. Klay has been a frustrating roster this year and I think we can easily take the wait and see approach on today’s slate. Quinn Cook has been great with all the Warriors out and I expect him to see a decent number of minutes. Cook is now overpriced and going to lose a ton of usage with Durant, Green, and Klay back. Quinn Cook is an easy fade on this slate. All the bench players on the Warriors are overpriced and they are easy fades. It’s best to just focus on getting exposure through Kevin Durant and Draymond Green.
Notable Injuries Steph Curry (out), Andre Igudola (out) and Omri Casspi (questionable)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 113.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -3.9 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.7 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.1 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (28 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinn Cook | $6,200 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 14.2 | 18.3 | 19.2 | 15.4 | 0.74 | 16.9% | 14 | 18 | 29 |
Klay Thompson | $6,700 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 30.2 | 34.3 | 0.88 | 20.3% | 27 | 15 | 25 | ||
Kevin Durant | $10,900 | $10,900 | $19,200 | 47.1 | -28.5 | 34.4 | -17.3 | 1.37 | 26.6% | 19 | 13 | 24 |
Draymond Green | $8,600 | $9,100 | $16,200 | 36.9 | -19.6 | 32.8 | -12.8 | 1.13 | 17.0% | 18 | 22 | 25 |
JaVale McGee | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 1.22 | 16.1% | 28 | 26 | 23 |
Andre Iguodala | $4,700 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 19.0 | 2.2 | 25.4 | -1.6 | 0.75 | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Jordan Bell | $4,500 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 16.6 | 3.4 | 14.6 | 5.2 | 1.14 | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kevin Durant
Secondary Plays – Draymond Green
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are bad at basketball, but I do have some interest in them from a DFS perspective on this slate. The Warriors don’t play at the same pace without Curry, but this is still a boost in pace for the Kings. The Kings also have fair prices around the industry and I think there are some good plays that we can take shots on. After all it is a three-game slate.
I am assuming Zach Randolph won’t be playing in this game and if that’s the case Skal Labissiere would be one of my favorite options. He played horrible against the Pacers, but I will give him a pass on that game. If we throw that game out, he has 24 or more fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games! He will likely see minutes in the mid 20’s and is only $5300 and $5500. There is a nice floor with built in upside at this price and Skal is an elite value on today’s slate.
You can also take a shot on Willie Cauley-Stein at center for only $6600 and $5900. In his three games against the Warriors this year WCS is averaging 32.9 DraftKings points per game. He is one of their more talented players and I think he is a great play on this slate. I really like getting exposure to some of these Kings players in the backcourt on this slate.
I think it is a great way to save salary on some good value plays. Bogdan Bogdanovic is my favorite cheap guard to play on the Kings. His price is below $5000 on both sites, which is just too cheap for him in a fast-paced game. I love Bogdanovic on this slate and he is going to be an elite value play that I will be targeting. If you have he money for Buddy Hield, I don’t hate getting exposure to him. He has been performing well but I just don’t see myself spending my salary on him when I can go down to an option like Bogdanovic. I also don’t mind looking at Frank Mason with De’Aaron Fox’s recent struggles. He is a good source of value and should be safe for minutes in the mid 20’s. If you are spending down at guard he is a nice option.
Notable Injuries Garrett Temple (out)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 99.4 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (4 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
De’Aaron Fox | $4,800 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 22.4 | -4.9 | 27.3 | -1.2 | 0.82 | 21.8% | 10 | 11 | 22 |
Bogdan Bogdanovic | $4,400 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 21.8 | -1.9 | 27.7 | 2.1 | 0.79 | 18.7% | 4 | 22 | 9 |
Justin Jackson | $4,000 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 21.3 | 5.2 | 0.59 | 13.2% | 10 | 12 | 23 |
Skal Labissiere | $5,300 | $5,500 | $11,300 | 18.7 | 5.5 | 20.6 | 7.7 | 0.91 | 18.3% | 12 | 24 | 2 |
Willie Cauley-Stein | $6,600 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 28.4 | -2.9 | 27.8 | -1.0 | 1.02 | 19.2% | 16 | 10 | 21 |
Buddy Hield | $6,100 | $6,100 | $12,800 | 22.8 | 6.6 | 24.9 | 3.6 | 0.92 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Kosta Koufos | $3,900 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 19.3 | 6.2 | 19.6 | 2.6 | 0.99 | 14.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Frank Mason | $4,000 | $4,300 | 17.0 | 6.9 | 19.2 | 3.5 | 0.88 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |