NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 8th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-04-08 14:51:21

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Legend & FAQ

Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets – 1:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		213.5					Vegas Total		213.5
			Vegas Spread		-2.0					Vegas Spread		2.0
			Implied Team Total		107.8					Implied Team Total		105.8
			Pace Projection +/-		1.0					Pace Projection +/-		-1.4
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	17	26	16	15		DvP	6	7	11	11	22
DRPM Rat.	20	13	12	13	9		DRPM Rat.	19	1	24	5	12

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

None

Hello Grinders. We’ve made it to the final Sunday of the regular season. We have seven games on this slate, but the sites have split it up into an early and main slate with the game sandwiched in between being used as for the single-game format. Let’s dive in.

The Pacers could still technically move their way into the 4th seed, but they’d have to win these final two games and the Cavaliers would have to lose their final two games. I’m assuming they will continue to play hard and roll out their normal starters/rotations, especially after they got demolished in their last game by the Raptors. That game was a disaster for the Pacers, as they had their lowest point total of the season (73) and no starter had more than 5 points.

This should be a bounce-back spot for the Pacers, and I’m willing to go back to the well on Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young. Oladipo’s price tag is a bit high but on a three-game slate with no great pivots, I think he makes some sense. Collison, Bogdanovic and Young profile more as secondary options and are affordable across the industry. I did find it interesting that the blurb in Oladipo’s DraftKings profile suggested the Pacers might go easy on his minutes as they prepare for the playoffs. I haven’t found any information suggesting the starters’ minutes will be scaled back and I assumed the low minutes for Oladipo was due to the blowout of the game.

I’m probably off Myles Turner, especially in a tough matchup against Dwight Howard, but I wouldn’t be opposed to sprinkling him in some lineups if you’re running multiple lineups. He’s been held to ;ess than 20 DraftKings points in three straight games now and doesn’t seem right. There’s merit to attacking this recency bias in tournaments though, but I wouldn’t use him in cash games.

There are some decent secondary pieces here in Lance Stephenson, Cory Joseph and Domantas Sabonis, but those are just fillers to consider if you need a punt.

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.5 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.0 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo

Secondary Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

Dwayne Bacon (Out), Treveon Graham (Out)

The Hornets continue to give their starters minutes in the mid-to-high 20s, which means I don’t have interest in any except Dwight Howard, who continues to smash in limited time. This matchup against the Pacers is an elite one too. I generally have a hard time recommending someone who isn’t going to play a full allotment of minutes, but on a short three-game early slate, he arguably still has the highest floor and ceiling of all the centers. For that reason alone, I’m going to label him as elite. Guillermo Hernangomez has been getting the remaining backup center minutes and has been a per-minute beast, so I like him as a punt.

Outside of the bigs, Malik Monk would be my main target. He’s now scored 16 or more real-life points in four straight games and the Hornets appear committed to giving him solid minutes down the stretch. He’s an elite punt option.

Since there aren’t a lot of good options on this slate, you could certainly play one of the the starters (Batum, Walker, Kidd-Gilchrist, Williams) and just hope one of them excels in their shortened time on the court. Batum and Williams would be my first choices, followed by Walker and Kidd-Gilchrist. Walker and Hornets seem content with letting Malik Monk take the reigns in these final few games.

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 108.0 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dwight Howard, Malik Monk

Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum, Guillermo Hernangomez, Kemba Walker, Marvin Williams

Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers – 1:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		215.5					Vegas Total		215.5
			Vegas Spread		13.0					Vegas Spread		-13.0
			Implied Team Total		101.3					Implied Team Total		114.3
			Pace Projection +/-		2.6					Pace Projection +/-		-2.0
Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Dorian Finney-Smith	Harrison Barnes	Dwight Powell	Johnathan Motley		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Amir Johnson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	14	16	20	9	16		DvP	22	10	6	20	13
DRPM Rat.	1	26	1	25	4		DRPM Rat.	28	6	28	8	8

Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries

Kyle Collinsworth (Questionable), Doug McDermott (Questionable), Salah Mejri (Doubtful), Dwight Powell (Questionable), Dennis Smith Jr. (Questionable)

This game has “blowout” written all over it, and we need to exercise some caution. The Mavericks have no incentive to win, while the 76ers are going to continue trying to win and maintain the #3 spot in the East after their thrilling victory over the Cavaliers the other night.

The Mavs are listing Salah Mejri as doubtful, while Dennis Smith Jr., Dwight Powell, Doug McDermott and Kyle Collinsworth are all questionable. Harrison Barnes is the safest player, as he should still see his normal allotment of minutes. Meanwhile, Johnathon Motley has been dominating is coming off a 26 point, 12 rebounds double-double over 40 minutes. If he continues to start, you have to play him.

The guard situation is a bit murky, especially since we don’t know what will happen with Dennis Smith Jr. If DSJ plays, he’s more of a secondary play for me. If he’s out, that would be a boost for Dorian Finney-Smith, Aaron Harrison and Kyle Collinsworth (if he plays). The Mavericks don’t seem to be interested in giving Yogi Ferrell minutes anymore, as he hasn’t played more than 18 minutes over his last four games.

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.4 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.3 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.0 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.1 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Johnathan Motley

Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes, Dennis Smith Jr. (if he plays), Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell (if he plays)

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

Joel Embiid (Out), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out)

There’s no doubt that Ben Simmons is an elite play, the problem is whether this game stays competitive enough for him to hit value. His price tag is at an insane amount after his latest performance, and if this game gets out of hand early, he may not be able to pay it off. On the flipside, if the Mavericks somehow keep this game close, Simmons will be in there and you’ll need him on your roster.

Dario Saric returned from his elbow injury but shot 1-for-9 and was otherwise quiet. I’m a bit concerned he’s just playing hurt and would rather target Ersan Ilyasova off the bench. Robert Covington and J.J. Redick are still fine plays, and I’m even considering Redick as an elite play given the way he’s been shooting.

Off the bench, you can look to Marco Belinelli and Richaun Holmes. Belinelli is fine in all formats but I prefer Holmes in tournaments. You could even consider Markelle Fultz as a deep GPP play in case this game blows out big time.

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.4 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Marco Belinelli, Robert Covington, Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Redick, Ben Simmons

Secondary Plays – Markelle Fultz (GPP), Richaun Holmes (GPP)

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics – 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		202.0					Vegas Total		202.0
			Vegas Spread		9.5					Vegas Spread		-9.5
			Implied Team Total		96.3					Implied Team Total		105.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.4					Pace Projection +/-		1.1
Projected Starters	Isaiah Taylor	DeAndre Bembry	Taurean Prince	John Collins	Dewayne Dedmon		Projected Starters	Terry Rozier	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	2	5	10	2	3		DvP	30	24	30	26	29
DRPM Rat.	4	2	4	1	1		DRPM Rat.	9	N/A	27	19	13

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

None

The Hawks have been one of the more confusing teams down the stretch. One game they are benching Taurean Prince, the next game he’s leading the team with 34 minutes. Unfortunately, since this is a short three-game early slate, you’ll need to consider this team.

Taurean Prince is the clear lead dog on this team now, when he’s not getting benched. I think getting exposure to him in tournaments would be important. Outside of Prince, John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon continue to see solid time on the court, while Isaiah Taylor is still starting at point guard for the Hawks. Tyler Dorsey is coming off a career high 22 points and I like him as a punt since he continues to see heavy minutes despite playing off the bench.

It’s worth noting that Deandre Bembry moved into the starting lineup and replaced Damion Lee, but Bembry only played 17 minutes while Lee still saw 26 minutes. I don’t have much interest in Bembry if he’s only going to play sparingly.

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.1 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.3 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -6.8 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Taurean Prince, Tyler Dorsey

Secondary Plays – John Collins, Dewayne Dedmon, Isaiah Taylor

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Marcus Morris (Out – Rest), Guerschon Yabusele (Doubtful)

Marcus Morris will sit out to rest and Guerschon Yabusele is looking doubtful (I’m assuming he’s out since it makes no sense to risk his health at this point). In their last game, Al Horford and Jayson Tatum sat out for rest while Marcus Morris left early due to an ejection, which allowed Jaylen Brown to have a career game and Greg Monroe to triple-double. With Horford and Tatum expected back, I doubt we see another Monroe triple-double, but he has been playing well lately.

Considering this game is against the Hawks and the Celtics no longer have anything left to play for with the Raptors clinching the #1 seed yesterday, we could see some of the secondary players get more run. I’m viewing Horford, Brown, Tatum and Rozier as more secondary options on this early slate. It would not surprise me if we saw Jabari Bird and Semi Ojeleye get some decent minutes. With motivation and minutes somewhat uncertain, the only play I feel comfortable rolling out there would be Greg Monroe given his recent form, although we’ll need to also make sure he’s not a late rest candidate. I did find this quote by beat writer Scott Souze, which you can find here.

Celtics coach Brad Stevens said likely full lineup to go Sunday vs ATL with reasonable minute limits. Probably Tuesday too (then don’t expect much Wednesday). Said possibility of playing Wiz won’t affect his decision to rest/play guys Tuesday.

So I would exercise caution with the starters given this tweet since we aren’t sure how many minutes they will actually play.

Lastly, keep an eye on Jonathan Gibson. He was dominating the Chinese league and was signed to replace Kyrie’s open spot. I don’t feel comfortable listing him as a secondary play yet because I don’t know his role on the team, but he could get garbage time minutes and would make for a decent deep GPP punt. Just know there’s risk here but upside also.

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 103.9 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Greg Monroe

Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Terry Rozier, Jayson Tatum

Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies – 3:30 PM ET

Detroit Pistons							Memphis Grizzlies
			Vegas Total		203.5					Vegas Total		203.5
			Vegas Spread		-5.5					Vegas Spread		5.5
			Implied Team Total		104.5					Implied Team Total		99.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.4					Pace Projection +/-		-1.0
Projected Starters	Reggie Jackson	Luke Kennard	Stanley Johnson	Anthony Tolliver	Andre Drummond		Projected Starters	Kobi Simmons	Ben McLemore	MarShon Brooks	Dillon Brooks	Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	20	25	15	15	1		DvP	12	8	24	19	9
DRPM Rat.	26	16	N/A	18	10		DRPM Rat.	18	14	6	23	11

Detroit Pistons

Notable Injuries

Reggie Bullock (Out), Blake Griffin (Out)

It appears this game isn’t on either the early or main slate, but rather is on the single-game formats. I’ll briefly go over it but will approach it with that game format in mind.

The Pistons surprisingly still played their starters despite being eliminated from the playoffs. Andre Drummond, for some odd reason, played 42 minutes and destroyed the Mavericks. Stanley Johnson played 39 minutes, Reggie Jackson played 35 minutes, Anthony Tolliver played 35 minutes and Luke Kennard played 27 as he moved into the starting lineup for the injured Reggie Bullock. Langston Galloway led the bench with 26 minutes but nobody else played more than 18 minutes. I thought they would give Ish Smith more time to make sure Reggie Jackson doesn’t get overworked, or to use this time to bench the veteran Tolliver in favor of Henry Ellenson. I guess I was wrong. If this trend continues for the remainder of the season, you’ll want as much exposure to the Pistons starters in your single-game format, with Andre Drummond being the priority.

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 1.0 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (30 of 30)

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, Stanley Johnson

Secondary Plays – Luke Kennard, Anthony Tolliver

Memphis Grizzlies

Notable Injuries

Tyreke Evans (Out), JaMychal Green (Out), Andrew Harrison (Out), Jarell Martin (Out), Chandler Parsons (Out), Wayne Selden (Out)

The Grizzlies will be without several players (Evans, Green, Harrison, Martin, Parsons, Selden). Marc Gasol wasn’t on the injury report, so he may return. His return would cut into the time of Ivan Rabb and Deyonta Davis, both of whom played well in their last game against Sacramento. If Gasol ends up resting, both Rabb and Davis would be in play.

Marshon Brooks and Dillon Brooks would be my main targets here, as both are carrying the team in terms of scoring. Ben McLemore is interesting, but a Gasol return would be enough to take me off him as McLemore is extremely scoring dependent and the return of a guy like Gasol will likely funnel away usage.

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 98.7 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.0 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dillon Brooks, Marshon Brooks

Secondary Plays – Deyonta Davis (would be elite if Gasol sits), Marc Gasol, Ben McLemore, Ivan Rabb (would be elite if Gasol sits)

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors – 6:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		0.5					Pace Projection +/-		0.7
Projected Starters	D.J. Augustin	Wes Iwundu	Mario Hezonja	Aaron Gordon	Nikola Vucevic		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	9	2	3	8	20		DvP	29	26	16	25	25
DRPM Rat.	3	24	5	13	18		DRPM Rat.	22	16	29	21	9

Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

Aaron Gordon (Probable), Jonathan Isaac (Out), Terrence Ross (Probable), Jonathon Simmons (Out), Nikola Vucevic (Probable)

The Magic are such a mess. In their last game, they surprisingly sat Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic for “rest.” The Magic are already without Jonathan Isaac and Jonathon Simmons due to injury, which has allowed Mario Hezonja to start. Now there’s news that Terrence Ross is probable after missing the past four months. I don’t expect him to play major minutes and he’s not someone we need on our radar.

If Gordon and Vucevic do return, that’s going to hurt guys like Bismack Biyombo, Jamel Artis, Khem Birch and Marresse Speights. In a way, it makes all of them kind of unplayable. Mario Hezonja and Shelvin Mack would be my main targets, and I suppose you could still play Gordon and Vucevic and just hope they produce in limited minutes, but this team is a hot mess and is going to be difficult to figure out.

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 103.7 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon (GPP), Mario Hezonja, Shelvin Mack, Nikola Vucevic (GPP)

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

None

We’ll need to monitor the Raptors closely to see if they rest anyone down the stretch. We’ve seen it done both in preseason and in the regular season, but the Raptors have staggered rest days before for Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. With that said, there’s a quote by Coach Casey on rest and he said the following here in this tweet:

Casey, asked if he’ll rest guys over the final 3 games: “Nope. That’s bull crap… We can’t think rest, we have to think rhythm.”

Am I allowed to write bull crap on RotoGrinders? Hmm, guess I’ll see if the editing team removes it. Anyway, I’m still a bit skeptical here and wouldn’t be shocked if one of Lowry or DeRozan rested, but even if they play, the Magic are trying to lose and this Raptors bench is so deep that this game could blow out and the starters never come back in for the 4th quarter rotations.

I’m listing DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciuanas as secondary options because while they may start, it’s not certain they will see their full compliment of minutes. It’s possible we just see the minutes spread around to all the players and nobody really has a standout game, but everyone just contributes a little. I’m going to hold off calling any of the bench guys as elite or secondary plays, but if we see someone like DeRozan out, that would push someone like Delon Wright into an elite play, so just monitor the news.

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas

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