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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-01 11:44:17

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets – 7:00 PM

Chicago Bulls Houston Rockets
chicagonba Vegas Total 214.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 104.3 Team Proj. 110.3
Team Pace 98.60 Team Pace 100.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 13 23 30 29 19 Opp. Season 28 15 25 26 24
Last 3 Weeks 16 17 29 13 27 Last 3 Weeks 25 12 23 27 13

Chicago Bulls

Record: 37-37 — Road: 13-23 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bulls have won five of their last ten games, but are a full two games behind the Pacers for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. Tonight’s game against the Rockets could end up costing one of these teams a trip to the postseason. The Bulls are 6-point underdogs tonight with an implied team total of 104.3 points. They have the sixth highest projected point differential at +2.8.

The Rockets are always a favorable matchup for fantasy production. They play at a fast pace and are ranked 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Bulls’ offense sees a nice boost as a whole and given then fact that this is a must win game, we can expect their starters to log heavy minutes tonight. Taj Gibsin is dealing with a rib injury and is listed as questionable. If he is unable to suit up, give a boost to Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis.

Elite Plays

Pau Gasol
pau-gasol-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.23 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.8 27.8 -4.0 28.6 -3.2
FPPG (FD) 39.1 33.0 -6.1 30.6 -8.5
TO-Adj. Usage 21.4 20.2 -1.2 19.5 -1.9

After playing three games with a 25 minute limit, Gasol has played 34 and 33 minutes in his last two. With the Bulls in a must win situation tonight, we can expect him to play minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight against the Rockets. Gasol is a stat-stuffing machine that is way too cheap on DraftKings. He averages 1.31 FP/min on DK this season. I’ll label him as a borderline elite play on FanDuel as well.

Secondary Plays

Jimmy Butler
jimmy-butler-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.99 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.1 33.8 -3.3 35.0 -2.1
FPPG (FD) 36.6 30.9 -5.8 28.5 -8.2
TO-Adj. Usage 21.7 19.5 -2.2 17.2 -4.5

Butler has not played well since coming back from his knee injury. He just hasn’t been as sharp and he doesn’t seem to have the same explosiveness. I probably won’t be looking his way in cash games, but he should see all of the minutes that he can handle tonight. He draws a terrific matchup against James “I’m allergic to defense” Harden.

Derrick Rose
derrick-rose-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$5,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 31.6 -0.4 32.6 0.6
FPPG (FD) 27.3 27.3 0.0 27.2 -0.1
TO-Adj. Usage 23.7 24.3 0.6 25.6 2.0

Rose is the one Bulls’ player that has actually been playing well recently. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 27.3 fantasy points per contest. His matchup against Patrick Beverley doesn’t sound great, but the Rockets are only ranked 13th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season.

Houston Rockets

Record: 37-38 — Home: 20-16 — Last 10: 4-6

The Rockets have lost six of their last ten games and are now tied with the Jazz and Mavericks for the seventh and eighth playoff spots in the Western Conference. Much like the Bulls, every game is a must win from here on out. The Rockets are projected to score 110.3 points tonight, which gives them the third highest team total and the fourth highest projected point differential.

The Bulls have been better defensively with Jimmy Butler in the lineup, but they have still allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game this season. The Rockets have a high team total tonight and we should consider this a slightly above-average matchup. The Rockets are one of the few teams that have everything to play for, which makes them a good team to target in DFS.

Elite Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,900 Salary:$10,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.37
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 38.0 39.0 1.0 42.4 4.4
FPPG (FD) 47.4 49.4 2.0 55.4 8.0
TO-Adj. Usage 27.3 25.1 -2.2 25.0 -2.3

I’ve been using Harden every single night over the last couple of weeks. If the Rockets lose tonight, they will drop down to ninth place in the Western Conference standings. Harden is going to do everything in his power (at least offensively) to not let that happen. Sure, he is going to draw the defense of Jimmy Butler, but he will play 40+ minutes in a game that is expected to be close and high-scoring. Harden is easily my favorite superstar in this slate.

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard
dwight-howard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.5 31.3 -1.2 31.4 -1.1
FPPG (FD) 33.3 27.5 -5.8 25.6 -7.7
TO-Adj. Usage 14.6 10.9 -3.7 10.7 -4.0

After playing well for a month or so after the All-Star break, Howard has been non-existent in the Rockets’ offense. Over his last ten games, he has a TO-adjusted usage rate of only 10.9. I love that his price has come down across the industry and I love his matchup against the Bulls. While Howard makes a strong play in GPPs, I prefer Pau Gasol or Cole Aldrich in cash games.

Trevor Ariza
trevor-ariza-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$5,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.69 FP/Min:0.75
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.3 35.3 0.0 38.7 3.4
FPPG (FD) 24.5 22.7 -1.8 22.4 -2.0
TO-Adj. Usage 13.6 13.9 0.3 12.9 -0.7

Ariza is a streaky shooter and a streaky fantasy option. He has been pretty quiet over the last few weeks, although he is coming off of a 29 fantasy point outing against the Cavaliers. Ariza should see minutes in the upper-30s tonight against the Bulls.

Patrick Beverley
patrick-beverley-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.77
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.4 31.4 3.0 31.9 3.5
FPPG (FD) 20.3 22.1 1.8 22.4 2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 13.5 12.5 -1.0 13.3 -0.1

Targeting point guards against the Bulls has been easy money this season. While Beverley technically doesn’t play a lot of point guard in the Rockets’ offense, he still draws a great matchup against Derrick Rose. He is a viable punt tonight in all league formats.

Michael Beasley
michael-beasley-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,900
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.14 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.8 22.9 3.1 22.7 2.9
FPPG (FD) 22.5 24.7 2.2 22.0 -0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 25.1 23.2 -1.9 23.0 -2.1

Beasley has been very productive while on the floor this season. Using FanDuel scoring, he is averaging 1.14 FP/min. The biggest issue has been his playing time. It has been very inconsistent off the bench and he seems to have a ceiling of around 25 minutes. He can certainly exceed value tonight against the Bulls, but I see him as more of a GPP play.

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM

Brooklyn Nets Cleveland Cavaliers
brooklynnba Vegas Total 210.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Sprd 15.5 Vegas Sprd -15.5
Team Proj. 97.5 Team Proj. 113.0
Team Pace 97.10 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Shane Larkin Sergey Karasev Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Thomas Robinson Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 15 10 4 1 1 Opp. Season 24 25 22 19 25
Last 3 Weeks 12 28 9 7 4 Last 3 Weeks 10 27 28 15 23

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 21-53 — Road: 7-29 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and are staring to rest their stars. I’m not exactly sure what they are saving them for exactly, but they likely just want to get a look at some of their younger players. Tonight they head to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. The Nets are only projected to score 97.5 points, which gives them the second lowest team total and the fourth lowest projected point differential.

The Cavaliers are always a tough team to target players against. On the season, they are ranked third in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. While the matchup isn’t great, the Nets are going to rest Brook Lopez and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson tonight, which opens up a couple of decent fantasy options.

Elite Plays

Thomas Robinson
thomas-robinson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$3,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 11.8 16.6 4.8 22.2 10.4
FPPG (FD) 11.2 11.0 -0.2 21.6 10.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 13.1 -1.4 16.9 2.5

With Brook Lopez out, Robinson is currently projected to start in the frontcourt alongside Thaddeus Young. With Young out of the lineup on Tuesday, Robinson put up 36 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action. He also had over 50 fantasy points in his one other start this season. As long as he draws the start, he will be the most popular value play on the board. He is a strong play in cash games, but could make for an interesting fade in tournaments. We’ve seen duds from Jon Leuer and Dwight Powell in similar spots.

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young
thaddeus-young-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,500 Salary:$6,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 32.6 -0.5 31.8 -1.3
FPPG (FD) 31.2 33.9 2.7 24.1 -7.1
TO-Adj. Usage 18.0 17.5 -0.5 13.9 -4.1

With Brook Lopez out, you would think it would be the perfect time to target Young. However, the Nets are more concerned with giving their young players minutes than their veterans right now. Lopez only played a handful of minutes the other night when Young was rested. Given the fact that he could play anywhere in the range of 15-35 minutes, Young is best suited as a GPP play tonight.

Shane Larkin
shane-larkin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$4,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.5 24.2 2.7 28.2 6.7
FPPG (FD) 16.4 18.6 2.2 24.0 7.6
TO-Adj. Usage 15.3 14.5 -0.8 14.7 -0.6

Larkin has played well since being inserted into the starting lineup. Over his last five games, he is averaging 24 fantasy points in just over 28 minutes of action. Larkin has also seen some garbage time recently, which is great news for his fantasy appeal in what could be a blowout tonight. The only reason Larkin is not listed as an elite play is the fact that there are a ton of great value options on the board tonight.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 52-22 — Home: 30-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers haven’t been playing their best basketball recently, but they are still in cruise control for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. They draw an easy matchup tonight against the Nets in what could easily turn into a blowout. The Cavaliers are listed as 14-point favorites with an implied team total of 112.3 points.

The Nets are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. This is a great matchup for fantasy production, but a lot hinges on whether or not the Nets will be able to keep this game within striking distance. Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith are both listed as questionable.

Elite Plays / Secondary Plays

The fantasy appeal of the Cavaliers’ hinges on the availability of Kyrie Irving. If he is unable to suit up, LeBron James and Kevin Love would become strong plays, even with the high spread. With Irving off of the floor this season, James and Love have usage rates of 36 and 23, respectively. Iman Shumpert would also become an intriguing play if J.R. Smith is unable to suit up.

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,100 Salary:$9,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.26 FP/Min:1.34
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 33.9 -1.7 35.3 -0.3
FPPG (FD) 44.7 46.1 1.4 53.3 8.6
TO-Adj. Usage 27.6 28.3 0.7 30.1 2.5
Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$7,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.11
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.8 28.9 -2.9 32.1 0.3
FPPG (FD) 32.3 30.1 -2.2 36.4 4.1
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 21.7 1.9 22.7 2.9
Iman Shumpert
iman-shumpert-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,600 Salary:$3,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.65
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.2 23.1 -1.1 22.0 -2.2
FPPG (FD) 14.5 14.3 -0.2 14.1 -0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 11.3 10.1 -1.2 12.0 0.8

Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Orlando Magic Indiana Pacers
orlandonba Vegas Total 207.0 indiananba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 99.8 Team Proj. 107.3
Team Pace 98.00 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 9 8 6 8 14 Opp. Season 17 5 15 23 20
Last 3 Weeks 7 4 16 4 19 Last 3 Weeks 6 10 8 20 30

Orlando Magic

Record: 31-43 — Road: 11-26 — Last 10: 3-7

The Magic have lost seven of their last ten games and most of their players are already planning their offseason vacations. Tonight they head to Indiana in a game that means a lot more to the Pacers than it does to the Magic. Orlando is only projected to score 99.8 points, which gives them the third lowest team total and the third lowest projected point differential.

Even though the Pacers play uptempo basketball, they still have a top seven defense. On the season, they are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Nikola Vucevic and Ersan Ilyasova are both expected to play tonight. Their return to the lineup will cut into the minutes and/or production of Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Jason Smith, and Dewayne Dedmon.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Elfrid Payton
elfrid-payton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$5,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.92
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.3 28.7 -0.6 31.1 1.8
FPPG (FD) 24.8 29.9 5.1 33.5 8.7
TO-Adj. Usage 18.1 19.6 1.5 20.5 2.4

All hail Elfrid! The man with the hair has been on fire over his last five games, averaging 33.5 fantasy points in over 31 minutes per contest. He may see a slight usage decrease with Nikola Vucevic back, but the Magic will likely limit Vucey’s minutes. Payton is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board, but he does draw a tough matchup against the Pacers.

Indiana Pacers

Record: 39-35 — Home: 23-14 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pacers have won five of their last ten games and currently hold a two-game lead over the Bulls for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They do not want to give the Bulls any hope and will treat every game as a must win moving forward. The Pacers are listed as 7.5-point favorites tonight. Indiana has the fifth highest team total and the second highest projected point differential.

The Magic have been a mediocre matchup for most of the season, but have been a bottom ten defense over the last month of play. They are now ranked below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With this being a meaningful game for the Pacers, they are an excellent team to target tonight. Monta Ellis and George Hill are decent options at their respective positions, but neither stand out as must plays tonight.

Elite Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.3 34.3 -1.0 32.7 -2.6
FPPG (FD) 39.3 38.9 -0.4 35.8 -3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 25.2 25.1 -0.1 23.1 -2.1

With all of the value plays available tonight, it feels like a stars/scrubs approach is best. Outside of James Harden, George is my favorite superstar in this slate. He has played well over his last ten games, averaging 38.9 fantasy points per contest. He is also one of the few superstars on a team that still has a lot to play for. I have George locked and loaded as my small forward tonight.

Secondary Plays

Ian Mahinmi
ian-mahinmi-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$5,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.93
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.6 29.1 3.5 30.0 4.4
FPPG (FD) 22.7 23.7 1.0 27.5 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 12.6 14.3 1.7 14.3 1.7

Mahinmi has been very good over his last five games, averaging 27.5 fantasy points per contest. The most appealing statistic in that stretch is his playing time – 30 minutes per game. His price is still reasonable across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 20th against centers this season.

Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM

Denver Nuggets New Orleans Pelicans
denvernba Vegas Total 207.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 106.8 Team Proj. 100.8
Team Pace 98.20 Team Pace 99.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Toney Douglas Jordan Hamilton Dante Cunningham Alexis Ajinca Omer Asik
Opp. Season 16 26 17 18 29 Opp. Season 21 27 19 25 11
Last 3 Weeks 26 25 21 25 11 Last 3 Weeks 17 29 27 17 2

Denver Nuggets

Record: 32-44 — Road: 15-24 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games and are now 32-44 overall. They are not going to make the playoffs, but they do draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans in New Orleans. The Nuggets are listed as 6-point favorites with an implied team total of 106.8 points. They have the third highest projected point differential at +4.6.

The Pelicans have been atrocious defensively this season and it has only gotten worse with all of the injuries that they have had. They are now ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Nuggets come into this game relatively healthy, although Jusuf Nurkic has been ruled out. The biggest problem with the Nuggets has been Mike Malone. His rotations have been anything but consistent over the last few weeks. D.J. Augustin is an interesting GPP play, but the guards on the Clippers offer much better value.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nikola Jokic
nikola-jokic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$5,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.09 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.0 24.5 3.5 24.4 3.4
FPPG (FD) 22.9 26.9 4.0 25.6 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 17.7 17.6 -0.1 15.0 -2.7

Jokic is not a great cash game target tonight. His minutes and fantasy production have been too volatile and there are some better options at the position. He has shown 40+ fantasy point upside though, and he draws an excellent matchup against the Pelicans, who are ranked 29th against centers this season. Fire Jokic up in tournaments tonight.

Will Barton
will-barton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,400 Salary:$5,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.7 27.9 -0.8 29.7 1.0
FPPG (FD) 26.6 23.0 -3.6 26.3 -0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 20.1 17.1 -3.0 17.8 -2.3

Barton is finally starting to put up the type of numbers that we were expecting from him when Danilo Gallinari first went down with his injury. Barton has played at least 30 minutes in each of his last three games and he has scored at least 26 fantasy points in each of his last four. Another dud is certainly in the realm of possible outcomes, but so is another strong fantasy outing. The matchup is certainly in his favor.

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 27-47 — Home: 19-18 — Last 10: 3-7

The Pelicans have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 20 games below .500 on the season. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after playing pretty well against the Spurs last night. The Pelicans are only 6.5-point underdogs tonight against the Nuggets. While their team total of 100.8 points doesn’t seem high, but that production has to come from somewhere.

As far as matchups go, the Nuggets are certainly a favorable one to target for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The only injury that we need to monitor here is Norris Cole. He is listed as questionable, but he has missed the last 11 games with a back injury.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Toney Douglas
toney-douglas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.7 28.0 9.3 26.8 8.1
FPPG (FD) 14.9 26.1 11.3 23.2 8.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.7 19.4 2.7 21.6 4.9

Douglas should draw another start at point guard tonight with Jrue Holiday out for the season. He has been a solid addition for the Pelicans this season, averaging 0.79 FP/min. The only thing holding him back has been his playing time. With all of the injuries, you would think that he would be playing 35+ minutes each game. However, he hasn’t cracked the 30 minute mark in any of his last four games.

Tim Frazier
tim-frazier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$4,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.74 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 11.1 25.8 14.7 26.7 15.6
FPPG (FD) 8.2 24.2 16.0 22.0 13.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.7 18.5 3.8 18.2 3.5

Dollar for dollar, I prefer Frazier over Toney Douglas tonight. However, dollar for dollar, Frazier is not an elite value play compared to some of the other plays on the board. I expect Austin Rivers to be highly owned in all league formats, which makes Frazier an interesting pivot in tournaments. He has really played well recently, averaging 24.2 fantasy points in his last ten games.

Jordan Hamilton
jordan-hamilton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,600 Salary:$3,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.6 24.6 0.0 24.6 0.0
FPPG (FD) 21.3 21.3 0.0 21.3 0.0
TO-Adj. Usage 18.6 18.6 0.0 18.6 0.0

Hamilton is one of the many players that the Pelicans have had to sign this season thanks to injuries. He has made the most of his chance to play, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in all three of his games this season. If he draws another start, he should see around 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Nuggets.

Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Oklahoma City Thunder
laclippersnba Vegas Total 209.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Sprd 15.5 Vegas Sprd -15.5
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 112.5
Team Pace 98.10 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Austin Rivers Jamal Crawford Jeff Green Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Cole Aldrich Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 18 21 10 9 4 Opp. Season 6 7 9 11 18
Last 3 Weeks 4 6 17 9 3 Last 3 Weeks 9 8 6 29 5

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 47-27 — Road: 22-15 — Last 10: 5-5

The Clippers have lost five of their last ten games, but it hasn’t cost them in the standings. They are basically locked into the four seed in the Western Conference, which is why they have decided to rest Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and J.J. Redick tonight. Without those three, the Clippers are huge underdogs tonight against the Thunder. They have the lowest team total on the board at only 97 points.

The Thunder are a slightly below-average matchup for fantasy production. ON the season, they are ranked 14th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The main reason that we want to target the Clippers tonight is opportunity. Without Paul, Jordan, and Redick in the lineup, it opens the door for a number of value plays tonight.

Elite Plays

Jamal Crawford
jamal-crawford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.6 27.0 0.4 26.7 0.1
FPPG (FD) 19.3 19.7 0.5 22.2 2.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.9 19.3 -1.6 20.6 -0.2

Crawford the Crawdaddy is my favorite value play on the slate tonight. With all of the Clippers’ players resting, he is expected to draw the start at shooting guard. He will likely be the focal point of the offense and if he plays anywhere north of 30 minutes, he should easily reach and exceed value. The only concern is that the Clippers get down big, but the increased opportunity outweighs the potential blowout.

Austin Rivers
austin-rivers-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,600 Salary:$3,100
Position:PG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.61 FP/Min:0.67
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.6 22.2 0.6 23.1 1.5
FPPG (FD) 13.2 14.5 1.2 15.8 2.6
TO-Adj. Usage 15.9 16.8 1.0 16.6 0.7

For cash games, it is going to be hard to avoid the cheap backcourt combination of Jamal Crawford and Rivers. They should both play a ton of minutes and they are both expected to slide into the starting lineup. Rivers is close to minimum salary tonight and he should play north of 30 minutes tonight. If I could only have one, I would give the edge to Crawford, but I will likely be targeting both players tonight.

Cole Aldrich
cole-aldrich-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,000
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 12.2 12.7 0.5 12.9 0.7
FPPG (FD) 13.5 13.5 0.0 13.2 -0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 10.1 -4.4 9.6 -4.9

With DeAndre Jordan out, Aldrich is expected to draw the start at center. In his two starts for Jordan this season, Aldrich has averaged 19 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and three blocks/steals per game. While I think Aldrich is an excellent play tonight, I wouldn’t expect a repeat of his previous starts this season. Chris Paul played in both of those games and we know how much better bigs are with Paul running the point.

Secondary Plays

Jeff Green
jeff-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$3,900
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.73 FP/Min:0.77
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 25.7 -2.8 27.2 -1.3
FPPG (FD) 20.8 17.2 -3.5 21.1 0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 16.5 -0.3 16.8 0.0

The forgotten man in the Clippers’ lineup tonight is going to be Green. With everyone on Rivers, Crawford, and Aldrich, I expect Green’s ownership to be much lower than it should be. There are only so many value plays that we can use. Green should see a major boost in both minutes and usage and we have seen him step up in this role time and time again in his career.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 52-23 — Home: 30-9 — Last 10: 8-2

The Thunder have won eight of their last ten games and are all but locked into the three seed in the Western Conference. They decided to rest Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka on Tuesday night and we should keep our eye out for that again tonight. The Thunder are currently listed as 15.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 112.5 points.

The Clippers have been a bad matchup for fantasy production this season, but that all changes without Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan in the lineup. The Thunder should be able to score at will, the only concern is that if this game gets out of hand, Billy Donovan will be quick to pull his starters. The Thunder don’t have a ton to play for at this point of the season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,600 Salary:$10,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.56
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.5 32.9 -1.6 33.5 -1.0
FPPG (FD) 48.9 46.6 -2.3 47.4 -1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 28.5 28.7 0.2 30.1 1.6

Westbrook is coming off of a very disappointing game against the Pistons. He did not shoot the ball well from the floor and he just looked out of sorts. While I expect him to play well tonight, the Thunder don’t have a lot to play for. This game could easily turn into a blowout and if that happens, Westbrook could end up playing less than 30 minutes.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,600 Salary:$10,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.29 FP/Min:1.40
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 33.4 -2.5 33.8 -2.1
FPPG (FD) 46.3 47.4 1.2 45.0 -1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 28.6 2.6 27.8 1.8

Durant is in the same boat as Westbrook. The matchup is fine and he could certainly have a big game, but there is a good chance that this game turns into a blowout. With the Thunder all but locked into their playoff seeding, they aren’t going to push their starter’s minutes when they don’t have to.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious