NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 6th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222.5 |  | Vegas Total | 222.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -6.5 | Vegas Spread | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 114.5 | Implied Team Total | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Isaiah Thomas | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Tristan Thompson | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Mario Hezonja | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 29 | 19 | 28 | 24 | DvP | 29 | 24 | 30 | 19 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 27 | 30 | 24 | 26 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 24 | 21 | 28 | 28 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
We kick off tonight’s eight-game slate with a battle between two teams that are trending in the wrong direction. The Cavaliers and Magic have both lost six of their last ten games and they are two of the worst defensive teams in basketball. On the season, Orlando is ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. This game has all the makings of a shootout if it can stay competitive. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 114.5 points, which is the second highest on the board and five points above their season average.
In a vacuum, this is a great opportunity to load up on the Cavaliers. The problem is that this vacuum is full of debris, including trade rumors and locker room fighting. While I’m not sure where the Cavaliers will be in a couple of months, I do expect them to feast on Orlando’s defense tonight. Isaiah Thomas has not shot the ball well this season (36% from the floor, 23% from the three-point line), but is still averaging 24 fantasy points per game. The Magic tend to be a slump-busting matchup for point guards, as they are ranked dead last in efficiency and DvP. It doesn’t feel great paying this much for IT2, but I’m willing to do it in this matchup, especially if Dwyane Wade (questionable) is ruled out.
J.R. Smith has played well recently, but relies on scoring for most of his fantasy production. He should get plenty of open looks against the Magic but is a deep tournament play at best in this slate. I will give Smith a slight bump if Wade is ruled out, but he’d still be a secondary target. LeBron James hasn’t played great over his last five games, but three of those were blowouts. If he plays 38+ minutes against the Magic, he should have one of the better fantasy outings that we’ve seen from him in the last month. James is an elite option in all formats, but he’s not a must play in a slate that features a multitude of superstars. Jeff Green, Tristan Thompson, and Jae Crowder should all play between 22-28 minutes, but they are better lineup fillers for tournaments than actual targets.
Notable Injuries
Dwyane Wade (Questionable)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.2 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.5 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.3 (2 of 16)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Thomas | $6,500 | $6,200 | 23.5 | 2.0 | 26.5 | 2.6 | 0.89 | 27.6% | 30 | 30 | 21 | |
| J.R. Smith | $4,100 | $3,800 | 16.6 | 4.6 | 29.7 | -0.2 | 0.56 | 12.0% | 26 | 29 | 27 | |
| LeBron James | $11,500 | $11,400 | 52.7 | -5.7 | 36.9 | 0.1 | 1.43 | 29.1% | 25 | 19 | 30 | |
| Jae Crowder | $4,000 | $4,000 | 16.5 | -1.3 | 25.4 | -1.5 | 0.65 | 13.4% | 19 | 28 | 24 | |
| Tristan Thompson | $4,700 | $4,400 | 15.1 | 3.0 | 20.1 | 5.3 | 0.75 | 10.2% | 23 | 24 | 26 | |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,800 | $5,000 | 24.1 | -0.2 | 23.3 | 1.5 | 1.03 | 22.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Jeff Green | $3,500 | $3,700 | 18.1 | -8.2 | 22.1 | -4.4 | 0.82 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Isaiah Thomas (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (Cash), J.R. Smith (DK)
Orlando Magic
The Magic are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but they picked up a win over the Heat thanks to some strong play off the bench. Tonight’s matchup is certainly more exploitable from a fantasy standpoint, as the Cavaliers are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Despite missing three of their players (potentially four), the Magic have an implied total of 108 points, which is the seventh highest of the slate and two points above their season average.
If you have ever read the Grind Down, then you know how often I’m drawn in by Elfrid Payton and his upside. I’m going to resist the temptation tonight, despite the truly elite matchup against Isaiah Thomas and the Cavaliers. Payton isn’t priced at a discount and he hasn’t topped 28 minutes of playing time in any of his last five games. That combination is enough for me to steer clear in cash games and single-entry GPPs. D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack have both played well off the bench and are both $3,500 if you are looking for low-owned tournament punts.
Aaron Gordon has been ruled out of tonight’s game and Jonathon Simmons is questionable, which opens up a ton of minutes for Evan Fournier and Mario Hezonja. Fournier has been quiet recently but is priced at a discount on DraftKings ($5,700). Hezonja has some tremendous splits with Gordon out of the lineup, averaging 27 fantasy points per game. To put that into perspective, Hezonja has averaged ten fantasy points per game with Gordon in the lineup. Marreese Speights is a wildcard in tournaments. He’s not capable of handling a 25+ minute workload, but he has shown a 30 fantasy point ceiling a number of times this season.
Notable Injuries
Nikola Vucevic (Out)
Aaron Gordon (Out)
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Jonathon Simmons (Questionable)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.6 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.4 (6 of 16)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.5 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $6,900 | $6,700 | 30.0 | -1.5 | 28.7 | -4.9 | 1.05 | 21.8% | 26 | 29 | 27 | |
| Evan Fournier | $6,300 | $5,700 | 27.7 | -4.2 | 32.3 | -4.0 | 0.86 | 20.8% | 22 | 24 | 24 | |
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,800 | $4,700 | 22.4 | -1.8 | 28.7 | -2.0 | 0.78 | 19.5% | 27 | 30 | 21 | |
| Mario Hezonja | $5,000 | $4,500 | 15.2 | 12.5 | 18.4 | 9.1 | 0.82 | 16.0% | 24 | 19 | 28 | |
| Bismack Biyombo | $5,200 | $5,000 | 17.2 | 1.2 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 0.90 | 10.6% | 18 | 25 | 28 | |
| Marreese Speights | $3,800 | $4,400 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 13.3 | 3.6 | 0.95 | 22.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| D.J. Augustin | $4,100 | $3,500 | 16.4 | 4.1 | 20.3 | 3.2 | 0.81 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Shelvin Mack | $4,500 | $3,500 | 14.3 | 8.3 | 17.4 | 5.6 | 0.82 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Mario Hezonja, Evan Fournier (DK)
Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier (FD), Elfrid Payton (GPP), Shelvin Mack (DK GPP), D.J. Augustin (DK GPP), Marreese Speights (FD)
Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.3 | Implied Team Total | 105.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 16 | DvP | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 9 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 23 | 4 | 13 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are looking for their fifth win in a row tonight. They currently hold a two-game lead over the Raptors in what is now a wide-open Eastern Conference. Home-court advantage could end up being the difference in the playoffs, so this game could have a little added meaning for these two teams. As far as fantasy goes, this is the exact opposite of the Cavaliers-Magic game. Both of these teams have elite defenses, which is why the total is set at only 205.5 points. The Celtics have an implied total of 100.3 points, which is the lowest on the board and three points below their season average.
Kyrie Irving is expected to play tonight after missing the last three games with a quad injury. I don’t expect him to be on a minute restriction, but keep an eye on the injury news just in case. Irving is affordable across the industry but will have to deal with Kyle Lowry. On the season, the Raptors are ranked second in efficiency and seventh in DvP against point guards. There are enough red flags with Irving that I’d rather look elsewhere at his position. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are typically better targets in smaller slates when we don’t have as many options available at their respective positions.
All right, who has the guts to play Terry Rozier at $7,000? While his salary is a bit comical, the sites have to price up players when there are potential injuries. If Rozier was $5,000 and Irving was ruled out, he would be 80% owned, which isn’t fun for anyone involved. The Celtics’ frontcourt seems a bit overpriced as well. It’s tough to pay a premium for Al Horford and Marcus Morris in a matchup against the Raptors. Overall, the Celtics are a team that I plan to have very little exposure to tonight.
Notable Injuries
Marcus Smart (Out)
Marcus Morris (Probable)
Kyrie Irving (Probable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (16 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -3.0 (14 of 16)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,400 | $8,400 | $15,400 | 38.6 | 4.4 | 33.0 | 3.4 | 1.17 | 29.5% | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,600 | $5,800 | $11,900 | 25.6 | -1.8 | 31.5 | 1.3 | 0.81 | 17.9% | 25 | 8 | 23 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,100 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 26.6 | 2.1 | 31.1 | 0.9 | 0.85 | 16.1% | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| Al Horford | $7,700 | $8,000 | $13,900 | 34.2 | 4.1 | 32.5 | -1.5 | 1.05 | 17.8% | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,900 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 15.1 | 1.5 | 18.2 | 1.9 | 0.83 | 14.2% | 16 | 16 | 10 |
| Marcus Morris | $5,100 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 22.0 | 3.4 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 0.92 | 20.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $7,000 | $7,300 | $13,700 | 21.8 | 14.4 | 23.8 | 8.0 | 0.91 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have a chance to close the gap between themselves and the Celtics. With a win tonight, they would pull within a game of the Eastern Conference lead. This is one of those games that will be fun to watch for the casual fan, but brutal for DFS players. On the season, the Celtics are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. The Raptors have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is the seventh lowest of the slate and six points below their season average.
It’s not all doom and gloom for Toronto tonight. The difficult matchup helps in two ways — the players have slightly discounted price points and it will keep ownership down. Kyle Lowry has been a matchup-proof point guard throughout his career and he draws the best individual matchup of the five starters. Kyrie Irving is a below-average defender and Marcus Smart is not available to play off the bench. Lowry actually grades out as a nice play for both cash games and tournaments on FanDuel.
DeMar DeRozan is priced down on DraftKings ($7,700), but the Celtics have been a black hole when it comes to fantasy production for shooting guards. They are ranked first in efficiency and second in DvP against shooting guards. Serge Ibaka has seen his playing time increase recently, but his form is obviously a concern. Jonas Valanciunas is averaging 30 fantasy points over his last five games, but he’s a tough sell at his current price point — $6,900 on FanDuel and $5,500 on DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.4 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -6.2 (16 of 16)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.9 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,000 | $7,200 | $14,600 | 34.8 | -1.6 | 32.6 | -3.0 | 1.07 | 22.0% | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,400 | $7,700 | $14,100 | 39.1 | -2.5 | 34.4 | -2.0 | 1.14 | 28.7% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,100 | 12.9 | -1.0 | 21.3 | -0.6 | 0.60 | 10.8% | 1 | 9 | 2 |
| Serge Ibaka | $4,800 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 25.3 | -3.9 | 28.1 | -0.2 | 0.90 | 16.8% | 12 | 3 | 2 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $6,900 | $5,500 | $10,900 | 24.9 | 4.9 | 21.7 | 4.4 | 1.15 | 18.2% | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Delon Wright | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 19.5 | -5.0 | 21.3 | -1.8 | 0.92 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakob Poeltl | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 17.1 | 0.1 | 17.9 | 2.5 | 0.95 | 12.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (DK), DeMar DeRozan (DK)
Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.5 |  | Vegas Total | 216.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -11.0 | Vegas Spread | 11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 113.8 | Implied Team Total | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Luc Mbah a Moute | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Quincy Acy | Jarrett Allen | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 14 | 17 | 29 | 30 | DvP | 5 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 23 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 16 | 4 | 15 | 26 | DRPM Rat. | 2 | 18 | 1 | 29 | 2 | |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have won eight of their last ten games and find themselves two games behind the Warriors for the best record in the NBA. They draw one of the premier matchups for daily fantasy, as they take on a Nets’ team that is ranked sixth in pace of play, 24th in points allowed per game, and 21st in defensive efficiency. The Rockets come into the game as 11-point favorites with an implied total of 113.8 points, which is the fourth highest on the board.
The Rockets appear to be limiting Chris Paul reps recently. Over his last five games, he is only averaging 30 minutes and 38 fantasy points. Point guard is one of the deepest positions available tonight, which makes Paul an easy fade in a potential blowout. James Harden is averaging 59 fantasy points over his last five games. While the potential blowout is a concern, Harden is certainly playable on FanDuel ($11,200) where the cap is a little softer and where we have to roster two shooting guards.
With Trevor Ariza out again tonight, there will be plenty of minutes to go around for Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, and Gerald Green. This is certainly an exploitable matchup, but there are better value plays available in this slate. Clint Capela has one of the best possible matchups for a center. Jarrett Allen and Jahlil Okafor are two of the worst defenders if you look at their DRPM grades and as a whole, the Nets are ranked 28th in efficiency and 30th in DvP against centers. Capela is volatile, but he makes an excellent tournament play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
Trevor Ariza (Out)
Eric Gordon (Probable)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.0 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (10 of 16)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $9,600 | $9,700 | $17,800 | 42.8 | -4.5 | 31.9 | -2.1 | 1.34 | 25.9% | 24 | 22 | 7 |
| James Harden | $11,200 | $11,600 | $21,900 | 54.1 | 4.9 | 36.0 | 1.3 | 1.50 | 33.8% | 11 | 14 | 16 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | $4,300 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 16.4 | 0.6 | 26.6 | 5.6 | 0.62 | 10.5% | 3 | 17 | 4 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,200 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 19.5 | -2.3 | 28.4 | -1.5 | 0.69 | 13.0% | 28 | 29 | 15 |
| Clint Capela | $7,800 | $7,500 | $13,600 | 35.0 | -1.7 | 26.9 | 2.1 | 1.30 | 17.1% | 28 | 30 | 26 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,400 | $6,000 | $12,300 | 26.6 | -6.0 | 32.2 | -6.3 | 0.83 | 22.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,900 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 16.6 | -0.2 | 27.3 | 4.3 | 0.61 | 8.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gerald Green | $4,800 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 21.2 | 1.0 | 25.4 | 2.1 | 0.84 | 19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – James Harden (FD), Clint Capela (DK)
Secondary Plays – James Harden (DK), Clint Capela (FD)
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and haven’t had much to play for in a few years. While the Rockets play at a fast pace, they are still a difficult matchup for fantasy production. On the season, Houston is ranked eighth in defensive efficiency and fifth in rebounding differential. The Nets come into the game as double-digit underdogs and have an implied total of only 102.8 points, which is the fourth lowest overall and two points below their season average.
Spencer Dinwiddie has played at least 32 minutes in three of his last five games and has averaged 31 fantasy points per game during that stretch. The problem tonight is twofold — he is priced up around the industry and he draws an awful matchup against Chris Paul, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball. Allen Crabbe and Caris LeVert has both struggled over their last five games and can be avoided in all formats. I keep waiting for a good spot to use D’Angelo Russell in tournaments, but I’m not sure this is the right matchup of price point.
The Nets will likely have DeMarre Carroll take a crack at James Harden, which could result in a few extra minutes. However, Carroll is typically the first player on the bench when the Nets are blown out, so he’s best suited as a low-owned tournament play. Jarrett Allen is starting to show what he is capable of. After being announced as the starter four games ago, he has reeled off outings of 15, 37, 35, and 21 fantasy points. At the very least, Allen deserves consideration in large-field tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Out)
Quincy Acy (Questionable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.9 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (13 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (12 of 16)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,200 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 28.7 | 2.3 | 28.5 | 2.2 | 1.01 | 23.2% | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,100 | 21.0 | -3.6 | 28.8 | -1.5 | 0.73 | 16.7% | 17 | 25 | 18 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,300 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 25.9 | -5.6 | 29.4 | 1.8 | 0.88 | 18.0% | 29 | 20 | 1 |
| Quincy Acy | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 20.0 | 4.1 | 0.66 | 12.5% | 5 | 5 | 29 |
| Jarrett Allen | $5,700 | $5,300 | $11,300 | 16.3 | 8.7 | 17.8 | 5.4 | 0.92 | 13.4% | 9 | 23 | 2 |
| Caris LeVert | $4,200 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 24.2 | -11.5 | 26.4 | -6.0 | 0.92 | 20.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| D’Angelo Russell | $5,500 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 26.7 | -3.6 | 23.8 | -4.2 | 1.12 | 31.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – DeMarre Carroll (GPP), Jarrett Allen (GPP)
Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.5 | Vegas Spread | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.5 | Implied Team Total | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Andrew Harrison | Wayne Selden | Dillon Brooks | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 16 | 29 | 22 | 29 | DvP | 11 | 20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 23 | 22 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 12 | 18 | 28 | 11 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have been playing short-handed all season and that’s certainly not going to change tonight. Luckily, the injuries have opened up playing time for other players, which has led to some nice value over the last couple of months. Memphis draws a terrific matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Grizzlies may not have the highest implied total on the board, but it’s two points higher than their season average.
The Grizzlies have decided to hold out Tyreke Evans through the trade deadline. After seeing so many season-ending injuries, it’s hard to blame them. Andrew Harrison has drawn the start at point guard in each of the last three games, averaging 29 minutes and 29 fantasy points per contest. He’s one of my favorite value plays on the board, especially if his ownership is expected to be reasonable. The Hawks have long struggled to defend point guards, ranking 23rd in both efficiency and DvP this season.
Wayne Selden has made the most of his opportunity to start for Memphis, averaging 31 minutes and 20 fantasy points over his last five games. If he’s able to suit up tonight, he’s one of the better value plays tonight on FanDuel ($3,800). If Selden is ruled out, I will turn my attention to Mario Chalmers, who is only $3,600 on FanDuel. Dillon Brooks has seen a healthy dose of playing time recently, but only averages 0.59 fantasy points per minute on the season.
With JaMychal Green back in the lineup, we can avoid both Green and Jarell Martin, as they will eat into each other’s playing time and fantasy production. Marc Gasol has an exploitable matchup against the Hawks, who are ranked 29th in DvP against centers and 26th in rebounding differential this season. Gasol has also been in good form over his last five games, averaging 43 fantasy points per contest. The only issue with Gasol is the price tag — $8,900 on FanDuel and $8,700 on DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
Deyonta Davis (Out)
Tyreke Evans (Out)
Chandler Parsons (Out)
Wayne Selden (Questionable)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 99.6 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.9 (7 of 16)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Harrison | $5,400 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 17.4 | 8.8 | 22.2 | 6.8 | 0.78 | 18.2% | 23 | 23 | 30 |
| Wayne Selden | $3,800 | $4,400 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 19.3 | 12.0 | 0.72 | 20.1% | 15 | 16 | 2 | |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 16.5 | 4.6 | 27.9 | 3.9 | 0.59 | 13.4% | 30 | 29 | 23 |
| JaMychal Green | $4,900 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 22.0 | -0.7 | 26.6 | -3.8 | 0.83 | 16.0% | 17 | 22 | 22 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,900 | $8,700 | $15,800 | 38.1 | 4.8 | 34.3 | -1.2 | 1.11 | 23.6% | 25 | 29 | 15 |
| Mario Chalmers | $3,600 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 18.8 | 5.8 | 22.5 | 1.0 | 0.83 | 18.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jarell Martin | $3,800 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 14.5 | 4.3 | 19.6 | 7.7 | 0.74 | 14.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andrew Harrison, Wayne Selden (FD – if active), Mario Chalmers (FD – if Selden is out)
Secondary Plays – Marc Gasol, Dillon Brooks, Mario Chalmers (FD – if Selden is active)
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have lost six of their last ten games and own the worst record in the NBA. They’ve been a frustrating team to target all season, as they are involved in too many blowouts and have one of the most inconsistent rotations of any team in basketball. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Grizzlies, who are ranked dead last in pace of play and fifth in points allowed per game this season. The Hawks have an implied total of 104 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
If you look at the ‘L5 +/-’ column in the table below, you will see that every notable player from the Hawks has struggled in his last five games. That’s typically not something we want to see in DFS, especially with a matchup like the one tonight. With seven other games on the schedule, I will be avoiding the Hawks completely. There are better options at each and every position. With that said, if I had to choose one player in this lineup, it would be Ersan Ilyasova. He has averaged 26 minutes over his last five games and draws the best matchup of the five starters.
Notable Injuries
DeAndre’ Bembry (Out)
Ersan Ilyasova (Probable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.7 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (9 of 16)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.1 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,000 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 33.4 | -5.2 | 31.5 | -0.6 | 1.06 | 29.4% | 15 | 11 | 22 |
| Kent Bazemore | $6,100 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 28.2 | -2.2 | 28.1 | -2.0 | 1.00 | 20.2% | 13 | 20 | 12 |
| Taurean Prince | $4,700 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 23.9 | -4.4 | 30.2 | -1.5 | 0.79 | 16.8% | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 22.1 | -1.3 | 25.8 | 0.1 | 0.86 | 16.1% | 20 | 14 | 28 |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 12.2 | -3.1 | 16.9 | -4.4 | 0.72 | 9.9% | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| John Collins | $4,600 | $4,600 | $9,100 | 24.0 | -6.6 | 22.1 | -0.7 | 1.09 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marco Belinelli | $3,800 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 18.7 | -2.0 | 23.3 | -1.0 | 0.80 | 20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.3 | Implied Team Total | 101.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 4 | DvP | 10 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 26 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 17 | 16 | 19 | 7 | 27 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 2 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have won seven of their last ten games and have vaulted all the way up to fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings. They have really improved their play defensively, which shouldn’t have been that difficult with their current roster. Tonight they head to New York to take on a Knicks’ team that is ranked right around the league average in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Bucks have an implied total of 103.3 points, which is the fifth lowest on the board.
If you are looking at the table below, you can ignore the numbers for Eric Bledsoe. He only played two minutes in one of those games and only 20 minutes in his first game back from injury. He’s coming off of a 41 fantasy point outing against the Nets and he should see a full complement of minutes tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 20th in efficiency against point guards. Bledsoe isn’t really on my radar, but he could be that 5% owned player that makes a difference in large-field tournaments.
Khris Middleton is priced up around the industry, despite averaging only 33 fantasy points over his last five games. Giannis Antetokounmpo is in the same boat. Over his last five games, he is only averaging 48 fantasy points per contest. While I like that this game features a low spread (two points), the total (204.5) is less than ideal. It has taken about five years, but John Henson is finally playing 30 minutes a night. Henson is worth a look in tournaments, as he is coming off of a 51 fantasy point outing against the Nets.
Notable Injuries
None
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (11 of 16)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,300 | $7,000 | $13,100 | 32.1 | -9.8 | 30.5 | -9.2 | 1.05 | 24.2% | 20 | 24 | 17 |
| Tony Snell | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 14.3 | -2.4 | 29.2 | 1.8 | 0.49 | 9.8% | 4 | 13 | 16 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,500 | $7,600 | $14,400 | 35.0 | -1.9 | 36.9 | -2.3 | 0.95 | 22.4% | 24 | 12 | 19 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,500 | $11,000 | $20,700 | 53.1 | -4.9 | 37.0 | -2.8 | 1.44 | 28.3% | 4 | 10 | 7 |
| John Henson | $5,800 | $5,600 | $11,100 | 23.9 | 5.9 | 25.4 | 4.1 | 0.94 | 13.2% | 9 | 4 | 27 |
Elite Plays – John Henson (GPP)
Secondary Plays – John Henson (Cash), Giannis Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe (GPP)
New York Knicks
The Knicks have lost seven of their last ten games and would be headed for the lottery if the regular season ended today. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Bucks, who have been playing some inspired defense over the last few weeks. Milwaukee is now ranked 11th in points allowed per game and 17th in defensive efficiency. Vegas has clearly noticed the play of the Bucks, as the Knicks’ implied total tonight is three points below their season average.
The Bucks are basically tough on every position except for one. On the season, they are ranked 10th or better in fantasy points allowed to point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, and power forwards. Their biggest weakness has been at center, which is a bit strange considering the fact that John Henson has one of the best DRPM grades of any center this season. In these situations, I tend to trust the efficiency and DvP rankings and they clearly favor Enes Kanter. It doesn’t hurt that Kanter is averaging 29 minutes and 38 fantasy points. I’ve seen a lot of buzz around Kristaps Porzingis heading into this slate, but dollar for dollar, I will give the edge to Kanter, even at his elevated price point.
Notable Injuries
Frank Ntilikina (Questionable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.1 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (13 of 16)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,100 | 21.3 | -4.8 | 26.6 | -2.6 | 0.80 | 17.8% | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,000 | $4,900 | $10,900 | 24.6 | -4.4 | 32.9 | -2.4 | 0.75 | 16.5% | 14 | 3 | 27 |
| Tim Hardaway | $5,900 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 29.1 | -7.1 | 32.7 | -1.6 | 0.89 | 21.9% | 8 | 3 | 25 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $8,800 | $8,400 | $15,300 | 40.3 | 0.4 | 32.8 | -0.7 | 1.23 | 27.3% | 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,900 | $7,300 | $13,600 | 30.0 | 7.8 | 25.7 | 3.2 | 1.17 | 18.6% | 30 | 26 | 2 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 19.4 | -4.5 | 16.7 | -2.4 | 1.16 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Michael Beasley | $4,400 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 21.4 | -2.8 | 19.5 | -3.2 | 1.10 | 24.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |