NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 19th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -5.5, 192.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Bucks Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Monroe
- Miami Heat Proj. Starters – Johnson-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside
| Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 192.5 | | Vegas Total | 192.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.5 | Team Proj. | 99.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.30 | Team Pace | 94.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Greg Monroe | Proj. Starter | Tyler Johnson | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 9 | Opp. Season | 11 | 20 | 26 | 24 | 13 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 20 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 18 | Last 3 Weeks | 17 | 18 | 27 | 22 | 22 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 18-25 — Road: 6-18 — Last 10: 6-4
- Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 93.5 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.8
Happy Tuesday everyone! As always, thanks for reading the Grind Down.
The Bucks have played well over their last ten games, posting six wins during that stretch. Tonight they head to Miami to take on one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season. The Bucks have increased their pace of play recently, but are still only projected to score 93.5 points. That is easily the lowest team total on the board and it is 4.8 points lower than their season average.
- Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.7 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.9 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.9 (4 of 30)
As mentioned above, the Heat have been stout defensively, ranking second in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. To make matters worse, they trail on the Jazz in average possessions per game. This will be a pace-down game for the Bucks against a tough defense.
While this would typically be a spot to fade the Bucks completely, there are only four games on the schedule tonight and options at each position are limited. With Jerryd Bayless back in the rotation, Michael Carter-Williams is an easy fade tonight. With Bayless in the lineup, he is averaging only 24.5 fantasy points per game compared to 33 fantasy points per game with Bayless out.
- Injury Watch:
O.J. Mayo (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe
With such a difficult matchup, we need to be price-sensitive when it comes to the Bucks tonight. Monroe is too expensive on FanDuel, but is worth a look tonight on DraftKings. While I generally don’t like to target centers facing Hassan Whiteside, Monroe has been in great form, averaging 37.7 fantasy points in his last five games.
FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $6,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.3 | Last Five Games: 22.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 37.7
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Antetokounmpo aka the Greek Freak aka the Alphabet aka Gianni Long Legs has been on fire recently. In his last four games, he has scored 52, 41, 52, and 35 fantasy points. His price has come up a bit on FanDuel, but he is still very playable on DraftKings. While I don’t love the matchup, we have to pay attention whenever we can realistically project a player to see 38-40 minutes.
FD — $7,800 — SG
DK — $7,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 18.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 38.9
FP/Game — Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 41.2
Khris Middleton
Dollar for dollar, Middleton is my favorite Bucks’ player to target on FanDuel. He is basically playing Jimmy Butler-type minutes recently, averaging 40.4 over his last five games. Middleton provides a high floor and a fairly high ceiling, even in a difficult matchup against the Heat. He is a borderline elite play in all league formats.
FD — $7,100 — SF
DK — $6,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 21.3
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 40.4
FP/Game — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 33.2
Miami Heat
Record: 23-18 — Home: 15-8 — Last 10: 5-5
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 96.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.0 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6
The Heat have been treading water recently, losing five of their last ten games. They have been terrific at home though, posting a 15-8 record. They are listed as 5.5-point favorites tonight against the Bucks, who continue to be one of the top teams to target players against. The Heat are projected to score 99 points, which is 2.6 points higher than their season average.
- Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (24 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.1 (22 of 30)
The Bucks may play at a slow pace, but they haven’t let that impact their inability to defend this season. They are ranked 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. There are a number of injuries on the Heat. Goran Dragic, Beno Udrih, Josh McRoberts, and Chris Andersen have all been ruled out. There should be plenty of minutes for Dwyane Wade, Tyler Johnson, and Gerald Green.
- Injury Watch:
Goran Dragic (Out)
Beno Udrih (Out)
Josh McRoberts (Out)
Chris Andersen (Out)
Gerald Green (Probable)
Elite Plays
Hassan Whiteside
Whiteside picked up his second triple-double of the season over the weekend, posting a ridiculous 19/17/11 line against the Nuggets. Given Miami’s lack of frontcourt depth and the lack of options at center tonight, Whiteside is my top target at the position. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight against the Bucks.
FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.6 | Last Five Games: 14.1
Min/Game — Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 32.3
FP/Game — Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 39.2
Dwyane Wade
With both point guards ruled out tonight, Wade should see a nice boost in usage against the Bucks. He may even be asked to play a little bit of point guard in this one. He has been dealing with a few nagging injuries, but he is expected to be a full-go tonight at home.
FD — $7,100 — SG
DK — $6,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 26.9
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 28.8
Tyler Johnson
With Goran Dragic and Beno Udrih out tonight, Johnson becomes the top value play in this four game slate. He has been solid in his last five games, averaging 24.5 fantasy points per outing. He should slide into the starting lineup tonight and see 35+ minutes against the Bucks, who have struggled against point guards this season.
FD — $4,500 — PG
DK — $5,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.9 | Last Five Games: 16.1
Min/Game — Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 24.5
Secondary Plays
Chris Bosh
Bosh is one of those players that always seems to have a lower ownership than he should. He plays on a slow-paced team, but he is still option 1B in this offense. He is a safe play tonight against the Bucks, who have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
FD — $7,800 — PF
DK — $7,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 32.9
Luol Deng
Deng may not be the flashiest play in DFS, but he should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight against the Bucks, who have been one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending wing players. Deng may lack upside, but he provides a decent floor at his price.
FD — $4,300 — SF
DK — $4,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.0 | Last Five Games: 12.0
Min/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 33.5
FP/Game — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 19.1
Gerald Green
You know it’s a strange slate when I have six Heat players listed as viable plays in the Grind Down. Green has burned a lot of bridges over the last two games, but should see 30-32 minutes tonight with all of the injuries to the Heat’s backcourt. While I prefer to target him in tournaments, I wouldn’t mind using him in cash games on FanDuel at a price of only $3,700.
FD — $3,700 — SG
DK — $4,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.1 | Last Five Games: 17.0
Min/Game — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 27.1
FP/Game — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 16.6
Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -5, 203 Over/Under
- Minnesota Timberwolves Proj. Starters – Rubio-Wiggins-Prince-Garnett-Towns
- New Orleans Pelicans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
| Minnesota Timberwolves | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 203.0 | | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.30 | Team Pace | 98.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Ricky Rubio | Andrew Wiggins | Tayshaun Prince | Kevin Garnett | Karl-Anthony Towns | Proj. Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 25 | 13 | 20 | 29 | Opp. Season | 18 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 14 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 6 | 13 | 21 | 9 | 20 | Last 3 Weeks | 14 | 11 | 23 | 13 | 11 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 13-29 — Road: 7-12 — Last 10: 1-9
- Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.0 (22 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.0 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0
The Wolves have lost nine of their last ten games and have fallen to 13-29 on the season. Tonight they head to New Orleans to take on a Pelicans’ team that boasts a similar record. The Wolves are projected to score 99 points, which is identical to their season average.
- New Orleans Pelicans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.9 (21 of 30)
The Pelicans have been slightly better over the last three weeks, but they are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 21st of or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. While the Wolves have been on the wrong end of a number of blowouts this season, we shouldn’t have to worry about that tonight with only a five point spread. Shabazz Muhammad has been a nice value play recently, but there are better cheap plays on the board tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Nikola Pekovic (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns has been incredibly efficient this season, averaging over a fantasy point per minute. The issue has been the minutes. Not only have they been scarce, but they have been hard to predict. While I like the price tag, it’s hard to project him for more than 28-29 minutes. I have Hassan Whiteside and Greg Monroe ranked ahead of him at center.
FD — $7,200 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 17.1
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 28.5
FP/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 27.1
Ricky Rubio
Rubio, Rubio, Rubi-OOOOO.
When looking at the Wolves’ players, you will see a common theme – other than Andrew Wiggins, they all play less minutes than we are looking for in DFS. Rubio has massive upside, but will likely only see around 30 minutes tonight against the Pelicans. For that reason, he is a better play in tournaments than he is in cash games.
FD — $6,900 — PG
DK — $6,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 15.5
Min/Game — Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 27.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 25.3
Andrew Wiggins
Wiggins is my favorite target on the Wolves tonight, but he is by no means a must play. He comes into this game in good form, averaging 31.5 fantasy points in 34.8 minutes per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against Eric Gordon, who gave up playing defense years ago.
FD — $6,700 — SF
DK — $6,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 24.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 31.5
New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 13-27 — Home: 8-9 — Last 10: 3-7
- New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.3 (16 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.0 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7
The Pelicans have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 13-27 on the season. The good news is that they are playing at home, where they are close to .500 on the season. The Pelicans are in a good spot tonight against the Wolves. Their team total is set at 104 points, which is the third highest on the schedule tonight.
- Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.2 (12 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.5 (14 of 30)
The Wolves have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 12th and 19th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Vegas likes the Pelicans’ offense in this game, as their total is considerably higher than their season average. The one injury that we need to monitor is Tyreke Evans. He is listed as questionable with a knee injury.
- Injury Watch:
Tyreke Evans (Questionable)
Elite Plays
Jrue Holiday
This pick hinges on Tyreke Evans availability. If Evans is out, Holiday becomes one of the top plays on the board. Even though he won’t start, he will see an uptick in both minutes and usage. With Evans out yesterday against the Grizzlies, Holiday put up 36 fantasy points in 29 minutes of action.
FD — $6,300 — PG
DK — $6,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 27.8
Min/Game — Season: 24.9 | Last Five Games: 29.3
FP/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 34.4
Norris Cole
If Tyreke Evans is unable to play tonight, Cole would draw another start at point guard. In his two starts this season, he has averaged 13 points, six rebounds, four assists, and three steals per game. If Evans is able to play, bump Jrue Holiday down to a secondary play and then avoid Cole in all league formats.
FD — $4,100 — PG
DK — $3,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.8 | Last Five Games: 19.1
Min/Game — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 24.1
FP/Game — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 16.9
Secondary Plays
Anthony Davis
The issue with Davis is twofold. First and most importantly is that he is prone to injuries. He got hurt AGAIN yesterday, but was eventually able to return. The second is that even when he has played a full complement of minutes, he hasn’t been as productive as last season. So basically, we are risking an injury on a player that rarely reaches value. The matchup against the Wolves is a decent one, but I’ll limit my exposure to Davis to tournaments.
FD — $10,300 — PF
DK — $10,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 23.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 36.4
FP/Game — Season: 43.3 | Last Five Games: 42.0
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -8.5, 212.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Thunder Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Denver Nuggets Proj. Starters – Mudiay-Harris-Gallinari-Faried-Jokic
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Denver Nuggets | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 212.5 | | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.5 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.70 | Team Pace | 97.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj. Starter | Emmanuel Mudiay | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Nikola Jokic | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 30 | 10 | 23 | 22 | Opp. Season | 23 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 4 | 25 | 13 | 29 | 13 | Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 5 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 30-12 — Road: 10-7 — Last 10: 8-2
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 108.5 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 110.5 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.0
The Thunder have won eight of their last ten games and are looking like a real threat to the Warriors and Spurs in the Western Conference. The Thunder are projected to score 110.5 points tonight against the Nuggets, which is easily the highest team total on the board. While this game does have the potential to turn into a rout, the spread is at least under ten points.
- Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.3 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.8 (23 of 30)
The Nuggets have been one of the top teams to target players against this season. They are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. With only four games on the schedule, it’s difficult to factor in a potential blowout here. For our purposes, let’s assume the Thunder starters see a full complement of minutes.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook
In a vacuum, I prefer Westbrook over Kevin Durant tonight. However, given the way that the values are shaking out, there appear to be better value options at point guard than there are at small forward. Westbrook still deserves consideration though, as the Nuggets are ranked 26th against point guards this season. He also sees a nice boost against Emmanuel Mudiay, who averages nearly four turnovers per game.
FD — $10,500 — PG
DK — $10,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 25.0
Min/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 29.4
FP/Game — Season: 48.2 | Last Five Games: 44.1
Kevin Durant
Durant has been in decent for recently, but an average of 42.3 fantasy points in his last five doesn’t quite reach value at his price point. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets and if he sees a full complement of minutes, we shouldn’t be surprised to see him top the 50 fantasy point mark.
FD — $9,900 — SF
DK — $9,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.6 | Last Five Games: 27.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 43.7 | Last Five Games: 42.3
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka
Ibaka is just too cheap tonight. He has been in solid form recently, averaging 27.2 fantasy points in 33.7 minutes over his last five games. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, who are ranked 23rd against power forwards this season. Ibaka is a borderline elite play in all league formats.
FD — $6,200 — PF
DK — $5,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.4 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 27.2
Denver Nuggets
Record: 16-25 — Home: 8-12 — Last 10: 4-6
- Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.3 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.0 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7
The Nuggets have been playing better basketball recently, winning four of their last ten games and being competitive in a few others. They are only listed as 8.5-point underdogs tonight against the Thunder at home. Even though Oklahoma City has been stout defensively, the Nuggets are still projected to score 102 points in this matchup.
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 6.5 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 191.0 (6 of 30)
The Thunder have been terrific defensively this season, ranking tenth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. While that would typically be a concern, the Nuggets team total is 2.7 points higher than their season average. Jameer Nelson and Jusuf Nurkic are both listed as questionable tonight. For now, I will continue to avoid the Nuggets’ frontcourt. There are too many players that are seeing too few minutes.
- Injury Watch:
Jameer Nelson (Questionable)
Jusuf Nurkic (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Danilo Gallinari
Gallinari put up a dud the other night against the Heat, but that happens to a lot of players. He has otherwise been in great form, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. He should be able to bounce back tonight at home against the Nuggets in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night.
FD — $7,000 — SF
DK — $7,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 23.9
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 32.6
Emmanuel Mudiay
Mudiay’s fantasy appeal hinges on two separate injuries. If Jameer Nelson is out and if Tyreke Evans plays, Mudiay could be considered an elite play. Mudiay is a high usage player that draws a nice matchup against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder, who are ranked 23rd against point guards this season.
FD — $4,900 — PG
DK — $5,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 18.9
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 29.5
FP/Game — Season: 22.8 | Last Five Games: 21.6
Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -7, 208.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Pacers Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-George-Allen-Mahinmi
- Phoenix Suns Proj. Starters – Knight-Booker-Tucker-Morris-Chandler
| Indiana Pacers | Phoenix Suns | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 208.5 | | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.8 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.40 | Team Pace | 100.80 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Lavoy Allen | Ian Mahinmi | Proj. Starter | Brandon Knight | Devin Booker | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 28 | 27 | 15 | 7 | Opp. Season | 3 | 24 | 3 | 14 | 20 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 30 | 29 | 29 | 17 | 29 | Last 3 Weeks | 9 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 26 | |
Indiana Pacers
Record: 22-19 — Road: 9-13 — Last 10: 4-6
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.8 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1
The Pacers have not played well recently and they have struggled on the road this season. That helps explain why they are only listed as 7-point favorites tonight against the woeful Suns. This game has the second highest total on the board tonight and should be full of fantasy goodness. The Pacers are projected to score 107.8 points, which is 5.1 points higher than their season average.
- Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.8 (25 of 30)
The Suns have been awful defensively this season and they just continue to get worse. They are now ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Rodney Stuckey has already been ruled out tonight. George Hill and Ian Mahinmi are both questionable, which could open up more minutes for Monta Ellis, C.J. Miles, Jordan Hill, and Myles Turner.
- Injury Watch:
George Hill (Questionable)
Ian Mahinmi (Questionable)
Rodney Stuckey (Out)
Elite Plays
Paul George
One of the biggest debates tonight will be George vs. Kevin Durant. George is considerably cheaper than Durant on FanDuel, but there is only a $700 price difference on DraftKings. I will take the easy way out and recommend using George on FD and Durant on DK. The Suns have been awful defensively this season and George should fill up the stat sheet tonight.
FD — $8,700 — SF
DK — $9,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 22.8
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 39.5 | Last Five Games: 38.3
C.J. Miles
Miles is more of a secondary play on DraftKings, but deserves the elite play tag on FanDuel. With Rodney Stuckey out, Miles should see 28-30 minutes tonight against the Suns, who have been awful against wing players this season.
FD — $4,400 — SF
DK — $5,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.1 | Last Five Games: 15.7
Min/Game — Season: 26.9 | Last Five Games: 27.9
FP/Game — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 20.8
Secondary Plays
Monta Ellis
The Pacers are hoping to have George Hill in the lineup tonight, but if he can’t go, Ellis would slide over and start at point guard. If that is the case, Ellis can be bumped up to an elite play. Ellis has been in solid form recently and opposing backcourts continue to rack up big fantasy outings against the Suns.
FD — $6,300 — SG
DK — $6,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.0 | Last Five Games: 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 26.5 | Last Five Games: 28.4
George Hill
If George Hill is able to play tonight, he could be worth a look on DraftKings. Even though he doesn’t have the highest usage rate, any point guard that is projected to see 35+ minutes against the Suns deserves consideration.
FD — $5,800 — PG
DK — $5,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 14.7
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 26.6
Phoenix Suns
Record: 13-29 — Home: 9-11 — Last 10: 1-9
- Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3
The Suns continue to lose and they continue to lose by large margins. They are now 1-9 in their last ten games and are now 13-29 overall. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Pacers in what should be a fast-paced game. The Suns are projected to score 100.8 points, which is slightly lower than their season average.
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.1 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.3 (9 of 30)
The Pacers have been a top ten defense all season long. They are ranked ninth in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. Ronnie Price and Eric Bledsoe are obviously out for the Suns, but they are expected to have Alex Len back in the lineup. Len should cut into the minutes of Tyson Chandler and Jon Leuer.
- Injury Watch:
Alex Len (Questionable)
Ronnie Price (Out)
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight
We all continue to wait for a breakout game from Knight, but maybe it’s just no coming. Even though his production hasn’t gone up since Eric Bledsoe went down, he is still seeing elite minutes (38.8 over his last five games) and he still has a high usage rate in this offense. Give Knight a small boost tonight if George Hill is unable to suit up.
FD — $6,500 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 20.3
Min/Game — Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 38.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 26.5
Markieff Morris
Morris is only one bad play away from getting benched, but for now it appears that he and Jeff Hornacek have squashed their beef. Morris is back in the starting lineup and he has been very good in each of his last three games. Take advantage of the cheap price tag, as he will only get more expensive moving forward.
FD — $4,900 — PF
DK — $4,800 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 22.7
Min/Game — Season: 23.2 | Last Five Games: 22.1
FP/Game — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 22.1
Secondary Plays
P.J. Tucker
Tucker has been playing a lot of minutes recently and he has also seen a small spike in both usage and production. That’s never a bad combination. He will likely draw the matchup against Paul George. While that may not be a favorable matchup, he could see 35+ minutes tonight in what is expected to be a fast-paced game.
FD — $4,500 — SF
DK — $4,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.5 | Last Five Games: 11.3
Min/Game — Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 23.5
Devin Booker
Booker has been frustrating over the last few weeks, but if he can stay out of foul trouble, he should see 30+ minutes tonight against the Pacers, who have struggled against shooting guards this season.
FD — $4,000 — SG
DK — $4,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 17.7
Min/Game — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 11.9 | Last Five Games: 20.9
