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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-16 02:08:34

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Boston Celtics Indiana Pacers
bostonnba Vegas Total 207.0 indiananba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 101.30 Team Pace 99.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Evan Turner Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 11 12 6 12 13 Opp. Season 1 8 19 26 27
Last 3 Weeks 19 2 14 14 19 Last 3 Weeks 6 11 24 15 23

Boston Celtics

Record: 39-27 — Road: 16-16 — Last 10: 7-3

The Celtics are playing some great basketball recently, winning seven of their last ten games. They are now 12 games above .500 and would be locked into the three seed if the season ended today. Tonight’s matchup against the Pacers should be a fun one to watch. Both of these teams have stout defenses, but they both play above the league average in pace. Boston is projected to score 102.5 points, which gives them the second worst projected point differential tonight at -3.6.

The Pacers just continue to hum along as a top ten defensive team. On the season, they are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The big injury news in Boston is that Jae Crowder is not going to play tonight. Evan Turner should draw the start at small forward, while Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart should see a small minutes boost as well.

Using the Court IQ tool here on RotoGrinders, let’s take a look at what happens when Jae Crowder is off the floor:

ScreenShot2016-03-15at10.21.36AM

Elite Plays

Evan Turner
evan-turner-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$5,400
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.3 28.6 1.3 29.0 1.7
FPPG (FD) 23.1 28.4 5.3 27.7 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.3 16.8 0.5 17.8 1.5

If you look at the Court IQ table above, Turner doesn’t see a major spike in usage with Jae Crowder out. That makes sense though, as he enters the starting lineup and is not the primary ball-handler like he is in the second unit. The biggest difference for Turner is minutes. In his four starts this season, he is averaging 35.5 minutes, 14.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.1 blocks/steals. Turner is a player that contributes in all areas of the stat sheet, making him a safe play given his expected minute increase tonight against the Pacers.

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas
isaiah-thomas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.09 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 32.4 0.0 33.3 0.9
FPPG (FD) 35.4 36.3 0.9 38.7 3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 27.4 1.4 26.4 0.4

Thomas already has an elite usage rate, but as you can see from the Court IQ table above, it jumps to 33 when Jae Crowder is off the floor this season. Thomas could also see a small minutes boost, as he and Marcus Smart may end up playing more minutes together with Crowder out. His matchup against the Pacers is less than ideal, but the upside is certainly there for IT2. For tonight, I would consider him a secondary play on FanDuel and a borderline elite play on DraftKings.

Jared Sullinger
jared-sullinger-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:C
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.18
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.1 27.1 3.0 27.1 3.0
FPPG (FD) 26.7 33.3 6.6 35.3 8.6
TO-Adj. Usage 18.8 20.1 1.3 21.6 2.7

Sullinger is one of the most productive big men in the league in a FP/min sense. The issue is that we can never project him to play more than 25-26 minutes per night. He has the upside to play 30 minutes, but he also has the downside of 20-22 minutes. I probably won’t have a ton of exposure to Sullinger tonight, but it’s worth pointing out that he has scored at least 24 fantasy points in each of his last ten games.

Marcus Smart
marcus-smart-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$4,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.1 27.6 0.5 27.5 0.4
FPPG (FD) 21.7 20.2 -1.5 17.6 -4.1
TO-Adj. Usage 15.7 14.4 -1.2 12.3 -3.4

With Jae Crowder out tonight, we can safely project Smart to see 30+ minutes tonight against the Pacers. The matchup leaves much to be desired, but Smart offers good value at point guard in what should be one of the fastest-paced games of the night. I prefer to use him in tournaments, as his ownership should be low tonight.

Indiana Pacers

Record: 35-31 — Home: 19-11 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pacers have lost five of their last ten games and are falling quickly in the Eastern Conference standings. They need a strong push in the last month of play to avoid a first round matchup against the Cavaliers or Raptors. Indiana is favored by two points tonight with an implied team total of 104.5 points. Their projected point differential (+2.6) is right around the average of the 12 teams in action tonight.

The Celtics don’t get the credit that they deserve defensively. On the season, they are ranked 13th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Ty Lawson and C.J. Miles are both questionable for tonight’s game, but neither makes a big fantasy impact. We typically like to target frontcourts against the Celtics, but Ian Mahinmi and Myles Turner aren’t seeing enough minutes to warrant fantasy consideration tonight.

Elite Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.3 34.4 -0.9 34.6 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 38.9 40.0 1.1 42.5 3.6
TO-Adj. Usage 25.2 26.5 1.3 26.8 1.6

George is really the only Pacers’ player that we can trust for fantasy purposes right now. The Pacers’ backcourt is in a tough spot against the Celtics and as I mentioned above, their frontcourt has been too inconsistent. George has really played well recently though, averaging 42.5 fantasy points over his last five games. If I am paying up for a small forward tonight, I slightly prefer George to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Denver Nuggets Orlando Magic
denvernba Vegas Total 212.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 104.8 Team Proj. 107.3
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter C.J. Watson Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon
Opp. Season 22 7 17 20 12 Opp. Season 17 27 15 25 17
Last 3 Weeks 23 14 4 25 24 Last 3 Weeks 9 23 19 17 5

Denver Nuggets

Record: 28-39 — Road: 12-20 — Last 10: 6-4

The Nuggets have been playing some good ball of late, winning six of their last ten games. It is a little too late to make a playoff push, but it’s nice to see their young players gelling late in the season. Denver is listed as a 2.5-point underdog tonight against the Magic with an implied team total of 104.8 points. They have the fifth lowest projected point differential at +2.3.

The Magic have been a mediocre matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked between 14th and 20th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Danilo Gallinari remains out for the Nuggets, which means Will Barton and Jakarr Sampson will continue to see extended minutes. Kenneth Faried is worth a look in tournaments tonight, but if you are considering him in cash games, do yourself a favor and check out his game log.

Once again, let’s take a look at the Court IQ tool to see what happens when Danilo Gallinari is off the floor:

ScreenShot2016-03-15at10.34.41AM

Elite Plays

Emmanuel Mudiay
emmanuel-mudiay-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.4 31.6 1.2 32.0 1.6
FPPG (FD) 24.9 29.6 4.8 30.8 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 21.3 23.0 1.7 25.8 4.4

Mudiay is getting a little too expensive on DraftKings (only $500 cheaper than Isaiah Thomas), but is worth a look as an elite play again tonight on FanDuel. He has been in great form coming into this game, averaging 30.8 fantasy points in his last five outings. If you look at his player table above, his numbers are up across the board over his last ten games. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 22nd against point guards this season.

Secondary Plays

Nikola Jokic
nikola-jokic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.09 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.6 24.5 3.9 25.2 4.6
FPPG (FD) 22.5 28.7 6.1 32.1 9.5
TO-Adj. Usage 17.5 18.4 0.9 19.5 2.0

Jokic doesn’t see a major usage boost with Danilo Gallinari off the floor, but it’s slightly higher at 24 compared to just under 20 on the season. The major concern that I have with Jokic is the same as it always is – minutes. He is prone to foul trouble and sometimes the Nuggets just don’t give him many minutes. I love the upside that he offers in tournaments, but prefer the likes of Bismack Biyombo (if Jonas Valanciunas is out) and DeMarcus Cousins (FanDuel) in cash games.

Will Barton
will-barton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$5,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.7 29.2 0.5 26.3 -2.4
FPPG (FD) 26.8 22.9 -4.0 24.0 -2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 20.3 19.1 -1.2 18.7 -1.6

Barton has not been great since Danilo Gallinari went down with his injury. I get that, but I’m willing to go back to the well after looking at the Court IQ table above. Barton’s usage rate is right around 20 for the season, but it jumps all the way up to 28 when Gallinari is off the floor. Minutes are still a concern for Barton, but I’m willing to fire him up in tournaments tonight against the Magic. He has that 35+ fantasy point type of upside.

Orlando Magic

Record: 28-37 — Home: 17-16 — Last 10: 3-7

At one point this season, the Magic looked like they were locked into a playoff spot with a chance to make it out of the first round. That feels like ages ago though, as they have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 28-37 overall. Orlando draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets in what should be a pace-up game for the Magic. They are projected to score 107.3 points, which gives them the third highest team total and the third highest projected point differential.

The Nuggets are an exploitable matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. We can attack the Nuggets in a number of different ways tonight, as they are ranked 15th or worse in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton have both been ruled out of tonight’s game. Payton’s backup, C.J. Watson, is listed as questionable.

Fire up the Court IQ tool again. This time we will see what happens without Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton on the floor:

ScreenShot2016-03-15at10.42.51AM

Elite Plays

Victor Oladipo
victor-oladipo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$7,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 34.0 1.8 34.2 2.0
FPPG (FD) 28.7 31.3 2.6 34.9 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 20.3 0.7 21.4 1.8

There are two usage numbers that really stand out in the Court IQ table above. The first is the usage rate of Oladipo (28) when Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton are off the floor. He hasn’t shown the 45+ fantasy point upside, but he has been rock solid, scoring in the mid-30s in almost every outing recently. He is my favorite target at shooting guard tonight, as he will likely handle some ball-handling duties, especially if C.J. Watson is also ruled out.

Evan Fournier
evan-fournier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,900
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 32.6 0.6 33.0 1.0
FPPG (FD) 23.1 25.0 1.9 25.9 2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 17.7 0.8 18.2 1.4

The second number that stands out in the Court IQ table is Fournier’s usage rate of 26. On the season, he has a usage rate under 20. That’s a massive boost to his fantasy appeal and I’m willing to pay the mid to high-$5,000 price tag for him on FanDuel and DraftKings. He should be asked to play 35+ minutes tonight against the Nuggets, who are ranked 19th against small forwards over the last three weeks of play.

Secondary Plays

Aaron Gordon
aaron-gordon-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.3 29.3 6.0 28.0 4.7
FPPG (FD) 21.3 28.8 7.4 25.6 4.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 16.6 1.8 16.8 2.0

On paper, Gordon seems like he should be an elite play tonight. The Nuggets don’t defend bigs very well and he should, in theory, see a nice boost with Nikola Vucevic out. The issue here is twofold. First, his minutes have been wildly inconsistent (thanks Scott Skiles). And second, there are three other great power forward options in his price range – Thaddeus Young, Nerlens Noel, and Julius Randle. I hate to say it, but I’m only going to look to Gordon in GPPs tonight.

C.J. Watson
c.j.-watson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,600 Salary:$3,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.59 FP/Min:0.63
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.1 22.9 2.8 25.6 5.5
FPPG (FD) 11.8 12.9 1.0 15.6 3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 11.9 12.1 0.2 13.8 2.0

This pick obviously hinges on whether or not Watson is in the lineup. If Watson plays, he would likely draw the start for the injured Elfrid Payton. He has been a capable backup throughout his career and should be able to pay off his cheap salary. If Watson is unable to suit up, that would open the door for Brandon Jennings, who then would become close to a must start.

Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Brooklyn Nets
philadelphianba Vegas Total 208.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 108.3
Team Pace 100.10 Team Pace 96.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Isaiah Canaan Hollis Thompson Carl Landry Nerlens Noel Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 25 23 21 19 23 Opp. Season 26 17 28 28 30
Last 3 Weeks 18 28 22 13 18 Last 3 Weeks 27 18 16 26 30

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 9-57 — Road: 3-30 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers are basically running on fumes at this point of the season. Half of their team is injured and the other half is quite the mix of characters. Tonight they head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets. Philadelphia is only projected to score 100.3 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board. On the plus side, with all of the injuries, someone is going to have to pick up the slack offensively.

There are a few times during the season when everything aligns for a potential team stack in daily fantasy basketball. Tonight strikes me as one of those opportunities, as the Sixers are playing short-handed and they draw a favorable matchup against the Nets. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Robert Covington, Jerami Grant, Jahlil Okafor, and Richaun Holmes are all out tonight.

I would run the Court IQ tool here, but there is literally a sample size of zero without one of the four players listed above.

Elite Plays

Nerlens Noel
nerlens-noel-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$6,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.1 28.0 -1.1 34.4 5.3
FPPG (FD) 27.2 26.5 -0.7 34.0 6.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 15.9 1.7 16.6 2.4

We know that Noel sees a boost when Jahlil Okafor is out. We also know that he sees a boost when Jerami Grant it out. There is no reason to believe that he won’t see a major boost when Robert Covington and Richaun Holmes are also out. Noel is my favorite power forward target tonight, as he should be able to fill up the stat sheet against the Nets. His price is too cheap for his new role and the Nets are ranked 23rd against centers this season.

Carl Landry
carl-landry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$3,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 13.1 17.1 4.0 19.0 5.9
FPPG (FD) 13.3 19.1 5.8 20.7 7.4
TO-Adj. Usage 20.9 23.0 2.2 22.9 2.1

We can’t project Landry to play more than 25 minutes or so tonight, but as long as we feel comfortable in that projection, he deserves consideration as an elite play. The old man can still get it done on the basketball floor, averaging 1.02 FP/min this season. He also comes into this game in good form, scoring at least 26 fantasy points in three of his last four games.

Secondary Plays

Ishmael Smith
ish-smith-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.7 33.3 5.6 34.9 7.2
FPPG (FD) 27.0 30.8 3.8 30.8 3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 21.1 -1.0 20.9 -1.1

Smith has played well over his last ten games, averaging 30.8 fantasy points per contest. He just hasn’t had that upside that he had earlier in the season. The good news is that his minutes are also trending upward and his usage rate should be through the roof with all of the injuries to his teammates. Smith is in play in all league formats tonight against the Nets, but I’ll label him as a secondary play given all of the options at point guard.

Hollis Thompson
hollis-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$4,300
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.56 FP/Min:0.62
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.4 30.8 3.4 33.9 6.5
FPPG (FD) 15.4 19.3 4.0 22.5 7.2
TO-Adj. Usage 12.9 14.4 1.5 14.0 1.1

Thompson is a borderline elite play tonight strictly thanks to his playing time. He is averaging 33.9 minutes over his last five games and he could see minutes in the high-30s tonight. He isn’t the most productive player in a FP/min sense, but he isn’t afraid to jack up shots. This could be a matchup where he gets plenty of open looks from the three point line.

Isaiah Canaan
isaiah-canaan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$4,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.67 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.9 27.7 2.8 28.9 4.0
FPPG (FD) 16.6 18.0 1.4 19.5 2.9
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 17.8 1.0 17.0 0.2

Canaan is the final Sixers’ player on my radar tonight. Like his teammates, he is expected to see a boost in minutes and/or usage with all of the injuries to Philadelphia. Canaan is cheap and should see 30+ minutes in a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 25th against point guards and 23rd against shooting guards.

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 18-48 — Home: 11-23 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games, but should be able to pick up a win tonight against the depleted Sixers. Brooklyn is listed as an 8-point favorite with an implied team total of 108.3 points. Not only do the Nets have the second highest team total, but they also have the highest projected point differential at +10.6.

Teams facing the Sixers is like a hot knife going through butter. It doesn’t take a lot of effort to have success. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 24th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Wayne Ellington and Willie Reed are both questionable tonight, but neither makes a large fantasy impact either way.

Elite Plays

Thaddeus Young
thaddeus-young-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$7,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.3 36.4 3.1 37.0 3.7
FPPG (FD) 30.8 33.7 3.0 31.7 0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 18.2 18.1 -0.1 20.1 1.9

Even though Nerlens Noel is my favorite play at power forward, I plan on using Young everywhere that I can tonight. In his meetings against his former team this season, he is averaging 35.5 fantasy points per game. He should be able to dominate this Sixers’ frontcourt that is both undersized and undermanned. It also helps that his minutes are trending upward, as he is averaging 36.4 over his last ten games.

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez
brook-lopez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.14
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.8 34.8 1.0 35.6 1.8
FPPG (FD) 36.1 38.7 2.6 39.5 3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 22.7 23.0 0.3 21.4 -1.3

For whatever reason, Lopez hasn’t had the best track record against the Sixers. In his last six meetings against Philadelphia, he has only cracked the 28 fantasy point mark one time. That did, however, come in their last meeting. In theory, Lopez should dominate against a Sixers’ team that can’t rebound or defend the paint. I’m going to chalk his bad splits up to noise. I’ll consider him a borderline elite play in cash games and an elite GPP play tonight.

Bojan Bogdanovic
bojan-bogdanovic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,100 Salary:$4,600
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.58 FP/Min:0.63
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.6 30.3 3.7 30.6 4.0
FPPG (FD) 15.3 19.6 4.2 19.0 3.7
TO-Adj. Usage 14.6 17.5 2.8 16.1 1.5

Outside of Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez, there isn’t a ton to like on the Nets. Bogdanovic is probably the next best play and he is only listed here because they are facing the Sixers. Anytime we can project someone to play at least 30 minutes against the Sixers, we have to at least give them consideration. This is the type of matchup where Bogdanovic should get plenty of open looks, especially since Robert Covington has been ruled out.

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks
torontonba Vegas Total 206.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 104.3 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 95.50 Team Pace 96.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Jerryd Bayless Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 7 25 23 21 20 Opp. Season 3 14 4 4 19
Last 3 Weeks 2 15 21 7 29 Last 3 Weeks 3 16 11 4 16

Toronto Raptors

Record: 44-21 — Road: 18-13 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and find themselves two and a half games behind the Cavaliers for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. They are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back tonight against the Bucks in Milwaukee. Toronto is projected to score 104.3 points, which is the fifth lowest team total on the board.

The Bucks have been an exploitable matchup for fantasy production this season, ranking 18th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The best part about the Bucks is that their DvP rankings make it easy to break down the matchup. They are tough on point guards (even without Michael Carter-Williams) and they are ranked 20th or worse against the other four positions on the floor. Jonas Valanciunas hurt his hand in last night’s game and is currently listed as questionable. With the Raptors making a strong push this season, I wouldn’t be surprised if they play it safe and hold him out tonight.

Elite Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$7,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.2 36.6 0.4 37.7 1.5
FPPG (FD) 35.5 37.8 2.2 40.6 5.0
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 26.7 0.7 27.4 1.4

I may be in the minority here, but I prefer DeRozan over Kyle Lowry tonight. He is cheaper and he draws the better matchup of the two, as the Bucks are ranked 25th against shooting guards this season. Only helping his case, DeRozan comes into this game in slightly better form than Lowry, averaging 40.6 fantasy points over his last five games. Victor Oladipo is still a better play dollar for dollar, but DeRozan is a strong play in all league formats tonight.

Bismack Biyombo
bismack-biyombo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$3,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.2 22.5 0.3 23.3 1.1
FPPG (FD) 17.8 17.7 -0.2 18.3 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 8.6 7.9 -0.7 6.9 -1.7

This pick hinges on the availability of Jonas Valanciunas. As I said above, if I had to guess, I would say that the Raptors are going to hold him out tonight. If that’s the case, Biyombo would draw the start at center. In 18 starts this season, he is averaging 6.3 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks/steals per game.

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$8,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.14
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.3 40.3 3.0 40.7 3.4
FPPG (FD) 39.8 43.4 3.6 39.1 -0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 22.5 22.7 0.1 21.3 -1.3

Lowry had himself a monster game against the Bulls last night. While he is generally matchup-proof, he has some tougher sledding tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked seventh against point guards on the season and second against point guards over the last three weeks. I still like Lowry as a tournament play because we know the type of upside that he provides, but I will not be looking his way in cash games.

Patrick Patterson
patrick-patterson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$3,600
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.58 FP/Min:0.62
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.5 30.2 4.7 29.3 3.8
FPPG (FD) 14.8 15.6 0.8 19.7 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 10.9 10.5 -0.4 12.9 2.0

Patterson would also see a small boost if Jonas Valanciunas is unable to suit up tonight. We have also seen the Raptors try to get Luis Scola some rest, so this could be a spot where Patterson is asked to play 30+ minutes. He isn’t the most productive player while on the floor, but he provides good value at power forward if you are looking to differentiate your lineups.

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 29-38 — Home: 20-12 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bucks have won five of their last ten games and have played their best basketball at home this season. Tonight they are listed as 2-point underdogs against a tough Raptors’ team. Milwaukee is only projected to score 102.3 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board. The only good news about this matchup is that the Raptors are playing in the second half of a back-to-back.

The Raptors have a top five defense this season. They are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. This is not a great matchup for fantasy production and given the elevated price points of the Bucks’ players, this could be a good time to fade Milwaukee as a whole.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo
giannis-antetokounmpo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,900 Salary:$9,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.4 38.2 2.8 38.8 3.4
FPPG (FD) 33.8 47.8 13.9 49.8 16.0
TO-Adj. Usage 18.5 22.4 3.9 23.6 5.1

It’s hard to describe the transformation that we have seen from Giannis over the last month of play. He has four triple-doubles in his last 11 games and he is averaging 49.8 fantasy points over his last five games. He is playing at a LeBron James and Kevin Durant type of level. While the production warrants the increase in price, I’m having a hard time paying up for him tonight in a tough matchup against the Raptors. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Paul George against the Celtics.

Jerryd Bayless
jerryd-bayless-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$4,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.68 FP/Min:0.75
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.3 35.0 5.7 37.4 8.1
FPPG (FD) 19.9 22.1 2.2 23.1 3.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.6 13.3 -1.3 12.3 -2.2

Bayless hasn’t exactly been on fire recently, but he has played at least 38 minutes in each of his last four games. He will likely play close to that again tonight and even though the matchup is less than ideal, he still has a decent chance of reaching value. He basically needs 23-24 fantasy points, which he is certainly capable of.

Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM

Los Angeles Clippers San Antonio Spurs
laclippersnba Vegas Total 200.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 98.40 Team Pace 96.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Jeff Green DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 4 1 1 3 3 Opp. Season 6 5 11 8 21
Last 3 Weeks 4 4 5 2 2 Last 3 Weeks 15 1 25 24 20

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 42-23 — Road: 20-11 — Last 10: 6-4

The Clippers have stumbled a bit recently, but they are still 42-23 on the season and are still in the running for the three seed in the Western Conference. They draw an awful matchup tonight against the Spurs in San Antonio. Los Angeles is only projected to score 95.5 points here. Not only is that the lowest team total, but it is also the lowest projected point differential at -9.1.

The Spurs are the creme of the crop when it comes to defense in the NBA. They are ranked first or second in all four of the categories listed above. Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan both have decent track records against the Spurs this season, but there is no need to force either player into your lineup tonight. This is such a bad spot for the Clippers that I will be avoiding them altogether, even in a small six game slate.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 56-10 — Home: 32-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Spurs remain unbeaten at home this season with a perfect 32-0 record at home. Vegas isn’t expecting that streak to end tonight, as San Antonio is listed as a 9-point favorite against the Clippers. The Spurs are projected to score 104.5 points, which is the sixth highest team total and it gives them the third lowest projected point differential on the board.

The Clippers are a much better defensive team than they are given credit for. On the season, they are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. We can generally use Spurs when the spread is set at less than ten points, but given the difficult matchup, I am going to tread lightly here. LaMarcus Aldridge has been on a tear recently, but I will be fading him tonight. I prefer the likes of Thaddeus Young, Nerlens Noel, and Julius Randle at power forward.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kawhi Leonard
kawhi-leonard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.12 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 35.4 2.5 35.4 2.5
FPPG (FD) 37.0 42.5 5.5 40.4 3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 22.1 24.8 2.8 26.3 4.3

Leonard will be a popular play tonight. While I have no issues using him against the Clippers, I may look elsewhere at small forward. This is an awful game environment, as we have the dreaded combination of a large spread and a low total. Leonard can certainly play well in difficult matchups and he’s my favorite Spurs’ player of the bunch, but I may have lower exposure to him than the field tonight. This game in general just lacks fantasy appeal.

Tim Duncan
tim-duncan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$4,500
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.1 23.6 -1.5 26.1 1.0
FPPG (FD) 24.4 22.3 -2.1 26.6 2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.7 15.2 0.6 15.4 0.7

If you are looking for a contrarian play tonight in tournaments, Duncan could be worth a look. He hasn’t had a ton of success against the Clippers this season, but he did average 36.1 fantasy points per game in their four meetings last season. DeAndre Jordan is a good shot-blocker, but he is not a great low-post defender. The Clippers are ranked 21st against centers this season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious