Sign In $

You must be a member to view this Article.

NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-09 03:32:06

Jump to Page 1 2

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

grind%20down%20article%20faq

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers
atlantanba Vegas Total 207.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Team Total 99.5 Team Total 108.0
Pace +/- 1.1 Pace +/- 2.9
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Thabo Sefolosha Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 8 27 8 3 24 2016-17 30 17 3 5 5

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have played well to start the season, sporting a 4-2 record overall. They have picked up their pace of play this season, ranking seventh in the NBA. This had led to a higher scoring offense, as they are averaging 107.3 points per game. While a faster pace does help the fantasy appeal of the Hawks as a whole, they draw one of the most difficult matchups in all of basketball. The Cavaliers will be a top five defense by the end of the season. They are currently ranked eighth or better in fantasy points allowed to point guards, small forwards, and power forwards. The Hawks come into the game as 8.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 99.5 points, which is the second lowest in the slate.

Dennis Schroder has been more inconsistent than I was expecting heading into the season. After the departure of Jeff Teague, I really expected Schroder to shine, as he has been a player that the Hawks’ organization has been high on for years. I’m still expecting good things from him moving forward, but he’s a bit overpriced for tonight’s matchup against the Cavaliers. He’s more of a GPP play here. Kyle Korver is expected to miss tonight’s game, as his wife just gave birth to a baby boy. Korver has averaged 25 minutes per game this season and I expect that to be split between Thabo Sefolosha, Kent Bazemore, and Tim Hardaway Jr. Sefolosha stands to gain the most from Korver’s absence, as he will enter the starting lineup. He is a intriguing punt play in all formats, especially on Rosters ($6,000). Bazemore has been productive this season, but hasn’t been getting a full allotment of minutes. Look for him to top 30 tonight if the game stays close. The Hawks will need a big game from Paul Millsap if they are going to keep this close. I like his matchup against Kevin Love, although the Cavaliers have been tough on power forwards this season. Dwight Howard is having a resurgent season and is worth a look on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Dennis Schroder $6,000 $6,100 $10,400 0.91 29.7 1.5 26.9 1.8 27.4% 2.0% 8
Thabo Sefolosha $4,300 $4,000 $6,000 0.97 22.5 0.7 21.9 -4.5 15.3% -1.3% 27
Kent Bazemore $4,700 $5,000 $8,900 0.74 27.9 2 20.7 4.8 19.2% -0.6% 8
Paul Millsap $8,000 $7,900 $13,700 1.15 31.9 1.9 36.7 -2.7 28.0% -2.1% 3
Dwight Howard $8,200 $7,800 $12,100 1.34 28.2 1.8 37.7 5.1 24.2% 3.6% 24
Tim Hardaway Jr. $3,600 $3,600 $6,000 0.82 20.3 2.2 16.7 1.3 22.8% -2.2% 27

Elite Plays – Thabo Sefolosha

Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap, Kent Bazemore, Dwight Howard, Dennis Schroder (GPP)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are a perfect 6-0 to start the season. They are the only team in the NBA that is undefeated and if they really wanted, they could challenge the Warriors for homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. Their pace is right around the league average, but they are one of the most efficient offenses in basketball. They are currently ranked second in points scored per game at 112.3. They are listed as 8.5-point favorites tonight against the Hawks at home. This isn’t what I would call a favorable matchup, but the Cavaliers still have the second highest implied total in the slate. On the season, Atlanta is ranked inside the top ten in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game.

It’s hard not to like the spot for Kyrie Irving tonight. Dennis Schroder hasn’t been an awful defender in his career, but he’s taken a big step back this season. The Hawks are ranked dead last against point guards, which says a lot given how good their defense has been as a whole. Irving has a true usage rate over 30% and he is averaging close to a fantasy point per minute. He is an elite point guard play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. J.R. Smith is a fine value at shooting guard, but I’m always a little hesitant to roster players that rely so heavily on scoring. I always give LeBron James a slight boost in games that are expected to be close. While the Cavaliers are big favorites, the Hawks are talented enough to keep this game within striking distance. Kevin Love draws a difficult matchup against Paul Millsap, but is a fine GPP play. Even though Tristan Thompson has scored at least 22 fantasy points in five straight games, I have little interest in targeting centers against Dwight Howard.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kyrie Irving $7,300 $7,400 $12,200 0.97 34.6 -0.4 33.4 -2.7 30.7% -0.4% 30
J.R. Smith $4,300 $4,400 $8,500 0.62 31.5 2.4 19.5 0.8 13.8% -2.4% 17
LeBron James $9,900 $9,900 $15,100 1.31 36.4 -0.4 47.7 3.4 32.8% 1.8% 3
Kevin Love $7,300 $7,300 $11,300 1.07 32.4 1.3 34.7 -0.4 26.6% -1.0% 5
Tristan Thompson $4,800 $5,100 $8,300 0.84 28.9 0.2 24.2 5.9 8.3% 1.2% 5

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love, J.R. Smith

Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves Brooklyn Nets
minnesotanba Vegas Total 205.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Team Total 104.8 Team Total 100.8
Pace +/- 3.6 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Kris Dunn Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Bojan Bogdanovic Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 22 28 27 26 27 2016-17 18 1 19 3 27

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves were expected to take a giant leap forward this season and many pundits even predicted that they would make the playoffs. After a 1-4 start, everyone seems to be jumping overboard. I’m not overly concerned about the slow start, as we have a new coach and one of the youngest rosters in the NBA. I fully expect Tom Thibodeau to turn things around. Minnesota has done a nice job defensively, they just haven’t been able to get it going on the other end of the floor. The Wolves draw an excellent matchup tonight against the Nets, who have been the best team to target players against so far this season (ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed per game). The Wolves are 4-point favorites here with an implied total of 104.8 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and 3.2 points above their season average.

Ricky Rubio has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Kris Dunn will draw another start at point guard. In his first three career starts, he is averaging six points, four rebounds, six assists, and three steals in 29 minutes per game. He was never an elite scorer in college and I’d like to see him be a bit more aggressive offensively. With that said, he is still an elite value play on FanDuel at only $4,800. Zach LaVine has seen a small usage bump with Rubio out and remains a strong play at shooting guard in what should be an uptempo game against the Nets. Andrew Wiggins has immense upside, but 79% of his fantasy production has come from points scored. Basically, if he has an off night shooting the ball, he’s going to put up a dud because he provides very little when it comes to peripheral stats. Gorgui Dieng is coming off of two bad fantasy outings in a row. His price is a bit high, but he makes a nice GPP play as a bounce-back candidate in a favorable matchup. One of my favorite plays in the whole slate is Karl-Anthony Towns. He had the murderer’s row of matchups in his first three games, but has scored 56 and 40 fantasy points in his last two outings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kris Dunn $4,800 $5,400 $8,300 0.80 24.5 4.6 19.6 4.5 19.4% 0.8% 22
Zach LaVine $5,900 $6,300 $9,700 0.81 32.3 -1.9 26.0 -2.2 22.6% 0.4% 28
Andrew Wiggins $6,000 $6,000 $10,600 0.80 32.4 -2.1 26.1 -4.3 26.8% -1.2% 27
Gorgui Dieng $6,000 $6,500 $10,600 0.88 31.5 -1.9 27.8 -6.2 16.2% 0.9% 26
Karl-Anthony Towns $8,700 $8,500 $13,900 1.13 34.4 -1.6 38.7 2.9 26.3% 2.3% 27

Elite Plays – Kris Dunn (FD), Zach LaVine, Karl-Antony Towns

Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (DK), Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are only 2-4 to start the season, but you can make the case that they are actually over-achieving given the lack of talent on their roster. They are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule because they play at a fast pace and are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Nets are only 4-point underdogs tonight against the Wolves in what should be a great game to target for fantasy production. The Wolves are far from an ideal matchup (ranked tenth in points allowed per game), injuries to the Nets have opened up a few viable plays tonight. Brooklyn has an implied total over 100 points, which stands out given their tough matchup.

Jeremy Lin has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and it looks like Greivis Vasquez will miss the game as well. Isaiah Whitehead drew his first NBA start the other night against the Hornets, scoring 18 fantasy points in 23 minutes of action. I’m pleased with the 18 fantasy points, but was a little disappointed to see him only play 23 minutes. I don’t expect that number to go up tonight given the fact that Randy Foye will be making his season debut. Sean Kilpatrick has been a bright spot for the Nets this season, averaging 0.99 fantasy points per minute with a true usage of 26.9%. He played 33 minutes in Lin’s absence the other night and should push for 30+ minutes again tonight. Bojan Bogdanovic and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have been too inconsistent for my liking, both are GPP dart throws at best. Trevor Booker has been a per-minute monster this season. He remains a viable play on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Rosters. I’m going to fade Brook Lopez tonight against Karl-Anthony Towns, who is bigger, faster, better, and stronger.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Isaiah Whitehead $4,400 $3,900 $6,000 0.58 15.3 6.1 8.9 3.5 25.3% 1.4% 18
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,200 $4,400 $7,900 0.74 28.1 0.6 20.7 -2.7 21.9% -0.6% 1
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $3,900 $4,000 $8,200 0.58 25.9 2.3 15.0 5.9 12.5% -0.5% 19
Trevor Booker $5,300 $4,900 $7,900 1.04 26.5 -0.7 27.6 -3.8 15.9% -1.0% 3
Brook Lopez $6,900 $6,500 $11,600 1.03 25.2 1.2 25.8 3.7 31.3% 0.1% 27
Sean Kilpatrick $4,900 $5,400 $7,100 0.99 26.2 2.4 26.0 3.8 26.9% 1.8% 1

Elite Plays – Sean Kilpatrick

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Whitehead, Trevor Booker

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Memphis Grizzlies
denvernba Vegas Total 202.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 100.0 Team Total 102.5
Pace +/- -2.9 Pace +/- 3.8
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Nikola Jokic Jusuf Nurkic Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Chandler Parsons JaMychal Green Marc Gasol
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 24 14 2 10 7 2016-17 29 26 1 29 1

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have played well this season. They own a 3-3 record and have been competitive in every game but one. They are ranked fourth in pace of play and 11th in points scored per game. They come into tonight’s contest as 2.5-point underdogs against the dinosaurs of the NBA. Technically, they are the Grizzlies, but Memphis seems to be stuck in the old school way of playing basketball. They are one of the slowest paced teams in the league and are ranked 14th or better in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards, and enters. With an implied total of only 100 points, the Nuggets aren’t in the best spot for fantasy production tonight.

The one position that the Grizzlies have struggled against so far this season is point guard, but that’s an aberration more than a trend. Mike Conley is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA and the Grizzlies have been ranked inside the top ten against point guards seemingly every year. With so many great options at point guard, I will not be buying any shares of Emmanuel Mudiay. Gary Harris is back in the lineup for the Nuggets and his minutes are expected to go up tonight. Unfortunately, he’s unplayable until he reaches the 30-minute mark. Danilo Gallinari has been playing a ton of minutes, but is only averaging 24.5 fantasy points per game. Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic are both great on a per-minute basis, but both are averaging less than 26 minutes per game. All in all, this just isn’t a great team to target in DFS tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Emmanuel Mudiay $5,800 $6,000 $9,100 0.84 32.5 -0.6 27.4 -1.1 28.4% 0.0% 24
Gary Harris $4,600 $4,600 $7,900 0.82 18.6 0 15.2 0.0 19.3% 0.0% 14
Danilo Gallinari $6,100 $5,800 $10,900 0.66 37.3 -1.5 24.5 0.3 17.5% -0.6% 2
Nikola Jokic $5,400 $5,700 $9,600 0.99 22.8 -3 22.5 -4.8 21.2% -3.9% 10
Jusuf Nurkic $5,800 $6,300 $10,000 1.24 25.1 -3.8 31.2 -5.7 23.5% 1.2% 7
Kenneth Faried $5,100 $4,700 $8,300 1.00 22.1 -2.6 22.1 -2.4 16.6% 1.8% 10
Jameer Nelson $4,200 $3,900 $6,000 0.74 24.9 6.2 18.4 4.7 20.4% -0.7% 24

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are 3-4 to start the season, but they have yet to play a game with all of their starters healthy. They are always one of my least favorite teams to see on the schedule because they play at a slow pace and typically don’t score a lot of points. They come into tonight’s game as 2.5-point favorites against the Nuggets, who are ranked right around the league average in defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Grizzlies have an implied total of 102.5 points, which is the seventh highest of the 12 teams in action.

Mike Conley is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, as he is dealing with a left hamstring injury. If he is unable to suit up, Wade Baldwin would likely draw the start and become a very interesting punt play. He is close to min-salary on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Rosters. Tony Allen is also listed as questionable tonight. If he is unable to go, James Ennis would likely enter the starting lineup. Chandler Parsons really struggled in his first game of the season, scoring only 3.6 fantasy points in 22 minutes. Until he gets his feet back under him and a full complement of minutes, I will be avoiding him in DFS. Marc Gasol appears to be a solid cash game option tonight. He is averaging 34 fantasy points per game and he has a true usage of 28.9%. My goal is to find room for Karl-Anthony Towns, but Gasol is a fine alternative at center.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Mike Conley $7,100 $6,900 $11,300 1.05 32.8 2.6 34.5 3.5 31.6% -2.1% 29
Tony Allen $4,000 $3,600 $6,800 0.67 21.9 1.1 14.7 1.6 17.8% -0.3% 26
Chandler Parsons $5,900 $5,900 $10,400 0.17 21.6 0 3.6 0.0 19.7% 0.0% 1
JaMychal Green $4,400 $4,300 $8,100 0.64 29.5 -2.6 18.9 -0.1 14.3% 0.2% 29
Marc Gasol $7,100 $7,000 $11,100 1.04 32.6 1.9 34.0 1.6 28.9% 0.0% 1
Zach Randolph $5,400 $5,500 $9,300 1.10 21.3 1.3 23.5 0.4 32.6% -0.4% 29
Wade Baldwin IV $3,600 $3,000 $6,000 0.68 20.9 -2 14.3 -5.0 20.3% 0.0% 29

Elite Plays – Marc Gasol

Secondary Plays – Wade Baldwin, Zach Randolph (GPP)

Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Portland Trail Blazers
phoenixnba Vegas Total 217.0 portlandnba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 104.8 Team Total 112.3
Pace +/- 1.9 Pace +/- 4.6
Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker T.J. Warren Jared Dudley Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 20 14 16 21 21 2016-17 27 12 26 28 4

Phoenix Suns

Editor’s Note: Tyson Chandler has been ruled out. Alex Len is expected to start in his place.

The Suns are 2-5 to start the season, but one of their wins came against this Blazers’ team. Phoenix has played at a very fast pace, which helps explain why they are ranked tenth in points scored per game and 30th in points allowed per game. This projects to be the fastest-paced game in the slate and the over/under of 217 points is very appealing from a fantasy standpoint. The Suns are 7.5-point underdogs here, but they still have the fourth highest implied total in the slate at 104.8 points. The Blazers are ranked in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game.

Assuming this game stays close, it should be the top game to target tonight. Both of these teams like to push the pace and both are bottom ten teams in terms of defensive efficiency. Eric Bledsoe production has taken a dive in the last three games, but we can still project him to play around 35 minutes in an uptempo game against Damian Lillard. I don’t see Bledsoe as a must play for cash games, but I will have quite a bit of exposure to him in tournaments. Devin Booker has scored at least 38 actual points in two straight games and has played at least 39 minutes in three straight. I will gladly pay a price in the mid-$6,000 range for a high-volume shooter that could play upwards of 40 minutes. T.J. Warren has been solid for the Suns all season and has taken at least 14 shots in every single game. I like him for the exact same reasons as I like Booker. The Suns’ frontcourt draws a nice matchup against a team that struggles to rebound, but I’m not too high on Jared Dudley or Tyson Chandler. Brandon Knight can also be avoided, as he is averaging a measly 16.8 fantasy points per game this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Editor’s Note: Tyson Chandler has been ruled out. Alex Len is expected to start in his place.

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Eric Bledsoe $7,300 $6,700 $11,200 0.90 34.3 0.8 30.7 -2.4 25.4% 1.1% 20
Devin Booker $6,700 $6,600 $10,200 0.79 37 4.7 29.1 9.3 27.6% 1.2% 14
T.J. Warren $6,400 $6,900 $8,600 0.94 36.9 1.8 34.7 2.8 22.8% 0.6% 16
Jared Dudley $3,700 $3,100 $8,500 0.63 23.3 -1.3 14.8 -0.3 12.9% 1.1% 21
Tyson Chandler $4,800 $5,000 $9,000 0.85 28.8 2.5 24.5 5.8 10.1% 0.1% 21
Brandon Knight $4,600 $4,600 $9,200 0.62 27.3 -3 16.8 -1.7 24.5% -0.7% 14

Elite Plays – Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Eric Bledsoe (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (Cash)

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers home/road splits are a bit surprising this season. In the 2015-16 season, they were one of the best teams at home, but they struggled on the road. I expect those numbers to correct themselves over the course of the season, as this is still a young team that should play better in front of their home crowd. The Blazers draw an excellent matchup tonight against the Suns, who are ranked dead last in points allowed per game. Portland has an implied total of 112.3 points, which is the highest on the slate and a full four points above their season average.

I want to get as much exposure to the Blazers’ offense as possible, but there have really only been two constants in this offense – Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Lillard is averaging 45.3 fantasy points per game and has a true usage of 33.5% on the season. McCollum isn’t far behind with tallies of 32.6 fantasy points and a true usage of 25.9%. Both players are elite fantasy options tonight against a very beatable Suns’ backcourt. I typically like to play Lillard or McCollum, but you can pair them together tonight at home. Outside of those two, we have five players that average between 24 and 31 minutes per game. You can make a case for all five, but I don’t see any as viable cash game options. I will certainly be sprinkling the likes of Maurice Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee, and Allen Crabbe in my GPP lineups, but will be avoiding them in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Damian Lillard $9,800 $9,100 $13,500 1.25 36.3 0.3 45.3 -2.5 33.5% -3.7% 27
C.J. McCollum $7,100 $7,100 $11,000 0.95 34.5 -0.7 32.6 0.5 25.9% 0.5% 12
Maurice Harkless $4,700 $4,500 $8,300 0.62 30.6 3.2 19.0 4.8 15.3% 0.6% 26
Al-Farouq Aminu $4,800 $4,800 $8,100 0.77 29.2 0.8 22.5 1.1 16.3% 1.6% 28
Mason Plumlee $5,200 $5,000 $8,500 0.97 25.6 0.9 24.9 3.7 19.5% 1.8% 4
Evan Turner $4,100 $3,900 $8,800 0.62 24.3 0.6 15.1 -0.8 18.1% -0.7% 26
Allen Crabbe $3,900 $4,100 $7,300 0.58 29.6 2.8 17.1 -0.3 13.4% -1.5% 12

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum

Secondary Plays – Maurice Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee, Allen Crabbe

New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings – 10:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans Sacramento Kings
neworleansnba Vegas Total 203.0 sacramentonba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 98.5 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- -4.8 Pace +/- 2.7
Proj. Starter Tim Frazier E’Twaun Moore Solomon Hill Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj. Starter Darren Collison Arron Afflalo Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 6 22 21 21 12 2016-17 4 18 28 18 25

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans put up a good fight against the Warriors in Oakland last night, but eventually fell short. It will be interesting to see how they fare in the second half of a back-to-back. This feels an awful lot like a letdown spot and Vegas seems to agree with me. The Pelicans are listed as 6-point underdogs against the Kings in a game that features an over/under of only 203 points. Despite a favorable matchup on paper, the Pelicans have the lowest implied total in the slate at only 98.5 points. That number seems extremely low, which only plays into the whole letdown spot theory.

Tim Frazier really struggled in the first half of last night’s game, but finished strong with 32 fantasy points in 32 minutes. Frazier has treated me well over the last two seasons, but I have a hard time using him tonight. Not only is this the second half of a back-to-back, but Langston Galloway has been stealing minutes in the last three games. Speaking of Galloway, he remains a great punt option in all formats. Over the last three games, he is averaging 27 minutes and 22.5 fantasy points. E’Twaun Moore and Solomon Hill should both see around 30 minutes tonight and are both viable punt plays at their respective positions, however, I slightly prefer Buddy Hield at a similar price point. His shot volume has skyrocketed in the last few games and it looks like he could regularly play 30 minutes. Even though Vegas isn’t too high on the Pelicans, Anthony Davis has to be considered an elite play. He has a true usage over 30% this season while averaging 55.2 fantasy points per game. I will note that Rudy Gay has done a nice job defending Davis in the past.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Tim Frazier $5,400 $6,600 $9,000 1.00 29.2 -5.4 29.3 -10.0 24.5% -1.5% 6
E’Twaun Moore $4,400 $4,100 $7,500 0.67 29.9 1.7 20.1 1.0 18.9% 1.6% 22
Solomon Hill $3,900 $3,900 $7,700 0.60 26.6 -2.5 15.9 -0.6 12.4% -2.2% 21
Anthony Davis $10,800 $11,000 $15,600 1.47 37.6 0.1 55.2 -14.8 30.3% -7.1% 21
Omer Asik $3,600 $3,000 $7,400 0.67 18.2 6.7 12.3 4.1 8.8% -0.7% 12
Buddy Hield $4,000 $3,800 $7,600 0.67 21.2 5.9 14.3 6.2 23.9% -1.7% 22
Langston Galloway $3,700 $3,400 $6,000 0.70 19.5 7.5 13.7 8.8 18.7% 0.0% 6
Terrence Jones $4,700 $5,200 $7,600 0.94 19.3 4.4 18.2 5.5 21.3% 1.2% 21

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis

Secondary Plays – Tim Frazier (FD), Buddy Hield, Solomon Hill, Langston Galloway

Sacramento Kings

The Kings are 3-5 to start what will likely be another disappointing season for fans in Sacramento. They have changed their philosophy up a bit under new head coach, Dave Joerger, but so far it hasn’t produced any results. The Kings are ranked 29th in pace of play and 24th in points scored per game. At least in the past we could count on their games to be fast-paced and high scoring. The Kings draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who are playing their second game in as many nights. Sacramento has an implied total of 104.5 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and 6.4 points above their season average.

Darren Collison will make his season debut tonight, after being suspended for the first eight games. Ty Lawson will head to the bench and both players may end up being unplayable in DFS. We will have to wait and see how Joerger distributes the minutes at point guard. Rudy Gay has had a much bigger role in the offense this season with a true usage of 27.4%. I don’t mind the matchup against Solomon Hill and his price on DraftKings is more than reasonable. DeMarcus Cousins has smashed, and I mean smashed the Pelicans over the last two seasons. In eight meetings, he has topped the 70-fantasy point mark three times and he has yet to score less than 45 in any single game. I like the streak to continue tonight. With so many great options at the position, it feels like a two-center night on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Darren Collison $6,500 $6,200 $9,800 4
Arron Afflalo $3,600 $3,300 $7,900 0.46 29.5 -3.7 13.6 -2.4 14.5% 0.8% 18
Rudy Gay $7,400 $6,800 $9,900 1.00 34.2 -0.6 34.3 -8.9 27.4% -0.2% 28
DeMarcus Cousins $9,500 $10,400 $14,800 1.27 32.6 0.6 41.5 1.1 33.4% -2.0% 18
Kosta Koufos $3,600 $3,300 $8,700 0.77 20.7 -1 15.9 0.4 15.5% -1.7% 25
Ty Lawson $4,200 $4,100 $8,500 0.68 32 -1.7 21.6 -2.2 17.8% 1.2% 4

Elite Plays – DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay (DK)

Secondary Plays – Rudy Gay (FD)

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious