NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 4th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Dallas Mavericks | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.0 |  | Vegas Total | 198.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 97.0 | Implied Team Total | 101.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | J.J. Barea | Yogi Ferrell | Dorian Finney-Smith | Maxi Kleber | Salah Mejri | Projected Starters | D.J. Augustin | Wes Iwundu | Mario Hezonja | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 26 | 18 | 25 | 22 | DvP | 22 | 12 | 7 | 21 | 11 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 16 | 29 | 21 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 28 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
Dallas Mavericks
Update 2:30 EST – the Mavs have ruled out Dirk Nowitzki, Dennis Smith Jr, Harrison Barnes, Dwight Powell and now Salah Mejri is questionable. That changes a lot, especially if Mejri gets ruled out later. I’m making Maxi Kleber an elite play. He’s not a great per minute player but the team will be short on bigs with Noel out too. You could maybe even make a case for whoever starts for Barnes and Dirk as secondary plays. I assume it’s Dorian Finney-Smith and Doug McDermott. McDermott is somewhat interesting, so also listing him as a secondary play.
Moving J.J. Barea from secondary to elite play after more thought.
Notable Injuries
Dorian Finney-Smith (Rested Tuesday, will play Wednesday), Nerlens Noel (Suspended 5 games), Dennis Smith Jr. (unlikely to play)
Hello Grinders. We have a six game slate this Wednesday. My biggest encouragement is to continue monitoring news and whether a team is still playing for something, as that will determine our level of interest in players. Let’s dive in!
This is the backend of a back-to-back for Dallas and they’ve been very unpredictable in their rotations lately, so I want to be very cautious here. Given it’s just a six game slate we don’t have a lot of options, but Dallas is my least favorite team on this slate.
Dorian Finney-Smith rested on Tuesday but said he will play on Wednesday. And Nerlens Noel was suspended for five games for, well, you know what he was doing. He’s done for the season. Dwight Powell, Salah Mejri and Dirk Nowitzki were all questionable on Tuesday but all played, so we need to monitor their situation today. Lastly, Dennis Smith Jr. is unlikely to play. I’m not sure who will draw the start, but that may make Yogi Ferrell interesting if he starts.
My biggest fear with the Mavs is that they will run out every player on the roster for 20 minutes today like a middle school basketball game, and nobody will really hit value. Plus they are part of the Tank-A-Thon club and have no incentive to win. On Tuesday they used 11 guys.
Here is the box score to the Mavs’ March 28th game, which was the backend game of a back-to-back. They played 13 guys and nobody played more than 26 minutes. I’m not saying this will definitely happen again, but given it just happened a week ago, it makes me think the Mavs may roll out this strategy again so nobody is overworked for a meaningless game. This is still a good matchup on paper against a weak Orlando defense, but nobody is safe for cash games in my opinion and this is probably a team I will try to avoid. My main focus will be on the big men given Noel is out and Dirk/Salah/Dwight are all banged up, but it’s not something I’m enthusiastic about.
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.3 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.0 (12 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 (10 of 12)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Barea | $5,200 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 24.0 | 2.9 | 23.4 | -2.5 | 1.03 | 25.2% | 26 | 30 | 22 |
| Yogi Ferrell | $4,300 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 19.6 | 1.7 | 28.5 | -7.6 | 0.69 | 16.2% | 24 | 26 | 16 |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 18.2 | 7.4 | 0.54 | 10.9% | 24 | 18 | 29 |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 16.8 | 11.3 | 0.74 | 12.0% | 19 | 25 | 21 |
| Salah Mejri | $4,500 | $3,200 | $6,700 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 1.10 | 10.5% | 26 | 22 | 9 |
| Doug McDermott | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,100 | 12.8 | -0.7 | 21.8 | -3.9 | 0.59 | 13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Aaron Harrison | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 13.5 | -0.4 | 20.4 | 0.2 | 0.66 | 14.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – J.J. Barea, Maxi Kleber
Secondary Plays – Yogi Ferrell, Doug McDermott
Orlando Magic
Update 5:18pm EST – Nikola Vucevic is OUT for rest. This makes Khem Birch an elite play. Biyombo is starting, but I have to assume they use this game (like last game) to give him some playing time since they already know what they have in Biyombo.
Jonathan Isaac and Jonathon Simmons are ruled out, making Mario Hezonja and Shelvin Mack safer plays.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Questionable), Jonathon Simmons (Questionable)
Orlando is also playing the backend game of a back-to-back. Jonathon Simmons and Jonathan Isaac both missed Tuesday’s game, pushing Mario Hezonja back into the starting lineup.
The main starters of D.J. Augustin, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic are tournament viable, but their prices are also really high and we may start seeing the Magic play their younger players like they did on Tuesday. While Tuesday’s game was a blowout in the 4th quarter, it’s worth noting that Gordon only played 28 minutes while Vuc and Augustin were limited to 20. Instead, Khem Birch got a double-double in 22 minutes and Jamel Artis played 32 minutes, scoring a career-high 16 points. I’m not ready to say guys like Artis and Birch will start seeing expanded roles since this game did blow out and it’s difficult to tell if their playing time was more a reflection of where the Magic are trying to go these final games, but it makes me hesitant to roll out any of these starters.
If Isaac and Simmons remain out, my main target on this team would be Mario Hezonja, who played 36 minutes on Tuesday and scored 19 points. Shlevin Mack also nearly posted a triple-double in 28 minutes and would be my preferred target over D.J. Augustin.
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.0 (7 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (7 of 12)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Augustin | $5,700 | $5,800 | $11,300 | 19.5 | 9.2 | 23.7 | 7.8 | 0.82 | 18.5% | 25 | 22 | 28 |
| Wes Iwundu | $3,500 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 8.9 | 0.3 | 15.3 | 7.0 | 0.58 | 10.8% | 7 | 12 | 1 |
| Mario Hezonja | $5,600 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 19.1 | 12.9 | 21.6 | 11.4 | 0.88 | 17.2% | 23 | 7 | 6 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,700 | $7,700 | $13,800 | 34.8 | -1.6 | 33.6 | 0.2 | 1.04 | 21.6% | 8 | 21 | 4 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $9,300 | $8,300 | $15,700 | 37.3 | 4.7 | 30.0 | -0.2 | 1.24 | 23.3% | 22 | 11 | 2 |
| Shelvin Mack | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 16.8 | 7.6 | 19.6 | 7.2 | 0.86 | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Khem Birch
Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon (GPP), Mario Hezonja (if Jonathon Simmons and Jonathan Isaac are out), Shelvin Mack
Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Philadelphia 76ers | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.5 |  | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.0 | Vegas Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.3 | Implied Team Total | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Ersan Ilyasova | Amir Johnson | Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Reggie Bullock | Stanley Johnson | Anthony Tolliver | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 9 | 23 | 17 | 8 | DvP | 13 | 18 | 19 | 9 | 16 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 21 | 6 | 23 | 11 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 26 | 1 | 17 | 4 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
Notable Injuries
Joel Embiid (Out), Dario Saric (Out)
The 76ers are without Joel Embiid for the near future, and Dario Saric is nursing an injury and will also be out. This is the backend of a back-to-back for the 76ers but the 76ers continue to play for playoff seeding, as they could move as high up as 3rd in the East. I’d expect them to continue playing hard.
With no Embiid and Saric, it’s the usual suspects we were targeting on Tuesday. We can also use a CourtIQ run here to understand usage for the 76ers when these two off the court. Ben Simmons is the clear top dog now and leads the team with a 29% usage rate and averages 1.39 fantasy points per minute. Robert Covington sees a 6% usage bump and dominated on Tuesday, while J.J. Redick sees a 4% usage bump. Amir Johnson and Ersan Ilyasova are now starting and average a bit over 0.90 fantasy points per minute. All are firmly-in play. Marco Belinelli benefits in the second unit with both Johnson and Ilyasova starting, and is a fine way to save while still having some upside.
The nice thing is their prices didn’t really move much across the industry, so this is a place we can attack. Simmons is one of the clear elite studs, while Amir Johnson is a nice way to get some salary relief as he should be needed against Andre Drummond.
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.9 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (2 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (6 of 12)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $9,700 | $10,200 | $17,400 | 42.1 | 4.3 | 34.0 | -3.7 | 1.24 | 22.7% | 21 | 14 | 18 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,000 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 24.4 | 2.2 | 30.1 | -3.0 | 0.81 | 20.0% | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| Robert Covington | $6,000 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 28.0 | 8.4 | 31.7 | -1.0 | 0.88 | 15.3% | 21 | 23 | 6 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,000 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 22.0 | 6.9 | 24.9 | 2.0 | 0.88 | 16.0% | 16 | 17 | 23 |
| Amir Johnson | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 14.5 | 1.8 | 15.4 | 5.5 | 0.94 | 11.7% | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| Marco Belinelli | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 18.2 | 4.6 | 24.1 | 1.9 | 0.75 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Richaun Holmes | $4,200 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 15.4 | 3.9 | 15.1 | 3.1 | 1.02 | 15.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Robert Covington, Ersan Ilyasova, Amir Johnson, Ben Simmons
Secondary Plays – Marco Belinelli, J.J. Redick
Detroit Pistons
Notable Injuries
Update 12:45pm EST – Andre Drummond popped up on the injury report as questionable with an illness but is hopeful to play, so monitor this situation.
Blake Griffin (Out)
On the Detroit side, Blake Griffin continues to remain out and the Pistons are barely still alive. They used a 9-man rotation in their last game, which is impressive considering Andre Drummond only played 25 minutes before getting ejected, so they are clearly focused on a tight rotation as their season is on the line. Because of Drummond’s ejection, the stats for everyone else on the Pistons may be somewhat inflated from their last game.
Drummond is an elite play here without having to deal with the defense of Joel Embiid. Don’t let his low numbers from last game throw you off. He was on pace for another 50+ fantasy point game.
Reggie Jackson has taken over the point guard duties and played 32 minutes last game, which was a good sign considering that was the backend of a back-to-back. He finished with 29 real life points and remains very affordable across the industry. I don’t love targeting point guards against the 76ers as they are among the top half of the league at guarding the position, but I’m willing to overlook that aspect given his price.
Anthony Tolliver continues to start for Griffin and dropped his first double-double of the season last game. His price is rising and I’m viewing him more as a secondary play because of the elevated price tag.
Stanley Johnson and Reggie Bullock are getting a ton of minutes, but they are also somewhat volatile in their fantasy production. I prefer Johnson in GPPs because of his tendency to dud at times, while Bullock is more of a safe cash-game play. I don’t necessarily love either against this 76ers defense but both are likely going to see 30+ minutes so I don’t mind them as a last-piece.
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (3 of 12)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.0 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $5,800 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 25.4 | 2.0 | 26.6 | 0.3 | 0.96 | 26.7% | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,500 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 18.7 | 2.9 | 27.9 | 3.4 | 0.67 | 14.5% | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| Stanley Johnson | $4,900 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 18.8 | 4.1 | 27.2 | 0.3 | 0.69 | 14.8% | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Anthony Tolliver | $5,200 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 15.0 | 13.8 | 21.5 | 8.5 | 0.70 | 13.4% | 7 | 9 | 17 |
| Andre Drummond | $10,000 | $10,300 | $18,100 | 45.7 | 4.3 | 33.4 | 1.6 | 1.37 | 18.6% | 7 | 16 | 4 |
| Luke Kennard | $3,500 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 13.6 | 3.5 | 19.3 | 2.0 | 0.71 | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ish Smith | $4,400 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 22.3 | -3.1 | 25.2 | -4.6 | 0.89 | 21.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Eric Moreland | $3,800 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 11.0 | 2.5 | 11.4 | -0.8 | 0.96 | 8.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson
Secondary Plays – Reggie Bullock, Stanley Johnson, Anthony Tolliver
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -8.0 | Vegas Spread | 8.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.8 | Implied Team Total | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside | Projected Starters | Isaiah Taylor | Damion Lee | Taurean Prince | John Collins | Dewayne Dedmon | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 25 | 30 | 26 | 29 | DvP | 5 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 9 | 10 | 27 | 19 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 19 | 9 | 12 | 2 | |
Miami Heat
Notable Injuries
None
The Heat clinched a playoff spot on Tuesday and moved into the 6th seed. They should continue playing hard as only a 0.5 game separates 6th from 8th. This is weird, but the Heat and Hawks just played on Tuesday in Miami, so this is a repeat in Atlanta. After an outburst against the organization about his lack of playing time, Hassan Whiteside used the squeaky wheel narrative to his benefit and finished with 40 DraftKings pointson Tuesday. Dewayne Dedmon did miss this game so he was going up against backups, but centers against the Hawks has been a thing all season. I’m willing to roll with it again.
Goran Dragic also played well, scoring 22 points and grabbing 10 rebounds, his second highest total all season. His price tag is a bit high for my liking ($7,100 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel), so I’m viewing him more as a secondary play on this slate.
I want to like more guys on the Heat since they have an elite matchup against a poor Hawks defense, but their team is so deep that they can spread out the offense really well. I do think Josh Richardson in tournaments is interesting given he had a bit of a letdown game on Tuesday and recency bias may force him to go overlooked, but the Hawks rank last in DvP against his position so you could get him in a bounceback game at low ownership.
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 (2 of 12)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.9 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,600 | $7,100 | $13,300 | 30.4 | -0.7 | 31.8 | 1.3 | 0.96 | 25.0% | 26 | 27 | 9 |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,600 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 22.1 | -5.4 | 28.5 | -2.6 | 0.78 | 17.7% | 19 | 25 | 10 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,200 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 26.8 | 2.9 | 33.4 | 2.3 | 0.80 | 16.7% | 30 | 30 | 27 |
| James Johnson | $6,500 | $6,500 | $11,600 | 25.7 | 5.6 | 26.8 | 5.6 | 0.96 | 18.1% | 20 | 26 | 19 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $7,300 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 35.0 | -2.5 | 25.6 | -3.2 | 1.37 | 20.6% | 22 | 29 | 13 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $7,500 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 24.3 | 2.6 | 23.6 | -1.0 | 1.03 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,300 | $5,200 | $10,100 | 24.1 | 4.3 | 23.1 | -0.1 | 1.04 | 24.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wayne Ellington | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 17.8 | -8.2 | 26.6 | -2.4 | 0.67 | 15.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson
Atlanta Hawks
Update 1:35pm EST – The Hawks made a big move of calling up 4 G-leaguers today: Tyler Cavanaugh, Jeremy Evans, Josh Magette and Andrew White. You can find the tweet here. There’s no telling how much they’ll play tonight but the fact 4 more guys are with the team makes me hesitant now to try and use them for value as they could easily spread out some of the minutes. I’m updating my elite/secondary plays and going to call most of them secondary plays since this could move them away from the 8 man rotation they used on Tuesday.
Notable Injuries
Dewayne Dedmon (Questionable)
The Hawks late scratched Dewayne Dedmon with a rib injury, so we’ll need to monitor what they do on Wednesday. Miles Plumlee drew the start and played decently in 34 minutes. The Hawks only used 8 players on Tuesday, with Antonius Cleveland a DNP-CD and obviously Dedmon was out. Taurean Prince also sat the second half and played just 10 minutes in a strange move, allowing Tyler Dorsey to start the 3rd quarter. In fact, six guys played 33 minutes or more:
John Collins: 33
Miles Plumlee: 34
Isaiah Taylor: 38
Damion Lee: 37
Mike Muscala: 33
Tyler Dorsey: 38
This is crazy, but if we get word Dedmon is out again, there’s an opportunity to just cherry pick some of these Hawks as your value plays to fit in the studs. There’s no guarantee Prince will see just 10 minutes again though and give way to Dorsey, so that’s something to consider. But this makes guys like Taylor, Muscala, Lee, Collins and Dorsey very interesting.
I’m going to list Collins, Taylor, Lee and Muscala as elite, while Dorsey as a secondary play. He becomes elite if we see the same scenario on Wednesday with Prince getting benched in the second half, but we probably won’t know whether that’s going to happen. And to clarify, I consider them elite because of their price and potential heavy minutes with the lack of players on this team, not because I think they are great players. The matchup against the Heat is fair from ideal, but when you’re using an 8-9 man rotation, we have to take notice. Taurean Prince is a real nice GPP play too as nobody will be on him after he played just 10 minutes, and we know he has a massive usage rate with their key starters off the court.
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.8 (11 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -4.7 (8 of 12)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Taylor | $6,000 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 16.9 | 14.7 | 0.80 | 19.3% | 5 | 5 | 22 |
| Damion Lee | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.1 | 2.9 | 27.1 | 2.5 | 0.85 | 17.2% | 7 | 11 | 19 |
| Taurean Prince | $6,600 | $6,800 | $11,900 | 25.2 | -0.6 | 29.9 | -3.5 | 0.84 | 18.5% | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| John Collins | $6,300 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 24.8 | 3.9 | 23.8 | 5.1 | 1.04 | 15.3% | 12 | 7 | 12 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $6,200 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 24.6 | 4.9 | 24.8 | 6.0 | 0.99 | 14.5% | 8 | 7 | 2 |
| Tyler Dorsey | $3,600 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 16.7 | 10.3 | 0.73 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Collins, (player-popup #taurean-prince)Taurean Prince”:/players/taurean-prince-35218 (GPP),
Secondary Plays – Tyler Dorsey, Damion Lee, Mike Muscala, Isaiah Taylor
Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors – 8:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.0 |  | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.0 | Vegas Spread | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.0 | Implied Team Total | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Terry Rozier | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 21 | DvP | 2 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 18 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
Notable Injuries
Shane Larkin (Questionable), Terry Rozier (Questionable)
Both Boston and Toronto are playing a back-to-back here, and Boston was without Shane Larkin and Terry Rozier on Tuesday. We should consider both as questionable for Wednesday. The Celtics lost on Tuesday and remain 2 games back of the #1 seeded Raptors, so in some ways this is a big game. A win here for Toronto would put them 1 game back of the top seed with five games to go.
On Tuesday, Kadeem Allen started at point guard but only played 23 minutes and barely had any counting stats. I learned the hard way – don’t play Kadeem Allen. The offense ran through Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford, who all played between 33-36 minutes. If both Larkin and Rozier are out again, all four are firmly in-play.
Aron Baynes and Greg Monroe are deep options if you need big men, but I respect this Toronto defense as a whole and I’d rather go elsewhere.
If we hear one of Larkin or Rozier is playing and the other is out, I would consider the one who plays as an elite option. I do think the Celtics play hard to win this game and I could the starting point guard logging heavy minutes given the team is lacking depth at the position.
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.2 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.0 (10 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -5.2 (9 of 12)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier | $7,300 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 23.9 | 14.4 | 25.7 | 7.9 | 0.93 | 20.1% | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,500 | $5,500 | $11,300 | 25.2 | 1.2 | 30.8 | -1.5 | 0.82 | 18.2% | 12 | 2 | 24 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,600 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 26.4 | 5.7 | 30.6 | 1.0 | 0.86 | 16.9% | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Al Horford | $7,100 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 32.0 | 2.8 | 31.7 | 1.1 | 1.01 | 17.6% | 9 | 8 | 13 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 15.3 | 2.4 | 18.3 | 4.9 | 0.84 | 14.3% | 13 | 21 | 18 |
| Marcus Morris | $5,700 | $6,400 | $12,500 | 23.5 | 6.3 | 26.6 | 3.7 | 0.88 | 20.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Shane Larkin | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 13.7 | 10.7 | 0.67 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Greg Monroe | $5,100 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 22.8 | 0.2 | 20.2 | 0.4 | 1.13 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jaylen Brown (if Rozier/Larkin are out, if one is in then bump Brown to secondary play), Jayson Tatum (if Rozier/Larkin are out, if one is in then bump Brown to secondary play), Shane Larkin or Terry Rozier (if one is in and the other is out)
Secondary Plays – Al Horford, Greg Monroe (GPP)
Toronto Raptors
Notable Injuries
None
The Raptors are a hard team to figure out because their second unit is so deep that they can afford to go easy on their starters. The Celtics are also such an elite defensive unit that I’m not enthusiastic about trying to play a bunch of Raptors players against them.
DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas are all fine options, but given the matchup, I’m viewing them all as secondary options. Valanciunas would be my favorite target, but it would be in tournaments. The Raptors bench is so good that on any given night, any one of them could lead the second unit. As such, it’s hard to pinpoint any specific target among guys like Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam or Jakob Poeltl. VanVleet usually closes the game in the 4th quarter so he’s generally my favorite bench player on the Raptors, but I’m not actively looking to jam him into my lineups against a stout Celtics defense.
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 112.3 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (6 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -6.3 (11 of 12)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,100 | $7,900 | $14,500 | 34.9 | -2.2 | 32.2 | 2.0 | 1.08 | 21.8% | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $7,900 | $7,800 | $13,900 | 37.9 | -4.9 | 34.1 | -0.7 | 1.11 | 28.4% | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 11.8 | -0.9 | 20.0 | -2.4 | 0.59 | 10.8% | 2 | 9 | 4 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,500 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 25.3 | 4.4 | 27.5 | 1.9 | 0.92 | 16.9% | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $6,500 | $6,200 | $12,900 | 27.2 | 4.1 | 22.5 | -0.1 | 1.21 | 19.1% | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Jakob Poeltl | $4,000 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 17.4 | -3.0 | 18.3 | -0.7 | 0.95 | 12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Fred VanVleet | $4,900 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 19.2 | 3.4 | 20.2 | 3.7 | 0.95 | 19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Kyle Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 13.0 | Vegas Spread | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.8 | Implied Team Total | 113.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kobi Simmons | Ben McLemore | Dillon Brooks | Jarell Martin | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | Emeka Okafor | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 27 | 24 | 20 | 17 | DvP | 19 | 22 | 16 | 14 | 1 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 16 | 18 | 24 | 10 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
Notable Injuries
MarShon Brooks (Questionable), Tyreke Evans (Out), Andrew Harrison (Out), JaMychal Green (Out), Chandler Parsons (Out), Wayne Selden (Out)
Reading the injury report for the Memphis Grizzlies is like reading the list of former cast members on The Walking Dead who all died and left the show. It just goes on and on, and it’s to the point where I’m not even sure how they are fielding a professional basketball team on a regular basis. Tyreke Evans, Andrew Harrison, JaMychal Green, Chandler Parsons and Wayne Selden are all out, while MarShon Brooks is questionable.
I know I’ve taken the stance to just avoid Memphis, but with a shorter slate like this one and with this many injuries, I am willing to backtrack on that stance for this specific slate. Let’s first dive into who is even available to play:
Guards: Dillon Brooks, MarShon Brooks, Mario Chalmers, Ben McLemore, Kobi Simmons, Marquis Teague
Forwards: Jarell Martin, Ivan Rabb
Centers: Marc Gasol, Deyonta Davis
I’m couting 10 active bodies, and Chalmers was a DNP-CD last game. Dillon Brooks went off last game and I’d hate to chase his 28 point game, but given the lack of options on the team and now with Wayne Selden out, I have to imagine Brooks will take a ton of shots.
Everyone else is more of a secondary option to me. In their last game, everyone played between 21-31 minutes (besides Brooks, who played a team high 38 minutes). They could do what I think the Mavericks will do, and that’s just split the minutes between everyone. If MarShon Brooks plays, I like him a lot as a cheap GPP dart throw given his ability to shoot (and hopefully score), but outside of the two Brooks Brothers, you’re playing with fire. Marc Gasol only played 20 minutes last game so while we normally want to use him when there’s a lack of bodies, there’s no guarantee he even plays meaningful minutes. I would limit him to tournaments. I do think Jarell Martin will be forced into some decent minutes but he underwhelmed in 31 minutes last game so he’s not a slam dunk play.
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 98.8 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.0 (5 of 12)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.9 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.6 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobi Simmons | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 11.5 | -1.7 | 18.4 | -0.8 | 0.62 | 14.8% | 16 | 20 | 20 |
| Ben McLemore | $3,800 | $3,300 | $6,400 | 13.2 | 3.4 | 18.5 | 1.5 | 0.72 | 16.2% | 25 | 27 | 2 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,100 | 17.9 | 5.8 | 28.6 | 0.9 | 0.62 | 15.8% | 18 | 24 | 30 |
| Jarell Martin | $4,100 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 16.7 | 5.6 | 22.8 | 8.8 | 0.73 | 14.7% | 23 | 20 | 1 |
| Marc Gasol | $6,300 | $6,900 | $13,000 | 37.1 | -3.6 | 33.2 | -6.8 | 1.12 | 23.4% | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| Marquis Teague | $3,200 | $6,200 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 26.5 | 0.0 | 0.60 | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
| Ivan Rabb | $4,000 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 0.88 | 13.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Deyonta Davis | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,400 | 12.9 | -2.9 | 14.4 | 1.6 | 0.89 | 13.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dillon Brooks, MarShon Brooks (GPP if he plays)
Secondary Plays – Marc Gasol (GPP), Jarell Martin
New Orleans Pelicans
Notable Injuries
None
The Pelicans are by far my favorite team on this slate because they have everything on the line right now, and they get to do it against a minor league basketball team. The Pelicans are barely clinging to the 8th seed in the West, yet they could move up as much as the 4th seed if they win out and the teams in front of them lose.
On a slate lacking star power, Anthony Davis stands out above the rest. The argument for using Davis is that he has the highest ceiling of any player on this slate, and possibly even the highest floor. You’ll want him in your cash games. The argument for fading Davis is that he’s injury prone and could leave the game after diving into the stands for a loose ball, or that the Grizzlies are so bad that this game could be over by the 3rd quarter and he doesn’t hit value. This is probably the biggest decision you’ll need to make on this slate – do you pay up for Brow?
The offense is going to flow through Davis, Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo. I’m viewing all three as elite options. If this game somehow stays close, all three will be out there as the Pelicans will do everything they can to win (and not be embarrassed). I also don’t mind E’Twaun Moore, who continues to log heavy minutes.
Emeka Okafor continues to draw the start, but Darius Miller, Ian Clark and Nikola Mirotic are playing a lot more minutes later in the game as the team goes smaller. If you think this game blows out I don’t mind any of them as GPP darts, but keep in mind Mirotic has been in a pretty bad slump recently.
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 111.1 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (4 of 12)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $6,300 | $6,400 | $12,700 | 26.3 | 5.2 | 26.0 | 3.8 | 1.01 | 18.4% | 23 | 19 | 26 |
| Jrue Holiday | $8,800 | $8,100 | $14,900 | 37.3 | 0.2 | 36.3 | -2.2 | 1.03 | 21.9% | 18 | 22 | 16 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 20.8 | 1.5 | 31.7 | -2.1 | 0.66 | 14.5% | 9 | 16 | 18 |
| Anthony Davis | $12,300 | $11,800 | $20,900 | 54.7 | 2.1 | 36.4 | -0.1 | 1.50 | 25.9% | 22 | 14 | 24 |
| Emeka Okafor | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 14.7 | -4.9 | 14.7 | -2.6 | 1.00 | 12.2% | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $4,300 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 28.5 | -11.0 | 26.5 | -5.5 | 1.08 | 20.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ian Clark | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 12.2 | 3.5 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 0.63 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |