NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 6th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Sacramento Kings at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.0 |  | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 12.0 | Vegas Spread | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.5 | Implied Team Total | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | George Hill | Garrett Temple | Zach Randolph | Kosta Koufos | Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 21 | 24 | 4 | 16 | 23 | DvP | 20 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 29 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 12 | 25 | 19 | 28 | 22 | DRPM Rat. | 30 | 19 | 12 | 24 | 21 | |
Sacramento Kings
We kick off Wednesday with one of the uglier games of the slate. The Kings have lost six of their last ten games and have the second worst point differential in basketball. Tonight they travel to Cleveland to take on one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The spread is currently set at 12 points, which honestly feels a bit low given the way these two teams are playing right now. Even though the Kings’ implied total (98.5 points) is three points higher than their season average, it’s still the fourth lowest on the board.
George Hill and De’Aaron Fox have been outplayed by Frank Mason recently, which only makes their point guard rotation even more difficult to predict. For now, all three should be off your radar, especially in a ten game slate. Garrett Temple has played well recently, but there are a handful of value plays that I would rather target. The only interest that I have in Sacramento is in their frontcourt. Willie Cauley-Stein has already been ruled out for the next two games, which opens up 28 minutes in the rotation.
Zach Randolph is an aging veteran that still has some gas left in the tank. If we look at his splits, he’s been significantly better with at least two days of rest than he has been in back-to-backs or with only one day of rest. I do worry about a blowout (he would be the first on the bench), but Randolph has 28-30 minute upside in a favorable matchup against the Cavaliers. Dollar for dollar, he stands out as one of the best power forward targets, but the potential blowout makes him a better tournament play than cash game target. Kosta Koufos and Jakarr Sampson are both intriguing punts, as they should both pick up minutes in Cauley-Stein’s absence. It’s also worth noting that they won’t be competing with Skal Labissiere for minutes, as he was sent down to the G-League.
Notable Injuries
Willie Cauley-Stein (Out)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 95.7 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.5 (17 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 (5 of 20)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $5,000 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 22.0 | -1.6 | 26.1 | -2.2 | 0.84 | 21.7% | 20 | 21 | 12 |
| George Hill | $4,500 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 18.1 | -3.0 | 25.6 | -2.0 | 0.71 | 16.1% | 20 | 24 | 25 |
| Garrett Temple | $4,500 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 17.5 | 6.7 | 26.1 | 4.9 | 0.67 | 14.3% | 19 | 4 | 19 |
| Zach Randolph | $5,900 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 25.7 | 4.8 | 24.9 | 1.7 | 1.03 | 23.8% | 20 | 16 | 28 |
| Kosta Koufos | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,400 | 15.7 | -9.9 | 18.5 | -6.9 | 0.85 | 11.3% | 14 | 23 | 22 |
| Buddy Hield | $4,300 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 20.9 | -5.8 | 22.2 | -3.8 | 0.94 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakarr Sampson | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 0.68 | 13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Zach Randolph (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Zach Randolph (Cash), Jakarr Sampson (GPP), Kosta Koufos (GPP)
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have won 12 games in a row and have vaulted up to second place in the Eastern Conference standings. They should be able to keep their streak alive tonight, as they host the Kings in a game that features the largest spread on the board. Sacramento may not play at a fast pace, but they are still a favorable matchup for fantasy production. On the season, the Kings are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and dead last in rebounding differenital. The Cavaliers currently have the third highest implied total of the slate.
The larger the slate, the less likely I am to take unnecessary risks in cash games. With that said, he big three for Cleveland are all viable tonight in tournaments. The large spread will help keep their ownership at reasonable levels and this is clearly an exploitable matchup. If Sacramento is able to keep the game competitive, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Kevin Love could all prosper. Love and Wade have both been in great form recently, averaging 44 and 35 fantasy points over their last four games.
Notable Injuries
Tristan Thompson (Out)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 111.5 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (3 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 (14 of 20)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.1 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 6.9 | 0.9 | 14.3 | 4.7 | 0.48 | 9.9% | 22 | 20 | 30 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,300 | $4,000 | $7,300 | 16.9 | 3.2 | 30.9 | 3.2 | 0.55 | 12.1% | 8 | 14 | 19 |
| LeBron James | $11,800 | $11,600 | $22,100 | 53.4 | 0.6 | 37.0 | -2.1 | 1.44 | 29.4% | 21 | 15 | 12 |
| Jae Crowder | $3,800 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 15.1 | -2.4 | 25.6 | -2.6 | 0.59 | 13.7% | 23 | 15 | 24 |
| Kevin Love | $8,200 | $8,400 | $15,500 | 36.0 | 7.9 | 29.3 | -1.3 | 1.23 | 22.5% | 27 | 29 | 21 |
| Dwyane Wade | $6,200 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 26.0 | 9.4 | 23.6 | 1.6 | 1.10 | 23.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeff Green | $4,600 | $4,100 | $7,900 | 19.0 | 3.8 | 21.1 | 2.8 | 0.90 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.5 | Vegas Spread | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.5 | Implied Team Total | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 17 | 2 | 20 | 30 | DvP | 24 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 11 | 26 | 19 | 27 | |
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are hoping to avoid their tenth straight loss tonight, as they take on the Pacers in Indiana. This game has a 9.5-point spread and is another one that could turn into a blowout. That’s always a concern in these large slates because we have so many options to choose from that we can’t afford to have duds in our lineups. The Bulls have an implied total of 99.5 points, which is the sixth lowest on the board. On a positive note, they do have the third highest projected point differential (+3.9).
Darren Collison and Victor Oladipo are both above-average defenders, ranking seventh or better in their positional DRPM rating. Kris Dunn and Justin Holiday have flashed upside at times this season, but I’m not sure we need to consider them in a slate this size. The same can be said for Denzel Valentine, who has been wildly inconsistent this season. The best way to attack the Pacers is in the frontcourt. Indiana is ranked 24th against power forwards, 30th against centers, and they have the 12th worst rebounding differential.
Lauri Markkanen has quietly played well in his rookie season. He is averaging 0.93 fantasy points per minute with a true usage rate over 20%. His price has come down to $5,800 on DraftKings. He basically needs to have an average game to reach value and that’s certainly possible against a bad defensive frontcourt of the Pacers. Robin Lopez draws one of the best possible matchups for a center, but I have a hard time paying almost $6,000 for him in a full slate.
Notable Injuries
Nikola Mirotic (Out)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 95.6 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.9 (3 of 20)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $6,700 | $6,100 | $12,000 | 27.4 | 7.8 | 27.0 | 2.3 | 1.02 | 23.7% | 16 | 19 | 7 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,900 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 27.2 | 7.5 | 34.2 | 0.4 | 0.80 | 19.2% | 15 | 17 | 1 |
| Denzel Valentine | $5,100 | $5,200 | $10,900 | 22.7 | -2.9 | 29.1 | 4.5 | 0.78 | 16.7% | 4 | 2 | 28 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,600 | $5,800 | $12,300 | 28.4 | -0.6 | 30.6 | 0.8 | 0.93 | 20.1% | 24 | 20 | 11 |
| Robin Lopez | $5,900 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 24.5 | 2.8 | 29.7 | 1.1 | 0.82 | 18.8% | 30 | 30 | 9 |
| Bobby Portis | $4,400 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.5 | -4.6 | 22.4 | -1.8 | 1.05 | 21.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David Nwaba | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 18.7 | -1.2 | 20.7 | -1.3 | 0.90 | 12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lauri Markkanen (DK)
Secondary Plays – Lauri Markkanen (FD), Robin Lopez (GPP)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have won seven of their last ten games and would sneak into the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They draw a favorable matchup tonight at home against the Bulls, who are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Indiana has an implied total of 109 points, which is the fifth highest of the 20 teams in action tonight. The only concern here is a potential blowout, as the spread is nearing double-digits.
Darren Collison has finally found some consistency, scoring at least 20 fantasy points in ten straight games and topping the 27 fantasy point mark eight times during that stretch. Kris Dunn is a good individual defender, but as a team, the Bulls are ranked 25th in DvP and 24th in efficiency against point guards. Collison is an intriguing pivot off of the Rajon Rondo in tournaments. Victor Oladipo is averaging 51 fantasy points over his last four games, but his price is at its highest point of the season. I hate paying a premium for players in potential blowouts.
Bojan Bogdanovic is a player that I look to when value is lacking in a given slate. That’s not the case tonight, so he’s not really on my radar. I would rather take a shot on Lance Stephenson if Cory Joseph is unable to suit up. Joseph is averaging 24 minutes per game and a few would likely slide over to Stephenson. Thaddeus Young offers a high floor in a favorable matchup. He’s viable in cash games over on FanDuel. Myles Turner minutes are trending in the right direction, but he’s only scored 30 fantasy points once in his last seven games.
Notable Injuries
Cory Joseph (Questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.9 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (5 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.1 (12 of 20)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $6,400 | $6,100 | $12,000 | 28.9 | 1.3 | 31.7 | -1.8 | 0.91 | 18.4% | 25 | 24 | 7 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,400 | $8,900 | $16,100 | 40.8 | 10.7 | 33.2 | 0.7 | 1.23 | 26.6% | 23 | 20 | 11 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 21.3 | 0.0 | 31.1 | 2.2 | 0.69 | 16.2% | 20 | 22 | 26 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,000 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 28.5 | -0.8 | 32.9 | -2.7 | 0.87 | 16.4% | 28 | 22 | 19 |
| Myles Turner | $7,600 | $6,200 | $12,900 | 31.3 | -2.4 | 28.9 | 1.3 | 1.08 | 18.0% | 23 | 13 | 27 |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 18.8 | 5.0 | 21.7 | 2.5 | 0.87 | 17.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young (FD), Victor Oladipo (GPP), Lance Stephenson (if Joseph is out)
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Atlanta Hawks | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 218.0 |  | Vegas Total | 218.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.8 | Implied Team Total | 112.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 29 | 29 | 19 | 28 | 14 | DvP | 17 | 26 | 28 | 24 | 18 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 2 | 21 | 7 | 9 | |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have lost seven of their last ten games, but they’ve been competitive enough that Vegas has them listed as only 6.5-point underdogs tonight on the road. The Magic are one of our favorite teams to target players against, as they are ranked sixth in pace of play, 28th in points allowed per game, and 28th in rebounding differential. Despite missing most of their frontcourt, the Hawks have an implied total of 105.8 points, which is the ninth highest of the slate and three points above their season average.
Targeting point guards against the Magic has long been a tradition of mine in DFS. Dennis Schroder has one of the highest true usage rates (29%) of any player in the entire slate and there’s a good chance that he’ll end up being less than 10% owned in tournaments. He’s not a cash game target at his current price point, but he certainly deserves tournament consideration. If he can crack that 35-minute mark (which is a big if), he could potentially put up 50 fantasy points in this matchup.
The Magic struggle to contain wing players, but I have very little faith in Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince, whose minutes and fantasy production are both down over their last four games. I’m more interested in Marco Belinelli and DeAndre Bembry, who have both been playing well off the bench. While I probably won’t end up with any shares, Belinelli and Bembry are intriguing targets in large field tournaments. As for the Hawks’ frontcourt, this is a situation that I will continue to avoid in all formats.
Notable Injuries
Mike Muscala (Out)
Dewayne Dedmon (Out)
John Collins (Out)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.7 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (9 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.1 (4 of 20)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $8,100 | $8,200 | $14,700 | 33.8 | -3.1 | 32.0 | -1.8 | 1.06 | 29.0% | 27 | 29 | 21 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,500 | $5,400 | $11,200 | 27.3 | -8.4 | 28.4 | -1.4 | 0.96 | 19.5% | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,500 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 24.9 | -5.2 | 30.6 | -3.9 | 0.81 | 17.1% | 24 | 19 | 30 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,300 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 17.3 | 6.2 | 20.8 | 3.3 | 0.83 | 14.9% | 19 | 28 | 28 |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 0.67 | 7.4% | 24 | 14 | 7 |
| Marco Belinelli | $4,500 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 21.1 | -0.1 | 25.6 | -2.0 | 0.83 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| DeAndre Bembry | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 16.3 | 6.9 | 0.81 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (Cash), Marco Belinelli (GPP), DeAndre Bembry (GPP)
Orlando Magic
The Magic like to push the pace and in general, home teams are able to control the tempo of the game better than road teams. That’s good news for the fantasy production in this game. Both teams are ranked in the bottom eight in defensive efficiency, so if the pace of the game is up, this has sneaky shootout potential. The Magic are listed as 6.5-point favorites with an implied total of 112.3 points. Not only is that the second highest on the board, but it is nearly five points above their season average.
The Hawks are ranked 17th in DvP against point guards this season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. This is a great example of why it’s important to look at efficiency and DRPM rankings. Atlanta is ranked 29th in efficiency against the position and Dennis Schroder has one of the worst DRPMs of any player in basketball. My bold call in today’s “Expert Survey“https://rotogrinders.com/articles/fanduel-nba-expert-survey-wednesday-december-6th-2238073: is that Elfrid Payton would post a triple-double. His minutes have been trending upward and his price is sitting at a very palatable $6,500 on DraftKings.
I’ve mentioned this a number of times this season, but Evan Fournier is one of the streakiest players in DFS. We want to target him when he’s playing with confidence and that seems to be the case, as he is averaging 29 fantasy points over his last three games. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays, as people will be hesitant to pay over $6,000 for him. It’s hard to find a player that we can project to play 35 minutes, have a usage rate over 20%, and have a price under $6,000, but we have one in Jonathon Simmons. This is a case where we don’t need to complicate matters — Simmons is an elite play in a great matchup.
Ersan Ilyasova and Miles Plumlee are actually decent defenders, but the Hawks struggle as a whole against power forwards and centers. They are also one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball. The issue with Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic isn’t the matchup, it’s that I like Payton, Fournier, and Simmons more and it feels strange stacking the Magic in a ten game slate. I will have some tournament shares of Gorodn and Vucevic, but most of my exposure to the Magic will come from the other three starters.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Doubtful)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.3 (2 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (1 of 20)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.6 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.9 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,600 | $6,500 | $13,500 | 29.4 | 7.0 | 27.3 | 4.4 | 1.08 | 20.6% | 29 | 17 | 29 |
| Evan Fournier | $6,400 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 28.5 | 0.1 | 32.2 | 1.2 | 0.88 | 20.6% | 4 | 26 | 2 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $5,800 | $5,200 | $10,100 | 21.1 | 1.1 | 26.9 | 9.1 | 0.79 | 20.3% | 30 | 28 | 21 |
| Aaron Gordon | $8,300 | $8,100 | $16,700 | 35.8 | 8.8 | 33.4 | 5.2 | 1.07 | 19.1% | 16 | 24 | 7 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $8,100 | $7,500 | $13,800 | 35.4 | 1.3 | 29.7 | 0.0 | 1.19 | 21.8% | 21 | 18 | 9 |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (DK), Evan Fournier (GPP), Jonathon Simmons
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (FD), Evan Fournier (Cash), Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
| Dallas Mavericks | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 8.5 | Vegas Spread | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 96.5 | Implied Team Total | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 2 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 15 | DvP | 23 | 19 | 6 | 21 | 16 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 17 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 28 | 30 | 19 | 15 | |
Dallas Mavericks
After liking everyone on the Magic, we arrive at a team that has little to no offerings in terms of viable DFS plays. The Mavericks draw one of the worst possible matchups, as they take on a Celtics’ team that is ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. I talked about this a bit the other day, but why aren’t the Celtics getting any respect from the oddsmakers? They have won 21 of their last 23 games, they have one of the best defenses in the NBA, and they are only 8.5-point favorites at home against the Mavericks?
While I don’t necessarily agree with the spread in this game, even at 8.5 points it is right on the edge of being a potential blowout. Add in the fact that the Celtics are ranked 15th or better in fantasy points allowed to every position on the floor and the Mavericks become an easy fade in cash games. The only player that I would consider in large field tournaments is J.J. Barea, who is averaging 31 fantasy points over his last four games.
Notable Injuries
Nerlens Noel (Questionable)
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 100.8 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.5 (19 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 (16 of 20)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.1 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $5,600 | $5,300 | $12,000 | 25.9 | -2.8 | 28.3 | -1.2 | 0.92 | 26.8% | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| Wesley Matthews | $4,500 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 22.2 | -2.6 | 34.4 | -2.9 | 0.64 | 15.2% | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Harrison Barnes | $7,000 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 31.1 | 0.6 | 35.2 | -0.8 | 0.88 | 21.5% | 2 | 13 | 3 |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,700 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 15.0 | 4.4 | 0.63 | 11.2% | 18 | 1 | 2 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $5,100 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 22.3 | -1.2 | 24.7 | -0.4 | 0.90 | 17.8% | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| J.J. Barea | $5,100 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 23.4 | 7.9 | 22.1 | -0.3 | 1.06 | 26.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – J.J. Barea (GPP)
Boston Celtics
The Celtics continue to steamroll through their schedule and that should continue tonight against the Mavericks, who have the worst record in the Western Conference. While Dallas plays at a slow pace, they are still a decent matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 18th in defensive efficiency and 26th in rebounding differential. The Celtics have an implied total of 105 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
Kyrie Irving draws the best matchup of the five starters. The Mavericks are ranked 23rd in both DvP and efficiency against point guards and Dennis Smith has one of the worst DRPMs of any player in the NBA. I’m slightly concerned about a blowout here, but will have some shares of Irving in tournaments. With Marcus Morris out, that could lead to a few more minutes for the likes of Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Aron Baynes. I don’t see any as elite plays, but they are intriguing targets in large-field tournaments.
Al Horford has quietly been playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 39 fantasy points over his last four games. The Mavericks have one of the smallest starting frontcourts that you can find, so it’s no surprise that they are one of the worst rebounding teams. Horford is one of those plays that I would love in a smaller slate, but with Anthony Davis expected to miss another game, I have a hard time not paying up for DeMarcus Cousins in both cash games and tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Marcus Morris (Out)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.8 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (11 of 20)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,900 | $8,500 | $15,300 | 37.9 | -1.8 | 31.7 | 1.6 | 1.20 | 29.4% | 23 | 23 | 29 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,600 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 26.5 | -8.2 | 31.4 | -4.0 | 0.84 | 18.4% | 10 | 19 | 28 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,800 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 26.4 | 0.7 | 30.4 | 0.0 | 0.87 | 15.4% | 29 | 6 | 30 |
| Al Horford | $7,600 | $7,400 | $15,000 | 34.3 | 4.5 | 32.6 | 1.0 | 1.05 | 17.1% | 5 | 21 | 19 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,700 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 15.8 | -0.8 | 17.9 | -3.1 | 0.88 | 14.5% | 19 | 16 | 15 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,800 | $5,200 | $11,600 | 25.6 | 0.2 | 30.7 | -0.1 | 0.84 | 18.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford
Memphis Grizzlies at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.0 |  | Vegas Total | 197.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 97.5 | Implied Team Total | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyreke Evans | Ben McLemore | Dillon Brooks | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Damyean Dotson | Courtney Lee | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 10 | DvP | 7 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 14 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 17 | 8 | 27 | 16 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies finally snapped their losing streak the other night against the Wolves at home. They’ll look to carry that momentum into tonight’s game against the Knicks, who have been a lot better defensively than I expected them to be this season. New York is ranked 14th in points allowed per game and third in rebounding differential. The Grizzlies currently have an implied total of 97.5 points, which is the third lowest of the slate.
When it comes to the Grizzlies, there are really only two fantasy options of note. Tyreke Evans has flourished in the starting lineup, averaging 33 minutes and 37 fantasy points over his last four games. The Knicks have really struggled to contain point guards this season, ranking 26th in efficiency and 27th in DvP. Evans is expensive, but I love that he is listed as a shooting guard on FanDuel. This allows us to take three point guards even though they are technically only two roster spots for the position.
Marc Gasol is having one of his best statistical seasons of his career. The masses haven’t paid any attention because this is Memphis and they have been struggling over the last couple of weeks. If you aren’t paying up for DeMarcus Cousins or if you want to target two centers on DraftKings, Gasol is an excellent play. He averages 35 minutes a game, he has a true usage rate of 25%, and he comes into tonight’s contest in good form. Gasol offers a high floor and a high ceiling, which is rare for a center these days.
Notable Injuries
Brandan Wright (Out)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 98.1 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.5 (18 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.6 (13 of 20)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.9 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreke Evans | $7,800 | $7,600 | $14,500 | 32.2 | 5.0 | 29.2 | 3.7 | 1.10 | 25.8% | 26 | 27 | 11 |
| Ben McLemore | $3,700 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 12.7 | 3.8 | 19.7 | 3.1 | 0.65 | 15.3% | 6 | 15 | 12 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,200 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 17.4 | -6.4 | 29.2 | -1.4 | 0.59 | 12.2% | 23 | 14 | 14 |
| JaMychal Green | $5,100 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 20.3 | 2.2 | 26.1 | 3.1 | 0.78 | 15.6% | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,500 | $8,000 | $14,300 | 40.0 | 0.2 | 34.7 | 1.7 | 1.15 | 24.7% | 4 | 10 | 14 |
Elite Plays – Tyreke Evans (FD), Marc Gasol (DK)
Secondary Plays – Tyreke Evans (DK), Marc Gasol (FD)
New York Knicks
The Knicks have dealt with a number of injuries this season, yet they can climb back to .500 overall with a win tonight at home. Unfortunately for DFS purposes, they draw one of the worst matchups on the schedule. On the season, the Grizzlies are ranked dead last in pace of play (only 96.5 possessions per 48 minutes) and sixth in points allowed per game. The Knicks have an implied total of 99.5 points, which is the sixth lowest on the board and nearly five points below their season average.
Even though this is an awful matchup on paper, there are two players from the Knicks that I have my eye on for tournaments. The first is Courtney Lee, who let everyone down on Monday night against the Pacers. With Tim Hardaway out for the foreseeable future, Lee could become the number two option offensively. His price is affordable and prior to Monday, he had scored at least 19 fantasy points in 14 straight games. If we run the best tool in fantasy basketball (CourtIQ) with Hardaway off the floor, we can see that Kristaps Porzingis has a 43% usage rate with a FP/min of 1.40. These are massive bumps and should not be taken lightly. The matchup and the injury will keep his ownership incredibly low. This is the perfect time to load up on the unicorn in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Tim Hardaway (Out)
Kristaps Porzingis (Probable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -4.5 (17 of 20)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.7 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.5 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,600 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 18.3 | -2.6 | 26.0 | -3.7 | 0.71 | 15.8% | 15 | 7 | 23 |
| Damyean Dotson | $3,800 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 0.62 | 13.8% | 5 | 10 | 17 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,200 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 24.7 | -0.4 | 32.2 | -2.3 | 0.77 | 15.4% | 1 | 10 | 8 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,000 | $8,100 | $15,900 | 41.0 | -22.1 | 31.5 | -13.7 | 1.30 | 29.7% | 25 | 13 | 27 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,200 | $6,400 | $14,300 | 30.5 | 2.4 | 26.0 | -1.0 | 1.17 | 17.9% | 9 | 5 | 16 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $3,800 | $4,100 | $7,900 | 19.4 | 0.0 | 16.4 | -0.5 | 1.18 | 15.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |