NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 14th

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Miami Heat Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total 202.5 Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Implied Team Total 97.5 Implied Team Total 105.0
Pace Projection +/- 2.3 Pace Projection +/- -2.5
Projected Starters Goran Dragic Tyler Johnson Josh Richardson Justise Winslow Hassan Whiteside Projected Starters Ben Simmons J.J. Redick Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 16 21 21 17 13 DvP 3 12 3 4 10
DRPM Rat. 1 27 1 23 2 DRPM Rat. 24 23 4 2 1

Miami Heat

Happy love day everyone! Full disclosure, I have a dentist appointment to get to this afternoon and there are 12 games on the schedule, so I am going to save time wherever possible in today’s Grind Down. We start with the Heat and Sixers in a game that features a total of 202.5 points. The Heat are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and come into this game with the lowest implied total on the board at 97.5 points. They also have the fourth worst projected point differential at -2.8.

For whatever reason, the Heat decided to limit Tyler Johnson’s minutes last night. A large part of that was how well Dwyane Wade played off the bench. I’m expecting Johnson to see a full complement of minutes tonight, as Wade will likely rest (he usually does in back-to-back situations) or be limited. Johnson is still only $4,200 on FanDuel and he draws the best matchup of the five starters, as the Sixers are ranked 19th in efficiency against shooting guards. After burning a few bridges last night, we should be able to target Johnson at low ownership.

Goran Dragic and Josh Richardson are both cheap on DraftKings, but they will get lost in the shuffle in a slate this size. Bam Adebayo was a popular tournament target last night and should push for minutes in the mid-20s again tonight. Kelly Olynyk has already been ruled out and Adebayo has averaged 26 fantasy points over his last five games. Dollar for dollar, I prefer him over Hassan Whiteside, who can’t seem to string together more than a couple productive outings at a time.

Notable Injuries

Kelly Olynyk (Out)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 100.3 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.5 (24 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (21 of 24)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.7 (5 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,000 $6,600 $11,400 30.2 5.9 31.8 1.7 0.95 25.5% 2 16 1
Tyler Johnson $4,200 $4,800 $9,500 22.3 -2.7 29.4 0.0 0.76 17.5% 19 21 27
Josh Richardson $6,700 $5,700 $11,200 26.3 5.0 34.2 1.7 0.77 16.9% 14 21 1
Justise Winslow $3,700 $3,900 $7,600 17.9 -2.8 23.3 -0.7 0.77 14.2% 8 17 23
Hassan Whiteside $7,600 $7,400 $13,700 34.9 0.9 25.7 0.3 1.36 20.5% 7 13 2
James Johnson $4,300 $4,600 $9,000 24.1 -2.4 26.7 -0.1 0.90 18.3% N/A N/A N/A
Dwyane Wade $4,700 $4,600 $9,100 23.7 -2.6 23.2 -1.3 1.02 23.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bam Adebayo $5,400 $5,300 $10,500 19.2 6.9 20.6 3.9 0.93 14.4% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Tyler Johnson (FD)

Secondary Plays – Tyler Johnson (DK), Goran Dragic (DK), Josh Richardson (DK), Bam Adebayo (GPP)


Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers draw a difficult matchup on paper, but it helps that they are playing at home. On the season, Miami is ranked 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Sixers currently have an implied total of 105 points, which is the ninth lowest on the board and nearly three points below their season average. The fantasy appeal of this team is going to hinge on the availability of Joel Embiid, who was added to the injury report with an ankle injury.

If Embiid is active, he becomes one of my favorite targets at any position. He is only $9,700 on DraftKings, he has been in great form (47 fantasy points per game over his last five), and he has a good track record against Hassan Whiteside. If Embiid plays, he’s really the only Sixers’ player on my radar. If Embiid is ruled out, we can load up on the rest of the Sixers. Embiid averages nearly 32 minutes and 46 fantasy points per game, which is a huge void that the other players would have to fill. In that scenario, Ben Simmons and Dario Saric would get upgraded to elite plays, while Richaun Holmes, J.J. Redick, and Robert Covington would all be on my radar in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Joel Embiid (Questionable)
Justin Anderson (Out)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.5 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (16 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -2.5 (20 of 24)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (28 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ben Simmons $8,900 $8,000 $14,700 41.1 -0.2 34.9 -2.1 1.18 23.0% 1 3 24
J.J. Redick $5,000 $5,300 $10,400 25.7 -1.3 31.9 -3.9 0.81 19.4% 7 12 23
Robert Covington $5,600 $5,200 $10,900 27.5 -2.6 32.4 0.0 0.85 15.1% 14 3 4
Dario Saric $6,700 $6,200 $12,000 27.9 1.7 30.7 1.9 0.91 18.1% 11 4 2
Joel Embiid $10,200 $9,700 $16,900 45.5 1.5 31.6 -2.1 1.44 27.8% 8 10 1
T.J. McConnell $5,200 $4,600 $8,900 20.5 6.3 24.3 0.5 0.84 15.3% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid (if active), Ben Simmons & Dario Saric (if Embiid is out)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons & Dario Saric (if Embiid is active), Richaun Holmes, Robert Covington, and J.J. Redick (if Embiid is out)


Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Orlando Magic
Vegas Total 214.0 Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread -5.0 Vegas Spread 5.0
Implied Team Total 109.5 Implied Team Total 104.5
Pace Projection +/- 1.4 Pace Projection +/- 0.9
Projected Starters Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Dwight Howard Projected Starters D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Jonathon Simmons Mario Hezonja Bismack Biyombo
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 30 28 24 26 19 DvP 12 11 26 16 18
DRPM Rat. 19 28 30 23 26 DRPM Rat. 14 15 9 16 7

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets haven’t played great on the road this season, but draw one of the top matchups on the schedule. The Magic like to push the pace and are ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hornets come into the game as 5-point favorites with an implied total of 109.5 points. Their team total is the ninth highest on the board and three points above their season average.

Point guards have had plenty of success against the Magic this season. While Elfrid Payton is no longer with the team, it’s not like D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack are the best on-ball defenders. Kemba Walker has plenty of upside in this spot and he should come at low ownership with a price tag of $8,600 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Nicolas Batum always seems a bit overpriced when you look at his season averages, but he should play 32-34 minutes against the Magic. I’ll never talk someone out of targeting players against Orlando.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has not played well over his last five games, but his priced has dropped all the way down to $4,000 on FanDuel and $4,200 on DraftKings. At the very least, he deserves consideration in tournaments. Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky are also dirt cheap on FanDuel and make sense as large-field tournament punts. Dwight Howard has scored at least 32 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games against his former team. Despite a good reputation, Bismack Biyombo has not been a good defender this season. Howard has 50+ fantasy point type of upside tonight and is one of my favorite tournament targets on the board.

Notable Injuries

None

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.1 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (9 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (7 of 24)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (7 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,600 $8,600 $15,400 37.9 -0.8 35.0 -0.9 1.08 27.3% 28 30 19
Nicolas Batum $6,200 $6,200 $12,700 26.1 -0.6 31.6 0.5 0.83 18.8% 26 28 28
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,000 $4,200 $8,300 20.2 -6.9 26.3 0.4 0.77 14.8% 28 24 30
Marvin Williams $4,000 $4,100 $8,000 19.4 0.4 25.9 -2.0 0.75 12.8% 19 26 23
Dwight Howard $8,300 $8,200 $14,600 36.9 -3.7 31.0 -0.1 1.19 19.1% 21 19 26
Frank Kaminsky $3,900 $4,500 $8,600 19.0 -0.4 23.4 0.6 0.81 19.1% N/A N/A N/A
Jeremy Lamb $4,600 $4,600 $9,500 24.4 -0.7 24.9 -3.3 0.98 22.1% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Dwight Howard (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (Cash), Dwight Howard (Cash), Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Frank Kaminsky (FD), Marvin Williams (FD)


Orlando Magic

The Magic continue to be short-handed, as they await the return of Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, and Terrence Ross. While their matchup against the Hornets doesn’t look great on paper, it helps that this game is being played in Orlando. The spread is only five points and as I mentioned earlier, the Hornets haven’t been very effective away from home this season. The Magic have an implied total of 104.5 points, which is slightly below their season average.

How frustrating is Frank Vogel? When the Magic traded Elfrid Payton, I thought we would finally see one of their point guards get consistent playing time. Over the last three games, D.J. Augustin has played 35, 23, and 22 minutes. During that same stretch, Shelvin Mack has played 21, 27, and 25 minutes. This is certainly a spot where I’d like to target Augustin or Mack, but I can’t do it given their wide range of potential outcomes. We should be able to find better options at point guard in a 12 game slate.

Evan Fournier and Jonathon Simmons will have their hands full with two good perimeter defenders in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. It’s not that Fournier and Simmons can’t play well here, but we can afford to be picky with our selections in such a big slate. The one and only Magic player on my radar tonight is Mario Hezonja. He has averaged 35 fantasy points over his last five games and draws the best matchup of the five starters. On the season, the Hornets are ranked 24th in efficiency against power forwards.

Notable Injuries

Nikola Vucevic (Out)
Aaron Gordon (Out)
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Terrence Ross (Out)

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (17 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (17 of 24)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (11 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
D.J. Augustin $5,400 $5,000 $9,800 17.1 5.9 20.8 4.8 0.82 18.3% 16 12 14
Evan Fournier $6,700 $6,300 $12,400 27.8 0.9 32.3 -0.8 0.86 20.9% 11 11 15
Jonathon Simmons $5,800 $5,200 $10,000 22.8 4.1 28.9 2.2 0.79 19.6% 23 26 9
Mario Hezonja $6,200 $5,900 $11,500 16.1 18.6 19.1 11.2 0.84 16.3% 24 16 16
Bismack Biyombo $4,800 $4,400 $8,600 17.5 5.5 19.3 3.7 0.91 10.9% 12 18 7
Shelvin Mack $4,800 $4,700 $8,900 15.2 9.0 17.9 7.8 0.85 16.0% N/A N/A N/A
Khem Birch $4,400 $3,600 $6,700 11.2 5.2 11.6 7.6 0.96 12.2% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Mario Hezonja

Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier (DK)


Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total 205.5 Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Spread 10.0 Vegas Spread -10.0
Implied Team Total 97.8 Implied Team Total 107.8
Pace Projection +/- -1.1 Pace Projection +/- 0.3
Projected Starters Malcolm Delaney DeAndre Bembry Taurean Prince John Collins Dewayne Dedmon Projected Starters Ish Smith Reggie Bullock Stanley Johnson Blake Griffin Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 9 8 29 15 8 DvP 20 16 30 27 29
DRPM Rat. 15 20 8 24 4 DRPM Rat. 19 N/A 26 13 14

Atlanta Hawks

I already broke down the Hawks, but after ruling out Dennis Schroder, Ersan Ilyasova, and Kent Bazemore, I figured it would be best to scrap it and start all over. The Hawks are now listed as 10.5-point underdogs on the road against a Pistons’ team that is ranked seventh in points allowed per game. While the matchup is far from ideal, the Hawks are missing three of their best players, which opens up minutes and usage in the offense.

Malcolm Delaney and Tyler Dorsey will both see a major boost in playing time tonight and they’ll square off against a Pistons’ team that has struggled to defend point guards. They are both close to minimum salary and we surprisingly have very little value in this slate. I’ll give the edge to the starter, but will have plenty of exposure to both. DeAndre Bembry missed nearly two months with an injury and only played 12 minutes in his first game back. I’m not sure he’s ready to handle a full complement of minutes. Taurean Prince on the other hand is in a prime spot. He should see a boost in playing time, usage, and his price is cheap across the industry.

We’ve been waiting and waiting for a time to play John Collins and I believe that time is finally now. There is some concern about potential foul trouble going up against Blake Griffin, but the upside outweighs the risk. The Hawks will need as many minutes as they can get out of Dewayne Dedmon. He’ll be tasked with defending Andre Drummond. Dedmon is an excellent tournament play and you can make an argument that he deserves cash game consideration as well.

Notable Injuries

Dennis Schroder (Out)
Kent Bazemore (Out)
Ersan Ilyasova (Out)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.8 (23 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -6.3 (24 of 24)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (21 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Malcolm Delaney $3,500 $3,500 $7,100 13.6 1.8 19.0 0.1 0.71 16.6% 22 9 15
DeAndre Bembry $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 11.0 -3.9 17.3 -5.2 0.63 15.1% 3 8 20
Taurean Prince $4,000 $4,600 $9,000 23.4 -6.8 29.9 -3.1 0.78 16.9% 24 29 8
John Collins $5,100 $4,600 $9,300 24.0 -1.4 22.1 0.3 1.09 16.0% 11 15 24
Dewayne Dedmon $5,700 $5,500 $10,700 23.7 3.1 23.4 1.7 1.01 15.0% 17 8 4
Tyler Dorsey $3,700 $3,800 $7,000 8.8 8.2 12.1 11.2 0.73 17.4% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Malcolm Delaney, Tyler Dorsey, Taurean Prince, John Collins, Dewayne Dedmon (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dewayne Dedmon (Cash)


Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have some work to do if they want to make the playoffs. They should be able to take care of business tonight, as they host a struggling Hawks’ team. This is one of the best matchup for fantasy production, as Atlanta is ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pistons have an implied total of 109 points, which is the tenth highest on the board and nearly six points above their season average. The concern here is that the Pistons run away with this game. With the Hawks missing three of their starters, this could easily turn into a blowout.

After scoring 28 or more fantasy points in five of six games, Ish Smith has been awfully quiet in his last two outings. Perhaps the addition of Jameer Nelson has cut into his playing time and productivity. Smith isn’t the worst point-per-dollar option on the board tonight, but I’m not looking to force him into my lineups. The Hawks have struggled to defend point guards this season, but Smith isn’t priced at any sort of discount. As I mentioned on Monday, Reggie Bullock and Stanley Johnson should both play minutes in the 30s, but both seem a little overpriced. If we are playing the price shopping game, Bullock is the better buy on FanDuel and Johnson is the better buy on DraftKings.

Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond are the top two targets from the Pistons, both tonight and every game moving forward. They are basically the new version of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Griffin has been quiet over his last five games, but should be able to excel against a Hawks’ team that is ranked 27th against power forwards. Drummond has 20+ rebound type of upside against a team that has the sixth worst rebounding differential in the NBA. I probably won’t be using Griffin and Drummond in the same lineup, but they are both elite options against a very beatable Hawks’ frontcourt.

Notable Injuries

None

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (10 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 5.6 (3 of 24)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ish Smith $5,700 $5,600 $11,100 21.7 0.7 24.3 4.2 0.89 22.8% 23 20 19
Reggie Bullock $4,700 $5,000 $9,800 16.4 8.0 25.9 8.5 0.63 12.1% 13 16 N/A
Stanley Johnson $5,300 $4,500 $8,600 18.5 1.2 28.0 2.6 0.66 14.5% 30 30 26
Blake Griffin $9,000 $9,000 $16,300 40.9 -2.0 34.4 -1.6 1.19 27.9% 21 27 13
Andre Drummond $10,600 $10,600 $18,100 46.0 6.9 33.3 2.6 1.38 19.0% 22 29 14
James Ennis $3,500 $3,400 $6,600 15.1 1.6 23.4 -3.4 0.64 11.0% N/A N/A N/A
Jameer Nelson $4,000 $3,500 $7,100 13.9 4.9 20.8 -1.4 0.67 14.0% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond

Secondary Plays – Ish Smith, Reggie Bullock (FD), Stanley Johnson (DK)


Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total 215.0 Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Implied Team Total 109.8 Implied Team Total 105.3
Pace Projection +/- 1.7 Pace Projection +/- -0.9
Projected Starters Cory Joseph Victor Oladipo Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Projected Starters Spencer Dinwiddie Allen Crabbe DeMarre Carroll Quincy Acy Jarrett Allen
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 25 13 10 29 30 DvP 7 10 11 12 28
DRPM Rat. 6 20 7 15 26 DRPM Rat. 27 1 29 14 19

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers come into tonight’s game as 4.5-point underdogs, as they square off against the Nets in Brooklyn. This is one of the best matchups on the board, as the Nets are ranked sixth in pace of play, 26th in points allowed per game, and 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Pacers come into the game with an implied total of 109.8 points, which is the eighth highest of the slate and three points higher than their season average.

Cory Joseph has made three starts at point guard since Darren Collison went down and he has yet to clear 15 fantasy points. That’s obviously a concern, but he has the chance to log 30 minutes against the Nets, so I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have interest at a price of only $4,300 on FanDuel. Joe Young has some tournament appeal off the bench, as he has outscored Joseph in two of the last three games. Victor Oladipo has been the biggest beneficiary of Collison out of the lineup. Over the last two games, Oladipo has scored 60 and 73 fantasy points. Even at an elevated price point, Oladipo is a viable target in all formats.

I don’t have a ton of interest in Bojan Bogdanovic or Lance Stephenson. While they both possess upside, they are a little too volatile for me to trust in a 12 game slate. I will note that this is a revenge game for Bogdanovic if you are into that sort of thing. The Pacers’ frontcourt has an amazing matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 28th in efficiency against power forwards and 30th in fantasy points allowed to centers. I’ve been patiently waiting (shoutout to 50 cent) for a time to play Myles Turner and this just might be it. His high price tag should keep ownership down, even though he has 40+ fantasy point type of upside.

Notable Injuries

Darren Collison (Out)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.8 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (8 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (9 of 24)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (6 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Cory Joseph $4,300 $4,600 $8,800 18.1 -1.6 26.0 2.5 0.70 14.6% 24 25 6
Victor Oladipo $10,200 $9,600 $17,500 42.8 14.9 34.5 2.1 1.24 27.4% 16 13 20
Bojan Bogdanovic $5,500 $5,600 $10,200 20.8 8.2 30.5 1.3 0.68 16.3% 4 10 7
Thaddeus Young $6,000 $6,400 $12,300 26.7 0.2 32.7 -0.9 0.82 15.2% 28 29 15
Myles Turner $6,800 $6,800 $12,400 29.7 -5.2 28.3 -2.4 1.05 17.9% 30 30 26
Lance Stephenson $5,000 $5,500 $10,900 21.1 5.0 23.3 3.2 0.91 18.9% N/A N/A N/A
Domantas Sabonis $4,900 $5,400 $10,400 26.3 -4.9 25.4 -1.3 1.04 19.0% N/A N/A N/A
Joe Young $3,700 $3,000 $6,000 6.2 3.2 10.1 6.2 0.61 15.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Myles Turner (Cash), Cory Joseph (FD)


Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are going to be without Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Caris LeVert tonight, which should open up minutes and usage in the offense. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Pacers, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Nets have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is slightly below their season average.

Spencer Dinwiddie seems to play well anytime that I don’t write him up in the Grind Down. When I feature him as an elite play, he tends to struggle. Perhaps he reads the Grind Down each day and puts too much pressure on himself. Kidding aside, he is firmly in play tonight on DraftKings at a price of $6,600. Cory Joseph isn’t nearly as good of a defender as Darren Collison. Allen Crabbe, Joe Harris, and DeMarre Carroll should all play close to 30 minutes tonight. If I had to rank them in terms of raw fantasy points, I’d go Carroll, Crabbe, and then Harris. D’Angelo Russell offers the most upside of the bunch and his minutes have steadily been increasing over the last few games.

Quincy Acy will flash some upside every now and then. Over his last five games, he is averaging 31 minutes and 23 fantasy points per contest. Against a Pacers’ team that almost always has two bigs on the floor, Acy has a chance to play 30 minutes once again and his price point is more than reasonable. After looking like he would be featured every night, Jarrett Allen has only played 17 minutes in back-to-back games. I love this spot for him (Pacers are ranked 27th in efficiency against centers), but Allen is best suited as a tournament play given the wide range of potential outcomes.

Notable Injuries

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Out)
Caris LeVert (Out)

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.5 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (14 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (15 of 24)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $7,700 $6,600 $12,300 29.4 6.9 28.8 5.0 1.02 23.2% 5 7 27
Allen Crabbe $5,300 $5,100 $10,100 21.7 6.0 29.3 5.2 0.74 16.9% 23 10 1
DeMarre Carroll $5,700 $5,700 $11,300 26.4 2.5 29.6 3.7 0.89 18.2% 6 11 29
Quincy Acy $4,400 $4,100 $8,100 13.3 9.9 20.4 10.3 0.65 12.5% 17 12 14
Jarrett Allen $5,800 $5,200 $10,000 17.2 9.7 18.2 5.3 0.95 13.9% 27 28 19
D’Angelo Russell $6,000 $5,500 $10,600 26.1 -4.4 23.7 -1.4 1.10 31.0% N/A N/A N/A
Joe Harris $4,500 $4,500 $8,600 17.8 8.9 25.2 4.9 0.71 14.9% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (DK), DeMarre Carroll (FD)

Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (FD), DeMarre Carroll (DK), Jarrett Allen (GPP), D’Angelo Russell (GPP), Allen Crabbe, Joe Harris


Washington Wizards at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards New York Knicks
Vegas Total 207.5 Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Implied Team Total 106.0 Implied Team Total 101.5
Pace Projection +/- -0.6 Pace Projection +/- 0.0
Projected Starters Tomas Satoransky Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Projected Starters Jarrett Jack Courtney Lee Tim Hardaway Michael Beasley Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 23 17 15 13 5 DvP 18 9 25 2 11
DRPM Rat. 18 16 15 26 28 DRPM Rat. 12 13 1 17 8

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are going to be short-handed tonight. They were already without John Wall and now their third-string point guard (Tim Frazier) has also been ruled out. Their second string point guard (Tomas Satoransky) is listed as questionable, as is Markieff Morris. Make sure to keep an eye on any update from the Wizards as we get closer to lineup lock. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 16th in points allowed per game this season. The Wizards have an implied total of 106 points, which is slightly below their season average.

If Satoransky is able to suit up, he becomes one of my favorite targets a point guard. He has played very well over his last five games, averaging 28 minutes and 30 fantasy points per contest. With Frazier out, Satoransky would likely push for well over 30 minutes. If Satoransky is out, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter would likely become the initiators of the offense. Both would see a healthy boost in usage and potentially in playing time as well. Beal is a borderline elite play regardless, but I’d obviously prefer him if he’s going to be one of the primary ball-handlers.

We have to take a wait and see approach with the Wizards’ frontcourt. If Markieff Morris is unable to suit up, we would likely see another start from Kelly Oubre. He has played well recently, but always seems to flop when he becomes the chalk at small forward. Mike Scott and Marcin Gortat would also see significant boosts in playing time if Morris is unable to play. If Morris is active, I will be avoiding the Wizards’ frontcourt altogether. There is a lot to like from Washington, but we have to wait and see who is available to play tonight.

Notable Injuries

Tim Frazier (Out)
Jason Smith (Doubtful)
Tomas Satoransky (Questionable)
Markieff Morris (Questionable)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 107.2 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (12 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (17 of 24)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (16 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Tomas Satoransky $5,600 $5,200 $10,000 15.0 14.7 18.1 9.9 0.83 14.8% 19 23 18
Bradley Beal $8,700 $8,900 $16,300 37.5 -2.1 36.3 1.1 1.03 26.0% 4 17 16
Otto Porter $7,400 $6,900 $13,500 30.4 3.5 31.8 0.8 0.96 16.9% 26 15 15
Markieff Morris $6,100 $5,900 $11,400 22.1 7.3 26.1 1.7 0.85 16.2% 7 13 26
Marcin Gortat $5,500 $5,300 $10,700 24.0 2.9 26.4 -0.8 0.91 13.7% 9 5 28
Kelly Oubre $5,100 $4,900 $9,600 21.9 1.8 27.6 5.0 0.79 16.3% N/A N/A N/A
Mike Scott $3,600 $4,300 $8,400 15.3 1.9 18.6 2.2 0.82 17.1% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Tomas Satoransky (if active), Bradley Beal & Otto Porter (if Satoransky is out)

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal & Otto Porter (if Satoransky is active), Mike Scott, Kelly Oubre, Marcin Gortat


New York Knicks

The Knicks will likely be in free-fall mode the rest of the season. Their superstar tore his ACL and they have no chance of making the playoffs. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked between 12th and 16th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Knicks have an implied total of 101.5 points, which is the fourth lowest on the board and two points lower than their season average.

Jarrett Jack and Courtney Lee minutes continue to trend in the wrong direction while the Knicks take a harder look at both Emmanuel Mudiay and Frank Ntilikina. I’m not too interested in any of the Knicks’ guards tonight, as point guard and shooting guard are loaded with options. Tim Hardaway is one of my favorite tournament plays. While the form hasn’t been great, he sees a major boost in usage and fantasy production with Kristaps Porzingis off the floor.

The Knicks gave us the old rope-a-dope the other night, saying that Michael Beasley would come off the bench. However, when it came time to play, there he was in the starting lineup. Assuming he draws another start, Beasley is one of the top small forward targets of the slate. He is averaging 28 minutes and 29 fantasy points over his last five games and he’s gotten the job done in some difficult matchups. Enes Kanter feels a bit overpriced tonight, especially in a difficult matchup against Marcin Gortat.

Notable Injuries

None

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.7 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (21 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (19 of 24)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (15 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Jarrett Jack $3,600 $4,700 $8,900 20.5 -9.4 26.0 -7.5 0.79 18.0% 13 18 12
Courtney Lee $4,600 $4,800 $9,400 24.3 -6.3 32.6 -4.3 0.74 16.6% 7 9 13
Tim Hardaway $5,500 $5,500 $10,800 28.0 -8.8 32.3 -1.6 0.87 22.0% 10 25 1
Michael Beasley $6,800 $6,900 $13,900 22.1 6.8 20.0 7.7 1.11 24.6% 19 2 17
Enes Kanter $7,100 $7,000 $13,200 30.3 3.1 25.8 3.7 1.17 18.7% 10 11 8
Kyle O’Quinn $4,300 $4,500 $8,500 19.6 3.2 16.9 1.7 1.16 15.3% N/A N/A N/A
Emmanuel Mudiay $4,300 $4,500 $8,700 15.9 6.7 18.2 3.6 0.88 22.7% N/A N/A N/A
Frank Ntilikina $3,600 $3,600 $6,900 14.2 -9.1 20.2 -2.2 0.70 16.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Michael Beasley, Tim Hardaway (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway (Cash), Enes Kanter (GPP)


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About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Incentives members on a daily basis during the NBA season with daily videos for the Court Report and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards..

    Notorious

    Interview after $100,000 Win

    January 5th, 2012 Daily Fantasy Fix

    February 14th, 2013 Daily Fantasy Fix

    footballguys.com Interview

Comments

  • bbqnut

    As someone who has spent a lot of time in the dentist’s chair, I feel your pain. My dentist is actually a huge sports fan, and plays fantasy so it’s not all bad.

    With the all star break almost here, I just wanted to express my appreciation for your column, as well as the premium video 5 days a week. Incredibly helpful, not to mention profitable.

  • gr33nappleboy

    Very surprised to see no mention of Thaddeus Young against his former team. He’s playing well

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