NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 1
Week 1 is a unique animal. With prices stagnating for weeks, as roles shifted around, there is a ton of value hanging out there. Digging deep into the player pool to diversify lineups, or to free up salary, is not as necessary now as it will be going forward. Enough bargains exist to litter your lineup with studs, reducing the need to use a “best of the rest” strategy, to pay up for diversification, or take fliers on long-shot players.
We will get into those approaches, and more, as the season progresses, but for this week let’s focus on picks with blow-up potential. Some will be more chalky than others, but that shouldn’t prevent us from making unique lineups. The first three running back picks, for instance, stack well with their team’s defense. Using barely-owned players solely in the name of making a unique lineup is a common mistake, and that’s especially the case this week.
On a quick personal note, it is an honor to be writing this column for the 2015 season. It has been an indispensable staple for DFS prep, and Bryan Fontaine did an awesome job with it. Bryan is one of my mentors, and he brought me into this fantasy writing thing of ours. Luckily, for all of us, I make it up to New Hampshire often to soak up his knowledge on all things football. He will help to keep us on track.
Okay, on with the picks.
Editor’s Note: FanDuel pricing was used as a reference for this article. If you haven’t yet signed up, use our FanDuel promo code to receive some of the best perks in the industry.
QB Tony Romo – Dallas Cowboys, $8,700
The Cowboys-Giants game features the second-highest projected point total on the slate, and considering the current state of the Dallas backfield, we can expect Romo to sling it. He loves facing the Giants, and last year was no exception. Romo piled up 554 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and a gaudy +8.9 passing grade in two games against New York – whose defense has taken a step back.
Romo’s impressive efficiency was greatly aided by facing less pressure than in past seasons. He was a league-average quarterback when feeling heat, but a top-three passer with a clean pocket. With improvement from Dallas’ already league-best offensive line, and a Giants pass rush that will be without Jason Pierre-Paul, Romo should have time to slice up New York’s coverage.
Romo also has a decent shot of not being highly owned. The excess salary that’s available this week will push Aaron Rodgers’ and Drew Brees’ ownership levels northward. Matt Ryan and the uber-affordable Sam Bradford have a dome matchup in the highest projected point total game of the week. Plus Tyrod Taylor and Kirk Cousins are cheap and trendy dart-throws.
QB Carson Palmer – Arizona Cardinals, $7,700
Quietly tucked just beneath five sexier offenses on the projected point total list are the Cardinals (25 points). That’s only a half point below the Falcons, yet Palmer’s ownership percentage may be just half as high as Matt Ryan’s. Is Arizona’s running game much less of a dumpster fire than Atlanta’s? Both the Falcons and the Cardinals are going score those projected points through the air.
Palmer was the eighth-best fantasy quarterback during his six starts last year. He is a 71.2-percent passer, with a 30-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, during his time in Arizona when he has a clean pocket. The Cardinals offensive line hasn’t come together as hoped, but the Saints pass rush is suspect. PFF ranked them 27th last year, and dead last this preseason, when they only managed two sacks.
Top cornerback Keenan Lewis and big ticket safety Jairus Byrd will be missing from an already talent-deficient secondary. The tricky part is deciding which receiver to stack. Larry Fitzgerald averages eight targets and more than twice as many points when Palmer plays, while John Brown has game-tilting talent. Either way, Palmer is a sneaky, $1,100-saving pivot on Ryan.
RB Eddie Lacy – Green Bay Packers, $8,500
It is no secret that Lacy is a top running back play, and he will have a high ownership percentage. But Lacy’s not just a top running back play, he is the top running back play. Plus, with all of the available value, top-priced Adrian Peterson should be more highly owned. DeMarco Murray is priced the same as Lacy. Jeremy Hill is just $100 more and faces the Raiders. C.J. Anderson is $100 cheaper.
The Packers should roll the Bears (six-point favorites), and do so while scoring often (28-point team total). The Bears transition to a 3-4 defense will be rocky, and their top nose tackles are suspended and concussed. Chicago’s potentially Alshon Jeffery-diminished offense may never get off the ground, leaving miles of positive game script for PFF’s second-most elusive runner to chew up.
There was talk that Lacy would be more involved in the passing game even before Jordy Nelson was lost for the year. With 42 catches in 2014, it wasn’t like Lacy was mistaken for an Alfred Morris type to begin with, as he graded as PFF’s second-best pass catching running back (+8.4). In a week where you’ll essentially be forced to roster a few top options, you might as well build a lineup around the best one.
RB Lamar Miller – Miami Dolphins, $7,300
The uber-efficient Miller was PFF’s fifth-highest-graded runner, and was second of all 100-carry backs in yards-before-contact per attempt (2.8). That bodes well for someone running behind an offensive line with some questions, not only because Bill Lazor’s scheme has created creases for him, but because he has the vision to find room for himself.
Miller also gets Pro Bowl left tackle Brandon Albert back from injury. Albert was the only offensive lineman on the team to receive a positive run-blocking grade (+6.3; ninth-best among 84 tackles). Miller still managed to finish as the ninth-highest scoring fantasy running back, and finished strong by averaging 19 carries for 135 rushing yards and a touchdown during the last two weeks of the season.
Word is Miller will finally get workhorse-level touches, and as a road favorite against a Washington run defense that graded dead last in 2014, is a great time to start. He ran well during the preseason, and even caught all five targets, while on the field for only 20 snaps, during the Dolphins’ dress rehearsal. This could be the last time Miller is priced at this level in 2015.
RB Chris Ivory – New York Jets, $6,400
Ivory’s biggest issue last season was decreased volume due to negative game scripts, and this sets up as a game in which he will be involved throughout. The best thing that Cleveland does on offense (the only thing?) is run the ball. That will be an issue against PFF’s second-best run defense from 2014. The Jets, who are three-point home favorites, significantly improved their secondary as well.
The Browns pass coverage (+45.1; 1st) dwarfed their run stopping (-11.8; 19th) last season, and that still appears to be the case, despite the addition of rookie nose tackle Danny Shelton. Ivory forced the fourth-most missed tackles per touch in 2014, and ranked fifth in Elusive Rating. He had the seventh-highest PFF rushing grade on a per-snap basis, of any runner with at least 200 snaps.
Ivory was fantasy’s 13th-highest scoring running back during the 12 weeks in which he had double-digit carries. As the unquestioned lead back, his touch total will surpass that level with ease – even if he is not as involved in the passing game as has been rumored. During the aforementioned 12 weeks, he barely caught more than one pass per game. He can wear the Browns out on rushing game volume alone.
RB Danny Woodhead – San Diego Chargers, $6,000
Digging a bit deeper, Woodhead looks like San Diego’s best backfield option against Detroit. Two-down back Melvin Gordon danced his way to a 2.3 preseason yards per carry average and -1.4 rushing grade, and the Lions boasted PFF’s fourth-best run defense last season. Despite Ndamukong Suh’s departure, that does not figure to change much – especially since Haloti Ngata steps in.
However, the Lions did allow opposing running backs per-game averages of 5.8 receptions (tied for fourth most), and 47.9 receiving yards (sixth-most), and all of their linebackers’ pass coverage grades were in the red. When we last saw Woodhead for a full season, he had 76 catches and was the standard scoring RB19. While he’s more attractive in full-PPR formats, his 37th-most-expensive price tag mitigates that.
For a “third down back,” Woodhead has strong scoring potential. We were reminded of this when he scored an eight-yard rushing touchdown in the Chargers’ first preseason game. In 2013, he ranked eighth overall in red zone targets (23) and added 20 rushes from the paint. Philip Rivers won’t have red zone binky Antonio Gates, and Woodhead – who played nearly half of the first team preseason snaps – could benefit.
WR A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals, $8,300
There are so many top wideouts playing in projected shootouts this week that Green is being mostly ignored. His price is not so much of a savings on the top guys that he’s attracting attention, like Jordan Matthews and Davante Adams. He costs the same as the buzzier Mike Evans does in his matchup against Tennessee’s sorry coverage unit. However, Green will still be worth paying up for.
Another reason for the lack of buzz is, although we know it was because he missed three games and played hurt in others, Green barely finished as a fantasy WR2. Of course, when he was healthy he still did plenty of A.J. Green things – like posting WR2, WR3, WR5, and WR6 weekly finishes, and averaging 6.7 catches for 99.4 yards and 0.56 touchdowns during the nine weeks that his snap rate reached 80 percent.
Green will see plenty of D.J. Hayden, who last season allowed a 121.6 quarterback rating, a reception for every 8.7 coverage snap (56th “best” of 73 cornerbacks), and was the 55th-graded coverage corner. Oakland added PFF’s eighth-best run-stopping nose tackle, Dan Williams, to an already average run defense. The Bengals’ best bet will be to attack through the air with their best, if overlooked, weapon.
WR Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons, $7,600
If you’re still reading this after seeing that name, at least you’ll hear me out. White has practiced and will play in the highest over-under game on the slate. His team is projected to be playing from behind, and probably won’t be able to run the ball. White averaged 9 targets, 71 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns over the last seven games of 2014 – so it’s not like he is ready for glue factory just yet.
Plus, there has been enough Twitter buzz about Leonard Hankerson that it feels like 2013. White will almost certainly be more lightly-owned. He’s $3,100 more expensive, and his Rotoworld blurbs read like an obituary prequel. Mike Clay’s awesome Wide Receiver / Cornerback matchup chart lists Byron Maxwell as White’s assignment, but word is he will shadow Julio Jones all night.
The chart also lists Hankerson as Atlanta’s slot man, but at this stage White profiles better in that role, and a matchup with the up-and-down Nolan Carroll. To be certain, this play is not for the faint of heart, and it is an expensive way of getting a piece of the Falcons passing game. But one thing we do know for sure is that everyone and their grandmother will be stacking Ryan with Jones and/or Hankerson.
WR Jordan Matthews – Philadelphia Eagles, $6,800
Matthews is such a strong value that he’s being mentioned along with Davante Adams when it comes to the best receiver plays on the board. But even if he’s in as many lineups, which he probably won’t be, Matthews offers the higher ceiling. Fading Adams to differentiate your lineup is one thing, but we’re going to want a piece of Philadelphia’s offense Monday night.
The Eagles should run the most plays this week, have the highest team total on the board, and are projected to shoot it out in a dome against a team with little chance of playing keep-away with their running game. The biggest worry is Philadelphia blows Atlanta out early and pounds the clock away on the ground. But even then, Matthews will likely do heavy lifting early on.
Matthews, who ran 92.4 percent of his routes from the slot last season, avoids the only Falcons cornerback with a prayer of covering him, Desmond Trufant. Instead he gets to dog-walk the 5-foot-10 Robert Alford around the dome all night. Alford’s coverage grade (-6.2) ranked 87th last year, he was in the top-10 for most yards allowed per coverage snap, and he gave up six scores.
WR Rueben Randle – New York Giants, $5,300
The final weeks of 2014 seem like a lifetime ago, but when we last saw Randle, he tallied 290 yards on 12 receptions, with a touchdown, during Weeks 16 and 17. Littered throughout what was generally viewed as a disappointing season were blow-up weeks, and with the Giants-Cowboys game boasting the second-highest projected total this week, we could be staring at one to kick off 2015.
Over the last nine games, the Giants ran the second-most plays per game (69.8), while going up-tempo at the second-highest rate (39.2 percent). Randle will rarely come off of the field, and will run most routes against Morris Claiborne. The former first-rounder allowed a 121.5 quarterback rating, and managed to post a -5.0 cumulative pass coverage grade (188th of 230 cornerbacks) in just 151 snaps.
Randle was targeted nine or more times in half of his games in 2014. His 21 red zone targets tied for tenth most in the NFL. If he’d converted targets into touchdowns last year (two percent) at close to the same rate as he did in 2013 (eight percent), he’d have more buzz. Although then he wouldn’t get to take advantage of him being the 57th-most expensive wideout.
TE Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys, $5,800
With Rob Gronkowski off the table, the temptation is to go cheap at tight end. While Witten isn’t exactly cheap, his price is not prohibitive relative to what he can provide on Sunday night. The Cowboys are projected for slightly below the top team total this week, and Witten is a nifty way to get a share of that – or to pivot from the obvious Romo + Dez Bryant stack (or as a QB-WR-TE stack, if you’re feeling frisky).
PFF’s third-highest-graded pass catching tight end may run like a dad, but he will be just as involved as ever. New York surrendered an average of 5 catches, for 75 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns to Cowboys tight ends in their two meetings last year. New York’s linebackers and safeties are an injury and inexperience-riddled mess. Romo will be faced with quality outside coverage, and a soft interior that he can exploit.
TE Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins, $5,000
Reed will play a ton this week, and should challenge his career-high 84.5-percent snap rate that was set in Week 14 of last year. The Redskins simply don’t have any other options. On the rare occasions that Reed has been healthy, he has been heavily involved. Last year he averaged 18 percent of Washington’s targets when he played, and he’s been busy on a per-route basis as well.
Dolphins linebackers have been up-and-down in coverage, and Miami allowed their two highest fantasy point totals to tight ends over the last three weeks of 2014. Washington should struggle to move the ball on the ground, and will be forced to throw. They also don’t feature strong red zone pass-catching options at wideout, making Reed the most likely candidate to get those high leverage targets.