NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 10
The focus this week is on high-priced running backs, with one standing out among them. David Johnson is someone we need to have exposure to. How much is debatable, as he is the week’s most expensive player ($9,400) and will be extremely high-owned. Could he suffer an abdominal strain while laughing at the 49ers’ run-stoppers, or lose touchdowns to his receivers and defense? Of course he could, and 100-percent exposure to anyone – especially expensive chalk – is unnecessarily aggressive.
While too much Johnson exposure in the desert could burn us, we’d better have some. Fortunately there are other ways to differentiate our lineups, especially given the relative lack of “free square” value plays we’d gravitate toward. Just below the four stud running backs are a handful of interesting options to help us save salary and create unique roster configurations — and a few of them are detailed below.
We also have seven matchups with projected totals of at least 48 points, in addition to a potentially fast-paced Monday Night Football game with shootout potential. This offers us several targets for game-and team-stacks. The temptation to ride the four horsemen running backs of Week 10 will be great, and for good reason. Yet, come Sunday night, they will very likely not be the top four backs in fantasy scoring, and we’d be wise to not hitch all of our Week 10 wagons to them.
We’re into the double-digit weeks, so be sure to savor the flavor while it lasts. Good luck in Week 10 everyone.
QB Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers, $9,000
Rodgers was three yards shy of a 300-yard, three-touchdown performance last week and it still felt disappointing. This relatively sour taste, combined with his quarterback-high salary and several attractive plays priced more affordably, will conspire to keep his ownership rate low for an elite passer. Throw in a general lack of available value this week and it’s easy to overlook Rodgers’ plus matchup and ridiculous passing volume as we descend the quarterback salary list.
Rodgers is the easiest way to access the Packers’ side of a game with the third-highest projected total (49 points). We don’t have to decipher if Randall Cobb is healthy enough to gum up the works for Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery – let alone whatever Richard Rodgers was trying to do last week with nine targets. Since Eddie Lacy got hurt, Rodgers leads the league in dropbacks (157) and touchdown passes (10). He faces a Titans defense allowing 325.3 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns over the last four weeks. They grade 27th in pass coverage and Rodgers will again be throwing all game.
QB Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles, $6,800
The 25th-most-expensive quarterback’s price tag may be tempting for cash games, but his risk profile is GPP-only. While there is concern over head coach Doug Peterson’s preference that Wentz throw less often after taking 96 dropbacks in the last two games, the matchup and the Eagles’ roster aren’t set up for it. Passing downs back Darren Sproles is being used like a starter, with 80-plus-percent snap rates the past two weeks. He is averaging 5.5 targets over that span and will help pad Wentz’s stats against a Falcons’ defense allowing the second-most receptions and receiving yards to running backs on a per-game basis.
Atlanta give up the most points per game to fantasy quarterbacks, with opposing passers averaging the second-most attempts and most touchdowns against them. The Eagles have a solid 25.5-point implied total (sixth-highest), and unless Ryan Mathews vultures in from the sideline, Wentz should figure prominently in most of their scoring. He also is stackable with several teammates – including Sproles, Zach Ertz, and Jordan Matthews – in a game with the highest projected point total (50) on the slate. Peterson may need to postpone scaling back Wentz’s passing volume until after this likely shootout.
RB DeMarco Murray – Tennessee Titans, $7,400
Murray saw his price drop by $700 after a solid game against the Chargers in which he gained 80 total yards and a touchdown on 21 touches. His seven targets and receptions both tied season-highs. He forced five missed tackles and his rushing grade ranked seventh-best on the week — both were Murray’s best efforts since Week 5. Among all running backs, he ranks third in handoffs, second in rushing yards, third in total touchdowns, fifth in targets, and is tied for the third-most receptions. His three-down profile keeps him relevant in any game script and backup Derrick Henry is doubtful to suit up.
Ownership of Murray should be low due to Marcus Mariota’s recent success, Green Bay’s weakness against the pass, and their perceived dominance of opposing running games. They have indeed been stout for most of the season, while grading fourth-best and allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry. Of course, the Packers allowed 5.1 yards per carry to Cowboys’ running backs and 4.8 to Falcons’ runners. Those offenses feature the third- and seventh-graded run blocking, respectively. The Titans rank second-best, and are short home underdogs (2.5-points) – typically a sweet spot to take fade the favorites.
RB Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons, $7,000
Attention will be on Julio Jones against shaky cornerbacks, as well as on higher-priced running backs. Coupled with a seemingly prohibitive matchup, Freeman may be overlooked. Philadelphia allows only the 20th-most fantasy points to running backs, in large part because they’ve faced the eighth-fewest rushing attempts per game. They give up the 11th-most receptions to the position and Freeman possesses a three-down profile. Despite ceding passing game work to Tevin Coleman, who is very questionable play, Freeman still ranks 10th in receptions among running backs (28), one year removed from catching the third-most (73).
The Eagles allow 4.4 yards per carry (11th-most) and their run defense grades 23rd. They have held their own against many opponents, but most of them grade in the bottom-half for run blocking. Philadelphia faced two teams inside the top-10, with Washington rolling up 7.0 yards per carry on 33 handoffs, and Dallas averaging 5.5 yards on 34 carries. Atlanta’s run blocking grades seventh-best. In a game with the week’s highest projected total, the 12th-most-exensive running back fits most lineup constructions well by himself or as a high-volume part of a team stack with Jones and Matt Ryan.
RB Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers, $6,800
This feels like a spot to jump on Cam Newton at moderate ownership. He is due for positive passing touchdown regression and is always a viable tournament play – especially at home. This isn’t to say we shouldn’t have a couple Cam lineups, but Stewart may be the better play despite lacking his quarterback’s sex appeal. Stewart had scored four rushing touchdowns in two games before Carolina’s Week 9 tractor pull in Los Angeles. Newton averaged eight rushing attempts and scored twice in three games before his concussion, versus 5.3 runs and one touchdown in four games since.
During the three games since returning from a hamstring injury – including last week’s down game — Stewart is averaging 74.3 yards and 4.7 forced missed tackles on 19.6 carries per game. With Cameron Artis-Payne a weekly inactive, Stewart has gotten nearly all Panthers handoffs. He will face a middling Chiefs’ defense featuring an outsized reputation. Their declining run-stopping grades 14th-best for the season and allows the 15th-most fantasy points to running backs. Yet, they were just gashed for 5.6 yards per carry to the immortal duo of Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon — who combined 3.4 yards per carry before facing Kansas City.
RB Dion Lewis – New England Patriots, $4,500
Editor’s Note: Per ESPN.com, Bill Belichick said “it would take quite a bit” for Dion Lewis to pass James White on the depth chart.
Punt plays at running back are not only difficult to uncover, they are even harder to go through with. We want those studs this week. Yet, there’s value in forcing an alternate lineup configuration with pricier options elsewhere. What Lewis brings to the table – other than being our sixth-highest-graded running back during the weeks he played last season — is a key role in an offense with the second highest implied total on the slate. Bill Belichick mentioned “there’s a lot of carryover” from the Super Bowl against the Seahawks, and this puts the passing down back in focus (if Lewis is inactive, James White fills the role; $5,400).
After early-game LeGarrette Blount wasn’t gaining even three yards per carry, Shane Vereen wound up catching 11 of 12 targets. While the Seahawks allow few rushing touchdowns per game (seventh-lowest), they face the fourth most passing targets to running backs and have given up 12 double-digit-yard passes to running backs. Lewis had 18 of those in less than seven full games last season. Other punt options to consider for a lineup or two include Andre Ellington ($4,500) and Peyton Barber ($5,700; if Doug Martin doesn’t play). Darren Sproles ($5,100) and Rob Kelley ($5,300) will be more highly-owned, but still push us toward unique rosters.
WR Alshon Jeffery – Chicago Bears, $7,200
Jeffery will be heavily owned despite the fact he is priced the same as Larry Fitzgerald and Davante Adams in strong matchups. Jeffery should, however, cost more than he does – which helps when swallowing chalk. Finally healthy, he’s averaged 10.3 targets over Chicago’s last three games, without seeing fewer than nine. Jeffery has the 14th-most deep targets and 11 of the receivers ahead of him have more overall targets. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most deep completions (37), fourth-most deep touchdowns (seven), and the third-most points per game to fantasy wideouts.
Also working in Jeffery’s favor from an expected-volume standpoint, is the Buccaneers operate at a fast pace and run more no-huddle at home (12.2-percent), while allowing the eighth-most plays per game and the fourth-most points per snap. Their pass coverage grades 26th-best and Jeffery will run roughly half of his routes against rookie Vernon Hargreaves. Over the last two weeks he’s allowed 19 catches on 27 targets for 298 yards and a score, and is our 116th-graded coverage cornerback (out of 117). Jeffery finally scored his first touchdown in the Bears’ last game and should continue to positively regress in a juicy matchup.
WR Emmanuel Sanders – Denver Broncos, $6,900
We want exposure to the game with a healthy 48.5-point projected point total, and the 18th-most-expensive wideout offers an affordable path to it. Sanders ranks fifth in PFF-charted targets (82) and has only seen fewer than eight on one occasion – when he got six looks in Week 6. Our 10th-highest-graded wideout has the eighth-most deep targets, while New Orleans has given up the seventh-most deep completions (31) and fifth-most 20-plus-yard touchdowns (six). Sanders also leads the NFL in red-zone targets.
Considering his heavy usage and affordable price, Sanders will not be low-owned. Yet, with teammate Demaryius Thomas also attracting attention, and the Broncos’ reputation as a run-first team, Sanders won’t be prohibitively popular either. New Orleans only gives up the 22nd-most points per game to fantasy wide receivers, potentially shaving some ownership off of Denver’s receivers. The ranking is skewed by allowing only 0.63 touchdowns per game to wideouts (third-lowest), despite giving up the fifth-most yardage on the 11th-most catches. The Saints’ pass coverage grades third-worst and Sanders is primed to ring them up for a big play or two.
WR Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints, $6,400
Since first cracking the 80-percent snap threshold in Week 3, Thomas is our sixth-highest-graded wideout in the passing game and averages 8.3 targets, 6.2 catches, and 76.5 yards, with five touchdowns. He is fantasy’s ninth-highest-scoring wideout during that span. Unfortunately he is now well-known enough to not expect light ownership. A couple factors hopefully keeping his traffic in check are Denver’s league-best secondary and their run defense getting steamrolled by the Raiders on national television.
Even if Thomas is popular, he offers the best route to Saints passing game exposure in a matchup with a solid projected total. The Broncos will be without our highest-graded coverage cornerback, Aqib Talib (back), and Thomas will run most of his routes away from the sixth-highest-graded Chris Harris Jr. Fully in Drew Brees’ circle of trust – as Coby Fleener peers through the window, freezing — Thomas leads the Saints in targets inside the 10-yard line (six) and in the red-zone (nine). Brees is 16-of-20 to Thomas when opponents bring extra rushers, for 218 yards and a touchdown. Denver blitzes at the league’s second-highest rate (41-percent of snaps).
WR Tyrell Williams – San Diego Chargers, $5,900
Still affordably priced, Williams is coming off of a six-catch, 65-yard, one-touchdown performance. He again graded positively in the passing game, which he’s done in all seven games when not facing Denver’s pass defense. Williams tied as our ninth-highest-graded wideout and Philip Rivers has a 119.7 passer rating when targeting him (sixth-best) during those seven non-Denver weeks. With the 34th-most-expensive price tag at his position, he should be popular. Yet, he’s priced next to a couple Matthews — Jordan in a strong matchup and red-hot Rishard – and will have the Questionable-tag.
The Chargers have a 25.5 implied total and the Dolphins allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wideouts. Of course, the majority of that production came before Jay Ajayi’s breakout helped Miami begin to limit opponents’ snaps. Yet, with Travis Benjamin looking doubtful to play, and a non-Broncos-game 7.8-target average since Week 2, Williams is well-positioned to mitigate volume concerns. Without Benjamin, who is tied with Williams for the team lead in deep targets (13), “The Gazelle” should see more downfield looks. He’s hauled in all five catchable deep targets for 191 yards and a touchdown.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs, $6,300
We are going with a pair of mid-priced tight ends this week since the next one is not on the main slate. Kelce wasn’t even on the field for a full game last week due to a run-in with an official. He still saw seven targets while playing three quarters of Kansas City’s snaps. It was the fifth time he got seven looks and came on the heels of a 10-target, seven-catch, 101-yard game in which he scored. Kelce’s 12 red-zone targets rank second-highest among tight ends and sixth-highest overall, while his six looks inside the 10-yard line are the sixth-most.
PFF’s third-highest-graded passing game tight end will again be busy against a Panthers defense allowing the fourth most fantasy points per game to Kelce’s position. While they’ve faced a small handful of slightly above average tight ends, they still haven’t faced a pass-catcher nearing Kelce’s caliber. Carolina has been stopping the run cold of late, allowing 3.07 yards per carry since their bye and 3.28 for the season. With Jeremy Maclin doubtful, Kelce will be the Chiefs’ best chance to gain chunks of yardage. Despite the 41st-deepest aDOT (6.9-yard average depth of target), Kelce owns a respectable 11.2-yards-per-reception rate (23rd).
TE Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals, $6,100
After dipping his toes in Week 7, and then playing 84-percent of snaps two weeks ago in London, Eifert is all-systems-go for Monday Night Football following an extra week of rest. He is already PFF’s seventh-highest-graded tight end after a single dominant performance against Washington, in which he caught nine of 11 targets for 102 yards and scored a red-zone touchdown. His 11 red-zone scores on 15 targets last season ranked second only to Allen Robinson’s 12, and Eifert was third among tight ends in fantasy point-per-game scoring.
The Bengals take on a Giants defense allowing the most targets to tight ends due to their strong perimeter cornerbacks and the overall volume of plays opponents run against them. New York allows a league-high 71.8 plays per game and since Week 2, teams facing them average 9.7 additional plays above what they run against all other opponents. If Eifert comes close to the 29-percent share of Andy Dalton’s passes, like he had in Week 8, we can again pencil him in for double-digit targets. He may not be on the main slate, but Eifert is worth a long look if we want a piece of the Monday night game.