NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 10
Week 10 features two positions where it’s attractive to pay up for the top options, and two where it’s more appealing to attack the next price tier. Despite this being the Season of the Cheap Quarterback, Aaron Rodgers is in too good of a spot to overlook, and it feels like a week in which gaining Todd Gurley exposure will be critical. They won’t pay for themselves, however, and there isn’t a shipload of value available like in Week 9.
At receiver, from DeAndre Hopkins earning Cincinnati’s undivided attention, to Odell Beckham in Bill Belichick’s crosshairs, to a Ben Roethlisberger-less Antonio Brown, we can probably approximate their production and save $1,000-to-$2,000 in the process. And then, as always, there’s the Rob Gronkowski question.
If we think this is a LeGarrette Blount week, and I do for reasons discussed below, Gronkowski’s usage is a concern. Last week he ran nine slot routes and saw five targets. His season average entering Week 9 was 16.6 slot routes and 8.6 targets. On closer inspection, in the three games that New England received positive pass blocking grades, Gronkowski averaged 21.3 slot routes, 12 targets, 7.7 catches, 105 yards, and 1.7 touchdowns. In the five games where the Patriots’ pass blocking graded negatively, he averaged 12.2 slot routes, 5.8 targets, 4.2 catches, 75.6 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns.
Tom Brady’s average time to throw is the league’s quickest (2.18 seconds), and it was 1.86 seconds last week. That’s how they are mitigating an offensive line injury Armageddon. Danny Amendola’s average depth of target is 6.6 yards, Julian Edelman’s is 7.7 yards, and Gronkowski’s is 9.8 yards. If he’s in-line more, and his routes take longer to develop, Gronkowski will see fewer of Brady’s quick passes – no matter how juicy the positional coverage matchup is. He clearly can still erupt on a limited workload, but with several viable alternatives that are at least $2,000 less expensive, I’m going light on the Gronk this week.
On to this week’s FanDuel tournament picks.
QB Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers, $9,200 (+$300 from Week 9)
After his second-half eruption in Carolina, Rodgers will be attractive in his return home. But with Brady $100 cheaper in a game with an over/under that’s 7.5 points higher, big spenders at quarterback will lean toward the Patriot. Yet New England’s implied total is less than two points higher, and their pace is trending in the opposite direction. The Packers run the no-huddle on 52.5 percent of plays at home, and Rodgers averaged 10.3 yards per attempt, with three touchdowns, while hurrying-up in the second half of last week’s game.
The Lions allow the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on a per-game basis, and passers are completing 71.1 percent of attempts against them. After dropping games to the best (Denver; +28.3) and fourth-best (Carolina; +24.9) defenses in terms of pass coverage grades, Rodgers gets to tear up the fourth-worst unit (-23.7). In their four games that followed a loss in 2014, the Packers averaged 36 points. He stacks nicely with several of his teammates, and is worth paying up for in a “get right” spot.
QB Sam Bradford – Philadelphia Eagles, $7,300 (-$300)
Bradford ranks fifth in Accuracy Percentage (76.8), and has PFF’s eighth-best passing game grade during the last five weeks that he’s played (+7.2). He’s had a league-high 8.7 percent of his passes dropped. Yet, the Eagles looked sharper coming off their bye, Bradford turned in his second straight positively-graded performance (+1.7), and he had a 74.1-percent completion rate, 10.3 yards per attempt, and a score from the no-huddle. Since picking their pace back up in Week 5, the Eagles lead the league in plays-per-game (77). It’s understandably taken a while for them, and Bradford in particular, to settle in — but with an implied total north of 27 points, patience should be rewarded.
Miami’s pass coverage grade is -14.8 (23rd) after crawling back to an even +0.0 two games into the Dan Campbell era. Allowing 10.7 yards per attempt, 74-percent completions, and a touchdown on every 10 throws will do that. Top cornerback Brent Grimes, 32, is fading like last season – with the eighth-best coverage grade through three games (+3.9), and the 87th-best since (-4.0). Their pass rush ranks first, but after averaging 18.3 quarterback pressures with a healthy Cameron Wake, they posted six last week. Bradford’s quarterback rating is 24.9 points higher (86.6) with a clean pocket than when he’s pressured (61.7).
RB Todd Gurley – St. Louis Rams, $9,200 (+$200)
With a salary that’s $600 above Adrian Peterson and $1,200 clear of Marshawn Lynch, both of whom have tough matchups, paying up for the top running back this week won’t be cheap. Yet the price will scare some people off, and he can be paired with the Rams defense, and/or a teammate who we’ll get to below, if we want to further diversify. St. Louis is favored by more than a touchdown, has a respectable 25-point implied total, and is in a great spot against a Bears team traveling on a short week.
Gurley has averaged 25.8 touches, 144.3 yards from scrimmage, and a touchdown per contest over his last four games. He ranks first in Breakaway Percentage (52.7) and seventh in Elusive Rating (58.4) during that span. Chicago’s run defense is not the total creampuff that it’s sometimes made out to be (+7.1; 16th), but they’ve recently allowed 5.5 yards per carry to Danny Woodhead (plus six catches for 78 yards and a score), and 5.2 yards per carry to Adrian Peterson. As he loves to do, Jeff Fisher will keep hammering away with Gurley until he breaks a long one, or three.
RB Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints, $7,500 (-$200)
Nobody was more disappointing last week than Ingram. Despite 26 touches, including two goal line attempts, he delivered a paltry 11.6 FanDuel points on a $7,700 price tag. After shooting a Rob Ryan-sized hole in countless tournament lineups, many of his burn victims will shy away despite Ingram’s heavy usage and plus matchup. His 88.3-percent snap share was easily the highest of his career, and he handled a ridiculous 89.3 percent of New Orleans’ backfield touches in their first game since Khiry Robinson’s season-ending injury.
Washington’s run defense continues to be exposed, and now ranks 28th (-29.3) after getting trampled during the last four games (-39.7). They have allowed lead backs to average 141 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 23.8 carries (5.9 yards per carry) over that time. Three of those teams (Eagles, Falcons, and Patriots) are top-10 run-blocking offenses, and the Saints rank sixth (+15.2). New Orleans has an implied total of 26.5 points, and Washington won’t be able to load up against the run with Drew Brees regularly shredding better pass coverage units than what they throw out there (-20.8; 27th).
RB Justin Forsett – Baltimore Ravens, $7,100 (+$200 from Week 8)
Only two games have a higher projected total (48), and Baltimore is favored by a healthy 5.5 points. Forsett’s pass catching keeps him game flow independent, but it’s nice to know that Vegas projects a Ravens-dictated script. Plus, with Steve Smith’s 10 targets per game now up for grabs, we should see a couple falling onto Forsett’s shoulders. Much of the depleted offense should flow through him in a spot with a nearly 27-point implied total for Baltimore.
Jacksonville’s run defense grades seventh-worst (-17.9), despite allowing a league-low 3.2 yards per attempt. On a per-game basis, the Jaguars surrender the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs, and the eighth-most receptions to the position (6.3). Their starting safeties grade negatively in pass coverage, as do all of their linebackers. There are flashier running backs in his price range, and Forsett disappointed in his last game, but it’s a nice spot to take advantage of what should be fairly light ownership.
RB LeGarrette Blount – New England Patriots, $6,900 (+$500)
While Blount’s price shot up, he remains undervalued for what should be a similar script to a Week 9 game that saw him pound out 129 yards and a score on 29 carries. He didn’t receive his highest regular season rushing workload as a Patriot only because Dion Lewis went down, or even because they got out to a 17-0 lead. Blount is central to mitigating New England’s personnel losses, particularly on the offensive line, and reducing Brady’s exposure to punishment. Despite his salary increase, Blount will be more popular than last week for good reason.
New England has faced five defenses with a bottom-10 rushing grade, and Blount has averaged 19.2 touches, 94.6 yards, and a touchdown in those games. The Giants rank 25th in run defense (-10.8) and just lost stud run-stuffer Johnathan Hankins (+12.9). While New England ran 76 plays last week, it was largely due to their opponent’s offensive miscues. The Patriots used a season-low 1.3-percent no-huddle and took 29.3 seconds per snap (Week 9’s sixth-slowest). With more bleak injury news of late, we can expect a reprise of last week’s non-conference game plan.
WR Randall Cobb – Green Bay Packers, $7,700 (+$300)
Despite the salary jump, Cobb’s salary remains just outside of the top-10 wideouts. He will be more popular than last week, but is still worth going back to the well on and stacking with Rodgers. Cobb put up 99 yards and a touchdown in Week 9, shredding a favorable matchup in the slot. He equaled his season-high of 12 targets from back in Week 3, when he posted 31.8 FanDuel points. This week’s matchup is similarly attractive.
On a per-game basis, the Lions allow the 10th-most fantasy points and 10th-most receptions to wide receivers, plus the seventh-most receiving yards. They have one defensive back with a positive coverage grade, Darius Slay, and he travels into the slot on even less often (two percent of snaps) than Cobb lines up on the outside (eight percent). Instead, Cobb will toy with sixth-round rookie Quandre Diggs, who hasn’t played many snaps, but already has dug himself a -3.2 coverage grade while allowing a 143.5 quarterback rating, two touchdowns, and not breaking up any passes.
WR Amari Cooper – Oakland Raiders, $7,100 (-$200)
Last week we took the salary savings and Michael Crabtree because when projecting a trend to change, in this case red zone targets and touchdown volatility, it’s only worth being contrarian if it puts us in a lesser-owned position. There’s no sense in bucking a trend if it won’t give us an advantage if we hit on it. This week, with the secret totally out on Crabtree, and Cooper tweaking his groin on Wednesday (he practiced in full on Thursday), it’s time to zig to the rookie when others are finally zagging to the vet.
Cooper saw 13 targets to Crabtree’s 12 in Week 9, and got twice as many red zone targets as he’d seen all season. Cooper scored on one of those two high-leverage targets, while Crabtree didn’t see any. Cooper will primarily face Xavier Rhodes, whose coverage grade (-9.6) ranks 105th out of 110 qualifying cornerbacks, and has give up five touchdowns. The Vikings sport a +17.0 run defense grade since their Week 1 gashing in San Francisco (-14.2), and the Raiders – who average 2.6 passing scores (2nd-most) and 270 yards (8th-most) per game – will again be throwing often.
WR Jarvis Landry – Miami Dolphins, $7,000 (No Price Change)
Rostering Landry is about as fun as a trip to the shoe store. It’s not crowded and you’re confident you’ll get what you need, but you wish there was another way to do it. Yet, Landry is in a good spot, both matchup-wise and from a projected game script angle. Philadelphia allows the third-most snaps and sixth-most pass attempts to opponents on a per-game basis. Miami’s 29th-ranked run blocking (-27.3) should struggle to consistently crease the Eagles’ seventh-ranked run defense (+21.7), and quick passes to Landry will supplement the Dolphins’ ground game.
Since Miami’s two-game winning streak, when Landry averaged 4.5 targets, he has seen 21 in two weeks — more in line with the 11.8 he was averaging through Week 4. He will primarily face off in the slot with safety Malcolm Jenkins, who can be shaken by quicker receivers, as evidenced by Cole Beasley’s recent four-catch, 52-yard, two-touchdown outburst against him. With no fewer than four sexier names within $500 of Landry, in either direction, his ownership should be low. The low excitement level comes free with the shoes.
WR Tavon Austin – St. Louis Rams, $6,000 (+$300)
It is not often that we can take upside shots with a special teams ace like Austin and remain confident that even if he doesn’t wind up breaking one, he will still deliver a usable floor. But with an average of 9.4 looks, 7.4 touches, 84.6 yards, and a touchdown per game over his last five, that’s what we have. Austin lines up all over, but will see plenty of flammable slot cover man Sherrick McManis, whose coverage grade ranks 102nd out of 104 cornerbacks since Week 4 (-8.0). During that time, he’s allowed a 147.7 quarterback rating, 19.5 yards per catch, and three touchdowns.
The Bears have allowed three return touchdowns (two kickoff, one punt), while no other team has given up more than one. They’ve faced the 11th-most combined kick and punt returns on a per-game basis (4.6), and if John Fox approaches this road game against an elite defense like Week 3 in Seattle – when they punted seven times – Austin will have several opportunities to score his second return touchdown of the season on an inconsistent unit. Pairing him with the Rams defense, against a historically mistake-prone Jay Cutler and a rookie running back, offers a rare low-risk double-dip opportunity.
TE Gary Barnidge – Cleveland Browns, $6,100 (-$500)
Call him Gary Garnkowski. Call him The Barnburner. Just only call him if Josh McCown plays. In the six weeks that McCown started and threw more than 8 passes, Barnidge averaged 8.5 targets, six catches, 85.3 yards, and a touchdown per game. He managed six catches on 12 targets for 90 yards and no touchdowns in the other three games combined. He threw up a Johnny Manziel-inspired dud in Week 9, and with Greg Olsen and Tyler Eifert in his price range, and Jordan Reed just below, Barnidge should be moderately-owned.
The Steelers allow the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends on a per-game basis, including seven touchdowns (third-most). Their linebackers have struggled in both coverage and with their tackling efficiency. Pittsburgh has also blitzed on 43 percent of dropbacks (fourth-highest) and 49 percent since Ben Roethlisberger’s first injury. McCown’s passer rating when opponents bring extra rushers (101.2) is higher than when they don’t (91.2), and Barnidge has 12 catches on 18 blitzed targets, for 161 yards and four touchdowns.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs, $5,800 (-$100 from Week 8)
There are several attractive tight ends plays, which should squash Kelce’s ownership percentage. We haven’t seen him since the Chiefs pasted the Lions two weeks ago, contributing to the lack of buzz. Yet in that game, with Kansas City putting up their most points since Week 14 of 2013, Kelce scored and saw eight targets. It was the first time this year, and third time in his career, that he had more targets than any other Chief. Kansas City is 3-0 in those games, and also beat Seattle and New England in 2014 when Kelce tied for the team lead.
While he wasn’t the sole reason Kansas City won those games, perhaps it sunk into Andy Reid’s head over the bye week that he needs to feature Kelce. Probably not. But either way, the Chiefs face a Broncos pass defense that funnels targets inside and has allowed three touchdowns to tight ends on 24 targets over the last three games. Aqib Talib is suspended, Chris Harris may shadow Jeremy Maclin, and both defended Kelce in the redzone back in Week 2. Like Pittsburgh, Denver blitzes like crazy (40.8 percent; fourth-most). Kelce has been Alex Smith’s second-most-targeted receiver on blitzes (Maclin has 16), catching 12 of 15 attempts for 141 yards.