NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 15
This is another brutal slate, but hopefully, we’ll be as successful as one of our other readers has been (shoutout to @NeilRagland).
Check out my Saturday article on PFF for a more comprehensive dive into all of the players I’m considering this week, but, right now, here’s my core for the DF/FD main slate.
Note 1: All numbers in brackets refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger [DK: QB2, FD: QB1]
Perhaps somewhat quietly, Roethlisberger ranks behind only Patrick Mahomes in fantasy points per game (22.7). Since 2014 (including the postseason), Roethlisberger averages 24.2 fantasy points per game at home and only 15.8 fantasy points per game on the road. That might be the craziest stat in all of fantasy football, and significant too, over a whopping 77-game-sample. Sure, he’s banged up (dealing with a rib injury), but that has never really mattered for Roethlisberger before, who has also shown a propensity to play through even the most serious injuries. Over this span, he averages 25.7 fantasy points per game when listed on the injury report (six games). On top of this, the matchup could hardly be better – New England ranks second-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
Perhaps the most-pressing debate for DFS players this week, is what to do with the Patriots/Steelers game. It has an over/under of 51.5. The next-closest slate-eligible game (Cowboys/Colts) has an over/under 4.5-points less, at 47.0-points. To express the gap between these two games, there’s only two games on the slate with an over/under 4.5-points less than Cowboys/Colts. Ownership will be high, but I’ll take a stand and opt for heavy exposure to this game in single field tournaments. The tougher question is who to stack him with.
Other: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, Nick Mullens, Kirk Cousins
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott [DK: RB2, FD: RB2]
Over the last five weeks of the season, Elliott has 119 carries and 40 targets. That’s more rushing attempts than all but 30 running backs have all year and more targets than Elliott had in all of 2016 or 2017. Over this span, he ranks seventh among all players in receptions and has 47 more touches than the next-closest player. That increase in volume through the air is going to be especially important this week, up against a Colts defense that is giving up the third-most receiving fantasy points per game to enemy running backs. Over this span, he also leads all players in expected fantasy points per game, with 24.3. For perspective, the full-season record this past decade was set by David Johnson in 2016, with 22.6. Production has been just as good as his volume, leading all slate-eligible players in fantasy points per game over this stretch (30.4). He’s a lock for me on both sites.
Saquon Barkley [DK: RB1, FD: RB1]
The winning strategy in DFS this year has been to pay up for the elite do-everything bell cow running backs. This week, that would mean paying up for Elliott and Barkley, as Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, and Melvin Gordon are off the main slate, and James Conner is likely to sit. Barkley leads all slate-eligible players (at all positions) in both expected- (20.3) and actual fantasy points per game (20.5). He averages 159.3 yards and 28.9 fantasy points per game over his last four games. He should get a slight bump in usage with Odell Beckham Jr. likely out (he already leads all players in expected fantasy point market share), and does perform better with negative-gamescript (the Giants are slight underdogs). By all measures this looks like a difficult matchup, but matchups have also been wholly irrelevant for Barkley all year.
Leonard Fournette [DK: RB3, FD: RB4]
As I mentioned in the Week 15 Actual Opportunity Report, Fournette might have the best guaranteed workload of any player this year. I wrote, “Fournette has been below average in efficiency this year but might be seeing the best volume of any player, if adjusted for lost quarters due to injury and suspension. Fournette has played in only 19 quarters this season (and only 16 full quarters). Across those 19 quarters he totals 97.0 expected fantasy points, or 20.4 expected points per four quarters. For perspective, Todd Gurley currently leads all players in expected fantasy points per game with 20.8.” Volume should be great and efficiency should be better this week, with good gamescript, favored by 7.0-points against a Washington defense that’s, since Week 9, given up 30.5 fantasy points per game and 5.34 yards per carry to enemy backs.
Other: Jaylen Samuels (possible lock if James Conner is ruled out early), James Conner (as a potential late-swap play if he’s active), Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Jeff Wilson (if Matt Breida is out), Doug Martin, Chris Carson
Wide Receivers
Julian Edelman [DK: WR9, FD: WR11]
Among active and slate-eligible wide receivers, Edelman ranks eighth in both expected- (15.7) and actual fantasy points per game (16.7), and ranks eighth among active wide receivers in salary on DraftKings. He’s seen the best volume of the receivers on his team – leading in expected fantasy points – in eight of nine games since returning from suspension. Josh Gordon is expected to draw Joe Haden in shadow coverage this week. Haden has shadowed in five games this year, holding the combination of Julio Jones, A. J. Green, John Brown, Devin Funchess, and Keenan Allen to just 136 yards and a score. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has been much more vulnerable to the slot, where Edelman runs 68% of his routes, and where they’re giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game.
Sterling Shepard [DK: WR27, FD: WR36]
With Odell Beckham Jr. out, Shepard becomes a top value play. He “underwhelmed” last week (catching two of six targets for 17 yards and a score), but also only played 67% of the snaps in a blowout. With Beckham out last week, he was kicked out of the slot, running two-thirds of his routes from the outside. Tennessee, meanwhile, is giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers, and the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s.
Amari Cooper [DK: WR8, FD: WR16]
Through the first six weeks of the season (with Oakland), Cooper ranked outside of the top-50 wide receivers in expected (8.9) and actual fantasy points per game (9.5). Then he had two straight bye weeks before playing his first game with Dallas in Week 9. Over the last six weeks of the season, Cooper ranks 16th in expected (14.6) and second among wide receivers in fantasy points per game (23.0). This implies he’s due for a statistical regression, and I think that’s true, but he’s still a borderline must-start on FanDuel, where he ranks as only the 16th-highest-priced wide receiver on the slate. Nothing about the matchup stands out, but it will be hard to ignore Cooper’s slate-busting upside.
Other: JuJu Smith-Schuster / Antonio Brown, Adam Thielen / Stefon Diggs, T.Y. Hilton, Kenny Stills, Dante Pettis, Chris Godwin, Tyler Boyd
Tight Ends
Premium Tight Ends
Much like with the running back position, you’ve been better off paying up at the tight end position in recent weeks. As I tried to outline here, there’s a massive gap between the top-five tight ends (Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Eric Ebron, and Jared Cook) and everyone else. Meaning, on this slate, we’re left to choose between the latter three.
All three tight ends rank top-15 among receivers in DraftKings fantasy points per game, and all three are at or below that in terms of salary rank this week. On FanDuel, Kittle isn’t as strong of a value (13th in fantasy points per game, 10th in salary rank), but Ebron (15 vs. 19) and Cook are (18 vs. 21). When factoring in positional advantage (how abominable the tight end has been minus these names [and Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce who are off the main slate]), they look like even better values.
Kittle is on pace to break the single-season yardage record for a tight end. He averages 17.5 fantasy points per game with Marquise Goodwin in the lineup, which would rank 13th among all wide receivers.
Ebron draws a Dallas defense that is giving up eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, and has seen ridiculous volume with Jack Doyle out of the lineup. In those games, he’s averaging 18.6 expected fantasy points, 15.9 actual fantasy points, 100.3 air yards, 10.1 targets, and 1.29 end zone targets per game. Among all receivers that ranks fourth-, 24th-, 17th-, fifth-, and sixth-best, respectively. Or, among tight ends, best (by +2.1), third-best, best (by +20.1), best (by +0.3), and best (by +0.29). He’s my favorite play at the position this week.
Cook has found the end zone in three of his last four games, and has posted back-to-back seven-catch 100-plus yard games. He’s been less productive and less reliable than the other names we’re discussing here but is also the cheapest.
Gronkowski deserves consideration too. In Week 14 Gronkowski posted his best game since Week 1, catching all eight of his targets for 107 yards and a score. It’s too early to know for sure if the old Gronk is officially back, and he is risky, but he also has the best matchup this week. Pittsburgh is giving up the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, and Gronk averages 26.7 fantasy points per game across his last four games against the Steelers.
Other: Austin Hooper, Vance McDonald