NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 2
With the much-anticipated Week 1 in the books, we can start to settle into a rhythm. While the inclination is to not overreact to what we just saw, underreacting can be just as dangerous. What we saw last weekend was the realest information we’ve gotten since Von Miller was wrecking Cam Newton’s coronation in February.
The trick is parsing which surprises are small-sample variance and which should cause us to adjust our expectations. We will get new data to analyze on Sunday, but what never changes is we want high-ceiling players – preferably as low-owned as possible – in our tournament lineups.
Here are some Week 2 FanDuel GPP plays. Good luck, everyone.
QB Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers, $9,000
We very rarely see Newton low-owned, but he has a chance to be palatably-popular in a juicy matchup. Drew Brees is only $200 more expensive and nobody has forgotten the last time the Saints and Giants played. Aaron Rodgers is $300 cheaper. There are several others down the salary list (Eli Manning, Derek Carr, and Matthew Stafford, in particular) who will draw attention. Plus Newton did not have a monster fantasy performance last week with 22 points, finishing a very beat up QB8. The good news is he and the Panthers will have nine days in between games.
The 49ers, who will travel cross-country for an early kickoff, have no such luxury after playing the late game on Monday night. With San Francisco now incorporating 70-plus-percent no-huddle, and Carolina featuring it often at home last year (33-percent of snaps), Newton will benefit from elevated play volume. He has an expanded group of passing game targets, remains a constant rushing threat (11 carries, 54 yards and a touchdown last week), scored nearly three more fantasy points per game at home in 2015, and faces a 49ers defense that allowed almost 15 more points on the road. With the highest implied total of the week, Newton works well in various stacks or deployed by himself.
QB Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens, $7,400
Flacco has generated more buzz around the fantasy community than would be expected from Week 1’s 24th-highest-scoring passer, but it’s not without merit. Fortunately we should not have to worry about him being overly popular. His ownership rate will be muted by higher-profile passers in glaringly strong matchups, quarterback ownership is typically flat, and #FantasyTwitter is more insular than it feels. This week’s 18th-most-expensive quarterback has a shot to post one of his patented out-of-nowhere stat lines, and do it in a game with a bottom-five projected total.
The Browns secondary is a sieve and allowed nine completions with double-digit target depths by Carson Wentz – including 19-, 22-, 24-, and 34-yard throws (two touchdowns). He was pressured once on those nine dropbacks. Flacco had nine such attempts last week, and while using the no-huddle (39-percent of snaps), he completed 79-percent, for 194 yards and a score. The Ravens running game is a mess (2.9 yards per carry) and PFF graded both run defenses well last week (7th- and 8th-best). Flacco and Josh McCown would be set for the unlikeliest of quarterback duels, if not for their teams’ combined 31.5-to-28.5 average score in a pair of 2015 meetings.
RB Lamar Miller – Houston Texans, $7,700
Nestled between a guy who shredded the Panthers last Thursday night and one who tore up the Redskins on Monday night, we have Miller. C.J. Anderson ($7,800) and DeAngelo Williams ($7,600) should draw down Miller’s ownership due to a combination of price proximity, recency bias, and a dream matchup with the Colts. The Texans did not play on national television and Miller turned in a workmanlike 3.8 yards on 28 carries, with an additional 11 on four targets. Yet, the fact that he did anything “workmanlike” should have us salivating.
One of the league’s most efficient backs never before had that many carries or touches. He has been our 5th- and 6th-highest graded rusher the last two seasons, while showing well in both Breakaway Percentage and Elusive Rating. Now he has the volume to challenge for fantasy’s top running back after sixth- and ninth-best finishes the last two years. The Texans are home favorites over a Chiefs team that was just carved up in Arrowhead by the Chargers running backs, who averaged 4.9 yards on 30 carries and added 31 yards on five catches, while scoring twice on the ground and once through the air.
RB Latavius Murray – Oakland Raiders, $7,100
Murray is priced in an area where there are few appealing options. We should see ownership gravitate a little higher to DeAngelo Williams’ neighborhood ($7,600), or a little lower to Spencer Ware ($6,800). Despite a solid Week 1 for Murray in which he graded positively in both the running (14th of 52 backs) and passing games (11th), a couple of red flags emerged. Rookie runners DeAndre Washington (6) and Jalen Richard (5) earned touches – with Richard taking one handoff 75 yards to the house. Murray also lost a goal line touchdown to fullback Jamize Olawale.
While it’s too soon to call Olawale’s vulturing a trend – he scored once last year and the closest he came to a goal line run was the nine-yard line — Murray losing touches to rookies is a concern. Still, he played 45 snaps, caught a 13-yard pass, averaged 4.2 yards per carry, and scored once in a frenetic shootout. The Raiders are 4.5-point home favorites, with a top-four implied total, against our ninth-worst-graded run defense. Atlanta faced our ninth-worst-graded run blockers last week, and now they get the sixth-best. If the workload worries, his pricing, and interest in the Oakland passing weapons conspire to keep Murray’s ownership rate down, then great. Buy when there’s blood in the streets.
RB T.J. Yeldon – Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,500
Yeldon is undoubtedly a fine cash games option, but his tournament ownership is a tough projection. On one hand, he has the entire backfield to himself (89.3 percent of Jaguars running back touches last week) with Chris Ivory sidelined, and a drool-worthy matchup. On the other hand, many people are convinced he’s not good at football, and his 1.9-yards per carry last week didn’t help. The bet here is both sides cancel each other out and Yeldon is not too high-owned or too low-owned. If we’re operating under that assumption, he is also a fine tournament option.
The Chargers run defense – which graded 32nd last year and made no real upgrades — allowed 6.4 yards per carry to Spencer Ware, who “tacked on” 129 receiving yards on seven catches. They folded like a tent when Keenan Allen was lost for the season, and – forgive the qualitative question — who knows where they are mentally? Even if they are frothing at the mouth, Yeldon’s dual-threat profile fits any game script, and there’s hope for a rushing rebound. He only averaged 0.3 yards before first contact against a quality Packers run defense. The Chargers allowed an average of 3.7 yards before laying a hand on Ware. If he sees another 25 touches (tied for 4th most last week), he’s GPP-worthy.
RB Rashad Jennings – New York Giants, $6,300
Just about everyone will be on the Giants passing game, considering the matchup, price, scoring pace, and the small matter of the teams combining for 1,024 yards and 101 points when they met last season. Of course we will want exposure – particularly in cash lineups — as “offensive eruption” is the most likely outcome. However, in a large field tournament, we need to keep an eye out for ways to differentiate ourselves, and the 28th-most-expensive running back represents a way to accomplish this while still gaining exposure to a powder-keg matchup.
Last week, Jennings ranked 32nd in running back snaps but still tied for the 11th-most rushing attempts, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and seeing a pair of targets. It came in a game where New York only ran 54 plays and was a continuation of the last month of 2015, when Jennings averaged 21.5 touches (versus 11.5 though Week 13). He was the third-highest-scoring running back during those four weeks. If the Saints can’t get offensive traction on the road against an upgraded Giants defense, Jennings is well-positioned to hammer away on New Orleans’ undermanned front – and do it with palatable ownership.
WR Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons, $9,300
When we get a chance to roster Jones with low ownership, we take it. When we can do it for a game with a top-three projected point total, and in which he has a favorable coverage matchup, we don’t think twice. Of course, his practice workload needs monitoring, as Jones is limited with an ankle injury he played through while producing 66 yards and a score. If he checks out physically, the injury works in our favor by suppressing already-depressed ownership rates. With the Falcons playing during the late slate and NFL’s new injury designation rules, folks will hesitate at lineup lock.
The main reason Jones will be low-owned is he’s the second-most-expensive wideout, while Odell Beckham costs only $100 more, Antonio Brown is $100 less, and A.J. Green is $400 cheaper. All have favorable matchups, not that any of the three require them. Jones takes on a Raiders secondary still smoking from the bonfire of points Drew Brees ignited in Week 1. While Jones lines up all over, he will primarily see Oakland’s top free agent acquisition Sean Smith – who was benched after allowing 183 yards and a touchdown on six targets. Smith is talented and should bounce back from his disastrous debut, but Jones is not the guy to regain confidence against.
WR Julian Edelman – New England Patriots, $7,100
At first glance this looks like a LeGarrette Blount game, and with the Patriots favored at home, it probably is. Yet Miami’s run defense with a healthy Ndamukong Suh is no joke – they graded fifth-best last week — and the patchwork offensive line New England runs behind is a sad one. They graded 30th in run blocking. The Patriots need to establish a lead before they can best deploy their hammer. As we saw on the first drive against the Cardinals, when Edelman caught three targets for 38 yards, New England’s functional slot receiver is Jimmy Garoppolo’s most trusted target.
Danny Amendola ran a higher percentage of slot routes (86) than Edelman (58), but Edelman ran more than 2.5-times as many routes. He caught all six slot targets for 57 yards. Doug Baldwin caught seven of eight slot targets against the Dolphins last week for 76 yards and a score. If Rob Gronkowski sits – and it looks like he will – Martellus Bennett will again be needed to block. Garoppolo didn’t throw any passes from inside the red zone last week, but with a 2.2-second average-time-to-attempt (fifth-fastest), Edelman’s quick-to-uncover routes will figure prominently. If Miami gets behind, they’ll quicken the pace and allow more New England snaps. If they’re ahead, the uber-low-owned Edelman will fly by double-digit targets.
WR Michael Floyd – Arizona Cardinals, $7,000
If you think your work week was tough, imagine dealing with Bruce Arians after losing your nationally televised home opener to a team with one hand tied behind its back. The Cardinals get a chance to right the ship by bombing the Bucs, who quietly play quality run defense. After last week’s nine targets and two touchdowns – and perhaps because he started out on fire last year – Larry Fitzgerald will be popular. We save $400 with the lower-owned Cardinal, who is a larger downfield threat (15.6-yard aDOT versus 8.8-yards) and may have the better cornerback matchup.
Fitzgerald will duel primarily in the slot against rookie first-rounder Vernon Hargreaves III, who allowed only 31 yards on eight targets last week, mostly to Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu. He also dominated both training camp and preseason games. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Floyd has four inches and 30-plus pounds on a late-career Brent Grimes or free agent bust Alterraun Verner. Floyd had just two fewer targets (7) than Fitzgerald last week, connected on a sweet 39-yarder, and saw three looks from the Patriots 12-yard line. He was rolling during the second half of 2015, and after a quiet game against a high-quality defense, Floyd should pick up where he left off.
WR Mike Wallace – Baltimore Ravens, $6,100
Chasing Mike Wallace points feels only slightly more comfortable than doubting Steve Smith Sr. Yet, with the 37-year-old double-Achilles-tear survivor running around like he was iced-up before the game, Wallace is the best way to play a tissue-soft matchup and possible Joe Flacco stack. Smith (45) and Wallace (44) led the Ravens’ receiving corps in snaps, with Kamar Aiken (36) and Breshad Perriman (21) next on the list. Smith turned his team-high eight targets into 19 yards on five catches, with a Jarvis Landry-esque 5.1-yard aDOT. Wallace’s aDOT was 19.4 yards.
With the Browns secondary susceptible to the big play, as we discussed with Flacco, Wallace profiles as the largest beneficiary. It won’t be surprising if last week’s 91 yards and a touchdown (75 yards and the score coming from the no-huddle) are repeated in Cleveland. It also wouldn’t be a shock if he caught two for 29 yards, because…Mike Wallace. Still, he profiles as a fine GPP play and is priced as the 45th-most-expensive wideout. Perriman missed practice on Wednesday with a calf injury and Ravens coaches must have watched tape of Smith. Wallace is currently the most secure piece of the Baltimore passing game and pairs with Flacco for an economical 22.5-percent salary cap hit.
TE Greg Olsen – Carolina Panthers, $7,600
If we are paying up at tight end and shooting for low ownership, Olsen works well. With Kelvin Benjamin back and exceeding expectations on national television, Olsen is no longer the most obvious stacking option for Cam Newton. Throw in a solid-if-unspectacular Week 1 line (9 targets, 7 catches, 70 yards), a tough paper matchup, plus other attractive tight ends in his immediate price range, and we have a formula for a low-owned elite option. Our second-highest-graded passing game tight end last year, and fantasy’s fourth-highest-scoring, Olsen will also benefit from a fast-paced home game.
The 49ers allowed the ninth-fewest points to tight ends in 2015, and the sixth-fewest in Week 1, but they essentially haven’t faced a high-end receiving option at the position since 2014. Heath Miller and Larry Donnell don’t qualify – although each scored against San Francisco — and they were even fortunate enough to play the Bengals after Tyler Eifert was hurt. The Panthers have the highest implied total of the week (29.3) and – especially with 0.5 PPR and no yardage bonus – touchdown equity takes on more importance. A $1,000-cheaper Delanie Walker against a “softer” tight end defense seems like a better play, but probably isn’t.
TE Virgil Green – Denver Broncos, $4,600
We’re going high-low with tight ends this week, although there are several intriguing mid-range options, including Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Eric Ebron, and (heaven help us) Coby Fleener. But Green is the week’s top near-minimum-priced play. He caught all four of his targets against the Panthers, all 10 of them during the preseason (with a touchdown) while running away with the starting job – which is vital in Gary Kubiak’s offense. Green played 71-percent of snaps and the only other tight end who saw the field for Denver was blocker John Phillips.
The Colts allowed 51 yards and a touchdown to Lions tight ends last week, the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends last year, and their injury-ravaged defense is in even worse shape now. Adding Green to a lineup with the week’s chalkiest running back, C.J. Anderson, would be a viable way to differentiate. The Broncos have the sixth-highest team total and Indianapolis can be taken just as easily by air as by land. With a hobbled Demaryius Thomas potentially ceding some red zone looks to Green, the surprisingly athletic tight end – who nearly had one short touchdown a week ago — has two-touchdown upside against a defensive dumpster fire.